Twins Trade Candidate Breakdown: Griffin Jax

[Matthew Lenz]

The Minnesota Twins would be out of their ever-loving minds to trade one of their most valuable arms from an area of need, right? Right?! Not so fast!

Griffin Jax is coming off a career year that saw him throw 71 innings with a 2.03 ERA, a 1.94 FIP and a K-BB rate of 29%. In his third season as a full-time reliever, Jax established himself not only as the best arm in the Twins bullpen but also one of the best bullpen arms in all of baseball. He’s entering his first season as an arbitration-eligible player, and he is projected to make $2.25 million, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. He'll have two more years of team control following the 2025 season.

The Case for Trading Griffin Jax
There is almost always a case to trade away a reliever coming off a strong season, simply because of the volatility of the position. It’s fairly uncommon for a reliever to maintain near-elite production for more than a few years, which Jax already has done, and knowing when their time is up can be next-to-impossible to predict. While relievers of Jax’s caliber don’t grow on trees, they can generally be plucked from other organizations fairly cheaply. Look at the two World Series teams as evidence that good scouting can help teams find productive relievers on the scrap heap. Combining both bullpens, only one reliever was truly homegrown; 11 of them were acquired via free agency, trade, or waivers within the last two years. What’s more, Jax would arguably be the best arm on either team, suggesting that a more balanced bullpen of solid arms may be better than a bullpen with a few top-end arms and sub-optimal ones bridging the gap.

Jax is entering his age-30 season and coming off three seasons in a row of more than 65 innings and appearances. From 2021 to 2024, there were 10 pitchers who threw more than 260 innings of relief, and only Emmanuel Clase, who is four years younger than Jax, averaged 1.6 or more fWAR per season. By nearly every metric you can reference, Griffin Jax is coming off of the best season of his career, and his FIP suggests that he could be even more productive with a better defense supporting him. While that may sound like a reason to keep the righty, you can easily flip that as a reason to sell him: his value may never be higher.

Examining a Potential Trade Market
Another reason to take advantage of Jax’s career year is that, if he were a free agent, he would be the most sought-after right-handed relief arm on the market. Of the high-leverage relief arms available, he’s both coming off the most productive season of the group and the youngest reliever of the group by more than a year. This elevates his value even more, especially considering the three years of cheap team control tied to him. So who needs a relatively young, cheap, near-elite, and controllable reliever? Well, anyone who plans on contending in the 2025 season.

Quite literally, if the Twins made him available, I would expect everyone except the Blue Jays, White Sox, Athletics, Angels, Marlins, and Rockies to pick up the phone. And given his team control, I might not even totally eliminate all of those teams. If we focus on what a return might look like in a Jax deal, I want to compare it to recent deals from both the trade deadline and the previous offseason, with the latter probably being a more realistic comparison. I think the reliever market, especially, varies in the offseason as compared to at the trade deadline, and it was very challenging to find even a somewhat similar trade that moved a reliever of Jax’s caliber in the 2023-2024 offseason.

Last offseason, Aaron Bummer was coming off an unspectacular season with the Chicago White Sox and was dealt to the Atlanta Braves for a bevy of assets. The Braves sent three former first-round picks in Mike Soroka, Jared Shuster, and Braden Shewmake, all of whom had some prospect pedigree but also had question marks at or close to the major-league level. They also added utility infielder Nicky Lopez and pitching prospect Riley Gowens. Essentially, the White Sox got three kind-of intriguing fliers for their middle reliever. Not long afterward, the White Sox dealt a slightly better reliever, Gregory Santos, to the Seattle Mariners for two top-20 organizational prospects in Prelander Berroa and Zach DeLoach, plus a second-round comp pick (#69 overall). The Dodgers’ Caleb Ferguson was coming off back-to-back solid seasons and getting ready for his age-27 season. In February, he was dealt to the New York Yankees for a lesser bullpen piece in Matt Gage and a 19-year-old pitcher who had performed well in the Complex League. 

Turning our sights to the trade deadline, where he had more comparable deals to look at, Lucas Erceg of the Oakland Athletics was dealt to the Kansas City Royals. In return, the Athletics received a top-10 organizational pitching prospect with iffy surface stats but strong peripherals; another struggling top-20 prospect; and their most recent 11th-round pick, who was performing well at High A. The San Diego Padres acquired Jason Adam from the Rays for a top-100 pitching prospect and two top-12 organizational prospects.

Conclusions
I think it’s pretty clear that if the Twins are going to shop Griffin Jax, they would be remiss to do it this offseason. Because of reasons outlined earlier (volatility, dime a dozen, etc.), there just isn’t a strong enough market for a near-elite reliever from November through (say) June. Teams have their sights focused on free agents and acquiring relievers off the scrap heap via waivers, believing in their pitching development system to turn them into productive members of their respective bullpens. The shelves are more bare come mid-to-late July, and that naturally inflates the value of top-end relievers. It’s at that point, if circumstances warrant it, that the Twins should start answering calls on Jax.

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[Cory Engelhardt]

If they were open to trading him, it would be to a team who would want to try him as a starter. So the value would have to be there in my opinion.

