Twins Minor League Report (8/16): Brandon Winokur Does Damage

[Tom Froemming]

Twins prospect Brandon Winokur, still just 19 years old, may have hit a baseball clear out of Hammond Stadium tonight. It was an epic blast at 109.3 mph on the exit velocity. He followed it up with another homer that registered a 107.8 mph exit velo. And another hit 105.4 mph.

Image courtesy of William Parmeter (photo of Brandon Winokur)

CURRENT W-L Records
Minnesota Twins: 69-53
St. Paul Saints: 56-61
Wichita Wind Surge: 49-63
Cedar Rapids Kernels: 59-51
Fort Myers Mighty Mussels: 60-47
FCL Twins: 27-31 (season complete)
DSL Twins: 28-25

TRANSACTIONS
The lone transaction on Friday was that RHP Scott Blewett, who was outrighted to St. Paul after clearing waivers, elected to become a free agent. That's not to say he couldn't re-sign with the Twins, but he's going to see what else is out there. 

SAINTS SENTINEL 
Indianapolis 3, St. Paul 2
Box Score
Caleb Boushley had an outstanding start, surrendering one run on six hits over six innings while striking out eight batters and not issuing a walk. This was great to see from a guy who factors into the rotation depth for the big club. Things have been rough for the 30-year-old Wisconsin native of late. Boushley, who made an appearance with the Twins in late-May, had a 9.11 ERA over his previous six starts entering tonight’s outing.

Shortstop Rylan Bannon made the web gem of the evening, a tremendous leaping catch that saved a pair of runs.

Bannon, who’s had a few cups of coffee in the bigs, is relatively new to the org. The 28-year-old was acquired from the Mets on July 15 for cash considerations. He’s struggled at the plate so far with the Saints, posting a .489 OPS in 21 games, but had an .866 OPS in 79 games with the Mets’ Triple-A affiliate prior to the trade.

The Saints threatened in the ninth inning tonight, as Payton Eeles hit a one-out single that was followed by a DaShawn Keirsey Jr. walk to push the tying run into scoring position. Diego A. Castillo battled, but was retired on a bang-bang play to end an eight-pitch at-bat.

With two outs and first base open, Indianapolis opted to challenge Yunior Severino instead of putting him on. It worked, unfortunately, as Severino struck out looking on the first four-seam fastball he saw of the at-bat to end the game.

WIND SURGE WISDOM
Wichita 3, Arkansas 2 (11 innings)
Box Score
Marco Raya was given an opportunity to wiggle out of a tough jam in the fourth inning tonight and shined. After giving up a leadoff double, Raya hit the next batter and then walked the bases loaded with no outs. With his back against the wall, Raya responded. He struck out the next two batters and then recorded the final out on a little swinging bunt fielded by catcher Noah Cardenas. Abracadabra.

While that escape was impressive, it also appeared it may have been taxing. Raya walked the first two batters he faced in the fifth inning and was done for the night. He delivered 4 1/3 shutout innings with five strikeouts.

Travis Adams, usually a starter, came out of the bullpen mid-inning and provided 3 2/3 of one-run ball while striking out six batters. Then it was up to Kyle Bischoff to protect a one-run lead.

Things got off to a shaky start in the ninth inning, as Arkansas got a single and a stolen base to put the tying run at second with no outs. Bischoff struck out the next two batters, then the lineup turned over and top-100 prospect Harry Ford came up to hit. He hit a ground ball up the middle that appeared to kick off the second base bag and over Jake Rucker’s glove, dribbling into center field and the game was tied.

Bischoff held the Travelers scoreless in the 10th and John Stankeiwicz held them off the board in the 11th. The Wind Surge lineup was finally able to take advantage of the extra opportunities in the bottom of the 11th.

Carson McCusker, who hit his 11th home run of the season earlier in the game, grounded out to lead off the inning, allowing the bonus runner to advance to third base. Jake Rucker was intentionally walked, Aaron Sabato drew a walk to load the bases, then Dalton Shuffield dropped a single in front of the center fielder to walk it off for Wichita. 

KERNELS NUGGETS
South Bend 15, Cedar Rapids 2
Box Score
Sometimes it’s just not your night. Ty Langenberg, 2023 11th-round-pick out of Iowa, carried some serious momentum into tonight’s start. Over his previous five outings, the right-hander posted a 1.63 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in 27 2/3 innings pitched.

