Better Late Than Never: Justin Topa Arrives, Locks Down Twins Win

[Eric Blonigen]

With the Twins activating Justin Topa Wednesday, they finally got to realize a bit of value from the Jorge Polanco trade. Is it too late, or can he still help the team as they cling desperately to hope?

Image courtesy of © Jesse Johnson-Imagn Images

The Twins announced a flurry of roster moves ahead of Wednesday night's game against the Marlins. One of them was activating Justin Topa for the final five games of the season.

In January, the Twins traded fan-favorite second baseman Jorge Polanco to the Seattle Mariners in a five-player swap that also netted them Anthony DeSclafani, Gabriel Gonzalez, Darren Bowen, and enough cash to cover most of DeScalafani's salary for 2024. While the move was panned by those who saw DeSclafani as the prize, the true value was meant to come from Topa and Gonzalez. While Gonzalez has had a middling season at High-A Cedar Rapids, he’s still just 20 and may have a future.

Topa, on the other hand, has been injured all season with left patellar tendinitis, suffered covering home plate during a game near the end of spring training. He was close to returning in late July, but that was scuttled by a setback. Only here at the death of the season has he made it all the way back, so many Twins fans are only dimly aware of him. Who is he, why did the Twins trade for him, and what can fans expect?

Topa's career has been quite a journey. Drafted twice out of college, in the 33rd and then the 17th rounds, he signed with the Pirates. He was a late bloomer, and injuries wrecked his first shot at pro ball, ultimately forcing him to spend a couple of season and a half in indy ball before the Rangers gave him a second chance. His minor-league deal with them in 2018 didn't lead to glory, but he signed with the Brewers on the eve of Opening Day in 2019.

That time, he took off. He debuted in his age-29 season in 2020 and had a good, but brief showing. Over six appearances (7 2/3 innings) he struck out 12, allowed just two earned runs, had a WHIP under 1.00, and carried a FIP of 1.76. The next two seasons were disrupted by a flexor tendon issue that required surgery, so he was limited to just a handful of games in each season. 

Prior to the 2023 season, the Mariners traded for Topa and he hit his stride in a real way. In his first healthy season, he had a rubber arm, making 75 appearances. That’s Griffin Jax territory. Over 69 innings, he pitched to a 2.61 ERA (3.15 FIP). He walked fewer batters than an average pitcher, and was worth 1.1 fWAR. He was good against both left-handed and right-handed batters, and emerged as a late-inning weapon.

That’s the pitcher the Twins hoped they were trading for. Seventy-five innings is a good sample size for a reliever, and the Twins were buying the uncertainty that goes along with a player of Topa’s unusual career arc and injury history, hoping for upside. Controllable through 2026, the intention was for Topa to slot in behind Jhoan Durán, Griffin Jax, and Brock Stewart to form a lethal foursome at the back of the bullpen. Unfortunately, his injury prevented that from taking place. Now that he’s back, he can still impact a bullpen desperate for some stability, as he demonstrated with a scoreless ninth inning Wednesday night.

So what does he offer the team? Well, a lot. He has a four-pitch mix, throwing a sinker, slider, cutter, and changeup. The sinker and cutter are both very good, worth 10 runs and one run last year, respectively. He throws the sinker about 45% of the time, and the cutter another 19%. The changeup is so-so, with neutral value, and he throws that rarely, just 7% of the time. The slider is a slight negative, but of course, the Twins do well at helping pitchers develop that pitch. He throws that 30% of the time. The fascinating wrinkle with Topa is his sidearm slot, from a fairly upright posture. It leads to very heavy action on the sinker, and his slider actually appears to rise relative to that pitch, when it's right. 

While the Twins making the playoffs at this juncture seems unlikely, there’s still value in Topa facing major-league hitters a couple of times this season, and for the Twins, it will be instructive to see how he looks. Being under team control for two more seasons has a ton of value, and although he wasn’t a bullpen building block this season, he could be so next year. The next test is whether he’s truly healthy, and whether his stuff plays at the same level as 2023. If it does, next year's bullpen should be a good one.

