Minnesota Twins Arbitration Dilemma: Three Fringe Relievers

[DocBauer]

Stewart is a no brainer. He's inexpensive, and absolutely one of the top 3 arms in the Twins pen when healthy. The surgery he had at the end of 2024 was supposedly a clean up procedure and not a serious one. If that's true, and he's only used 1 IP at a time, could he be nurtured for 50 innings? If so, HUGE win for the pen.

Topa's track record is a bit spotty with his one season being 2023. But that was only a year ago. And he's going to cost little more than a rookie level replacement. I think you bet on the whole offseason to make sure his knee is 100%. I think you've got, potentially, a really good 6th inning guy for not a lot, with the potential he might even help in the 7th. And he's got at least one option still left to play with.

Not sure why everyone is so down on Tonkin. Age? Memory bias of his time with the Twins when he first came up? He was very solid as a long/middle man with the Braves in 2023 when he came back to MLB. His overall 2024 numbers, split between 3 teams, were extremely close to his 2023 numbers, even better in a few instances. I'm less excited about bringing him back, but he's been a pretty reliable middle man the past couple of years, and those guys who can throw more than one inning at a time have value as well. If's not offered, he'll be snapped up in a moment by someone for exactly that role. 

I know there's a $ crunch here and at some point, a hard decision or two might have to be made. But as pointed out by others, these 3 combined would cost about $4.5M or less. That's a lot of inexpensive depth and I'd sure hate to lose any depth for such a small $ amount, but it could happen. Honestly, I might be more worried about a 40  man spot right now.

Let's say they're all 3 brought back: Duran, Jax, Stewart, Sands, Alcala, Varland, Topa, Tonkin from the RH side with Duarte, Henriquez, Winder, MAYBE Canterino for  additional depth, and Kyle Bischoff looks like he might help and what about someone like Blewitt coming back? Not to mention any other reclamation projects that are always brought in with MILB deals. 

I feel pretty good about the RH side.

From the LH side I think we'd all feel better if trade or FA could bring in just ONE solid, dependable arm we could count on. From there Funderburk, Headrick, and the returning Moran all offer depth and a possible second option. And maybe the $ is going to be so tight they have no choice to let one of these 3 in the OP walk. But it sure seems like they should be affordable to keep.
 

[DJL44]

17 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

Let's say they're all 3 brought back: Duran, Jax, Stewart, Sands, Alcala, Varland, Topa, Tonkin from the RH side with Duarte, Henriquez, Winder, MAYBE Canterino for  additional depth, and Kyle Bischoff looks like he might help and what about someone like Blewitt coming back? Not to mention any other reclamation projects that are always brought in with MILB deals. 

I feel pretty good about the RH side.

Henriquez and Winder are out of options.

[jmlease1]

1 hour ago, DocBauer said:

Not sure why everyone is so down on Tonkin. Age? Memory bias of his time with the Twins when he first came up? He was very solid as a long/middle man with the Braves in 2023 when he came back to MLB. His overall 2024 numbers, split between 3 teams, were extremely close to his 2023 numbers, even better in a few instances. I'm less excited about bringing him back, but he's been a pretty reliable middle man the past couple of years, and those guys who can throw more than one inning at a time have value as well. If's not offered, he'll be snapped up in a moment by someone for exactly that role. 

because he's turning 35 this month and has never really had a particularly standout season his whole career? He was pretty good this year, He was decent in 2015 in limited innings. But his career ERA+ is 101, his career FIP is 4.24. he gets Ks, but also gives up hits & walks: his WHIP this year of 1.261 is right in line with his career WHIP of 1.296. he's just not all that dominant and hasn't shown a high ceiling. he's been fine? But not really much better than say, Staumont, who no one will really miss.

he's not bad or anything, just hard to see him as being worth tendering. I'd rather see Varland in that spot.

