Prospects, Players, or Patience? The Twins Must Choose.

[Cody Christie]

MLB’s expanded playoffs means many teams are trying to decide whether or not to be buyers or sellers. Because of this parity, the Twins have three strategies they can follow before Tuesday’s trade deadline.

Image courtesy of Jim Cowsert-USA TODAY Sports

The Twins are clearly in the playoff hunt, making them an obvious buyer. However, the trade deadline has taken on a different vibe, with teams waiting until the last minute to decide whether to be buyers or sellers. Minnesota’s front office has been clear about wanting to add starting pitching, but that depends on which strategy the front office utilizes in the coming days.  

1. Pay a Prospect Premium
MLB’s traditional trade deadline involves teams in contention trading prospects to non-contending teams. Minnesota has one of baseball’s best farm systems with somewhere between five and seven top-100 global prospects. Many of these top prospects are in or approaching the upper minors, making them more intriguing to selling teams.

This depth gives the Twins options and the current front office regime has been aggressive at previous trade deadlines. Minnesota also understands that there are more buyers than sellers, driving up the cost of players on teams who are clearly out of the playoff race. It might not be worth the prospect premium to outbid other contending teams. 

2. Deal MLB players for MLB players
Twins general manager Thad Levine recently joined Jayson Stark and Doug Glanville on an episode of The Windup. The focus of the interview was Levine’s connections to recent Hall of Famers Adrian Beltré, Joe Mauer, and Todd Helton. During the interview, Stark asked Levine about the upcoming trade deadline, and he discussed the difficulties of having so many teams close to the playoffs. Levine said the Twins have been actively looking for trades with other contending teams in MLB-for-MLB player swaps.

On the Twins, this could mean trading away players like Max Kepler, Matt Wallner, Jose Miranda, Edouard Julien, Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach, or other similar players. Minnesota would likely want to get pitching back in a trade involving those players. 

3. Stand Pat and Rely on Internal Options
Minnesota followed this strategy last season for multiple reasons. Players were returning from injury or could switch to different roles, and there was depth in the farm system. The Twins have a similar situation in 2024 with Royce Lewis and José Miranda rejoining the team over the weekend and Carlos Correa’s return on the horizon.

On the pitching side, young pitchers like David Festa, Zebby Matthews, or Louie Varland can add rotational depth or switch to a bullpen role if needed for the playoffs. In the abovementioned interview, Levine seemed content with the team’s depth if the team stood pat at the deadline. 

Overall, the Twins are attempting to make a move to add pitching depth, but the front office values the team’s current prospect depth. To have a successful trade deadline, the front office may need to combine some of the abovementioned strategies to acquire players to help the team in 2024 and beyond. 

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Which strategy will the Twins execute before Tuesday’s trade deadline? Can they effectively combine more than one of the above strategies? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

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[bean5302]

I don't think depth is a concern for the Twins. They're an incredibly deep team, IMHO. The issue is the top of the rotation, as has been the case seemingly almost forever outside of last year.

[Karbo]

Atrade for Snell would be great, but I don't know if this FO is open to taking a chance like that. Especially after the Mahle trade.

[BH67]

If the Twins want to add a genuine ace for the 2024 stretch run, they now have the depth in the farm system to make this happen and still keep elite prospects for the future. But only someone with considerably more upside this autumn than Tyler Mahle would justify such a move.

[Whitey333]

Twins won't do much of any significance at the trade deadline IMO.  They should find a major league manager.  Today's starting lineup against the Tigers is a joke.  Looks like another one of Baldellis throwaway games with nk Lewis and no Buxton in the starting lineup.  I believe if we had a true manager that cared about winning games more than always following the iron clad "process over results" we would be in first place in the Central 

[Dman]

I think about the question posed in the article a lot and I go back and forth on it a lot. The tough part for me about the deadline is that you have to pay a premium for a two month rental and an even greater premium for guys with an extra year.  Also how much value does just that one player bring with them? If the Twins recent past is any indication they would have been better off not doing deadline deals. Still the Braves and Rangers likely don't win the World Series without their savvy deadline acquisitions.  It's a risky gamble for every contending team every year and only one team comes out on top so the odds are fairly low that your moves make your team better than the rest.