He pitched for the first time as a member of the Twins in the 9th inning of an 8-3 win. He was efficient, located his pitches, and coaxed a ground out, a pop out, and a strikeout to finish the game. Rocco Baldelli needed 24 outs from his relievers to win that game, and he'll need plenty more from them if the team is going to win enough to sneak into the postseason. Topa gives them a much-needed reliable option, increasing the likelihood that Baldelli will thread the needle. It's a welcome development, though something shy of true salvation.

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[thelanges5]

I was starting to doubt his existence. Good to finally see him. Not sure what our chances are but I’d like to see 4 games of good baseball to close out the reg season. 

[jmlease1]

Waiting For Topa has been the worst movie of the summer.

It's extra frustrating because he's exactly what we needed. One more trustworthy arm in the bullpen that could keep the workload from getting oppressive on Jax & Duran, coverage for Brock Stewart getting hurt again, etc. Getting next to nothing from him hurt. This is where luck plays into the season: Twins made a bet on Topa & Stewart being factors in the bullpen this season, and it came up craps.

He's definitely got the ability to be a very useful member of the bullpen. But health has ruined multiple seasons for the Twins recently, so you have to wonder if they can continue to take these risks on player health when it's gone to hell multiple times.

 

 

[Craig Arko]

What’s his status for next year? Free agency, or under contract?

[Riverbrian]

4 minutes ago, Craig Arko said:

What’s his status for next year? Free agency, or under contract?

Arb 2

Probably get a slight raise from his 1.25M despite not really pitching this year. 

[LambchoP]

On paper we should have a very good bullpen next year. If everyone is relatively healthy we've got

Duran, Jax, Sands

Alcala, Stewart, Topa

Henriquez, Varland maybe Paddack 

Hopefully a few free agents. Especially a lefty or two

Looks like a solid group, but that's what everyone said this year. We all know injuries happen and relievers struggle. Hopefully they've learned we need a ton of depth. REAL depth, not injured waiver claim scrap heap guys that are nothing but dead weight.

[Larry Janisewski]

2 hours ago, Craig Arko said:

What’s his status for next year? Free agency, or under contract?

The article stated he is under control for 2 more years.

[mnfireman]

21 minutes ago, LambchoP said:

On paper we should have a very good bullpen next year. If everyone is relatively healthy we've got

Duran, Jax, Sands

Alcala, Stewart, Topa

Henriquez, Varland maybe Paddack 

Hopefully a few free agents. Especially a lefty or two

Looks like a solid group, but that's what everyone said this year. We all know injuries happen and relievers struggle. Hopefully they've learned we need a ton of depth. REAL depth, not injured waiver claim scrap heap guys that are nothing but dead weight.

[saviking]

Oh, now he shows up ..

[TwinsDr2021]

41 minutes ago, LambchoP said:

On paper we should have a very good bullpen next year. If everyone is relatively healthy we've got

Duran, Jax, Sands

Alcala, Stewart, Topa

Henriquez, Varland maybe Paddack 

Hopefully a few free agents. Especially a lefty or two

Looks like a solid group, but that's what everyone said this year. We all know injuries happen and relievers struggle. Hopefully they've learned we need a ton of depth. REAL depth, not injured waiver claim scrap heap guys that are nothing but dead weight.

So basically the same one as this year?

[harmlessharmon]

Topa has a rubber arm with Seattle last year with 75 appearances, sub-3 era, no problem, on cruise control.  Then he meets the mightiest foe; the Twins' injury curse.

[DJL44]

22 minutes ago, harmlessharmon said:

Topa has a rubber arm with Seattle last year with 75 appearances, sub-3 era, no problem, on cruise control.  Then he meets the mightiest foe; the Twins' injury curse.

Topa has struggled with injuries his entire career. Last year was probably his healthiest season.

If you want to have a bullpen with 6 healthy, performing pitchers you need to start with 12 high potential arms.

[NYCTK]

33 minutes ago, LambchoP said:

On paper we should have a very good bullpen next year. If everyone is relatively healthy we've got

Duran, Jax, Sands

Alcala, Stewart, Topa

Henriquez, Varland maybe Paddack 

Hopefully a few free agents. Especially a lefty or two

Looks like a solid group, but that's what everyone said this year. We all know injuries happen and relievers struggle. Hopefully they've learned we need a ton of depth. REAL depth, not injured waiver claim scrap heap guys that are nothing but dead weight.