Langenberg only managed to record four outs tonight, surrendering six runs on eight hits in the process. Things didn’t get much better after he exited, as South Bend had 13 runs by the end of the third inning.

Aussie first baseman Rixon Wingrove hit his second home run since being called up from Fort Myers. Walker Jenkins was the only Kernels hitter to record multiple base knocks, going 2-for-4 with a double.     

MUSSEL MATTERS
Fort Myers 12, Lakeland 2
Box Score
Brandon Winokur can do some special things on a baseball diamond. Listed at 6-foot-6, Winokur manages to hold his own in the field both at shortstop and center field. At the plate, well, the video speaks for itself.

Any three-homer game is special, but those were some especially well-hit baseballs. Winokur’s swing isn’t even especially violent, he’s just a big, strong young man. This gives Winokur 12 home runs on the season, becoming just the 12th hitter to reach double-digit homers in the Florida State League this year. He also has 18 stolen bases.

Kaelen Culpepper also had a three-hit night, though all of his were singles. The Twins 2024 first-round pick drove in three of the Mighty Mussels’ dozen runs. Fellow 2024 draftee Caden Kendle also had a multi-hit game, going 2-for-3 with a double and a walk.

DOMINICAN DAILIES 
DSL Twins 4, DSL Mets Blue 2
Box Score
Yandro Hernandez, a 19-year-old from Cuba, delivered a two-run double in the fourth inning to put the Twins up 4-1. The impact pitching performance came from 17-year-old Dominican righty Yoel Roque, who gave up one run over three innings while striking out six. Eduardo Beltre was 1-for-4 with a double and a pair of stolen bases, giving him nine steals on the season. 

TWINS DAILY MINOR LEAGUE PLAYERS OF THE DAY 
Pitcher of the Day: Caleb Boushley, St. Paul
Hitter of the Day: Brandon Winokur, Fort Myers

PROSPECT SUMMARY
Check out the Prospect Tracker for much more on our recently-updated Twins Top 20 prospects after seeing how they did on Wednesday. 

#1 Walker Jenkins (Cedar Rapids) 2-for-4, 2B, R
#7 Gabriel Gonzalez (Cedar Rapids) 0-for-3, BB
#9 Kaelen Culpepper (Fort Myers) 3-for-5, 3 RBI
#10 Marco Raya (Wichita) 4 1/3 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 5 K
#12 Brandon Winokur (Fort Myers) 3-for-5, 3 HRs, 3 R, 4 RBI
#16 Kyle DeBarge (Fort Myers) 1-for-5, SB, R, 2 RBI
#17 Tanner Schobel (Wichita) 0-for-5

TOMORROW’S PROBABLE STARTERS
St. Paul at Indianapolis, 6:05 pm CT: Randy Dobnak
Wichita vs. Arkansas, 6:05 pm CT: Jaylen Nowlin
Cedar Rapids vs. South Bend, 6:35 pm CT: Connor Prielipp
Fort Myers vs. Lakeland, 5:05 pm CT: Adrian Bohorquez

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[FlyingFinn]

Winokur - 12 homers at 19 years old in a league where it is both tough to hit and tough to hit homers. Impressive.

[jmlease1]

2 hours ago, FlyingFinn said:

Winokur - 12 homers at 19 years old in a league where it is both tough to hit and tough to hit homers. Impressive.

Yeah, I feel like we haven't talked much about Winokur this year (maybe in part because of how Keaschall has risen this season) but he's having a pretty solid season, especially considering it's his first full season of pro ball. He's got some things to work on, like making more consistent contact, but his walk rate is also pretty impressive for someone of his age and experience. That 18-5 steals/CS ratio works just fine too.

Culpepper seems to have passed the Gleeman Lemon Test too. Nice to see the new pick off to a good start.

[mikelink45]

I did not realize that Winokur was so young.  He might be my number two prospect based on what he has done since we signed him. No slight on the others, but I see him rising quickly. 

[TopGunn#22]

Winokur was drafted in the same draft we picked Jenkins I believe, maybe in a high, compensatory round.  He was always intriguing to me at 6:6 and playing SS and CF.  It indicated to me that the kid had some impressive athleticism and a solid arm. 

Watching the 3 HR's he crushed, I completely agree with whoever said the kid does NOT have a violent swing.  It's smooth and precise.  Not to put this on him, but his swing looks a little like Aaron Judge.  Judge knows he's a big dude and ballparks just must seem small to him.  Unlike the violent swing Sano had, Winokur just seems to know that he doesn't have to overpower the ball to get it to sail out of the park.

