Twins Minor League Report (8/16): Brandon Winokur Does Damage

Winokur - 12 homers at 19 years old in a league where it is both tough to hit and tough to hit homers. Impressive.

2 hours ago, FlyingFinn said:

Winokur - 12 homers at 19 years old in a league where it is both tough to hit and tough to hit homers. Impressive.

Yeah, I feel like we haven't talked much about Winokur this year (maybe in part because of how Keaschall has risen this season) but he's having a pretty solid season, especially considering it's his first full season of pro ball. He's got some things to work on, like making more consistent contact, but his walk rate is also pretty impressive for someone of his age and experience. That 18-5 steals/CS ratio works just fine too.

Culpepper seems to have passed the Gleeman Lemon Test too. Nice to see the new pick off to a good start.

Winokur was drafted in the same draft we picked Jenkins I believe, maybe in a high, compensatory round.  He was always intriguing to me at 6:6 and playing SS and CF.  It indicated to me that the kid had some impressive athleticism and a solid arm. 

Watching the 3 HR's he crushed, I completely agree with whoever said the kid does NOT have a violent swing.  It's smooth and precise.  Not to put this on him, but his swing looks a little like Aaron Judge.  Judge knows he's a big dude and ballparks just must seem small to him.  Unlike the violent swing Sano had, Winokur just seems to know that he doesn't have to overpower the ball to get it to sail out of the park.

I'm not sure he can stay at either SS or CF, although Ripken at 6:4 did at SS for many years and Judge at 6:7 plays a very good CF.  But at 6:6 and with that athleticism, he will be a plus defender wherever he lands...Corner Outfield, 1B or even CF.  He's a guy to keep an eye on.  

As another recent minor league summation revealed - 16 stolen bases!! I distinctly  remember on the day Brandon was drafted drooling over the specs and talent within that 6'6" frame and a daydream comparison floated to my consciousness....Not Judge as noted above, rather, Winfield...Still early, but a little more reality to that initial fantasy. Keep making us proud Brandon! Win Twins!!

Three home run nights gets one's attention, at least mine!  Did not realize how young he is.  Hopefully, will see him at Target Field before he turns 22.

Love seeing Raya with 80+ pitches.  Also good seeing him get into and out of a jam last night.  Sure helps his development.  Great seeing Jenkins with another two hit night with a double.  Seems he has more of those of late.  

Winokur is definitely one of our young prospects to keep an eye on. That new Culpeper also seems like a solid hitter so far in his small sample size. Nice to see Raya get out of the jam, but he needs to seriously work on his control. He's got the stuff to rack up K's, but if he can't limit his walks and find a way to be more efficient, I see a bullpen role in his future.

4 hours ago, FlyingFinn said:

Winokur - 12 homers at 19 years old in a league where it is both tough to hit and tough to hit homers. Impressive.

Hit tool questionable (likely not good, but...variation) and strikeout rate poor.  He seems to be an average to decent player in A with those negatives.  The main positive is age vs level, which is better than average currently (for a true prospect).  At this point he's a wait-and-see.  And he's probably around #20 in this suddenly booming system.

Winokur is a work in progress for sure. Having watched several dozen of his at bats this year via milb.com, I am intrigued by his athleticism. There are whiffs and tough games, to be sure, yet the improvement is continual. Winokur has a good eye at the plate and a smooth swing. Defensively he is good wherever he has played, pretty quick with a strong arm. The power and speed combination in a guy who plays good defense and hits the ball is impressive. Winokur is not an exploding superstar like Witt Jr. or Holliday but he is learning quickly and could be a really good player. Patience.

Aaron Judge made his major league debut approximately 8 years ago at age 23 / 24 - and the rest is history...Winfield debuted at age 21. Just sayin' Twinstalker....But in your precocious prescience you are probably were aware of that!!!

3 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

Culpepper seems to have passed the Gleeman Lemon Test too. Nice to see the new pick off to a good start.

Except he passed the major college test already, and this level is a half step back.  Jenkins didn't take a step back to "prove" himself.  Not to argue in a petty way (too late?), but I think A+ is where there would be difficulty if he's not the guy they thought he was in college, the Lemon Test.  If he strikes out 25% of the time there or can't barrel the ball, etc., that's trouble.

My initial downside thoughts when drafted were that he wouldn't end up at shortstop, wouldn't produce much power, and potentially would strike out too much for that profile.  His small sample isolated power in wooden bat Cape Cod League was .048, which might suggest problems.  He's got athleticism, and I'm under the impression he has a quick bat.  That might be good for a decent hit tool.  But the 21st pick in the draft isn't usually a good to very good MLBer, and his consensus was lower than 21 by quite a bit.  And the Twins have generally not done well taking a guy a guy higher than consensus (that is, there is nothing special about Twins' scouting).

I don't know what to think, though.  Sometimes it's just all about adapting, and KC might be good there, we'll see.  Royce Lewis adapted, Trevor Larnach not so much, though he started with power.  At this point, I think the range of outcomes is very wide, from a cup of coffee guy to a regular.  I'd be shocked if he were more than than or less than that, but he could easily be a non-power Yunior Severino if things don't go right.  He's only three years behind YS.  There needs to be fielding value and hit value, the latter of which will show itself in minor league strikeout rate, probably.  15% (at A+ on) good, 25+% bad, class A+ and above.

Culpepper, like Winokur, is around #20 in my rankings until I see him succeed in the step up that A+ is.  If KC is treading water at age 22 in Cedar Rapids, that's bad value, bad on Twins scouting.  Lemon Test still to come. :-)

Damn, I’ve been interested in Winokur since his draft write up. Great to see him explode. Do you guys see that absolute grand slam of a 2023 draft?? 
Jenkins

Soto

Keaschall

Winokur

Tanner Hall

AND 2022

Lee, Prielipp, Schobel, Zebby, Morris, Lewis, Culpepper, Ross, Schuffield!!!

Awesome drafts!!

Hitting in the Bigs is hard, so any prospect can be doubted in that regard . . . Look at how Wyatt Langford has struggled this year, for one example. Or Torkelson completely busting. 

Winokur was a known commodity for the 2023 draft but it seems that other clubs weren't very interested at the $1.5 million price point, which is mid 2nd round money. With his 120 RC+ in A-ball at 19, Winokur is outpacing most similar 2023 signees and definitely tracking up in prospect status. 

Important to keep in mind that ceiling is disproportionately valuable, and Winokur has that. 

3 hours ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

What do you guys know about Payton Eeles? I happened to look at the St Paul roster to see if there was an available SS to spell Castro, and it looks like he’s been playing there a lot. He’s shot up 3 levels this year and it appears like this is his first year out of college. He’s hitting over.300 in AAA. Is he a real prospect? Looks like it. 

The short answer (pun intended) is no. He is 5'5" which would make him the shortest player in MLB and his arm means he's stuck at 2B or LF positionally. That said, he controls the strike zone pretty well. It would be interesting to see how MLB pitchers go after him since they won't be afraid of his power. Tony Kemp is another short 2B/LF you could use as a comparable.

What I liked about watching Winokur's three homeruns was that he was near second base when the ball landed.