The Writing Seems To Be on the Wall for Alex Kirilloff

[USAFChief]

23 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

That's absolutely ridiculous! Kiriloff is a far superior hitter that vastly outproduced Santana while he was healthy & wasn't given the opportunity to stay healthy. I can't help that you can't see that the Miranda/ Kiriloff platoon is far better option than only Santana. You can disagree with what I write but let's not be ridiculous. 

Kiriloff "wasn't given the opportunity to stay healthy"?

[USAFChief]

As for Kiriloff himself, there's no reason to release him this winter. 

He's still gonna be cheap enough, he's still got an option, and there's way too much potential bat there to just give up before you need to.

[Eric Blonigen]

1 minute ago, USAFChief said:

As for Kiriloff himself, there's no reason to release him this winter. 

He's still gonna be cheap enough, he's still got an option, and there's way too much potential bat there to just give up before you need to.

Under normal payroll circumstances, I would completely agree that he’s cheap and give him one more chance. But, if there’s a mandate to cut payroll again, and it comes down to either:

1) keeping Kirilloff and Paddack, but non-tendering or trading Willi Castro

2) non-tendering or trading Kirilloff and trading Paddack, then keeping Castro and paying him the ~$9M he’s likely worth through arbitration?

which would you choose? There’s at least a chance this is the sort of calculus the front office will be faced with this offseason.

[DJL44]

10 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

That's absolutely ridiculous! Kiriloff is a far superior hitter that vastly outproduced Santana while he was healthy & wasn't given the opportunity to stay healthy. I can't help that you can't see that the Miranda/ Kiriloff platoon is far better option than only Santana. You can disagree with what I write but let's not be ridiculous. 

Kirilloff is a bad defender at 1B. He can't hit lefties. Santana is a very good defender at 1B and beats the hell out of lefties. If there was going to be a platoon it would be Kirilloff/Santana. That was the plan out of spring training. Santana was brought in to be Kirilloff's caddy and gained more playing time because his defense is clearly better and Kirilloff could play LF when the OF was thinned out due to injuries and Wallner's poor play.

Jose Miranda (another player coming off an injury plagued season) has beaten out Kirilloff for the 1B job, not Santana. Miranda has been a much better hitter (940 OPS vs RHP for Miranda, 663 for Kirilloff) and fielder (+2 RField vs -3) than Kirilloff. Larnach and Wallner are clearly superior options in LF since they also both field and hit better than Kirilloff. If Kirilloff wants to play for the Twins he needs to play better than Miranda, Larnach or Wallner. In the future he may also need to beat out Royce Lewis for the 1B job and that is quite unlikely to happen.

Alex Kirilloff is buried on the depth chart. He is arguably the worst position player on the 40 man roster. The only reason I can think of to keep him is Kepler and Margot will both be gone and Keirsey is the only minor league outfielder who has a chance of being added to the 40 man roster. The Twins can option AK and keep him in the minors until injuries give him another opportunity. The problem with that scenario is that Kirilloff is more likely than not to be injured and unavailable when they need the depth.

[DJL44]

3 minutes ago, Eric Blonigen said:

Under normal payroll circumstances, I would completely agree that he’s cheap and give him one more chance. But, if there’s a mandate to cut payroll again, and it comes down to either:

1) keeping Kirilloff and Paddack, but non-tendering or trading Willi Castro

2) non-tendering or trading Kirilloff and trading Paddack, then keeping Castro and paying him the ~$9M he’s likely worth through arbitration?

which would you choose? There’s at least a chance this is the sort of calculus the front office will be faced with this offseason.

Everyone should choose option 2.

[USAFChief]

1 minute ago, Eric Blonigen said:

Under normal payroll circumstances, I would completely agree that he’s cheap and give him one more chance. But, if there’s a mandate to cut payroll again, and it comes down to either:

1) keeping Kirilloff and Paddack, but non-tendering or trading Willi Castro

2) non-tendering or trading Kirilloff and trading Paddack, then keeping Castro and paying him the ~$9M he’s likely worth through arbitration?

which would you choose? There’s at least a chance this is the sort of calculus the front office will be faced with this offseason.

I don't think Kirilloff's salary will impact either. 

 

For the record I don't think Castro is a Twin next year.

