Does This Future Hall of Famer Fit Into Minnesota’s First Base Plans?

[Cody Christie]

Carlos Santana was the Twins’ biggest free agent signing leading into last season. First base might provide the front office with an opportunity to go in a new direction for 2025.

Image courtesy of Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports

As the dust settles on a lackluster 2024 season, the Minnesota Twins face a critical decision at first base. For a team aiming to contend in 2025, first base was a glaring weak spot in the lineup, and while Carlos Santana brought some stability defensively, his bat didn’t keep pace with the team’s offensive needs. Enter Paul Goldschmidt — a potential free agent target who could be a game-changer for the Twins as they seek to bounce back.

When the Twins signed Santana ahead of the 2024 season, they were betting on a veteran presence to anchor the defense and bring some consistency to the lineup. Defensively, Santana more than lived up to his billing. At 38 years old, Santana was solid as a rock at first base. His ability to scoop up errant throws, command the infield, and provide Gold Glove-level defense gave the Twins much-needed confidence in their infield alignment. Santana’s experience was particularly valuable given the youth movement elsewhere, with players like Royce Lewis and Brooks Lee still developing their defensive chops.

However, Santana’s struggles at the plate quickly became impossible to ignore. The Twins knew they weren’t getting the same player who hit 30+ home runs in his prime, but Santana’s .238/.328/.420 (.748) slash line fell far below what the team needed from a run-producing position. He managed 23 home runs, and though his walk rate remained solid, he often found himself unable to square up pitches he would have punished earlier in his career. A team built on power and patience at the plate couldn’t afford to have such a steep drop-off in production from its first baseman.

Paul Goldschmidt is a name that should be at the top of the Twins’ offseason wish list. The 2022 National League MVP is likely to test free agency, and the Twins could be one of the teams looking to make a serious push for his services. 

Offensively, although Goldschmidt is coming off a down year (which might help put him in Minnesota's realistic price range), his track record puts Santana's to shame. Goldy has a 139 career OPS+ and was at 120 or higher in four straight seasons prior to 2024. Santana, conversely, has a 114 OPS+ in his career and hasn't finished above 109 since 2019. While Goldschmidt's production this past year was disappointing, and concerning in light of his age, he posted solid contact metrics per Statcast and ended the year on a high note. 

Goldschmidt is more than just a bat. He has elite defensive skills, which would continue the defensive excellence the Twins had with Santana while giving the offense the boost it so desperately needs. During his career, he has five seasons with 3 OAA or more at first base. During his illustrious career, he’s also won four Gold Gloves and five Silver Sluggers. Adding Goldschmidt to the middle of the Twins’ lineup could provide a veteran presence that the team missed in 2024, especially during their historic collapse. 

Of course, landing a player with Goldschmidt’s resume will be challenging. He’s coming off a down year with the Cardinals, so that might limit his interest. But if the Twins want to move past their disappointing 2024 campaign and return to the postseason, first base is one of the first places to start. Goldschmidt represents the type of upgrade that could help the Twins turn a corner and provide a veteran leader to guide their younger stars.

As the offseason begins, the Twins’ front office must carefully evaluate their options at first base. While Santana’s defense was a welcome addition in 2024, his offensive decline made it clear that the team can’t afford to run it back with the same plan. First base is a position built for power, and the Twins need to upgrade if they hope to compete in 2025.

Minnesota has rotated through subpar options at first base for multiple seasons, and it’s time for that trend to end. Alex Kirilloff and Donovan Solano filled the role in recent seasons, but they have been more role players than providing a roster-changing presence. Goldschmidt can potentially elevate the Twins’ lineup and stabilize the team offensively and defensively. 

Should the Twins target Goldschmidt? Are there other first-base options on the team’s free-agent list? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

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[Parfigliano]

No no no.  Last year his .716 OPS was his worst career wise by 100 points.  He's a shell of what he was and never will be again.  Last thing TC needs is more pretending they are making team improving moves by signing has beens.

 

[High heat]

Yes he is a solid veteran option.  If he is reasonably priced and is much better than anyone we currently have in our roster.  
 

