Minnesota Twins Arbitration Dilemma: Three Fringe Relievers

[Matthew Lenz]

The Twins have arbitration decisions to make on three should-have-been key relievers who combined for just 34 ⅓ innings for them in 2024. Should the organization tender contracts to any of these three or let them walk to free agency?

Image courtesy of © Matt Krohn-Imagn Images (left), Jesse Johnson-Imagn Images (top right), Matt Blewett-Imagn Images (bottom right)

MLB Trade Rumors projects Brock Stewart, Michael Tonkin, and Justin Topa to get $800,000, $1.5 million, and $1.3 million, respectively, via arbitration this winter. Stewart and Topa were limited in 2024 due to injuries, but each has a track record of being reliable relievers when they've been healthy. On the other hand, Tonkin provided a full season of work with the New York Mets and New York Yankees before finishing with the Twins. Each of the relievers took a different route to the Twins, as Topa was part of the return from the Jorge Polanco trade; Stewart signed as a free agent in the middle of the 2022 season; and Tonkin was poached off waivers from the Yankees. At relatively cheap costs, should the Twins tender any or all of these relievers? Let's look into both sides of the arguments.

Why They Should Be Tendered
At just $800,000, you can't find a cheaper player than what Stewart is projected to receive. While he wasn't productive in 15 ⅔ big-league innings in 2024, we have a larger (and healthier) body of work from 2023 that suggests he can still be a very good right-handed reliever. In 43 ⅓ innings, Stewart has pitched to a 2.28 ERA supported by a 2.78 FIP, with a 22.7 K-BB% and 86.3% strand rate, which is good for fifth in baseball among pitchers who have thrown 40 or more innings.

There's nothing we can garner from Topa’s 2024 season, but if you wanted to try: he performed well in 2 ⅓ innings over three appearances at the end of the season. Topa was one of two major-league pieces acquired in the Jorge Polanco trade, and with the Mariners in 2023, he posted a 2.61 ERA, 3.15 FIP and 15.4 K-BB%. His low-90s sinker, which is his primary offering, was a plus pitch for him with a run value of 10 and sets up his sweeper. Entering the offseason fully healthy from a non-arm injury, I wouldn’t be surprised if he can bounce back to his 2023 self.

Old friend Tonkin re-joined the Twins at the end of August, and quickly became one of their most reliable arms. While his 2024 stats aren’t anything to write home about, two straight seasons of roughly 80 quality innings are nothing to be scoffed at, either. His two primary offerings, a mid-90s four-seam fastball and sharp slider, induced a combined .215 and .321 opponent batting average and slugging percentage, respectively, and he generated a 78th-percentile chase rate between all his pitches.

From a roster construction standpoint, the Twins need relievers, and each of these present cheap options to bridge the gap between the starters and the back end of the bullpen. They are each fly-ball pitchers which is something to consider, at least in the short term, given the number of question marks surrounding the defensive viability at each of the infield positions.

Why They Shouldn’t Be Tendered
Before getting into each reliever individually, be reminded that relievers are a very volatile group and it’s always hard to predict when, or how fast, the fall in production comes. Moreover, each of these relievers are entering their age-33 or older season, making the likelihood of regression even higher. And lastly, each of these relievers are right-handed, with traditional splits. Those alone are arguments as to why none of these fringe relievers should be tendered, before we even address their warts.

Alright, with that out of the way…let’s look at each of these pitchers individually.

Stewart is returning from arthroscopic shoulder surgery, meaning there is a very real chance that we’ve seen the last of a serviceable Stewart. In a small sample of work, he also allowed a lot of hard contact in the air with a .407 opponent slugging percentage.

I’m less concerned about Topa’s injury, given that it’s to his lower body, but it can’t totally be ignored—especially considering he basically just missed all of 2024. For what it’s worth, Edwin Díaz returned from a patellar tendon injury this year and experienced a slight dip in performance from 2022. While these players are in completely different echelons, Topa can’t afford much of a decline in performance given his age and arbitration price point.

Tonkin is the most expensive arm of this group and, similar to Stewart, he allowed a lot of hard contact in the air to the pull side. While most of his surface-level and peripheral stats suggest the last two seasons weren’t a fluke, ZiPS projection models don’t see him as a serviceable reliever in 2025 and beyond.