[wabene]

Didn't the Twins maneuver to keep Kirilloff's last option intact? If so that speaks volumes and they consider him relatively reasonably priced depth for next year.

[DJL44]

11 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

For the record I don't think Castro is a Twin next year.

That's a shame. I think he's their best option at 2B and I don't think he will return more in a trade than he's worth to the team.

[DJL44]

10 minutes ago, wabene said:

Didn't the Twins maneuver to keep Kirilloff's last option intact? If so that speaks volumes and they consider him relatively reasonably priced depth for next year.

How many teams keep an ARB2 salaried player just to stash him in AAA? All that maneuvering means is there is no reason to throw away an option on purpose.

[USAFChief]

8 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

That's a shame. I think he's their best option at 2B and I don't think he will return more in a trade than he's worth to the team.

Maybe, maybe not, but Pohlads 

[Danchat]

5 hours ago, Heiny said:

I'm probably in the great minority here, but I think Julien is another candidate to be traded in the off-season.  Kirilloff and Julien both seem to be in need of a change of venue.

Way too early to sell low on Julien, whereas I think Kirilloff is at the end of his rope. Julien at least took a big step up defensively at 2B while Kirilloff has proven he is a poor fielder at all positions. And health-wise Julien is in a far better spot. This is Eddy's first poor year, Alex has had more than enough fair shakes by this point.

A Rooker-like resurgence is possible but you can't count on that happening. He did hit better than I remembered in 2023 but the questions regarding his health and his defensive positioning still loom large.

[wabene]

27 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

How many teams keep an ARB2 salaried player just to stash him in AAA? All that maneuvering means is there is no reason to throw away an option on purpose.

I don't know. Not many? Too expensive? Fill me in

[Mike Sixel]

No way you do anything but put him in AAA to start, imo. Unless you are blown away in a trade. But you can't count on him to be a starter next year. 

[jorgenswest]

9 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

No way you do anything but put him in AAA to start, imo. Unless you are blown away in a trade. But you can't count on him to be a starter next year. 

Concur. AAA was the best starting spot for Miranda and Larnach this year. Worked out well. 

[DJL44]

23 minutes ago, wabene said:

I don't know. Not many? Too expensive? Fill me in

I can't think of any. I would be really surprised if anyone did this for a position player. If a player isn't good enough for your 26 man roster you non-tender them.

[Dman]

There's enough talent in front and behind him that I don't think they "need" to keep Kirilloff, but if he really is a near .800 OPS bat when healthy just giving that away seems wasteful.  He has an option year left and time to build his value back up at AAA.  It seems prudent to give it one more shot.  We write off players too fast IMO.

Like others have said given the state of the talent on the farm and the team I don't really see a place for him as a starter on this team given his defensive limitations.  It's going to be a tough call for the FO.  They know him best, but if it were up to me I would just keep him and try and build his value back up. Then likely trade him for future pieces. Or if he doesn't perform then they can DFA him but would be on the hook for the money,. Probably have to wait and see how the Arb raises turn out to see how deep they decide to cut.

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

3 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

Back a few years ago many were for trading away Lewis & keeping Kiriloff. I saw the overall worth of Lewis & was dead-set on keeping Lewis even before AFL.

Why do you insist on creating false narratives so that you can pat yourself on the back? 

Quote

Kiriloff was taken off DH/1B duty & put in the OF where he hurt himself & all this mess started, 

IMO all this could have been avoided if they hadn't signed FA Santana. Yes Santana is contributing now but when Kiriloff was healthy & raking, Santana was tanking. If we didn't have Santana, Kiriloff would been kept at 1B, he'd have felt more secure in his status with the Twins thus less likely playing hurt & less likely getting hurt & more likely he'd maintain his early success (& increase his trade value). At that point nobody would be talking about trading Kiriloff. Then we could correctly evaluation our needs at 1B. Instead of  Kiriloff fighting for his life now. IMO Santana has impaired us from making efficient & economical decisions present & future, & I'd most certainly wouldn't make that same mistake by resigning Santana.

This narrative is so beaten dead at this point. Just stop.

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

Alex Kirilloff was done producing on April 13th. He finished April with a .562 OPS after that doubleheader, followed that up with a .613 in May and then .364 before being shutdown in June.