Im guessing he is going to get more $ than the Twins are willing to spend.  

[MinnesotaTwins26]

It makes more sense for the Twins to re-sign Carlos Santana instead of adding Goldschmidt.

[bean5302]

By my estimates, the Twins have about -1MM in payroll capacity this coming year. The Twins outbidding the market for Goldschmidt seems like a pipe dream to me. 

Considering the recent performance for the two players, I'd be awfully surprised to see Goldschmidt under $10MM, and I'd also be surprised if the Cardinals didn't try to bring him back at a figure like that.

a38 (2024) Carlos Santana
bWAR 3.0*, (0.1), 1.1, 2.7
fWAR 2.1*, (0.8), 0.9, 1.5
*Multiplied by 2.7 to adjust for season length.

a37 (2025) Paul Goldschmidt
bWAR 6.0, 7.7, 3.4, 1.3
fWAR 4.8, 6.8, 3.4, 1.1

[thelanges5]

Probably be too expensive for the Twins. 
 

Ryan O’hearn is a lefty but may be in the price range if the Os don’t pick up his option. 

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, High heat said:

Yes he is a solid veteran option.  If he is reasonably priced and is much better than anyone we currently have in our roster.  

Miranda has a better projection for next season than Goldschmidt.

[High heat]

7 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Miranda has a better projection for next season than Goldschmidt.

Did you watch the last 2 months?  No power and very week contact Not to mention the defense at 1B.

[CRF]

To tell you the truth...I don't want Santana back, or signing Goldy. 

[Mike Sixel]

Why not post articles saying they should trade for ohtani? Seriously. They aren't signing expensive free agents while for sale. Seriously. 

[DocBauer]

Never an OPS below .810 in his entire career until 2023. (Not including .808 in a brief rookie appearance). But that .810 career low was followed by a very significant drop to .716 in 2024.

At his age, has time simply caught him? Or similar to Santana last season, does he have another solid year left? 

He's tantalizing enough, IMO, that I'd snag him if his situation turns out to be similar to Cruz a couple years ago where the market wasn't very good and nobody seemed to want to go in deep on him. So the Twins got Cruz for around $14-15M IIRC. If the market for Goldschmidt follows similar form...and it easily could considering age, down 2024, and revenue drops...the Twins could move Paddack and save around $7.5M. That's about half of what this scenario says he could be had for in an ideal situation. That means adding another $7-8M to the payroll to make it happen, and/or the removal of additional payroll to compensate

Let's not forget, we might want to more than just a 1B. We might want and OF or a pen arm as well. And even on the low $ end, that's still additional payroll cost.

So I don't see it happening. But it would surely only be a 1year deal, so that shouldn't affect any sale of the team. But would the Pohlad's agree to actually raise payroll a little bit to add a potentially big bat like this? I'm betting a slim and borderline none chance.

But I can at least see a scenario where it's not oit of the question.

[sweetmusicviola16]

This isn't happening due to $$$$$. I'm not in favor of a Santana return either. He had a great June stretch and otherwise mediocre 2024. Plus he's probably not signing for a paycut. I would guess a role signing and some sort of platoon mix. I honestly don't see any big increase in payroll coming. 

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, High heat said:

Did you watch the last 2 months?  No power and very week contact Not to mention the defense at 1B.

Sure. Did you watch the week he had 12 hits in a row? Miranda's defense at 1B was comparable to Goldschmidt's in 2024. I'll bet on the player 10 years younger for 2025. Upgrade a different part of the roster.

[bean5302]

Not sure why there's such a strong debate on how great Goldschmidt is going to be since he's going to cost more than the Twins will pay. 

Goldschmidt has run an xwOBA extremely similar to his actual wOBA across his career and his xwOBA was .333 last year, which is 23pts higher than his actual numbers. Goldy also finished the season strong with a .271/.319/.480 wRC+ 120 2nd half and he had solid exit velocity (top 8% in hard hit rate) and barrel rates across the season.