I think appetite for risk comes down to three things.  short term team outlook, long term team outlook and available payroll.

In the short term outlook who cares about prospects they are just assets that allow you to fill holes on the MLB roster to make it stronger.  If you deplete your farm and have the money to spend up to or over the cap even if you make some bad trades you can still buy players in the offseason to strengthen your club.  The short term outlook is putting all your chips into the middle every deadline until you have no chips left.

The long term view is building a team via prospects to create a core group and then fill holes from there.  The farm is the main source of talent as long term building is generally for teams with lower budgets as they can't afford much high priced talent.  There does come a point though where a long term building team has to push their chips into the middle as the core of its good players is going to get too expensive to retain.

I think the Twins are in the long term outlook category.  They need to protect their prospects if they are going to sustain being a competitive team and not tear down and rebuild.  Does that mean they can't trade away any of their prospects of course not, but trading long term assets for short term ones does bite harder for smaller market teams.  

Is this a year to go all in?  I don't think so, but it clearly can be argued that a difference making starter could make a large difference in the post season for the Twins.  If it were me I would be looking for a more elite lefty reliever and call it a deadline.  We'll see what the Twins do.

[bean5302]

8 minutes ago, Karbo said:

Atrade for Snell would be great, but I don't know if this FO is open to taking a chance like that. Especially after the Mahle trade.

Fairly different scenario. Mahle was a guy producing back end arm numbers who the F.O. thought would be a mid rotation guy away from Great American Ballpark. He came with multiple years of team control and a cheap salary.

Falvey is on the final year of his contract, and he was put on notice last year that expectations were raised. If the Twins miss the playoffs, it seems unlikely Falvey keeps his job. If the Twins fail to advance in the playoffs, it's pretty questionable Falvey keeps his job. There's a lot of reason to be aggressive here.

[Brandon]

12 minutes ago, Karbo said:

Atrade for Snell would be great, but I don't know if this FO is open to taking a chance like that. Especially after the Mahle trade.

They won’t trade for Snell because he has the option of making the team pay him 30 million next season.  The Twins already said they want a rental only.

[bean5302]

9 minutes ago, Dman said:

I think about the question posed in the article a lot and I go back and forth on it a lot. The tough part for me about the deadline is that you have to pay a premium for a two month rental and an even greater premium for guys with an extra year...

It comes down to a couple things IMHO.
1. The AL Central does not look like it's going to be AAAA level anymore.
2. Playoff appearances are far from guaranteed even in a weak division (2021-2022 for example).
3. Playoffs are different from the regular season because you only face the best starters.

Fangraphs talked about the value of wins in an article. Wins aren't worth the same to all teams. A 60 win team getting to 61 wins is not the same as a 89 win team getting to 90 wins in terms of value. It's not what an ace does for you over the course of the regular season. It's what they do for you in the playoffs.

1987 - The Twins weren't a great team, but they did have 2 very strong starters. Frank Viola and Bert Blyleven.
1991 - The Twins were a good team and they had Kevin Tapani and Scott Erickson leading the rotation.

Having 2 great starters, and even better if you have a 3rd very good pitcher, makes it so much more likely to win a playoff series when a single run has such a huge impact on the outcome of winning percentage when it's critical.

It's also worth noting. What happens if Ryan or Lopez goes down? Does the rotation still have the oomph it needs to be competitive in the playoffs?

[Brandon]

24 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Fairly different scenario. Mahle was a guy producing back end arm numbers who the F.O. thought would be a mid rotation guy away from Great American Ballpark. He came with multiple years of team control and a cheap salary.

Falvey is on the final year of his contract, and he was put on notice last year that expectations were raised. If the Twins miss the playoffs, it seems unlikely Falvey keeps his job. If the Twins fail to advance in the playoffs, it's pretty questionable Falvey keeps his job. There's a lot of reason to be aggressive here.