I'm not sure he can stay at either SS or CF, although Ripken at 6:4 did at SS for many years and Judge at 6:7 plays a very good CF.  But at 6:6 and with that athleticism, he will be a plus defender wherever he lands...Corner Outfield, 1B or even CF.  He's a guy to keep an eye on.  

[madtowntwin]

As another recent minor league summation revealed - 16 stolen bases!! I distinctly  remember on the day Brandon was drafted drooling over the specs and talent within that 6'6" frame and a daydream comparison floated to my consciousness....Not Judge as noted above, rather, Winfield...Still early, but a little more reality to that initial fantasy. Keep making us proud Brandon! Win Twins!!

[roger]

Three home run nights gets one's attention, at least mine!  Did not realize how young he is.  Hopefully, will see him at Target Field before he turns 22.

Love seeing Raya with 80+ pitches.  Also good seeing him get into and out of a jam last night.  Sure helps his development.  Great seeing Jenkins with another two hit night with a double.  Seems he has more of those of late.  

[Dman]

What a difference a day makes. Winokur had a nice .726 OPS which is really good for 19 year old in that league, but after last night he propelled himself into the top 10 of qualified players for an OPS of .767.  Granted there are only about 45 qualified players left as so many move on from A ball half way through.  Still he is young for the level and at the top of the league for hitting.  A very impressive first year for Winokur.

They mentioned on the broadcast that they talked to him about staying at shortstop and he felt that as long as he stayed limber enough he didn't see any reason he couldn't stay there.  I think O'Neil Cruz is 6'6" and there have been other larger shortstops to make it.  It will just depend on how his body develops, but he likes playing short and see's himself playing there.

With the Draftee's at Fort Meyer's it has become a special team to watch.  Culpepper looks great at short and 3rd.  Amick has looked good in the field when I watched him and last night at the plate he he was 0-2 and came back to draw the walk which really impressed me.  That walk started a rally. He is looking better than I thought so far.  It is kind of a nightmare lineup for a pitcher to get through.  The pitcher has to throw strikes as they don't expand the zone much and they all are good hitters  That should be quite the group as they move up together.

Winokur stole the show.  Hopefully another top 100 prospect in the making.

[LambchoP]

Winokur is definitely one of our young prospects to keep an eye on. That new Culpeper also seems like a solid hitter so far in his small sample size. Nice to see Raya get out of the jam, but he needs to seriously work on his control. He's got the stuff to rack up K's, but if he can't limit his walks and find a way to be more efficient, I see a bullpen role in his future.

[twinstalker]

4 hours ago, FlyingFinn said:

Winokur - 12 homers at 19 years old in a league where it is both tough to hit and tough to hit homers. Impressive.

Hit tool questionable (likely not good, but...variation) and strikeout rate poor.  He seems to be an average to decent player in A with those negatives.  The main positive is age vs level, which is better than average currently (for a true prospect).  At this point he's a wait-and-see.  And he's probably around #20 in this suddenly booming system.

[tony&rodney]

Winokur is a work in progress for sure. Having watched several dozen of his at bats this year via milb.com, I am intrigued by his athleticism. There are whiffs and tough games, to be sure, yet the improvement is continual. Winokur has a good eye at the plate and a smooth swing. Defensively he is good wherever he has played, pretty quick with a strong arm. The power and speed combination in a guy who plays good defense and hits the ball is impressive. Winokur is not an exploding superstar like Witt Jr. or Holliday but he is learning quickly and could be a really good player. Patience.

[madtowntwin]

Aaron Judge made his major league debut approximately 8 years ago at age 23 / 24 - and the rest is history...Winfield debuted at age 21. Just sayin' Twinstalker....But in your precocious prescience you are probably were aware of that!!!

[twinstalker]

3 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

Culpepper seems to have passed the Gleeman Lemon Test too. Nice to see the new pick off to a good start.

Except he passed the major college test already, and this level is a half step back.  Jenkins didn't take a step back to "prove" himself.  Not to argue in a petty way (too late?), but I think A+ is where there would be difficulty if he's not the guy they thought he was in college, the Lemon Test.  If he strikes out 25% of the time there or can't barrel the ball, etc., that's trouble.

