What JP Sears offers as a Twins Trade Target

[Theodore Tollefson]

Starting pitchers will not be easy to come by this trade deadline, whether they are rentals or long-term purchases. But the Oakland A's may have one starter who can come without a heavy price and remain a rotation option well after 2024 for the Twins.

Image courtesy of © Paul Rutherford-USA TODAY Sports

The Oakland A’s are going through another rough season. They own an ugly 37-61 record at the All-Star break, dead last in the American League West and second-to-last in the American League. Their offense has been one of the more underrated in all of baseball, fourth in MLB with 122 home runs on the year, but the pitching staff has been unable to make that matter. They have a 4.46 ERA, good for 25th out of 30; a 1.36 WHIP, tied for 27th; and the third-lowest strikeout-to-walk ratio, at 2.23. 

Among all the ups and downs, though, two pitchers from their rotation and bullpen have at least been consistently competent: Mason Miller and JP Sears. Many fans across baseball have become familiar with Miller’s name, thanks to his ferocious fastball, electric slider, and (this week) All-Star showcase moment. For the Twins, though, it might not be Miller who makes sense as a trade target.

Sears was a stable force in the Athletics rotation until he faced off against the Twins twice in June. Before his start against the Twins on Jun. 16, he held a 4.02 ERA, .232/.298/.394 opponent slash line, and .254 BABIP, in 78 ⅓ innings. Then he made back-to-back starts against Minnesota, and the league's best lineup exploited his weakness, tallying 18 hits (including four home runs) and 12 runs in 5 ⅔ innings.

The two starts ballooned his ERA on the season up a full run, to 5.04. Fortunately, Sears has turned things around in his three starts since facing the Twins, posting a 2.16 ERA in 16 ⅔ innings. 

Things have been up and down, to say the least, for Sears this last month, but what does he have to offer the Twins as a rotational upgrade at the trade deadline? Firstly, it's a solid five-pitch arsenal, with a fastball, sweeper, changeup, sinker, and slider. 

His sweeper is the most effective pitch. He’s thrown it 504 times this year, and hitters have a .191 batting average and a .296 slugging percentage in plate appearances that end on it. His 20.8% whiff rate on the sweeper is the second-lowest in his arsenal, but he continues to get hitters out with the pitch--despite his being a lefty starter, and therefore rarely having the platoon advantage, and despite the sweeper being a pretty platoon-vulnerable pitch.

His changeup is the opposite. Throwing it 306 times, hitters have hit .316 off the pitch. He has a slightly higher whiff percentage with his change, at 21.9%, but it’s still proving to be a weakness as he throws it in the outside corner, right in right-handed hitters' wheelhouse. 

Where can Sears use the most help to develop from a decent to a solid starting pitcher? Painting the corners. He's not missing bats at the edges of the zones, which has contributed to a reluctance to live there. Although hitting the outside corner has proven to be ineffective against righties, he can use the inside corner to his advantage if he can find the command to land his pitches there.

The Twins have taken advantage of pitching reclamation projects in recent seasons, and have seen success from Pablo López (last season) and Kenta Maeda (in 2020). Sears presents the Twins with another starter whom they could work with. It's possible they can shore up his weaknesses, to his and their own advantage. 

Arguably, Sears's best start of the season came in the Twins' personal Mt. Doom, Yankee Stadium, against the team that traded him to Oakland. He threw six full innings, allowing only three hits, a walk, and no extra-base hits, and struck out seven of the would-be Bombers. While the start did come early in the season (Apr. 22), it’s still an achievement that should entice the Twins to pursue him.

Sears wouldn't grab headlines the way some of the other available starters could, but he’s right in the pocket of affordability and established ability that could slot him between Bailey Ober and Chris Paddack. The hard selling point for Oakland will be Sears's years of control. He’s still pre-arbitration for 2025, and will not qualify for free agency until after the 2028 season. Though he's not the kind of star who typically commands a high price in trade, all that team control would raise the stakes. 