I think at this point Falvey has done enough to earn another contract if he hasn’t received one yet.  Pitchers are coming up through the system.  Mathew’s, Festa, woods-Richardson, Ober, Lewis, Culpepper, Varland, are either up/ about ready/ or on the way.  There are others too.  And they’ve figured out depth is the 🔑 key for the team in the regular season as Him and Levine have been good at finding a 6th starter who can be competitive and building a deep bench on the cheap and having a deep lineup of atleast slightly above average players.  

[bean5302]

Just now, Brandon said:

I think at this point Falvey has done enough to earn another contract if he hasn’t received one yet.  Pitchers are coming up through the system.  Mathew’s, Festa, woods-Richardson, Ober, Lewis, Culpepper, Varland, are either up/ about ready/ or on the way.  There are others too.  

If he did, he'd have an extension, and he wouldn't be on the lame duck status. GMs getting to their final year = hot seat. Joe Pohlad basically stated the Twins needed to be advancing in the playoffs. That was the new bar right now. 

[Brandon]

As far as acquiring a starting pitcher you have to decide is this worth it.  There would be a possible 11 starts left in the regular season.  Will the new pitcher be an ace and have 8 quality starts or be mid rotation for 6-7 quality starts and compare that to how many quality starts can we get from Dobnak/ Festa/ Mathew’s/ Varland/ Paddack/ Woods-Richardson.  From there you have to look at the cost.  What’s it worth to have 2-4 more quality starts?  Do we pull the trigger on the cost?  
 

if we can get 4 we should absolutely try to find a way.  1-2 depends on how likely you think we will be caught in the standings if we don’t.  
 

if we could get Kickuchi for a package of Dobnak, Severino, and another 15-25 ranked prospect, I would be fine with that.  Maybe Schobel ….  I wonder what it would cost to get Flaherty in a trade?  

[Dman]

3 hours ago, bean5302 said:

It comes down to a couple things IMHO.
1. The AL Central does not look like it's going to be AAAA level anymore.
2. Playoff appearances are far from guaranteed even in a weak division (2021-2022 for example).
3. Playoffs are different from the regular season because you only face the best starters.

Fangraphs talked about the value of wins in an article. Wins aren't worth the same to all teams. A 60 win team getting to 61 wins is not the same as a 89 win team getting to 90 wins in terms of value. It's not what an ace does for you over the course of the regular season. It's what they do for you in the playoffs.

1987 - The Twins weren't a great team, but they did have 2 very strong starters. Frank Viola and Bert Blyleven.
1991 - The Twins were a good team and they had Kevin Tapani and Scott Erickson leading the rotation.

Having 2 great starters, and even better if you have a 3rd very good pitcher, makes it so much more likely to win a playoff series when a single run has such a huge impact on the outcome of winning percentage when it's critical.

It's also worth noting. What happens if Ryan or Lopez goes down? Does the rotation still have the oomph it needs to be competitive in the playoffs?

For 87 I think Pablo could be our Viola and Ober or Ryan as good as a late in his career Blyleven.

91 proves your point more while they didn't get Morris at the deadline he was the difference maker in the World Series for them. They got him in the offseason though.

I think they have three starters who can compete well in the playoff's.  And most of the playoff loses for the Twins were the offense not performing and or the pen melting down.  It takes the whole team performing not just your ace pitcher.  

I'd have to look, but IIRC I don't think Sherzer or Verlander helped their teams that much in the playoffs last year and they were expensive acquisition's last year.  Getting "your guy" doesn't guarantee victory, but sure it can give you a better chance.

[Blyleven2011]

51 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

It comes down to a couple things IMHO.
1. The AL Central does not look like it's going to be AAAA level anymore.
2. Playoff appearances are far from guaranteed even in a weak division (2021-2022 for example).
3. Playoffs are different from the regular season because you only face the best starters.