My initial downside thoughts when drafted were that he wouldn't end up at shortstop, wouldn't produce much power, and potentially would strike out too much for that profile.  His small sample isolated power in wooden bat Cape Cod League was .048, which might suggest problems.  He's got athleticism, and I'm under the impression he has a quick bat.  That might be good for a decent hit tool.  But the 21st pick in the draft isn't usually a good to very good MLBer, and his consensus was lower than 21 by quite a bit.  And the Twins have generally not done well taking a guy a guy higher than consensus (that is, there is nothing special about Twins' scouting).

I don't know what to think, though.  Sometimes it's just all about adapting, and KC might be good there, we'll see.  Royce Lewis adapted, Trevor Larnach not so much, though he started with power.  At this point, I think the range of outcomes is very wide, from a cup of coffee guy to a regular.  I'd be shocked if he were more than than or less than that, but he could easily be a non-power Yunior Severino if things don't go right.  He's only three years behind YS.  There needs to be fielding value and hit value, the latter of which will show itself in minor league strikeout rate, probably.  15% (at A+ on) good, 25+% bad, class A+ and above.

Culpepper, like Winokur, is around #20 in my rankings until I see him succeed in the step up that A+ is.  If KC is treading water at age 22 in Cedar Rapids, that's bad value, bad on Twins scouting.  Lemon Test still to come. :-)

[Omgbenji]

Damn, I’ve been interested in Winokur since his draft write up. Great to see him explode. Do you guys see that absolute grand slam of a 2023 draft?? 
Jenkins

Soto

Keaschall

Winokur

Tanner Hall

AND 2022

Lee, Prielipp, Schobel, Zebby, Morris, Lewis, Culpepper, Ross, Schuffield!!!

Awesome drafts!!

 

 

[nova_twins]

Hitting in the Bigs is hard, so any prospect can be doubted in that regard . . . Look at how Wyatt Langford has struggled this year, for one example. Or Torkelson completely busting. 

Winokur was a known commodity for the 2023 draft but it seems that other clubs weren't very interested at the $1.5 million price point, which is mid 2nd round money. With his 120 RC+ in A-ball at 19, Winokur is outpacing most similar 2023 signees and definitely tracking up in prospect status. 

Important to keep in mind that ceiling is disproportionately valuable, and Winokur has that. 

[LA Vikes Fan]

What do you guys know about Payton Eeles? I happened to look at the St Paul roster to see if there was an available SS to spell Castro, and it looks like he’s been playing there a lot. He’s shot up 3 levels this year and it appears like this is his first year out of college. He’s hitting over.300 in AAA. Is he a real prospect? Looks like it. 

[Dman]

2 hours ago, twinstalker said:

Except he passed the major college test already, and this level is a half step back.  Jenkins didn't take a step back to "prove" himself.  Not to argue in a petty way (too late?), but I think A+ is where there would be difficulty if he's not the guy they thought he was in college, the Lemon Test.  If he strikes out 25% of the time there or can't barrel the ball, etc., that's trouble.

My initial downside thoughts when drafted were that he wouldn't end up at shortstop, wouldn't produce much power, and potentially would strike out too much for that profile.  His small sample isolated power in wooden bat Cape Cod League was .048, which might suggest problems.  He's got athleticism, and I'm under the impression he has a quick bat.  That might be good for a decent hit tool.  But the 21st pick in the draft isn't usually a good to very good MLBer, and his consensus was lower than 21 by quite a bit.  And the Twins have generally not done well taking a guy a guy higher than consensus (that is, there is nothing special about Twins' scouting).

I don't know what to think, though.  Sometimes it's just all about adapting, and KC might be good there, we'll see.  Royce Lewis adapted, Trevor Larnach not so much, though he started with power.  At this point, I think the range of outcomes is very wide, from a cup of coffee guy to a regular.  I'd be shocked if he were more than than or less than that, but he could easily be a non-power Yunior Severino if things don't go right.  He's only three years behind YS.  There needs to be fielding value and hit value, the latter of which will show itself in minor league strikeout rate, probably.  15% (at A+ on) good, 25+% bad, class A+ and above.