Unfortunately he's just never really put it together for more than a month or two at a time. 

[High heat]

Would Tigers trade Spencer Torkelson straight up for Kiriloff? 
 

2 struggling 1B who have kid of worn out there welcome in there current organization.

[USAFChief]

56 minutes ago, High heat said:

Would Tigers trade Spencer Torkelson straight up for Kiriloff? 
 

2 struggling 1B who have kid of worn out there welcome in there current organization.

Huh. Good question 

 

Sign me up.

 

But he's cheaper with more team control so I doubt it.

[insagt1]

IF he is still good for one more year, and if there is 'room' in St Paul, start him there in 2025 and see if he has recovered. I don't see much value in Twins collecting players that are chronically injured..they have Buxton, Correa, Lewis, Kirilloff..am I forgetting any others. Point is it doesn't help when too many of your key players are out for long periods of time.

As for Julien, I think he has gone backwards this year. His k's have become too obvious to ignore. Lewis k's about every 4th or so AB and many of them are in key spots; but it would be nice to see how he does if he can play 120 or more games to get a better evaluation on him. He seems like he is the real deal. Julien...not sure he can handle MLB pitching. Kirilloff...needs to not be injured. We say that about Buck. We say it about Correa.

Somehow, Twins are still competing at a high level, despite todays fail. No team is running the table this year. No one on target for 100 wins. Likely one or two division winners will be lucky to win over 90. Every team has had their issues. Interesting season.

[Brandon]

I say trade him to Pittsburgh.  He is from Pennsylvania.  If he breaks out, so what he is helping the Pirates (a small market team you probably root for a little). And former Bench Coach now manager gets credit and a good player if he breaks out.  At this point, I think he is a change of scenery guy.  The struggles and injuries over 4 seasons is enough.  I don’t want to pay him 2 million to stash in AAA because budgets and stuff.  I do think he can be a good hitter, but he can now be that for another team.  I do wonder what his value is in trade.

[Doctor Gast]

2 hours ago, CCHOF5yearstoolate said:

Why do you insist on creating false narratives so that you can pat yourself on the back? 

One thing they aren't false narratives if you really are concerned that they are false then prove me wrong check past threads about these topics at TD like people like to preach to me. If you want I can send old Kiriloff's trade transactions from BTV. I only bring them up to put things into context & because I'm constantly accused of being wrong then I'm proven right then those accusants suddenly have amnesia & disappear. I don't need to pat myself on the back. If I did, wouldn't expect to find recognition here. I really don't need the grief.

[DJL44]

3 hours ago, Brandon said:

At this point, I think he is a change of scenery guy.

Alex Kirilloff reminds me of Delmon Young. Both players were maxed out hitters in high school but not able to star at the highest level. They're also not elite athletes (compared to other major leaguers) so they don't contribute defensively.

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

4 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

Back a few years ago many were for trading away Lewis & keeping Kiriloff.

I've said this before, you seeing one person on an anonymous forum doesn't make it anything more than a fringe opinion. This is a false narrative ("many people are saying") that you clearly fabricated for some reason. I'll let you think about why you felt the need to do so.

It's always "I predicted this years ago when everyone else was saying the opposite" with you. The burden of proof is on you when you claim ridiculous things. 

[stringer bell]

10 hours ago, Rufus said:

Miranda was pretty well written off at the beginning of this season as I recall..  Kirilliff has the talent and is still young.  If he can get his injury jinx behind him he can be a contributor to a MLB team.  When healthy he has produced.  Why give up on him now?  

The same is true for Trevor Larnach. He’s slightly less than a year older than AK, so next year age and options will line up for Larnach in ‘24 and Kirilloff in ‘25. Nothing will or should be promised to Alex Kirilloff next spring and it will be up to him to show he can help the Twins next year and beyond, as Larnach has done this year.

I’ve believed in Kirilloff for a long time, but his inability to stay healthy and productive has lowered my expectations. He probably will get one more chance and that is more than many players get. 

[DocBauer]

All due respect to the man and career that is Carlos Santana, he's defied father time for TWO rebound seasons now,  and even if he's willing and wanting to come back for the same $5M ish deal in 2025, would the Twins be smart to bring him back at 39yo with fingers crossed he can beat the aging process for a THIRD season?