If the Twins intend to try him as a starter, I’d keep him.

But you are right, he is coming off a career best year. There is a non zero chance 2024 was his career year.

Id be open to listening, depending on the return

[Otaknam]

No one on this roster should be untouchable. No trade clauses can always be waived for the right price or situation. But trading Jax would weaken the bullpen. A better option is to try him as a starter, where there are a couple of question marks. His 70+ innings in 2024 are almost half of what many starters throw because of the latest philosophy of limiting how many times a starters faces a lineup. And Jax has nasty stuff. Good starters are harder to find than good bullpen arms. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Griffin Jax will be a starter next year for the Twins. He was mentioned prominently in today's Athletic Daily by Eno Sarris as a prime candidate to become a successful starter next year. He has 2 fastballs, 2 breaking balls and a usable change-up and locates them all really well. Sarris mentioned that he has had good health, which is an important indicator of success as a starter.  And Jax wants to start. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

31 minutes ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

Griffin Jax will be a starter next year for the Twins. He was mentioned prominently in today's Athletic Daily by Eno Sarris as a prime candidate to become a successful starter next year. He has 2 fastballs, 2 breaking balls and a usable change-up and locates them all really well. Sarris mentioned that he has had good health, which is an important indicator of success as a starter.  And Jax wants to start. 

Let's say the plan is to move Jax into the rotation. Let's say that happens.

Would that make you more open to trading one of the other starters? Specifically I'll throw out either Ober or even SWR. Just if we are being creative and looking for ideas.

[DJL44]

I agree that the deadline might be the best time to move him. If you are a believer in sell high, buy low then selling high on Jax isn't a bad idea.

[old nurse]

Using the Bummer Trae as an example of what Jax is worth is the best reason not to trade him now. Atlanta cleaned the chaff out of the farm system and threw in a pitcher that hasn’t been the same since his 2 seasons lost to injury 

[beckmt]

If you trade Jax, you might as well hit the soft rebuild and see if Correra will waive a no trade clause (and hope your scouts hit on returns.  It probably means moving Lopez and building what should be the #1 farm system.  to the FO, if you do this you had better be right, not for the Pohlads , but for the new owners who might have a different view of your contributions.

[JD-TWINS]

Ercig’s trade compensation sounds like the above compensation for Bummer, mentioned by old nurse. A trio of ???? for a top end arm is nuts. He’s 30……big deal, former Air For e Academy guy who is in better than great shape. Super disciplined physically & mentally!! He has Team control left.

If part of the argument to trade is that his best is behind him and relievers are a dime a dozen, why would Jax draw any interest?

His chances at being a starter are about 3%. He’s an elite reliever because he can go max effort for up to 25 pitches per outing…….often under 15 pitches. He has a much better chance of becoming the Twins closer v. becoming a starter.

[terrydactyls]

There is an interesting contradiction in this article (if I'm reading it correctly).  In the section where you outline the case for trading Jax, you say that relievers like Jax "don't grow on trees".  But then continue that sentence saying that relievers of Jax caliber "can generally be plucked from other organizations fairly cheaply".    If the second part is accurate, why would the Twins trade him?  They should just keep him and pluck a few more relievers just like him from other teams.

[LambchoP]

Best reliever on our team with three more years of control. Trading him should get someone fired. Especially when you consider the fact we are not signing anyone of value to improve our bullpen, getting rid of our best arm out there would cripple our pen and entire pitching staff. We are going to need a very good pen in '25. We are most likely going to rely on SWR and Festa as our number 4 and 5's. Upon inevitable injury, Mathews will be back up before he's ready. This all means the pen is going to be pitching lots of important innings. We need to add and improve our bullpen, not tear it down. We all saw what a solid relief group can do in DET and CLE last year. With just a few additions we could have an elite group as well.

[nicksaviking]

What exactly are we hoping to get for Jax? Because I don't want more prospects.

[twinfan]

If relievers are a dime a dozen, why didn't we get a couple who could have helped last season? Jax wants to start and the Twins could give him that chance. He'd only need to go 5 innings then we can bring in.....wait, who can we bring in? The Twins could float him to see what they can get but I wouldn't trade him unless the haul is for at least 2 major leaguers and that's doubtful. Then that leaves a hole in our pitching staff. To h-ll with those secondary stats. He's been very good and is expected to continue to be very good.

[AKTwinsFan]

I'd say that he stays and moves up into a starting role. Varland may move into Jaxs role next season. With the money problems I don't see any reason to trade him.

[DJL44]

2 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

What exactly are we hoping to get for Jax?

A young catcher

[nicksaviking]

18 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

A young catcher

A young established catcher? Sure maybe. But I mean, he'd have to be better than Jeffers. 

A prospect catcher? I have no interest. 

[mickster]

I get he wants to start, but his money will be made in the BP - just like Varland.   I would rather trade Dhuran.     How about Dhuran, Lee and Julien for Crochet?   Won't happen in the division, but I would do that trade all day

[DJL44]

16 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

A young established catcher? Sure maybe. But I mean, he'd have to be better than Jeffers. 

A prospect catcher? I have no interest. 

Would you say no to Jax to Boston for Teel?