Culpepper, like Winokur, is around #20 in my rankings until I see him succeed in the step up that A+ is.  If KC is treading water at age 22 in Cedar Rapids, that's bad value, bad on Twins scouting.  Lemon Test still to come. :-)

I think the main reasons Culpepper dropped were concerns about power and chase rate.  He was one of the few college players that looked legit at short and I don't know if you have watched him yet but he has looked good at short in his SSS at Fort Meyers.  Unless he balloons up I don't see why he couldn't stick there.  I think I like his actions their better than Lee's but they appear close to the same there IMO again SSS.  Probably not elite there but very few are.  I still he think he could be in the very good category yet though.

I don't know what the lemon test is exactly but to me it is someone like Cavaco who never could hit and or maybe even Sabato who has had an above 30% K rate every year since he was drafted.  Granted Sabato was able to draw walks at a good clip until AA.  I don't know how Culpepper would fit as a lemon in any way to this point with his 6% K rate 9% walk rate and .892 OPS.  It's a really small sample right now, but he was projected to have a plus hit tool when drafted and he has done nothing to suggest those projections are wrong to this point.

As you said power was a question mark for him with wooden bats, but so far in A ball in 29 at bats he has a home run and three doubles for a .517 SLG percentage.  It doesn't look like wooden bats are going to keep him down.  I'm not saying he is ever going to have Amick like power, but he'll grow into more power most every player does. I believe he has pull side power and the Twins have been good at helping their players get to more power.  I think he will hold his own there.

Too your point though we won't know anything about how good he will be or if he can make it until AA.  That is the first level where they face much more consistently good to great pitchers with good to elite pitches more often than not.  Guys like Rodriguez and Keaschall who handle that level end up on top 100 lists.  Guys like Schobel and others who falter start falling down team top 30 lists. 

Still I don't think that means we can't celebrate when players are doing really well.  We don't know what the timelines might be for players to figure it out.  We all pretty much gave up on Brent Rooker myself included and now I believe he is top 5 or 10 in OPS in the majors.  He was old for every level and passed to three different teams before making it. Yes the odds are lower for those types of players, but it just shows despite what stats and trends tell us players can beat the odds.

I don't know how Culpepper will do, but I have been very impressed with what I have seen so far.

[Dman]

50 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

What do you guys know about Payton Eeles? I happened to look at the St Paul roster to see if there was an available SS to spell Castro, and it looks like he’s been playing there a lot. He’s shot up 3 levels this year and it appears like this is his first year out of college. He’s hitting over.300 in AAA. Is he a real prospect? Looks like it. 

I would pull up destination the show episode 47 and go to the 57 minute mark.  They have a good discussion about him there.

I thought he was mainly a second baseman and I know they had him out in left field as well.  If he holds those numbers at AAA I think he will make the end of the top 30 list for the Twins.  Lacking some power but has everything else.

[DJL44]

3 hours ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

What do you guys know about Payton Eeles? I happened to look at the St Paul roster to see if there was an available SS to spell Castro, and it looks like he’s been playing there a lot. He’s shot up 3 levels this year and it appears like this is his first year out of college. He’s hitting over.300 in AAA. Is he a real prospect? Looks like it. 

The short answer (pun intended) is no. He is 5'5" which would make him the shortest player in MLB and his arm means he's stuck at 2B or LF positionally. That said, he controls the strike zone pretty well. It would be interesting to see how MLB pitchers go after him since they won't be afraid of his power. Tony Kemp is another short 2B/LF you could use as a comparable.

[mikelink45]

On 8/17/2024 at 1:54 PM, nova_twins said:

Hitting in the Bigs is hard, so any prospect can be doubted in that regard . . . Look at how Wyatt Langford has struggled this year, for one example. Or Torkelson completely busting. 

Winokur was a known commodity for the 2023 draft but it seems that other clubs weren't very interested at the $1.5 million price point, which is mid 2nd round money. With his 120 RC+ in A-ball at 19, Winokur is outpacing most similar 2023 signees and definitely tracking up in prospect status. 

Important to keep in mind that ceiling is disproportionately valuable, and Winokur has that. 

Wyatt Langford is a poor comp for a comparison like this.  Just drafted last year - no minor league seasoning - he is batting 242/311/678/ despite an 18 games slump.  He might go down, but he has shown remarkable ability.  His OPS+ is 93 - not real good, but better than 8 on the BR batting chart for the team.  Better than Lee, Camargo, Austin, Julien, Margot, Farmer and just below Kepler.  I think he will be great, but who knows he could be another Kiriloff (OPS+ for year 80). 

 

[Scott51104]

What I liked about watching Winokur's three homeruns was that he was near second base when the ball landed.