Fangraphs talked about the value of wins in an article. Wins aren't worth the same to all teams. A 60 win team getting to 61 wins is not the same as a 89 win team getting to 90 wins in terms of value. It's not what an ace does for you over the course of the regular season. It's what they do for you in the playoffs.

1987 - The Twins weren't a great team, but they did have 2 very strong starters. Frank Viola and Bert Blyleven.
1991 - The Twins were a good team and they had Kevin Tapani and Scott Erickson leading the rotation.

Having 2 great starters, and even better if you have a 3rd very good pitcher, makes it so much more likely to win a playoff series when a single run has such a huge impact on the outcome of winning percentage when it's critical.

It's also worth noting. What happens if Ryan or Lopez goes down? Does the rotation still have the oomph it needs to be competitive in the playoffs?

If Ryan or Lopez goes down , randy dobnak will be starting pitcher in yankee stadium  for the playoffs ...

Hehehe  ...

[bean5302]

5 minutes ago, Dman said:

For 87 I think Pedro could be our Viola and Ober or Ryan as good as a late in his career Blyleven.

91 proves your point more while they didn't get Morris at the deadline he was the difference maker in the World Series for them. They got him in the offseason though.

I think they have three starters who can compete well in the playoff's.  And most of the playoff loses for the Twins were the offense not performing and or the pen melting down.  It takes the whole team performing not just your ace pitcher.  

I'd have to look, but IIRC I don't think Sherzer or Verlander helped their teams that much in the playoffs last year and they were expensive acquisition's last year.  Getting "your guy" doesn't guarantee victory, but sure it can give you a better chance.

Lopez = Viola? Viola was as good as Johan Santana in his prime back then, and he put up 8.1 WAR in 1987. Lopez is a fine mid/back end #2 when he has a good season. Blyleven put up 4.4 WAR in 1987 and was close to the Cy Young in 1989 with the Angels. Later career Blyleven was still very good, just not generally elite. Blyleven (ERA+ 115 in 1987) is a good comp for Lopez (ERA+ 117 in 2023), not Viola.

No player guarantees victory, but having a strong 1-2 is a huge plus. If the Twins lost Lopez or Ryan without making a move, they'd almost certainly be a one and done team IMHO. 

[gman]

I wonder if Pohlad made his decision about Falvey before or after he cut payroll by 20%. I think at this point Falvey could find a much better situation for him self and take a lot of the front office staff with him. Then we can go back to the day of Ryan which many on this site would seemingly really enjoy.

[Heistyman]

There's an ACE pitching in Mexico that could be signed on a prove it deal.  Trevor Bauer is getting overly punished and his interviews recently he sounds like a changed man.

[Dman]

57 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Lopez = Viola? Viola was as good as Johan Santana in his prime back then, and he put up 8.1 WAR in 1987. Lopez is a fine mid/back end #2 when he has a good season. Blyleven put up 4.4 WAR in 1987 and was close to the Cy Young in 1989 with the Angels. Later career Blyleven was still very good, just not generally elite. Blyleven (ERA+ 115 in 1987) is a good comp for Lopez (ERA+ 117 in 2023), not Viola.

No player guarantees victory, but having a strong 1-2 is a huge plus. If the Twins lost Lopez or Ryan without making a move, they'd almost certainly be a one and done team IMHO. 

Fangraphs shows Viola's WAR at 5.4 for 1987.

 

Pablo was at 4.5 last year.  Yeah I'd say that's fairly close. Clearly Viola was better but not out of the realm better.

FWIW Blyleven's WAR in 87 was 2.2. Baily Obers WAR last year was 2.4. Joe Ryan's was 2.2 last year and he already sits at 3.,1 this year.

[HerbieFan]

3 hours ago, bean5302 said:

It comes down to a couple things IMHO.
1. The AL Central does not look like it's going to be AAAA level anymore.
2. Playoff appearances are far from guaranteed even in a weak division (2021-2022 for example).
3. Playoffs are different from the regular season because you only face the best starters.

