It’s Time to Take the Royals Seriously

[Ted Schwerzler]

The Minnesota Twins have been attempting to track down the Cleveland Guardians for most of the season. They have yet to accomplish that, but it’s also time to start taking the Kansas City Royals seriously as all three clubs jockey for Wild Card standing.

From the start of the season, the AL Central has been a three-team race between the Twins, the Guardians, and the Royals. At the trade deadline, both of those other organizations went out and sought opportunities to get better. The Twins, stifled by ownership, did not.

Arguably, the Twins didn't need external additions as much as either Cleveland or Kansas City. They're the most talented team in that bunch, and reinforcements will come as some key players return from the injured list. Still, the standings tell the story: all three of these clubs are legitimate contenders. Each has a strong run differential in support of their record, and in fact, the Royals' is the best of the bunch.

FanGraphs leans into both the Guardians and Twins having better postseason odds than the Royals. That’s probably a fair stance, but Kansas City simply hasn’t gone away.

Coming into the year, some pundits had lofty expectations for the Royals. That seemed to be somewhat far-fetched. The Royals won just 56 games last year, and even a considerable improvement could leave them shy of .500. They appear set to blow by that, though.

It’s probably time to stop expecting the pitching to fall off. This offseason, the Royals went out and added Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha. The former owns a 2.57 ERA and should earn legitimate consideration for the Cy Young Award. The latter has been a consistent bet each time out, and hasn’t allowed there to be a weak spot in the rotation. That pair, combined with Cole Ragans, who was an All-Star and leads the pitching staff in fWAR, comprises a formidable group.

Then there’s Bobby Witt Jr. Aaron Judge and Gunnar Henderson have him boxed out a bit for the AL MVP, but he's forced his way into the conversation. He has been nothing short of incredible, and seems to keep getting better. He’s leading baseball in batting average, while having also eclipsed 20 home runs and 20 stolen bases. There is nothing Witt can’t do on a diamond, and the Twins have seen plenty of that firsthand.

It’s not just Witt, either. Salvador Perez continues to sip from the fountain of youth, and has been the team’s second-most productive player. Vinnie Pasquantino and Maikel García have made an impact, as well. The lineup isn’t perfect, but it has been good enough to support that strong pitching staff most of the way.

Minnesota still has another six games with the Royals this season. They lead the season series 5-2, but have a -5 run differential in those games. The Twins also have eight games left with Cleveland, and are 0-5 with a -15 run differential against them. This race is far from over, either way. It's too early, even, to narrow the focus to just two teams.

Image courtesy of © Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports

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[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

They're a good defensive team which is helping to prop up fairly average pitching and an average offense. Bullpen is very bad.

It's a nice year for them, but it's taken Bobby Witt challenging Aaron Judge for the MVP and an incredible performance from Seth Lugo to get them here. They're just too top heavy of a team at the moment.

They're much better than I thought they'd be, though. 

[FlyingFinn]

I'm not sure the Royals trading for guys makes them that much better. Signing Lugo last winter has really made a huge difference this year. They nailed that signing.

[mikelink45]

I love the KC team - they have a balance of pitching, hitting and defense that is really outstanding.  And Bobby Witt is really living up to his prospect projections. Our team looks so much better because we are so familiar with all of them.

[BH67]

Only now you're taking the Royals seriously? Their confidence has been evident all season, and their play over the last three weeks has demonstrated they can get over a slump with resilience. To be fair, the same can be said of last year's Twins, and there's sufficient evidence of me here being doubtful about them until Labor Day.

The trades the Royals made last off-season to get better are the ones Falvine will need to make in the following one, likely at a less steep price than what Tanner Scott cost last week.

[Road trip]

Hard team to figure out, the Royals.

They might have the worst hitting outfield in MLB.  The bullpen is abysmal.  Bench depth is poor.  Their lineup is pretty young.