[nicksaviking]

8 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Would you say no to Jax to Boston for Teel?

I'd say no. Top catching prospects pan out less often than top pitching prospects. But regardless of position, my prerogative is not to trade our controllable assets for prospects.

Replacing Jeffers is nowhere near the top of my priority list either, and the odds that Teel is better than him are probably fairly low, despite the enthusiasm.

[h2oface]

With all the articles about getting rid of our best players, it feels like very few really like their team. I guess that fits right in with the FO and ownership. I can understand it though. This team proved to have no backbone as they barely finished above .500. 

[nicksaviking]

13 minutes ago, h2oface said:

With all the articles about getting rid of our best players, it feels like very few really like their team. I guess that fits right in with the FO and ownership. I can understand it though. This team proved to have no backbone as they barely finished above .500. 

With ownership and the front office in flux, I honestly don't trust any upcoming decisions to be based on winning. As such, I'd rather they sit on their hands, bide their time and let the new people make the calls, whenever that may be.

And yes, I realize that likely means absolutely nothing to the 2025 squad. I think baseball purgatory is our immediate destination regardless of any moves.

[TwinsDr2021]

Trading Jax IMO completely would depend on the return , I agree with others we don't need more prospects.

As for Jax starting, that seems like a joke to me, he hasn't started since 21 and pitched a 100 innings since then either, we don't need another 5 inning starting pitcher or less.

[mluebker]

As long as the answer is, “Don’t trade him,” it sounds good to me.

[TheLeviathan]

The Orioles had one of the worst bullpens in baseball.  Say they came calling for Jax and have Coby Mayo or Enrique Bradfield on the table......the Twins should listen on those offers.

As much as I like Jax, if you can trade a reliever for an every day player you think is going to be good....you do it.

[bean5302]

MLBTR estimates Jax to get $2.6MM. 
Spotrac estimates $2.8MM.
Fangraphs' WAR based model suggests Jax should get $4.6MM.

I think Jax will force arbitration if the Twins are in the traditional estimate range (2.5-3.0ish). I certainly would since he really has nothing to lose at that miniscule salary. If Jax gets closer to Fangraph's model, it has a huge impact on his potential trade value because his Arb2 and Arb3 salary projections would be dramatically higher and Jax would have a lot less surplus value.

Jax's salary also has a big impact on the advantage to the Twins in trading him. At those traditional estimates, moving him makes no difference in the payroll, as the Twins stand to gain $2MM at most in capacity.

So what can the Twins expect to get for a relief pitcher? Regardless of whether or not another team might be interested in re-trying Jax as a starter despite him failing to be serviceable in his first opportunity, trade partners are going to treat Jax as a reliever, which is his known value. Ryan Pressly had only 1.5yrs of team control instead of the 3.0yrs of Jax, but Jax projects to make 5x more money in arbitration and deadline deals are a trade premium. Give the edge to Jax handily by 50%-100% of value maybe? The Twins' return in the Pressly trade was Jorge Alcala (MLB org #7) and Gilberto Celestino (MLB org #23).

Many folks here don't like BaseballTradeValues, but if we use their projections, Jax is worth 40.9MM in surplus based on production of 2.3 WAR per season and a salary projection of like $2.5 -> $4.0 -> $5.5 ($13MM total) which I think is probably absurdly low. The BTV model literally doubled Jax's value after August, 2024 sooooo... anyway.

Personally, I think Jax would probably slot in at like $30MM surplus, and that's an org #2/3-ish, probably a fringe MLB top 50 prospect. If you're looking for a relief pitcher to bring an established, cost controlled MLB talent it will not be a mid/higher starting pitcher or a solid premium position player, at least IMO. The established MLB'er will likely cost more than Jax now or next year as well.

[David Maro]

Payroll,Payroll,Payroll he is payroll friendly why trade the steadfast BP arm they have. For him to be a SP he would have to become a different pitcher. His fastball velocity would be down in order to throw more pitches. He is a solid one inning pitcher who can pitch two days in a row. Don't weaken a BP that has question marks.

[Mike Sixel]

I vote no, in general. I'd have to be OVERWHELMED to do it. 

I actually have reconsidered, and think they SHOULD convert him to a starter. 

[Guest]

I sense desperation....

[Rod Carews Birthday]

I think he has more value to the back of our bullpen than he does as a trade candidate.  Could he start?  Perhaps, but there are more relievers who tried starting and failed than those who succeed.  Again, he is too valuable to mess around with.  Keep him where he is and we will likely be very happy.

 

[Blyleven2011]

Let's examine a Jax trade ...

Let's not ...

We had on paper a very good bullpen  in spring training  , Jax was the only real solid reliever for the season , sands and Duran were good , what happened to the rest of the bullpen story ...

We've been  clamoring for the team  to have a quality bullpen for years   and haven't put one together that can stay healthy ....

If Jax becomes a starter , varland better be as gpod as jax as a replacement  ...

Jax has the makeup in mentality and physical capabilities  to continue doing  what he has done for the past 3 seasons  , he isn't done yet  and who knows  he could have his career year next season  ...

Let's please look at examining other players that don't fit into our long term future  , not our best ...