Prospects, Players, or Patience? The Twins Must Choose.

[Fatbat]

10 hours ago, Dman said:

I think about the question posed in the article a lot and I go back and forth on it a lot. The tough part for me about the deadline is that you have to pay a premium for a two month rental and an even greater premium for guys with an extra year.  Also how much value does just that one player bring with them? If the Twins recent past is any indication they would have been better off not doing deadline deals. Still the Braves and Rangers likely don't win the World Series without their savvy deadline acquisitions.  It's a risky gamble for every contending team every year and only one team comes out on top so the odds are fairly low that your moves make your team better than the rest.

I think appetite for risk comes down to three things.  short term team outlook, long term team outlook and available payroll.

In the short term outlook who cares about prospects they are just assets that allow you to fill holes on the MLB roster to make it stronger.  If you deplete your farm and have the money to spend up to or over the cap even if you make some bad trades you can still buy players in the offseason to strengthen your club.  The short term outlook is putting all your chips into the middle every deadline until you have no chips left.

The long term view is building a team via prospects to create a core group and then fill holes from there.  The farm is the main source of talent as long term building is generally for teams with lower budgets as they can't afford much high priced talent.  There does come a point though where a long term building team has to push their chips into the middle as the core of its good players is going to get too expensive to retain.

I think the Twins are in the long term outlook category.  They need to protect their prospects if they are going to sustain being a competitive team and not tear down and rebuild.  Does that mean they can't trade away any of their prospects of course not, but trading long term assets for short term ones does bite harder for smaller market teams.  

Is this a year to go all in?  I don't think so, but it clearly can be argued that a difference making starter could make a large difference in the post season for the Twins.  If it were me I would be looking for a more elite lefty reliever and call it a deadline.  We'll see what the Twins do.

We have a possibility of a very big wave of prospects in ‘25/26 so we really don’t need to go all in on a risky move in ‘24.  Top 5 offense and enough pitching to get by.  Unless we can get an elite pitcher, we are only switching names/ not upgrading any production. 

[RpR]

8 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

We have a possibility of a very big wave of prospects in ‘25/26 so we really don’t need to go all in on a risky move in ‘24.  Top 5 offense and enough pitching to get by.  Unless we can get an elite pitcher, we are only switching names/ not upgrading any production. 

Paying fans want success this year, not, next year, next year, next year....

[dxpavelka]

11 hours ago, BH67 said:

If the Twins want to add a genuine ace for the 2024 stretch run, they now have the depth in the farm system to make this happen and still keep elite prospects for the future. But only someone with considerably more upside this autumn than Tyler Mahle would justify such a move.

Even Tyler Mahle had more upside than Tyler Mahle.  At the time we made the deal.

[dxpavelka]

11 hours ago, bean5302 said:

It comes down to a couple things IMHO.
1. The AL Central does not look like it's going to be AAAA level anymore.
2. Playoff appearances are far from guaranteed even in a weak division (2021-2022 for example).
3. Playoffs are different from the regular season because you only face the best starters.

Fangraphs talked about the value of wins in an article. Wins aren't worth the same to all teams. A 60 win team getting to 61 wins is not the same as a 89 win team getting to 90 wins in terms of value. It's not what an ace does for you over the course of the regular season. It's what they do for you in the playoffs.

1987 - The Twins weren't a great team, but they did have 2 very strong starters. Frank Viola and Bert Blyleven.
1991 - The Twins were a good team and they had Kevin Tapani and Scott Erickson leading the rotation.

Having 2 great starters, and even better if you have a 3rd very good pitcher, makes it so much more likely to win a playoff series when a single run has such a huge impact on the outcome of winning percentage when it's critical.

It's also worth noting. What happens if Ryan or Lopez goes down? Does the rotation still have the oomph it needs to be competitive in the playoffs?

I seem to remember another guy near the top of that 1991 rotation.  His name escapes me but if memory serves he was solid in the post-season as well. 

[Fatbat]

48 minutes ago, RpR said:

Paying fans want success this year, not, next year, next year, next year....

Yes. And as a paying fan, I understand that we can make a dynasty type run since our farm system is stacked. This isnt 2000-2018 anymore. 

[RpR]

53 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

Yes. And as a paying fan, I understand that we can make a dynasty type run since our farm system is stacked. This isnt 2000-2018 anymore. 

That is a crap-shoot, ala, Sano, Rooker, etc.