Athletics owner John Fisher may be cheap, but the front office tasked with working around his fraudulent penuriousness isn't in the business of giving away good players. Regardless, Sears could be the right fit for the Twins to have their first full-time lefty in the rotation since JA Happ in 2021, and to provide a starter who will be more than just a rental. He could help them in the postseason this year, be it in the rotation or the bullpen, and then return in a key rotation role next year.

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[Cory Engelhardt]

I like the idea of him in some ways. I guess I'd prefer to add someone who can slot into the top 3 right now, more than someone who would slot in at 4. But I'd absolutely be intrigued with adding someone with this many years of control. 

[mickster]

I would like to see a LH in the rotation and then can move to the BP for the post-season.   Price for control will be a bit though and will have to entice Oakland.   Would they take AK?   Thinking that may not be enough straight up.   Wallner?  Julien seems a bit high and would be selling low.

[tony&rodney]

Why would the Athletics trade a controllable starting pitcher for less than a haul that the Twins would never agree with as a workable deal?

[old nurse]

9 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Why would the Athletics trade a controllable starting pitcher for less than a haul that the Twins would never agree with as a workable deal?

The history of Oakland trades seems to be a haul of high risk, high reward prospects from the low minors.  All that the trades of Bassit, Olson, Chapman and Gray netted them was the catcher Langliers. Montas netted them Sears, a back of the rotation pitcher.  Why would they trade Sears? Their opinion of what they get in return is better than what they will get out of Sears 

[Guest]

"[F]raudulent penuriousness?"  Certainly applies to the Oakland city government that has made visiting sports stadiums a tedious, dangerous, unpleasant experience for taxpayers.

[Guest]

52 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I like the idea of him in some ways. I guess I'd prefer to add someone who can slot into the top 3 right now, more than someone who would slot in at 4. But I'd absolutely be intrigued with adding someone with this many years of control. 

Unless he's a bum.

[Cory Engelhardt]

10 minutes ago, Minderbinder said:

Unless he's a bum.

That'd be up to coaching staff to make sure whoever they get doesn't produce like he is a bum right?

[LambchoP]

I don't know, do we need another 4-5 type starter. Seems a bit redundant, he's got similar numbers to Paddack. I do love the fact he's a lefty, and he's controllable forever. But, because of his years of control we're going to have to give up a decent piece and I just don't think we should be trading away assets except to UPGRADE the rotation.

[IndianaTwin]

They have Lopez, Ryan, Ober, SWR and Paddack all under contract for 2025, followed by Varland, Festa, Zebby and other people I'm not thinking of. They also have guys increasing in cost (Lopez, Correa, arbitration folks).

Though it's been their past MO, I don't see them prioritizing years of control in any acquisitions this year. It makes more sense to pay much less and get a pure half-season rental (Kikuchi, etc.).

[bean5302]

Not interested in Sears at all. We don't need another Tommy Milone.

[Trov]

I think his cost would be too high.  He has many years of control and Oakland has no reason to trade him now.  So if they do it will be if the prospects are right.  I would not say no if we did not have to give up much for him, but only if the FO feels they can get more from him than what he has showed against us.  We have a lot of back end rotation depth right now. 

[Doctor Gast]

20 hours ago, LambchoP said:

I don't know, do we need another 4-5 type starter. Seems a bit redundant, he's got similar numbers to Paddack. I do love the fact he's a lefty, and he's controllable forever. But, because of his years of control we're going to have to give up a decent piece and I just don't think we should be trading away assets except to UPGRADE the rotation.

There you go. We don't need another 4-5 starter & give up a bunch of prospect capital to pay for a bunch of years we don't need(?). We need to unload a bunch of expiring veteran contracts, which we can easily replace with younger players. There's a big demand for 1Bmen, many teams are holding unto their 1Bmen. ex. Vladdy (TOR), Alonzo (NYM) & Goldsmidt (STL), We can come out on top by trading Santana while increasing our WAR with a combination of Miranda, Julien & Kiriloff.

