Analyzing the Strengths and Present Weaknesses of the Twins' Day 1 Draft Picks

[Jamie Cameron]

What can we make of the Twins' four Day One selections in Sunday night's draft? What are their strengths and opportunities, as they transition into professional baseball? Let’s dig in.

Image courtesy of © Dylan Widger-USA TODAY Sports

Day One of the 2024 MLB Draft is in the books. Prior to the 2023 draft, Twins Vice President of Amateur Scouting Sean Johnson conducted an annual interview with Darren Wolfson at Target Field. In his comments, he noted, "We want to lean into the strength of the draft." That played out in 2023 with a strong prep class, and it’s true again in 2024, with a strong collection of college bats in the top 75 or so players.

What can we make of the Twins' four Day One selections? What are their strengths and opportunities for improvement, as they begin their journey in pro baseball? Let’s dig in.  For each pick, you'll find their position, age, school, height, weight, handedness, and position on our consensus board listed under their name.

Kaelen Culpepper, 21st Overall Pick
SS, 21 Kansas State, 6’0, 190, R/R (35)
Culpepper (insert DJ Khaled ‘another one’ gif) had a productive 2024 season at Kansas State, sliding over from third base to shortstop and handling the transition well. He buoyed what is a thin crop of college shortstops, typically a coveted demographic.

Culpepper had a productive 2024 season, slashing .328/.419/.574 with 11 home runs, 35 walks, and 41 strikeouts in 61 games for Kansas State. Culpepper has a simple, direct right-handed swing and manipulates the barrel of the bat well. He hits the ball hard often, maintaining a good average exit velocity without reaching upper-echelon watermarks that mark some of the other first-round college bats.

Culpepper pulls his fly balls less than an average hitter (41st percentile), and much of his hard contact is to the opposite field. I think the Twins will feel that tapping into more pulled fly fly-ball batted ball events can unlock more power for Culpepper. While the power may never be plus, it should be average, giving him a 50 grade or better on every tool.

Culpepper’s biggest opportunity is to rein in an overly aggressive approach at the plate. He chased 27% of the time in 2024, and has a particular tendency to go after breaking pitches. This habit seems to be more rooted in an aggressive approach than a challenge picking up spin.

Defensively, the arm, actions, and athleticism will play at shortstop. I think Culpepper has a good chance to stick there. It will all play somewhere else on the dirt as an above-average defender, if he doesn’t. Culpepper profiles as a relatively low-variance college bat who should accrue consistently solid value--if he can tamp down the overly aggressive approach at the plate. 

Kyle DeBarge, 33rd Overall Pick
SS, 21, Louisiana-Lafayette, 5’9, 175, R/R (50)
DeBarge is an undersized college shortstop who had a major power breakout in 2024, hitting .356/.418/.699 with 21 home runs (43 XBH), 24 walks and 30 strikeouts in 60 games. DeBarge posts good bat speed and his swing, in combination with his athleticism, give him some of the best bat to ball skills in the entire draft class, with an in zone contact rate north of 90%.

I don’t think DeBarge’s power breakout is going to translate to professional baseball. He has already maximized his ability to pull the ball, with a pulled fly ball rate that outstripped the average in college baseball in 2024. He profiles as a line drive, doubles hitter as a pro, and a challenging out for pitchers with plus speed to boot.

Defensively, while DeBarge doesn’t have the best arm, he makes up for it with excellent twitch and athleticism that allowed him to handle shortstop well in college. It’s good actions and range at the position. He might slide to second base ultimately.

Big picture, the Twins first two picks give some indicators about on field preferences for hitters. They value swings they think  can be effective, and strong bat-to-ball skills. Other aspects of offensive profiles (like a high chase rate) they believe they can reign in and help prospects improve. These tendencies won’t ever apply to every prospect drafted (see Amick below) but the Twins first two picks indicate that solving for poor contact ability is a challenging developmental hurdle.

Billy Amick, 60th Overall Pick
3B, 21, Tennessee, 6’0, 210, R/R (40)
Unlike the Twins first two picks, Amick doesn’t fit the trend of valuing strong contact skills. It’s a power over hit profile here. Amick was ranked 40th on the consensus board and had been mocked to the Twins in the first round. I didn’t love it at 21, but it’s great value at 60.

Amick played third base for the national champion Tennessee Volunteers, helping anchor the most prolific offense in the country. He hit .306/.387/.639 (1.026) with 23 home runs (38 XBH), 29 walks and 53 strikeouts in 65 games.

Power is the calling card here. Amick has easy raw power and was 97th percentile in 90th percentile exit velocity in college baseball this year (just south of 110 mph). Amick is a machine in terms of pulling fly balls. He is a perfect fit for how the Twins want hitters to deploy power.

There’s certainly warts with Amick’s profile, though, specifically his hit tool. Amick’s bat to ball skills are the first potential challenge here. His overall contact rate in 2024 was 70% (81% in zone). Both of those figures are on the low end for college baseball. Amick also chases a ton (over 30% in 2024). That’s potentially a dangerous combination and he’ll have to improve one of those two aspects of his offensive profile to be a viable MLB bat.