[Fatbat]

5 hours ago, RpR said:

That is a crap-shoot, ala, Sano, Rooker, etc.

Way better odds than success with mid season/deadline trades. There is a time for different strategies and this season isn’t the time to sell prospects to just add a warm body with MLB experience. Buy the best and if its not available, figure out a different path. 
Sports Dynasties are built all the time thru the draft. There is definitely luck involved in those decisions. 

[Joe Schmitt]

"Viola was as good as Johan Santana in his prime back then, and he put up 8.1 WAR in 1987."

I loved Frankie V, I really did, but he wasn't Santana in his prime.  Viola never won the triple crown for heaven's sake. 

[JD-TWINS]

19 hours ago, Karbo said:

Atrade for Snell would be great, but I don't know if this FO is open to taking a chance like that. Especially after the Mahle trade.

The prospect exchange probably wouldn’t be more than for a lesser arm due to assumed lower competition……..I may be wrong but Snell is viewed a huge injury risk & at $31M, the balance of the season is costly for anyone. $31M is his option next year so he could walk for a longer deal elsewhere……essentially a high risk physically, expensive, & a rental.

To me, he’s interesting but doesn’t seem to be worth the risk, if I’m running the team. He looks great from my couch though!

Giants are 10 games over .500 at home & 3.5 games out of the Wildcard with 54 games to go……if he pitches & stays healthy, they have a shot at the Playoffs. They’ve been waiting for him and Ray all year and now they seem ready & able. Just don’t think Giants pursued him & signed him to get a dozen starts and then trade him for couple decent prospects.

[JD-TWINS]

9 hours ago, Fatbat said:

We have a possibility of a very big wave of prospects in ‘25/26 so we really don’t need to go all in on a risky move in ‘24.  Top 5 offense and enough pitching to get by.  Unless we can get an elite pitcher, we are only switching names/ not upgrading any production. 

To me, Team can piece 11 starts together with Festa - Varland - Matthews (?) - Paddack to get through the regular season. ……..somebody mentioned, what if Ryan or Lopez goes down? ….every team has that issue and there’s no insulating your roster with infinite experienced depth……just gotta deal with it & move forward.

In agreement with you guys on the best move being (1) Tanner Scott or (2) being Fairbanks or guys like these two. Again, IMO, Scott makes the Pen elite!

Sands or Staumont are the #7 & #8 guys…….pretty solid with this move…….Alcala - Stewart - Jax - Duran - Staumont - Sands - Topa (?) - Varland - Paddack - SCOTT.

Sure seems this becomes a Team with as good of a chance as any with Correa back & this pitching addition. Gotta try to displace the Thielbar/Okert tandem.

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

19 hours ago, Heistyman said:

There's an ACE pitching in Mexico that could be signed on a prove it deal.  Trevor Bauer is getting overly punished and his interviews recently he sounds like a changed man.

Wrong, wrong and laughably wrong!

[Otaknam]

21 hours ago, Whitey333 said:

Twins won't do much of any significance at the trade deadline IMO.  They should find a major league manager.  Today's starting lineup against the Tigers is a joke.  Looks like another one of Baldellis throwaway games with nk Lewis and no Buxton in the starting lineup.  I believe if we had a true manager that cared about winning games more than always following the iron clad "process over results" we would be in first place in the Central 

I agree on the head scratching lineup on Sunday, keeping both Buxton and Lewis out. But to claim Baldelli doesn’t care about winning is silly. Fortunately some other players came through. As for any trades, they may try to add to the bullpen. But I doubt any trades for a solid starter will be made. Sadly the Pohlads reward the taxpayers for giving them a great new ballpark by going Calvin Griffith on them. 

[saviking]

Patience 

[LambchoP]

I think we should grab Kikuchi. Maybe we get him for Kepler and Dobnak? He can start the rest of the year, and if needed pitch out of the bullpen in the playoffs where we desperately need a good lefty. Puk would have been perfect. Scott would be nice, but I think they'll be asking way too much for him. I'd be happy with Kikuchi and another LHRP.

[DJL44]

5 minutes ago, LambchoP said:

I think we should grab Kikuchi. Maybe we get him for Kepler and Dobnak?

The Blue Jays have no interest in Kepler's expiring contract (they're dumping those) and nobody wants Dobnak.

[Mike Sixel]

No, you don't have to choose....you can do all three of those things at the same time.