IMO, the Twins should be looking at a top-tier SP rental, we can afford their salary if we dump some expiring contracts & negotiate to have the trade partner to pay part. 1st choice Eovaldi (TX) he's been there before, a postseason bulldog. 2nd choice Montas (CIN), he has followed the same path as our Gray- OAK ace- NYY stumble- CIN recover- MN CY runner-up. Montas has a lot of upside that MN can unlock that I believe it is a good chance, if he's not all that we hoped for, he should still be a very good SP as a cheap insurance rental.

[DocBauer]

Simeon Woods Richardson wants to have a conversation about Sears replacing him as the #4 starter.

Sears, 28, has more experience than the almost 24 yo Richardson, and is LH, which gives the Twins rotation a different look, and might offer LH help in the post season as well.

But.....

Sears quad line and BABIP:

.250/ .320/ .437/ .757/ .274

SWR quad line and BABIP:

.228/ .287/ .355/ .642/ .267

Now, to be fair, again, Sears has more experience, and has thrown about 18 more innings this season. Richardson might keep getting better, or could hit a wall at some point here in his first, full, rookie season. But right now he's besting Sears in every category. I'd say if anyone is "deserving" of being moved out of the rotation it's the hot and cold Paddack. 

Nothin against Sears. Depth is good. An option to rest someone later in the season is good...assuming you want someone other than who's in the Twins system right now. But I think you go BIG or you don't go all for a rotation trade. And I just don't know that there's a whole lot to choose from for that BIG addition at this point in time. 

 

[Linus]

I think there is value in adding a legit starter even if he’s not playoff caliber. Paddack is worrisome to me and we are also one starter injury away from running Festa and Varland out there. I know a lot of people are big on those two I want nothing to do with them while we are chasing Cleveland. 

[Blyleven2011]

A lefty is nice in the rotation to break up the all righties we have , gives a different look to the opposing teams ...

I don't think sears is the answer though,  Oakland is as savvy as Tampa  when it comes to trading away players , they most likely would come out the winner of the trade ...

Trade deadline isn't to far away , twins did nothing last year , Cleveland folded  at deadline but tried later with the angel's  waivers,  Cleveland should be buyers at the deadline ...

Will be interesting with the payroll restraints  ...

The FO liked their players last year to win the division and did nothing  , but pitching is a weakness and we need a solid number 2 starter  ...

I will wait and see  , cause I have no crystal ball ...

[ashbury]

12 hours ago, Minderbinder said:

"[F]raudulent penuriousness?"  Certainly applies to the Oakland city government that has made visiting sports stadiums a tedious, dangerous, unpleasant experience for taxpayers.

I'm not an Oakland taxpayer but I get to their games yearly when I can, and my experience at the stadium has always been the opposite of the adjectives you used.

[USAFChief]

6 hours ago, ashbury said:

I'm not an Oakland taxpayer but I get to their games yearly when I can, and my experience at the stadium has always been the opposite of the adjectives you used.

Perhaps you're the cause of the adjectives.

 

Bah-dum-tschhhhh.

 

 

 

[ashbury]

9 hours ago, USAFChief said:

Perhaps you're the cause of the adjectives.

I did get prepositioned there one time.

[USAFChief]

39 minutes ago, ashbury said:

I did get prepositioned there one time.

Hopefully you declined, or it may have ended in a sentence.

[stringer bell]

Quite a bit of value in a #3-5 starter. He wasn't very impressive against the Twins, but outside of those two starts he has been serviceable. He's not young, but he has four years of team control after this season. If he could be acquired without losing a top ten prospect, I think it is worth it.

[Fatbat]

I like the idea but dislike it at the same time.  With Paddack wearing down, he needs rest and then be sent to the bullpen in Aug/Sept. Sears could slot into his spot or in the 5 spot so Pablo could follow a lefty starting the day before him.  Id rather have Max Scherzer tho.