Fangraphs talked about the value of wins in an article. Wins aren't worth the same to all teams. A 60 win team getting to 61 wins is not the same as a 89 win team getting to 90 wins in terms of value. It's not what an ace does for you over the course of the regular season. It's what they do for you in the playoffs.

1987 - The Twins weren't a great team, but they did have 2 very strong starters. Frank Viola and Bert Blyleven.
1991 - The Twins were a good team and they had Kevin Tapani and Scott Erickson leading the rotation.

Having 2 great starters, and even better if you have a 3rd very good pitcher, makes it so much more likely to win a playoff series when a single run has such a huge impact on the outcome of winning percentage when it's critical.

It's also worth noting. What happens if Ryan or Lopez goes down? Does the rotation still have the oomph it needs to be competitive in the playoffs?

Ummm.  Jack Morris was pretty ok in 1991 as well :)

[mikelink45]

I am not ready to make a big move.  I am impressed by the next layers of SP and am content to ride with what we have.  I am especially not interested in a rental and I know they lean that way.  We lose prospect potential and have the same debate next year.  If we were interested in a guy like Snell we should have resigned Gray.

[ashbury]

Without a mention of words like "payroll" or "salary" the article seems incomplete in the broad analysis it offers.  At minimum, assumptions on payroll based on off-season FO comments shift the likelihood toward "standing pat", versus trading away for anything likely to be available.

[terrydactyls]

Based on trades made this weekend, the prospect cost might be a lot less than normal.

[Dman]

4 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Lopez = Viola? Viola was as good as Johan Santana in his prime back then, and he put up 8.1 WAR in 1987. Lopez is a fine mid/back end #2 when he has a good season. Blyleven put up 4.4 WAR in 1987 and was close to the Cy Young in 1989 with the Angels. Later career Blyleven was still very good, just not generally elite. Blyleven (ERA+ 115 in 1987) is a good comp for Lopez (ERA+ 117 in 2023), not Viola.

No player guarantees victory, but having a strong 1-2 is a huge plus. If the Twins lost Lopez or Ryan without making a move, they'd almost certainly be a one and done team IMHO. 

I see BR's WAR is very different from Fangraphs.  I have no idea whose is more accurate, but I see where you are coming from if BR's is the most accurate.  Pretty wild that they would be "that" different. It makes me wonder if BR changed their WAR calculation at some point because Fangraphs seems more consistent IMO.  The way they calculate now BR has a lower WAR than Fangraphs where as Fangraphs has a lower calc for Viola.  I don't get it but it has us talking apples and oranges right now.

[wabene]

I don't think anyone's seat is even remotely warm. 

My guess is any move made will be minor, maybe a reliever. Now if they get some extra cash that they are required to spend, the "media disruption distribution", that might change things.

[PuckettProtector]

abovementioned is not a word. 

[Craig Arko]

14 minutes ago, PuckettProtector said:

abovementioned is not a word. 

And sentences begin with a capital letter. :)

[PuckettProtector]

Pedant is pedantic. :)

[Craig Arko]

1 minute ago, PuckettProtector said:

Pedant is pedantic. :)

Tautologically speaking.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

7 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Lopez = Viola? Viola was as good as Johan Santana in his prime back then, and he put up 8.1 WAR in 1987. Lopez is a fine mid/back end #2 when he has a good season. Blyleven put up 4.4 WAR in 1987 and was close to the Cy Young in 1989 with the Angels. Later career Blyleven was still very good, just not generally elite. Blyleven (ERA+ 115 in 1987) is a good comp for Lopez (ERA+ 117 in 2023), not Viola.

No player guarantees victory, but having a strong 1-2 is a huge plus. If the Twins lost Lopez or Ryan without making a move, they'd almost certainly be a one and done team IMHO. 

Agreed, though WAR comp isn’t apples to apples, starters don’t go 8 innings very often anymore.

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

Agreed, though WAR comp isn’t apples to apples, starters don’t go 8 innings very often anymore.

I through WAR in there just as a reference. You don't get to 8 WAR (BRef bases it on ERA+) without being pretty outstanding, regardless of the era.