[DocBauer]

22 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

because he's turning 35 this month and has never really had a particularly standout season his whole career? He was pretty good this year, He was decent in 2015 in limited innings. But his career ERA+ is 101, his career FIP is 4.24. he gets Ks, but also gives up hits & walks: his WHIP this year of 1.261 is right in line with his career WHIP of 1.296. he's just not all that dominant and hasn't shown a high ceiling. he's been fine? But not really much better than say, Staumont, who no one will really miss.

he's not bad or anything, just hard to see him as being worth tendering. I'd rather see Varland in that spot.

Oh, I think Varland is a shoe-in for the pen. I have a strong belief in his future there. And I don't think Tonkin is any sort of MUST for the season, but he was much better than Staumont wouldn't you say? And an inexpensive, solid inning guys in the pen doesn't sound bad, and it's something Rocco likes to have. 

I'm completely fine going a different direction and saving an extra $1M by not keeping him. I just think he's gotr some value in that middle relief role as a veteran for less than $2M. 

[cmoss84]

When is the deadline to sign these guys? Sorry if I missed it in the OP. I think it might be 11/22. 

I'd look in FA first, and act accordingly after that...if there is time to do so. 

[mluebker]

It’s always,”when they've been healthy,” with the Twins. I keep trying to decide whether it’s a great strategy because some of their reclamation projects actually work out or they’re just cheap.

[old nurse]

Brock Stewart has pitched in 34 games at the mlb level the last 2 years. That is 34 more games than he pitched in the 3 years prior to that, what makes people think it is going to be different? Topa had one overworked year after years of injuries and ends up injured. Funny how that woks. Yet with all the access to analytics this front office doesn’t seem to track it. The last several years seems like the Twins have been near the top in days on the d.l. When the frugal franchises do not consider days lost on the dl that should be a flag. It is not a checkered one.

Tonkin would be the durable low leverage guy, he can eat a couple innings and not miss a week recovering. He had a minimal contract last year. 1 million per b ref.  He was never out of work,, bur was well traveled. I do not know why anyone would think he should get that high of raise. Not that I begrudge him the money. One should respect the work and persistence of Tonkin to make it back to mlb baseball and thrive. 

[stringer bell]

On 11/9/2024 at 6:05 AM, old nurse said:

Brock Stewart has pitched in 34 games at the mlb level the last 2 years. That is 34 more games than he pitched in the 3 years prior to that, what makes people think it is going to be different? Topa had one overworked year after years of injuries and ends up injured. Funny how that woks. Yet with all the access to analytics this front office doesn’t seem to track it. The last several years seems like the Twins have been near the top in days on the d.l. When the frugal franchises do not consider days lost on the dl that should be a flag. It is not a checkered one.

Tonkin would be the durable low leverage guy, he can eat a couple innings and not miss a week recovering. He had a minimal contract last year. 1 million per b ref.  He was never out of work,, bur was well traveled. I do not know why anyone would think he should get that high of raise. Not that I begrudge him the money. One should respect the work and persistence of Tonkin to make it back to mlb baseball and thrive. 

The projected contracts of all three guys are pretty minimal.  If healthy, Topa and Stewart are well worth the investment, even if they aren’t available for the entire schedule.

Tonkin, OTOH, is quite replaceable, probably one of 20 guys who cycle through multiple teams, get DFA’d and claimed. I don’t think he’s worth rostering. 

[old nurse]

2 hours ago, stringer bell said:

The projected contracts of all three guys are pretty minimal.  If healthy, Topa and Stewart are well worth the investment, even if they aren’t available for the entire schedule.

Tonkin, OTOH, is quite replaceable, probably one of 20 guys who cycle through multiple teams, get DFA’d and claimed. I don’t think he’s worth rostering. 

If healthy is a mighty big if.as their last few years would suggest the odds are against the being healthy part. The unexpected injuries are one thing, but a track record of it should not be part of the plan of a contendending team. 

It did seem like the cycled through 20 guys last year. So far the only one they kept is Tonkin