As is, yeah. But because all of Duran, Jax, Stewart, Topa, and Alcala are due raises, we don't know if this front office will keep them all around. The bullpen, as is, is due $14 million.

That's not even mentioning Paddack who is due 7.5 mil. 

[mnfireman]

19 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

As is, yeah. But because all of Duran, Jax, Stewart, Topa, and Alcala are due raises, we don't know if this front office will keep them all around. The bullpen, as is, is due $14 million.

That's not even mentioning Paddack who is due 7.5 mil. 

Looking at Baseball Reference the Twins estimated payroll for 2025 is $175.5 MM if no options are exercised, $193.2 MM if all options are exercised. FanGraphs does not have a payroll estimator for 2025.

I'm thinking all roster options for next season are already in the Twins system, be it MLB or MiLB. Going to be a lot of upset TD posters this off-season...

[stringer bell]

In 2024 Twins bet on acquiring older (over 30) pitchers who were under team control and therefore didn’t have big salaries. This included Topa, Steven Okert, Josh Staumont and  Jay Jackson, along with the returning Brock Stewart. 
 

Injuries got Stewart and Topa and the other three guys were ineffective. 

[Mike Sixel]

2 hours ago, LambchoP said:

On paper we should have a very good bullpen next year. If everyone is relatively healthy we've got

Duran, Jax, Sands

Alcala, Stewart, Topa

Henriquez, Varland maybe Paddack 

Hopefully a few free agents. Especially a lefty or two

Looks like a solid group, but that's what everyone said this year. We all know injuries happen and relievers struggle. Hopefully they've learned we need a ton of depth. REAL depth, not injured waiver claim scrap heap guys that are nothing but dead weight.

Put Preilip in the bullpen next year....no need to use his few pitches in the minors...Then stretch him out to start 2026, and follow the Liriano path.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, NYCTK said:

As is, yeah. But because all of Duran, Jax, Stewart, Topa, and Alcala are due raises, we don't know if this front office will keep them all around. The bullpen, as is, is due $14 million.

Or about what Baltimore paid Craig Kimbrel to pitch poorly for them.

44 minutes ago, mnfireman said:

Looking at Baseball Reference the Twins estimated payroll for 2025 is $175.5 MM if no options are exercised, $193.2 MM if all options are exercised. FanGraphs does not have a payroll estimator for 2025.

That can't be correct.

[mnfireman]

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/MIN/minnesota-twins-salaries-and-contracts.shtml

[bean5302]

4 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

...That can't be correct.

BR's salary estimator is not exactly accurate. It shows 57 players with salary. Plus, guys like Giovanni Gallegos' option being picked up. An extra 17 players adds a lot of MLB payroll, even at league minimum.

[NYCTK]

24 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

BR's salary estimator is not exactly accurate. It shows 57 players with salary. Plus, guys like Giovanni Gallegos' option being picked up. An extra 17 players adds a lot of MLB payroll, even at league minimum.

Hey fam, should we pick up Margot's $12 M option?!

[BillyBallLives]

2 hours ago, NYCTK said:

As is, yeah. But because all of Duran, Jax, Stewart, Topa, and Alcala are due raises, we don't know if this front office will keep them all around. The bullpen, as is, is due $14 million.

Bullpen is made up of 8 or 9 players. Twins can spend 48 million on two position players,  but can't exceed 14 million on 9 ?  That's a head scratcher. 

[stringer bell]

1 hour ago, stringer bell said:

In 2024 Twins bet on acquiring older (over 30) pitchers who were under team control and therefore didn’t have big salaries. This included Topa, Steven Okert, Josh Staumont and  Jay Jackson, along with the returning Brock Stewart. 
 

Injuries got Stewart and Topa and the other three guys were ineffective. 

To extend on my previous comment, this was a way to keep payroll down for 2024 and presumably 2025, since the Twins would be able to keep all five guys on arbitration salaries in 2025, if they performed well.  I suppose they didn't think all five would succeed, but going 0-fer with those five guys made the bullpen a weakness most of the season. 

