What JP Sears offers as a Twins Trade Target

The Oakland A’s are going through another rough season. They own an ugly 37-61 record at the All-Star break, dead last in the American League West and second-to-last in the American League. Their offense has been one of the more underrated in all of baseball, fourth in MLB with 122 home runs on the year, but the pitching staff has been unable to make that matter. They have a 4.46 ERA, good for 25th out of 30; a 1.36 WHIP, tied for 27th; and the third-lowest strikeout-to-walk ratio, at 2.23. 

Among all the ups and downs, though, two pitchers from their rotation and bullpen have at least been consistently competent: Mason Miller and JP Sears. Many fans across baseball have become familiar with Miller’s name, thanks to his ferocious fastball, electric slider, and (this week) All-Star showcase moment. For the Twins, though, it might not be Miller who makes sense as a trade target.

Sears was a stable force in the Athletics rotation until he faced off against the Twins twice in June. Before his start against the Twins on Jun. 16, he held a 4.02 ERA, .232/.298/.394 opponent slash line, and .254 BABIP, in 78 ⅓ innings. Then he made back-to-back starts against Minnesota, and the league's best lineup exploited his weakness, tallying 18 hits (including four home runs) and 12 runs in 5 ⅔ innings.

The two starts ballooned his ERA on the season up a full run, to 5.04. Fortunately, Sears has turned things around in his three starts since facing the Twins, posting a 2.16 ERA in 16 ⅔ innings. 

Things have been up and down, to say the least, for Sears this last month, but what does he have to offer the Twins as a rotational upgrade at the trade deadline? Firstly, it's a solid five-pitch arsenal, with a fastball, sweeper, changeup, sinker, and slider. 

His sweeper is the most effective pitch. He’s thrown it 504 times this year, and hitters have a .191 batting average and a .296 slugging percentage in plate appearances that end on it. His 20.8% whiff rate on the sweeper is the second-lowest in his arsenal, but he continues to get hitters out with the pitch--despite his being a lefty starter, and therefore rarely having the platoon advantage, and despite the sweeper being a pretty platoon-vulnerable pitch.

His changeup is the opposite. Throwing it 306 times, hitters have hit .316 off the pitch. He has a slightly higher whiff percentage with his change, at 21.9%, but it’s still proving to be a weakness as he throws it in the outside corner, right in right-handed hitters' wheelhouse. 

Where can Sears use the most help to develop from a decent to a solid starting pitcher? Painting the corners. He's not missing bats at the edges of the zones, which has contributed to a reluctance to live there. Although hitting the outside corner has proven to be ineffective against righties, he can use the inside corner to his advantage if he can find the command to land his pitches there.

The Twins have taken advantage of pitching reclamation projects in recent seasons, and have seen success from Pablo López (last season) and Kenta Maeda (in 2020). Sears presents the Twins with another starter whom they could work with. It's possible they can shore up his weaknesses, to his and their own advantage. 

Arguably, Sears's best start of the season came in the Twins' personal Mt. Doom, Yankee Stadium, against the team that traded him to Oakland. He threw six full innings, allowing only three hits, a walk, and no extra-base hits, and struck out seven of the would-be Bombers. While the start did come early in the season (Apr. 22), it’s still an achievement that should entice the Twins to pursue him.

Sears wouldn't grab headlines the way some of the other available starters could, but he’s right in the pocket of affordability and established ability that could slot him between Bailey Ober and Chris Paddack. The hard selling point for Oakland will be Sears's years of control. He’s still pre-arbitration for 2025, and will not qualify for free agency until after the 2028 season. Though he's not the kind of star who typically commands a high price in trade, all that team control would raise the stakes. 

Athletics owner John Fisher may be cheap, but the front office tasked with working around his fraudulent penuriousness isn't in the business of giving away good players. Regardless, Sears could be the right fit for the Twins to have their first full-time lefty in the rotation since JA Happ in 2021, and to provide a starter who will be more than just a rental. He could help them in the postseason this year, be it in the rotation or the bullpen, and then return in a key rotation role next year.