All things considered, Goldy was probably a wRC+ 120ish hitter last year without luck issues, and there's good reason to believe he'll be well above average at the plate. Of course; doesn't matter since the Twins are not going to be in the running at Goldschmidt's price tag. I also don't think Goldschmidt would be remotely interested in coming to the Baldelli Broken Macro show where he'd have the crap platooned out of him and only get 400 PA max because he's not a switch hitter, and everybody knows platooning is a concrete guarantee for success.... ahem.

Finally, like @DJL44 is saying, I'm not sure he'll be more valuable overall than Miranda at 1B (though we have no DH so there's that issue, too, LOL)

[Jocko87]

31 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Finally, like @DJL44 is saying, I'm not sure he'll be more valuable overall than Miranda at 1B (though we have no DH so there's that issue, too, LOL)

No DH is the last problem to solve around here.  Hiring a DH only player would be a tough fit, although if Goldy was just a DH he could probably be pretty decent for one more season.

No fit.

[FargoFanMan]

If you have an open mind and do the math this makes sense. You trade Vazquez for whatever and eat $5M of his contract. You trade Paddack for whatever and eat $3M. You trade Castro at his peak since this isn’t a video game and you get a decent prospect and maybe a BP arm. That saves you roughly $6M. All of a sudden you’ve got about $15M to work with. You need an anchor at 1B and let’s be honest, You don’t want Miranda as your everyday 1B. Can you get Goldy for 2 years and 12-14M with an option in year 2? He’s the perfect fit. No he’s not an MVP candidate anymore but he provides leadership and stability like Santana did. They’ve got other guys to be backups. Castro was great but he’s starting to cost some money and let’s flip him while he’s worth something. Goldy is what this team needs in more ways than one. 

[Doctor Gast]

Absolutely not. FA are expensive, any extra money we have should be spent on extending our own reasonable players not filling FAs pockets. If we spin the wheel on high-stakes FAs, we'll have nothing left over to extend our sure bet players. 

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, Jocko87 said:

No DH is the last problem to solve around here.  Hiring a DH only player would be a tough fit, although if Goldy was just a DH he could probably be pretty decent for one more season.

No fit.

The Twins would probably be using Yunior Severino as their DH as it currently stands. Maybe you're comfortable with that, but I find that to be one of the biggest, if not the biggest, outright hole in the roster at the moment.

Absolutely no way Goldschmidt would become our DH based on the other issues, though. That was just a note of what a terrible situation the Twins are in regarding the spot.

[TheLeviathan]

I'm not sure they can afford him.  I am sure they shouldn't sign him even if they can.

[Jocko87]

46 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

The Twins would probably be using Yunior Severino as their DH as it currently stands. Maybe you're comfortable with that, but I find that to be one of the biggest, if not the biggest, outright hole in the roster at the moment.

Absolutely no way Goldschmidt would become our DH based on the other issues, though. That was just a note of what a terrible situation the Twins are in regarding the spot.

On the contrary, if your hole is DH you are in a good spot. Easiest spot to fill.

Course, it kinda requires production at the other spots which is a much bigger issue than who gets the DH ABs.

[Vanimal46]

7 hours ago, Parfigliano said:

No no no.  Last year his .716 OPS was his worst career wise by 100 points.  He's a shell of what he was and never will be again.  Last thing TC needs is more pretending they are making team improving moves by signing has beens.

 

This is actually a classic Twins signing. A couple years removed from his last All-Star appearance nearing the end of his career. If he’s available in January I bet we will be in on a 1 year contract. 

[Vanimal46]

Falvey has shown time and time again he’s looking for the bargains in free agency. Early in the offseason is dedicated to waiver wire pickups and fringe 40 man roster acquisitions. If any major acquisitions are made it’s in January or later. 

[Parfigliano]

11 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

Falvey has shown time and time again he’s looking for the bargains in free agency. Early in the offseason is dedicated to waiver wire pickups and fringe 40 man roster acquisitions. If any major acquisitions are made it’s in January or later. 