But they send out a good starting pitcher pretty much every night.  Witt Jr, has possibly become the best player in the AL (don't tell that to New Yorkers).  They have a ton of speed to cover ground in the field and steal bases at every logical opportunity.  

They kind of remind me of the Royals circa 2014, minus the bullpen.  I still think the Twins roster is better... but there is some reason for concern.

[thelanges5]

KC leads the league with .840 with RISP

CLE is 4th

MN is 20th

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

The Twins are to the Royals what the Guardians have been to the Twins.

I'm not concerned about Kansas City.

[Brandon]

The offense mostly consists of 4 players and 5 ? Marks nightly.   If one of the 4 slumps or gets injured they are in trouble offensively.  I’m surprised they didn’t try harder for an OF at the deadline.  I’m glad they are doing well.  

[jkcarew]

Both Cleveland and KC have a ton of young guys that might continue to get better over the next few seasons…as does Detroit for that matter, and they’re almost average now.

The Twins are still in a decent spot overall. I don’t mind the bar being raised for the Twins to ‘compete’. Sets up a better chance to make a run if/when you make the postseason, IMO.

[roger]

Always read the box scores every morning over coffee.  Have been asking myself for months, is Bobby Witt the best player in baseball?  

[Karbo]

2 hours ago, CCHOF5yearstoolate said:

They're a good defensive team which is helping to prop up fairly average pitching and an average offense. Bullpen is very bad.

It's a nice year for them, but it's taken Bobby Witt challenging Aaron Judge for the MVP and an incredible performance from Seth Lugo to get them here. They're just too top heavy of a team at the moment.

They're much better than I thought they'd be, though. 

Remember at the start of the season, The "experts" tried to sell us on the bullpen being one of the top in the league? Getting Varland up in the pen is probably going to need to be done sooner rather than later. 

[Karbo]

1 hour ago, Road trip said:

Hard team to figure out, the Royals.

They might have the worst hitting outfield in MLB.  The bullpen is abysmal.  Bench depth is poor.  Their lineup is pretty young.

But they send out a good starting pitcher pretty much every night.  Witt Jr, has possibly become the best player in the AL (don't tell that to New Yorkers).  They have a ton of speed to cover ground in the field and steal bases at every logical opportunity.  

They kind of remind me of the Royals circa 2014, minus the bullpen.  I still think the Twins roster is better... but there is some reason for concern.

kind of reminds me of the Piranhas

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

8 minutes ago, Karbo said:

Remember at the start of the season, The "experts" tried to sell us on the bullpen being one of the top in the league? Getting Varland up in the pen is probably going to need to be done sooner rather than later. 

Which team? Twins bullpen is 12th in ERA but 4th in FIP. Royals are 22nd & 23rd. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

Gotta say, I can really see a scenario where KC and MN finish ahead of Cleveland in the central.

Everyone has to stay healthy. I don't at all trust KC's depth. Probably the least depth of the 3 MN/Cle/KC. That said, Witt is REALLY good. He might be the best player in the American League. 

Baseball is fun when there is competition like this. 

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

ESPN currently ranks the Royals' farm system 26th in baseball. They have a perfect story on elite young player mixed with veterans having bounce back or career years. Kudos to them for being more aggressive in free agency than prior years but the Royals' long-term success depends on their pipeline from the minors. 2024 could be an outlier. We shall see.

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

Twins' ranked 4th, BTW...

[Blyleven2011]

It's been said before , anyone can win on any given day ...

It's a 3 team race for the central division  , I'm liking our chances  to win it alot more than at the beginning of the season ...

It's exciting to be in the race ...

 

Go twins ...

[tony&rodney]

I started having a healthy dose of respect for the Royals when they swept the Astros last season. Kansas City has improved since that time, quite a bit.

While I like the Twins chances if everyone performs, Witt Jr. is a superstar who far outshines anything that Minnesota can bring to the plate. 

I'm hoping that the Twins win the ALCentral and that both Cleveland and Kansas City are Wild Card teams.