Every team deals with injuries for their pitching staff. The Twins took chances on guys with substantial injury histories and crapped out. Topa was coming off a healthy season with excellent results, so he was probably the surest bet and he missed 157 games.

[HelmetTip]

3 hours ago, mnfireman said:

Looking at Baseball Reference the Twins estimated payroll for 2025 is $175.5 MM if no options are exercised, $193.2 MM if all options are exercised. FanGraphs does not have a payroll estimator for 2025.

I'm thinking all roster options for next season are already in the Twins system, be it MLB or MiLB. Going to be a lot of upset TD posters this off-season...

 

Thanks for pointing out that tool, I hadn't seen it in spite of hours spent playing on B.R. over the years. 

But the table is just raw data & shouldn't be used to make statements like this. They're not paying Margot anything next year. Just at a glance I see a bunch of arbitration eligible guys who almost surely won't be back - Okert, Kirilloff, Irvin, Tonkin, etc. 

The number will still be too high for the impoverished Pohland family, but $175M isn't a realistic starting point for a discussion. 

[NYCTK]

2 hours ago, BillyBallLives said:

Bullpen is made up of 8 or 9 players. Twins can spend 48 million on two position players,  but can't exceed 14 million on 9 ?  That's a head scratcher. 

With Pablo's raise, it's now $74m on 3. So that leaves $60 million for 23 players now. Now we look at Willi Castro, Ryan Jeffers, and Chris Paddack raises ($17.5m) and we're down to about $40m for 20 players. 

So before we're even considering the raises of our bullpen guys, we're looking at a max $18mil to spend in the bullpen if we're trying to stay in the $130-135 mil range. 

[darwin22]

6 hours ago, mnfireman said:

Looking at Baseball Reference the Twins estimated payroll for 2025 is $175.5 MM if no options are exercised, $193.2 MM if all options are exercised. FanGraphs does not have a payroll estimator for 2025.

I'm thinking all roster options for next season are already in the Twins system, be it MLB or MiLB. Going to be a lot of upset TD posters this off-season...

Not arguing with "the numbers" you mentioned regarding estimated payroll for 2025, but I looked at Spotrac website and found significantly lower numbers.

Twins have 5 players (Vazquez-10; Correa- 37.33; Buxton-15.14; Lopez-21.75 and Paddack- 7.5) with guaranteed salaries for next season.  That total is $91.72mill

They have 12 players arbitration eligible for 2025.  

Of this group, I'd guess that 10 will be offered arbitration, with resulting raises:

Jeffers, Lewis, Castro, Larnach, Ober, Ryan, Topa, Stewart, Jax and Duran.

The 2 others arb eligible are Kirilloff and Tonkin.  Both, imo, should be released.

Alcala has a $1.5 club option, which imo is a no-brainer.  He absolutely should be back.

Margot has a $12m mutual option.  Enough said.  See ya later Manuel

4 players are unrestricted free agents:  Santana, Kepler, DeSclafini and Thielbar.  Their collective salaries for 2024 totaled $26,475,000.  The only 1 in that group that I'd advocate to re-sign would be Santana as I don't see a legit 1B ready to take over next year.

The rest of the players are all PRE-ARB.  All of them made under $1m in 2024

Hitters:  Miranda, Martin, Julien, Lee and Wallner

Pitchers:  SWR, Festa, Varland, Matthews, Duarte, Sands, Funderburk and Blewett.

Waste of my time and other TD fans to think that our cheap ownership will make any effort to sign a big time FA hitter or pitcher in the offseason.   As a result, the only means I see for improvement are a few trades for SP depth, legit bullpen arms and 2 quality bats.  Wishful thinking, I know.

 

 

[darwin22]

1 minute ago, darwin22 said:

Not arguing with "the numbers" you mentioned regarding estimated payroll for 2025, but I looked at Spotrac website and found significantly lower numbers.

Twins have 5 players (Vazquez-10; Correa- 37.33; Buxton-15.14; Lopez-21.75 and Paddack- 7.5) with guaranteed salaries for next season.  That total is $91.72mill

They have 12 players arbitration eligible for 2025.  

