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From the start of the season, the AL Central has been a three-team race between the Twins, the Guardians, and the Royals. At the trade deadline, both of those other organizations went out and sought opportunities to get better. The Twins, stifled by ownership, did not.
Arguably, the Twins didn't need external additions as much as either Cleveland or Kansas City. They're the most talented team in that bunch, and reinforcements will come as some key players return from the injured list. Still, the standings tell the story: all three of these clubs are legitimate contenders. Each has a strong run differential in support of their record, and in fact, the Royals' is the best of the bunch.
FanGraphs leans into both the Guardians and Twins having better postseason odds than the Royals. That’s probably a fair stance, but Kansas City simply hasn’t gone away.
Coming into the year, some pundits had lofty expectations for the Royals. That seemed to be somewhat far-fetched. The Royals won just 56 games last year, and even a considerable improvement could leave them shy of .500. They appear set to blow by that, though.
It’s probably time to stop expecting the pitching to fall off. This offseason, the Royals went out and added Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha. The former owns a 2.57 ERA and should earn legitimate consideration for the Cy Young Award. The latter has been a consistent bet each time out, and hasn’t allowed there to be a weak spot in the rotation. That pair, combined with Cole Ragans, who was an All-Star and leads the pitching staff in fWAR, comprises a formidable group.
Then there’s Bobby Witt Jr. Aaron Judge and Gunnar Henderson have him boxed out a bit for the AL MVP, but he's forced his way into the conversation. He has been nothing short of incredible, and seems to keep getting better. He’s leading baseball in batting average, while having also eclipsed 20 home runs and 20 stolen bases. There is nothing Witt can’t do on a diamond, and the Twins have seen plenty of that firsthand.
It’s not just Witt, either. Salvador Perez continues to sip from the fountain of youth, and has been the team’s second-most productive player. Vinnie Pasquantino and Maikel García have made an impact, as well. The lineup isn’t perfect, but it has been good enough to support that strong pitching staff most of the way.
Minnesota still has another six games with the Royals this season. They lead the season series 5-2, but have a -5 run differential in those games. The Twins also have eight games left with Cleveland, and are 0-5 with a -15 run differential against them. This race is far from over, either way. It's too early, even, to narrow the focus to just two teams.
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