What I Would Do
I don’t think the Twins should keep all three relievers, given that they need to add another left-handed reliever to go alongside Kody Funderburk. And I don’t think any of these relievers are clear choices above the rest, so I am going to go with the two cheapest options, who also provide the most upside. Brock Stewart, whose shoulder should be mostly (if not fully) recovered by the time Spring Training rolls around, was very good for the 2023 Twins. Tendering him for less than a million dollars is a pretty low-risk, high reward move.

The same line of reasoning can be used for Topa, but I also want to see some (hopefully) positive return from the Polanco trade and I’d think the Derek Falvey would feel the same way. That leaves Tonkin as the odd man out as I’d repurpose his $1.5 million for a lefty reliever.

What do you think? Who, if anybody, from this group would you tender a contract to?

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[bean5302]

Stewart is at league minimum. If the Twins think he's better than a league minimum bargain bin reliever (I suspect they do), it's an easy yes.

Topa at $1.3MM. Again, this is very close to league minimum. Spotrac predicts $1.8MM which gets a little tougher to justify, but they also have his FA market value at 2yrs $8.6MM. I think Topa probably benefitted from pitching in Seattle with his xFIP being 3.55 vs. his ERA 2.61 or FIP at 3.15. Topa's had a very, very long injury history. He doesn't miss a ton of bats, and his stuff is pretty average. Given he's now entering his age 34 season. I'd non-tender.

Tonkin pitched a full year and every single time he hit the waiver wire, he was quickly snapped right back up. He switched up to a 4 seamer and missed more bats this past year, and his Stuff+ was solidly above average. Estimated at $1.5MM, I think Tonkin is a good tender option. He's been durable, and his stuff looked adequate for a pretty low price. Spotrac estimates $1.9MM, with a free agent market value of 2yrs $9.3MM. He's going to be on somebody's 26 man MLB roster.

[Mike Sixel]

Meh. Topa is a sunk cost. I'd tender Stewart, but I don't care if they keep the other two or not. 

[FlyingFinn]

Stewart, absolutely (such potential), and Topa, yes. 

[Fatbat]

Tender all 3 we never have enough pitching. 

[thelanges5]

Lefty reliever for 1.5? Agree with Fatbat - stockpile the arms. 

[tony&rodney]

Keep Stewart and Tonkin. The money won't hurt. Non-tendering Topa is confession for Falvey, painful and easy at the same time.

[Rosterman]

Stewart, like Thielbar, could be brought back on a minor league contract with an invite to spring training. No need to keep either on the 40-man.

Topa gets resigned just to make a horrible trade and expenditure look okay (although the Twins may win out if Gonzalez makes the team in 2026). We didn't see enough of him, and a comprable relief arm will cost about the same (considering all the flyers the Twins took last season).

Tonkin did little upon his return.

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

5 minutes ago, Rosterman said:

Stewart, like Thielbar, could be brought back on a minor league contract with an invite to spring training. No need to keep either on the 40-man.

Topa gets resigned just to make a horrible trade and expenditure look okay (although the Twins may win out if Gonzalez makes the team in 2026). We didn't see enough of him, and a comprable relief arm will cost about the same (considering all the flyers the Twins took last season).

Tonkin did little upon his return.

 

 

100 percent someone signs Stewart to a major league deal if the Twins don't. 

[Parfigliano]

Keep Topa and Stewart.  Bye bye Tonkin.

[Doctor Wu]

There are the obvious injury concerns with Stewart and Topa, but I think it's a no-brainer to bring them both back if they appear (somewhat) healthy. Who knows? It's such a roll of the dice with these relief pitchers. But as Fatbat and others have said; a team can never have enough relief pitchers. If the cost isn't much, sign 'em all!

[Matthew Lenz]

12 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Meh. Topa is a sunk cost. I'd tender Stewart, but I don't care if they keep the other two or not. 

I don't totally disagree with this either. I like Stewart but could go either way on the other two 

[Matthew Lenz]

9 hours ago, Fatbat said:

Tender all 3 we never have enough pitching. 

That's typically my motto too but we have to think about the roster and financial constraints. Right now the Twins only have two lefty relieves in their top two levels assuming Headrick is going to continue working out of the bullpen when he's with the Twins. They need a left-handed reliever and I don't know if they have to roster room or "cap space" to do it if they tender all three of these guys.