Of this group, I'd guess that 10 will be offered arbitration, with resulting raises:

Jeffers, Lewis, Castro, Larnach, Ober, Ryan, Topa, Stewart, Jax and Duran.

The 2 others arb eligible are Kirilloff and Tonkin.  Both, imo, should be released.

Alcala has a $1.5 club option, which imo is a no-brainer.  He absolutely should be back.

Margot has a $12m mutual option.  Enough said.  See ya later Manuel

4 players are unrestricted free agents:  Santana, Kepler, DeSclafini and Thielbar.  Their collective salaries for 2024 totaled $26,475,000.  The only 1 in that group that I'd advocate to re-sign would be Santana as I don't see a legit 1B ready to take over next year.

The rest of the players are all PRE-ARB.  All of them made under $1m in 2024

Hitters:  Miranda, Martin, Julien, Lee and Wallner

Pitchers:  SWR, Festa, Varland, Matthews, Duarte, Sands, Funderburk and Blewett.

Waste of my time and other TD fans to think that our cheap ownership will make any effort to sign a big time FA hitter or pitcher in the offseason.   As a result, the only means I see for improvement are a few trades for SP depth, legit bullpen arms and 2 quality bats.  Wishful thinking, I know.

 

 

1 error:  Collective 2024 salaries for Santana, Kepler, DeSclafini and Theilbar totaled $22,475,00.  If all 4 are gone---thats a decent chunk of $$ that could solidify the rotation as well as bringing in at least 2 quality RPs--preferably LHP RPs

[h2oface]

In this case, late is the same as never. Too late. 

[h2oface]

,

[h2oface]

29 minutes ago, darwin22 said:

Not arguing with "the numbers" you mentioned regarding estimated payroll for 2025, but I looked at Spotrac website and found significantly lower numbers.

Twins have 5 players (Vazquez-10; Correa- 37.33; Buxton-15.14; Lopez-21.75 and Paddack- 7.5) with guaranteed salaries for next season.  That total is $91.72mill

They have 12 players arbitration eligible for 2025.  

Of this group, I'd guess that 10 will be offered arbitration, with resulting raises:

Jeffers, Lewis, Castro, Larnach, Ober, Ryan, Topa, Stewart, Jax and Duran.

The 2 others arb eligible are Kirilloff and Tonkin.  Both, imo, should be released.

Alcala has a $1.5 club option, which imo is a no-brainer.  He absolutely should be back.

Margot has a $12m mutual option.  Enough said.  See ya later Manuel

4 players are unrestricted free agents:  Santana, Kepler, DeSclafini and Thielbar.  Their collective salaries for 2024 totaled $26,475,000.  The only 1 in that group that I'd advocate to re-sign would be Santana as I don't see a legit 1B ready to take over next year.

The rest of the players are all PRE-ARB.  All of them made under $1m in 2024

Hitters:  Miranda, Martin, Julien, Lee and Wallner

Pitchers:  SWR, Festa, Varland, Matthews, Duarte, Sands, Funderburk and Blewett.

Waste of my time and other TD fans to think that our cheap ownership will make any effort to sign a big time FA hitter or pitcher in the offseason.   As a result, the only means I see for improvement are a few trades for SP depth, legit bullpen arms and 2 quality bats.  Wishful thinking, I know.

 

 

Hey.... maybe, because Correa is so loving to be in Minnesota, and he is a declared leader, maybe he would give up some of his Dior contract and amend his contract to get a better team around him, you know, like many great football or basketball players have. Maybe? Especially since he only plays half a season, anyway........

Ya, I don't think he loves this team that much, either. 

[NYCTK]

9 minutes ago, h2oface said:

Hey.... maybe, because Correa is so loving to be in Minnesota, and he is a declared leader, maybe he would give up some of his Dior contract and amend his contract to get a better team around him, you know, like many great football or basketball players have. Maybe? Especially since he only plays half a season, anyway........

Ya, I don't think he loves this team that much, either. 

The owners don't love the team that much. He shouldn't.