I mean, anything is possible, but it's pretty doubtful. And I don't believe the Twins will take that gamble.

That being said, you can almost ink in 11 guys for 13 spots next season, with Martin written in the erasable ink version. (Is that even still a thing?) 1B is the biggest, solo hole with Miranda able to play there, but who else right now? I have a lot of faith still that Julien's talent is going to win out and we're still going to see a really good producer there. But I don't want to go on to 2025 guaranteeing him a spot at this time. And while I'm begining to think Severino MIGHT turn out to be a solid ML 1B, the jury is certainly out still.

I'm not saying Kirilloff is any kind of solution for 2025. But he's going to have an option left. And if they were willing to spend about a $M and a half for a questionable pen arm, they'd spend $1.5-2M for a soon to be 27yo LH OF/1B, who has produced when healthy, on the hope that 2025 might be the magical season where he finally IS healthy.

Now, I think it's 50/50 he's traded to another club who thinks along the same lines, and moves their RH OF or pen arm they're disappointed in for a mutual "disappointment/bounceback"  kind of deal.

But 1B IS a question mark right now and it's not going to be dealt with via a big $ deal for anyone, so more options are better. A healthy AK can be part of the 1B equation, or the last man on the bench who can play 3 spots...if only average at best...and DH/PH. He can also be removed at any time without crippling the team financially in any way.

It just makes sense for a $2M gamble for one more year...unless he's part of the previously mentioned "make good" trade scenario.

 

[dxpavelka]

10 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

That's absolutely ridiculous! Kiriloff is a far superior hitter that vastly outproduced Santana while he was healthy & wasn't given the opportunity to stay healthy. I can't help that you can't see that the Miranda/ Kiriloff platoon is far better option than only Santana. You can disagree with what I write but let's not be ridiculous. 

"wasn't given the opportunity to stay healthy?" HUH??

[Doctor Gast]

11 hours ago, CCHOF5yearstoolate said:

I've said this before, you seeing one person on an anonymous forum doesn't make it anything more than a fringe opinion. This is a false narrative ("many people are saying") that you clearly fabricated for some reason. I'll let you think about why you felt the need to do so.

It's always "I predicted this years ago when everyone else was saying the opposite" with you. The burden of proof is on you when you claim ridiculous things. 

You are accusing me of fabricating a false narrative or lying for some reason. We live in a free country as far as I am aware. In a free country the burden of proof lies on the accuser not the accused (the person is innocent until proven guilty). Maybe some people don't care if they are liars, come up with false narratives to fit their agenda or to be called one. Be assured I am not one of them. I take it very seriously not to lie. I have no alternative motive to create a false narrative. I certainly don't look to TD as my source of recognition.

On the other hand, social media is full of false narratives, a conduit to spread lies, spin stats to benefit themselves & their cause. Here is where people get their info, & believe everything they read as gospel which in many cases are not. Just because so many people believe social media as gospel doesn't mean it's true. People who come up with these false narratives don't want to encourage you to think they want you to irrationally accept everything they say. You only think what I say is ridiculous because it doesn't fit into your nice little social media box.

I don't understand why so many people want to attack my credibility. That's why I use past confrontations to confirm my credibility & my confronters' amnesia not to pat myself on the back (I'm sorry if it may appear that way). My motive is solely to open people's eyes, get people to observe, think on their own, make assumptions on their own, come to conclusions on their own & not accept everything blindly. If that is to buck the system then so be it. I always say to consider the source, I have nothing to gain by what I write. I don't want people to blindly accept my observations but my hope is that they'd be open & start their own process. My appeal is to open-minded people who can see my sincerity & honesty & be not distracted by the noise.

[Trov]

There is no way the Twins will go into next year expecting anything from him.  I fully expect him to be non-tendered.  He has been injured and most not effective most of his short career.  He is not a good defender anywhere, and other than a few short spurts his offense has been not good either. 

I had high hopes for him and thought he would be a middle of line up bat for years, but injuries just cut that short.  I would not be surprised after we non-tender him he signs with someone and if can stay healthy will be one of those darn if only he could have done that for us, but his health has been terrible.  What is also annoying is he would do terrible and then we would learn he was hurt/injured for much of that time.