[Matthew Lenz]

9 hours ago, thelanges5 said:

Lefty reliever for 1.5? Agree with Fatbat - stockpile the arms. 

They have other arbitration and roster  decisions to make where they could use more funds for a lefty

[Fatbat]

8 minutes ago, Matthew Lenz said:

That's typically my motto too but we have to think about the roster and financial constraints. Right now the Twins only have two lefty relieves in their top two levels assuming Headrick is going to continue working out of the bullpen when he's with the Twins. They need a left-handed reliever and I don't know if they have to roster room or "cap space" to do it if they tender all three of these guys.

How do 3 guys taking up $4M in cap space clog up payroll  let alone the 40 man roster?  2 of them coming back from injury but when healthy, produce +WAR.  How many Jeff Hoffmans do you want playing elsewhere?

[Trov]

I expect they will tender Stewart and Topa.  I am not high on Stewart as most are on here.  Mainly because in his whole career he has had only 1 good stretch of games.  It was a great stretch but very short overall. It was 27 great innings.  Josh Staumont had a good, not great 20 innings last year and no one is saying lets bring him back.  Also, Stewart has never been healthy long enough to know what he can do long term.  Every time he seems to struggle it is always health.  Never pitched more than 34 innings in a season.

Topa had 1 good season at age 32 and missed all of last year with a knee issue.  I still think he gets a shot to come back on cheap.  

Tonkin has bounced around too much to offer arb too.  

[Blyleven2011]

I'm not sure what to write only we are in for a disappointment either way , FO has never been able to please the fans  ...

[Matthew Lenz]

1 hour ago, Fatbat said:

How do 3 guys taking up $4M in cap space clog up payroll  let alone the 40 man roster?  2 of them coming back from injury but when healthy, produce +WAR.  How many Jeff Hoffmans do you want playing elsewhere?

We could go back and forth and cherry pick names on both sides. The Twins have acquired PLENTY of relievers who have gone pear shape in the Falvine era. At the time of being released with the Twins, Jeff Hoffman was coming off a healthy, solid (albeit only 0.2 fWAR) season and was four years younger the youngest name in this article...seems a little apples and oranges to me. You only get 26 active roster spots so taking a chance on three guys who profile similarly is not the smartest of moves, IMO.

[Matthew Lenz]

35 minutes ago, Blyleven2011 said:

I'm not sure what to write only we are in for a disappointment either way , FO has never been able to please the fans  ...

That's a fan issue, not an FO issue. The Front Office is by no means perfect, but given the constraints they're working under they've done a very good job.

[DJL44]

11 hours ago, Fatbat said:

Tender all 3 we never have enough pitching. 

I agree. The Twins are quite unlikely to find anyone better for the cost. It wasn't mentioned in the article, but Topa still has options which means he can shuttle back and forth to AAA if necessary. It's more likely than not that 2 out of 3 are competent relievers next season. That's a bargain for a total cost of $4M with a one-year commitment. That is less than the cost of one competent reliever in free agency (the Reds signed Emilio Pagan for 2 years $16M).

[stringer bell]

There’s lots of room on the 40-man, but I’d still non-tender Tonkin and offer him a minor league contract.
 

Stewart and Topa are health issues, but given their (comparatively) meager salaries, they should be tendered. 

[TopGunn#22]

We're throwing darts at a dartboard here but my dart lands on Stewart.  He's got the best stuff of the three.  I'd spend what it took to add Aroldis Chapman or AJ Puk and settle on quality.  Rookie relief pitchers will only cost the MLB minimum of about $800,000.  Stack up quality with Duran, Jax, Chapman/Puk and Sands (maybe Alcala).  Give Varland the 2 innings at a time role and with Stewart you have 7 guys.  Funderburk makes 8 and I'd expect Jovanni Moran as #9.  

There are a LOT of guys currently in our minor league system who could fill in, or guys we invite to camp (like a Jeff Hoffman type).  So I say Stewart, but target a veteran LH who brings a track record of quality like Chapman or Puk.   

[jmlease1]

I think it's Stewart & Topa, let Tonkin go.