[mikelink45]

4 hours ago, Road trip said:

Hard team to figure out, the Royals.

They might have the worst hitting outfield in MLB.  The bullpen is abysmal.  Bench depth is poor.  Their lineup is pretty young.

But they send out a good starting pitcher pretty much every night.  Witt Jr, has possibly become the best player in the AL (don't tell that to New Yorkers).  They have a ton of speed to cover ground in the field and steal bases at every logical opportunity.  

They kind of remind me of the Royals circa 2014, minus the bullpen.  I still think the Twins roster is better... but there is some reason for concern.

That is why they traded for BP help - something we did not need.

[Rufus]

Seems to it has been time to do that since April. 

[DJL44]

4 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

While I like the Twins chances if everyone performs, Witt Jr. is a superstar who far outshines anything that Minnesota can bring to the plate. 

Royce Lewis just hit his 30th home run in his 103rd game played. That's a 47 HR pace in a 162 game season.

[tony&rodney]

21 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Royce Lewis just hit his 30th home run in his 103rd game played. That's a 47 HR pace in a 162 game season.

We all love Royce Lewis and we hope he leads us to the World Series, but he has not even played 162 games in his career. There isn't any comparison between the two players, Witt Jr. is better at everything: hitting, power, fielding throwing, and running. Lewis is also a year older. This from a  diehard Twins fan. 

[mnfireman]

Boston held on to beat KC tonight, a win tomorrow and Boston moves up to the 3rd WC.

[DJL44]

10 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

We all love Royce Lewis and we hope he leads us to the World Series, but he has not even played 162 games in his career. There isn't any comparison between the two players, Witt Jr. is better at everything: hitting, power, fielding throwing, and running. Lewis is also a year older. This from a  diehard Twins fan. 

Witt is better at fielding, throwing, running and staying healthy but I'm not convinced he is better at hitting.

[tony&rodney]

3 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Witt is better at fielding, throwing, running and staying healthy but I'm not convinced he is better at hitting.

Like I said, we all love Royce Lewis. Bobby Witt Jr. is on a whole different level than Royce though. You could probably get 100-1 odds or better that Lewis never puts up a season of numbers that equals those that Witt Jr. has already put up in the last three seasons and Bobby is improving. Witt Jr. is a superstar, different but mentioned right up there with Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani (unicorn).

Again, let's hope Royce leads us into the World Series but we shouldn't put unrealistic expectations on him. 

[DJL44]

Player 2024 OPS+ career OPS+

Lewis 182 160

Witt 165 125

I'm not convinced Witt is better than Royce Lewis at hitting.

[mikelink45]

18 hours ago, CCHOF5yearstoolate said:

Which team? Twins bullpen is 12th in ERA but 4th in FIP. Royals are 22nd & 23rd. 

Who cares about FIP - you win and lose depending on how many runs you score and how many the other team scores - real scores.  The Royals went out and got two more RP.  Good for them.  I do not root for them or want them to beat out the Twins, but I do want to acknowledge what they are accomplishing. 

[mikelink45]

19 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Player 2024 OPS+ career OPS+

Lewis 182 160

Witt 165 125

I'm not convinced Witt is better than Royce Lewis at hitting.

So far he is better at staying healthy.  I really want to see a full year of Lewis - he is really special, but so is Witt. 

[bean5302]

42 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

Who cares about FIP - you win and lose depending on how many runs you score and how many the other team scores - real scores.  The Royals went out and got two more RP.  Good for them.  I do not root for them or want them to beat out the Twins, but I do want to acknowledge what they are accomplishing. 

FIP is a predictive stat, but as we approach a full season, ERA is more important to me. What actually happened vs. what a spreadsheet thinks should have happened. Looking at FIP vs. ERA, you can get a feel for how you might expect things to play out going forward. At a team level, having the two be way out of sync is unusual so you might expect a correction going forward.

I prefer bWAR over fWAR for pitchers when looking at multiple years, but I generally prefer fWAR over bWAR during the season.