Also, standing pat also has risk....inaction has as much risk as action. This idea that doing nothing has no risk really has to die in all parts of life.

[FargoFanMan]

On 7/28/2024 at 11:39 AM, bean5302 said:

Fairly different scenario. Mahle was a guy producing back end arm numbers who the F.O. thought would be a mid rotation guy away from Great American Ballpark. He came with multiple years of team control and a cheap salary.

Falvey is on the final year of his contract, and he was put on notice last year that expectations were raised. If the Twins miss the playoffs, it seems unlikely Falvey keeps his job. If the Twins fail to advance in the playoffs, it's pretty questionable Falvey keeps his job. There's a lot of reason to be aggressive here.

I don’t believe falveys job is in jeopardy at all. To fans yes. To the pohlads I doubt it. You’re talking about the same family that kept terry ryan around way too long and probably would have kept his job if not for fan and talking head fury. Whether he signs an extension or not is the question. Not whether he gets one or not.

[mrcharlie]

On 7/28/2024 at 9:38 AM, Dman said:

I think about the question posed in the article a lot and I go back and forth on it a lot. The tough part for me about the deadline is that you have to pay a premium for a two month rental and an even greater premium for guys with an extra year.  Also how much value does just that one player bring with them? If the Twins recent past is any indication they would have been better off not doing deadline deals. Still the Braves and Rangers likely don't win the World Series without their savvy deadline acquisitions.  It's a risky gamble for every contending team every year and only one team comes out on top so the odds are fairly low that your moves make your team better than the rest.

I think appetite for risk comes down to three things.  short term team outlook, long term team outlook and available payroll.

In the short term outlook who cares about prospects they are just assets that allow you to fill holes on the MLB roster to make it stronger.  If you deplete your farm and have the money to spend up to or over the cap even if you make some bad trades you can still buy players in the offseason to strengthen your club.  The short term outlook is putting all your chips into the middle every deadline until you have no chips left.

The long term view is building a team via prospects to create a core group and then fill holes from there.  The farm is the main source of talent as long term building is generally for teams with lower budgets as they can't afford much high priced talent.  There does come a point though where a long term building team has to push their chips into the middle as the core of its good players is going to get too expensive to retain.

I think the Twins are in the long term outlook category.  They need to protect their prospects if they are going to sustain being a competitive team and not tear down and rebuild.  Does that mean they can't trade away any of their prospects of course not, but trading long term assets for short term ones does bite harder for smaller market teams.  

Is this a year to go all in?  I don't think so, but it clearly can be argued that a difference making starter could make a large difference in the post season for the Twins.  If it were me I would be looking for a more elite lefty reliever and call it a deadline.  We'll see what the Twins do.

excellent analysis!

I would add the old time idea.  "Sell high, buy low".   Right now we have some players that are doing well that are replaceable.  Alcala or Jax on the pitching side and Wallner, Larnach and Margot on the hitting side.  Move one or two for leftie pitching help.   I would target Tyler Anderson of the Angels.  

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, mrcharlie said:

excellent analysis!

I would add the old time idea.  "Sell high, buy low".   Right now we have some players that are doing well that are replaceable.  Alcala or Jax on the pitching side and Wallner, Larnach and Margot on the hitting side.  Move one or two for leftie pitching help.   I would target Tyler Anderson of the Angels.  

No way they deal Alacala or Jax. Or Wallner. 

How do you fill those spots at all, let alone easier? 

I literally have no idea how this is a good idea. Wallner is their best hitting OF. Jax their best RP. Like, I really don't get this at all.

[mrcharlie]

One thing we are forgetting in this debate.

There are other teams that are facing the same decisions.  I believe our depth is an advantage on the pitching side and our versatility on the hitting side.   SWR and Ober are strong 3 and 4 starters...matching up well against strong lineups lately.   Cleveland, KC, Boston, the Rangers do not have the pitching depth of our starters.   To bring in a leftie relief pitcher is our best move and it can be done with little impact to our roster... Larnach, Wallner or Kirilloff and a low level minor prospect perhaps.

[Fatbat]

Does anyone know who has been inquiring about Duran and Kepler?

[Craig Arko]

26 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

Does anyone know who has been inquiring about Duran and Kepler?

Believe it was the Dodgers about Duran, don’t know about Kep.

[Craig Arko]

It would seem that the only way to really make a move with the oft-quoted payroll restrictions is to move Kepler either before or as part of a trade. I don’t see this happening.