Stewart & Topa both have the same problem: injury. Which is why they're cheap. But with Sands and Alcala having good seasons last year the Twins are in a position where they don't need to rely on having both of these guys all season for high leverage roles. They'd be more like veteran depth where if they're healthy can contribute to an excellent bullpen and if they're not they're on the IL and we move along. Both have higher upside than Tonkin, but are higher risk due to injury.

Tonkin is decent, but has never shown that he should be counted on to be anything more than a middle relief option. he's Just Another Guy as a reliever, one of many that float around the league for 5-10 years and one year put up at ERA+ of 115 and the next might be down around 90. he's also going to be 35 for the 2025 season. Pass and as many have said: put the money saved towards the best LH reliever they can find, so we're not totally reliant on Funderburk, Moran, Headrick, etc

I like a bullpen of Duran, Jax, Sands, Alcala, Stewart/Topa (if I presume only one will be healthy at a time, I'm less likely to be disappointed), Varland, LHP To Be Named Later, and Funderburk. If Funderburk starts the season in AAA because both Stewart and Topa start the season healthy and ready? Oh, darn.

[JD-TWINS]

11 hours ago, thelanges5 said:

Lefty reliever for 1.5? Agree with Fatbat - stockpile the arms. 

I think the $1.5M is meant as a portion (or should be) of a lefty’s salary.

Any updates on Moran’s health?……he is as reliable as Funderburk ……not very. But he is a controllable lefty option.

It appears that the gang at TD have completely written off Thielbar - right? What if they offered him the $1.75M or so available for a lefty? Too ineffective & inconsistent to consider?…….probably a YES from me.

Can they go 100% right handed? Is Blewett an option for the ‘25 staff?

Stewart - Topa - Sands - Alcala - Henriquez - Jax - Winder - Blewett - Duran - Paddack - Varland ……..11 righties that ultimately need to add up to 7 effective guys, with some unknown lefty in last 2 months (worst case)…….Raya in September?

[Fatbat]

1 hour ago, Matthew Lenz said:

We could go back and forth and cherry pick names on both sides. The Twins have acquired PLENTY of relievers who have gone pear shape in the Falvine era. At the time of being released with the Twins, Jeff Hoffman was coming off a healthy, solid (albeit only 0.2 fWAR) season and was four years younger the youngest name in this article...seems a little apples and oranges to me. You only get 26 active roster spots so taking a chance on three guys who profile similarly is not the smartest of moves, IMO.

All good points but the salaries are so low that if you DFA Tonkin or Stewart, someone will claim them. Topa is only a 40 man issue and will be off that if he goes back on the 60 Il list. 

[Fatbat]

42 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

I think the $1.5M is meant as a portion (or should be) of a lefty’s salary.

Any updates on Moran’s health?……he is as reliable as Funderburk ……not very. But he is a controllable lefty option.

It appears that the gang at TD have completely written off Thielbar - right? What if they offered him the $1.75M or so available for a lefty? Too ineffective & inconsistent to consider?…….probably a YES from me.

Can they go 100% right handed? Is Blewett an option for the ‘25 staff?

Stewart - Topa - Sands - Alcala - Henriquez - Jax - Winder - Blewett - Duran - Paddack - Varland ……..11 righties that ultimately need to add up to 7 effective guys, with some unknown lefty in last 2 months (worst case)…….Raya in September?

Several guys in the high minors that may be ready for an injury call up. Canterino, Priellip, Raya etc

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, JD-TWINS said:

It appears that the gang at TD have completely written off Thielbar - right? What if they offered him the $1.75M or so available for a lefty? Too ineffective & inconsistent to consider?…….probably a YES from me.

Thielbar's best option might be to come back on a minor league contract with opt-outs and play for the Saints until something opens up on an MLB roster.

[AKTwinsFan]

For the price(s) it's likely to be all returning. Possibly used for trades if needed. Some relief pitchers are gonna be 10x as much for equal or a little better production value.

[Jim wyllie]

I say keep them all, thielbar will be gone that opens up a spot to bring in a lefty reliever also they could move Ocala to make room too

[Mike Sixel]

2 minutes ago, Jim wyllie said:

I say keep them all, thielbar will be gone that opens up a spot to bring in a lefty reliever also they could move Ocala to make room too

Why would they trade alcala?