Chipin bark off an old tree

 

[Joe A. Preusser]

Santana was a good sign last year.  He had a great year, should win a gold glove and hit plenty enough to justify the contract.  

Would I love an .850 OPS from our 1B?  You bet.  

Was Santana a great signing?  YES.

Is Goldschmidt going to put up an .850 OPS next year?  Unlikely.

I'm fine not bring Santana back, but don't hate on his season.  It was very good, and that's before you look at clubhouse presence and other intangibles.  Give the man his due.

[stringer bell]

1 minute ago, Joe A. Preusser said:

Santana was a good sign last year.  He had a great year, should win a gold glove and hit plenty enough to justify the contract.  

Would I love an .850 OPS from our 1B?  You bet.  

Was Santana a great signing?  YES.

Is Goldschmidt going to put up an .850 OPS next year?  Unlikely.

I'm fine not bring Santana back, but don't hate on his season.  It was very good, and that's before you look at clubhouse presence and other intangibles.  Give the man his due.

Agreed. Santana was well worth the money he received. If more guys had produced as expected, his above-average numbers would have been a nice bonus. 

OTOH, banking on another similar season for a 39 year old is a losing bet. My opinion on Santana turns on his pedestrian numbers as a left handed hitter. He's been below average against righties for years and 75% of pitchers are right handed.

[Joe A. Preusser]

Last year was a year constrained.  I get that.

But since when has this front office only shopped bargain bin, dumpster dive, etc free agents?

I can think of 3 times this front office signed free agents that were very expensive off the top of my head.  Can you all?  Stop with the confirmation bias.

[stringer bell]

3 hours ago, FargoFanMan said:

If you have an open mind and do the math this makes sense. You trade Vazquez for whatever and eat $5M of his contract. You trade Paddack for whatever and eat $3M. You trade Castro at his peak since this isn’t a video game and you get a decent prospect and maybe a BP arm. That saves you roughly $6M. All of a sudden you’ve got about $15M to work with. You need an anchor at 1B and let’s be honest, You don’t want Miranda as your everyday 1B. Can you get Goldy for 2 years and 12-14M with an option in year 2? He’s the perfect fit. No he’s not an MVP candidate anymore but he provides leadership and stability like Santana did. They’ve got other guys to be backups. Castro was great but he’s starting to cost some money and let’s flip him while he’s worth something. Goldy is what this team needs in more ways than one. 

Yeah, sacrifice all kinds of depth to bring in an aging first baseman. I think having quality behind the starting players is vital to sustaining a good season. 

[TheLeviathan]

2 minutes ago, Joe A. Preusser said:

Last year was a year constrained.  I get that.

But since when has this front office only shopped bargain bin, dumpster dive, etc free agents?

I can think of 3 times this front office signed free agents that were very expensive off the top of my head.  Can you all?  Stop with the confirmation bias.

I agree, when they have the budget room to do so, they are willing to.

I just can't imagine they'll have that luxury.

[Joe A. Preusser]

Why would we pay way too much to bring in Goldy when we have multiple good in-house options for first? 

First and foremost Jose Miranda.  

Second, not on second anymore, Eduard Julien.

Third, comeback kid 3 years running AK.

Seriously, 1B feels like the absolute LEAST of our concerns.  

Go out and trade for a young, good, cost controlled starting pitcher... (COUGH Luzardo COUGH).  Figure out the bullpen.  Get in a hitting coach team that can get better results.

 

 

 

[Vanimal46]

6 minutes ago, Joe A. Preusser said:

Last year was a year constrained.  I get that.

But since when has this front office only shopped bargain bin, dumpster dive, etc free agents?

I can think of 3 times this front office signed free agents that were very expensive off the top of my head.  Can you all?  Stop with the confirmation bias.

My bad for being 4 days off to disagree with my post. The 3 signings you’re probably thinking of:

Nelson Cruz signed 12/27 (oops!) 

Josh Donaldson signed 1/22

Carlos Correa signed 1st time 3/15 2nd time 1/11. Like I said in the post you disagreed with, major signings happen in January or later. Thoughts?