Amick handled third base decently in 2024. For me, he’s a strong value play at 60. He’ll certainly be fun to watch when he debuts.

Dasan Hill, 69th Overall Pick
LHP, 18, Grapevine HS, TX, 6’5, 175, L/L (58)
Dasan Hill profiles as the Twins most intriguing day one pick. It’s a fool's errand to speculate on bonus demands, but I think it’s likely the Twins saved some money with their first two picks, so a prep arm felt like it was coming.

Hill is the ultimate projection arm you can dream on. He’s listed at 6’5, 175 pounds, and the fastball is already up to 97 mph. Even if he’s not maintaining that type of velocity through the end of starts, it’s easy to imagine where the fastball might get to with added weight, strength, and given the Twins ability to add a few ticks.

Hill throws two distinct breaking pitches (slider and a curveball) with both generally being deemed above average. There’s also a changeup with good fade in his arsenal. Fangraphs scouting report on Hill (their number 24 prospect) describes him as having ‘a feel for location uncommonly good for a pitcher his size and age’. That feels extremely relevant. If we can highlight a Twins tendency when drafting pitchers, it’s drafting strike throwers whose stuff they can augment. Zebby Matthews and Andrew Morris are recently drafted examples. Mapping that principle onto a 6’5 lefty who has a four-pitch mix with a fastball that’s been up to 97 mph is compelling, to say the least.

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What did you make of the Twins day one picks? Who are you excited to see debut in pro ball? Join in the discussion with a comment below.

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[MMMordabito]

I apologize if this question was asked in another thread, but are there any potential signability issues with Hill?

Looks like he'll fit right in with Lewis on the eye black side of things. 🙂

[Mike Sixel]

I have no issues with any of the picks, even if I'd have gone different routes. 

The second pick sure sounds like Austin Martin....

[FlyingFinn]

17 minutes ago, MMMordabito said:

are there any potential signability issues with Hill?

In 2024, nearly 100% of the drafted players in the first 5 rounds (or more) already have an agreement with the team to sign at a certain $ amount (or range) or they don't draft them. Much better than the old days where teams would lose a high pick because they wouldn't sign.

[Jamie Cameron]

20 minutes ago, MMMordabito said:

I apologize if this question was asked in another thread, but are there any potential signability issues with Hill?

Looks like he'll fit right in with Lewis on the eye black side of things. 🙂

I won't play guessing games on bonus demands, but Hill was committed to Dallas Baptist, he'll sign.

[Brock Beauchamp]

6 minutes ago, Jamie Cameron said:

Dallas Baptist

Sounds like a really cool video game protagonist.

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

3 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Sounds like a really cool video game protagonist.

Gotta be a post-apocalyptic zombie game with that name. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

2 minutes ago, CCHOF5yearstoolate said:

Gotta be a post-apocalyptic zombie game with that name. 

Absolutely, a zombie-killing Max Payne type of badass.

[Brandon]

I wonder if any of these guys end up in the OF.  That 2nd pick is like an Eckstein / Castro pick in that he can stay MI but he also seems like the super utility type.  I t like the Amick pick where we got him.  It seems like we did pretty good for drafting 21rst.  I don’t know the players or have anything to compare to. But it does seem like there is a high floor with our picks.  High floor meaning making it to AAA or atleast getting some time in the bigs.  

[2wins87]

My early thoughts on how they fit into the farm now:

Culpepper: 11th - Just behind Gonzalez and and Soto and just ahead of Winokur in my ranking.  I'm coming around on him a bit more after the fact, and could see arguing for a couple slots higher, but not much, largely due to the improved strength in the top 10 this year.  Seems like a great makeup guy which the Twins like.

DeBarge: 17th - Behind Cory Lewis and Yasser Mercedes, ahead of Yunior Severino for me.  DeBarge does feel a little more utility infielder than Culpepper, and comparing him to Schobel doesn't seem totally unfair.  Not sure how much stock to put into the power surge with power up across college baseball this year, but he does seem strong (moreso than Schobel) if possibly maxed out.  The contact skills also seem to be a cut above, so I can see the upside. 

Amick: 22nd - Behind Dameury Pena and DeAndrade, ahead on Rayne Doncon.  Could rise or fall quite a bit if the hit tool either flops or proves to be better than expected.

Hill: 29th - Behind Eduardo Beltre and Prielipp, ahead of Canterino.  This could be way low, but I'm reluctant to put a second round HS arm too high into the top 30.  Probably won't get to know too much more about him on the field until next year

 

[Brandon]

Someone should do an article on last year’s draft for Minnesota 1 year later.  Who signed and how are they doing so far.  Who advanced the most.  Who was hurt the most,  and who is off to a good start in their careers.

[roger]

Like past years, I know nothing about these guys.  But I also haven't read anything here and elsewhere that gets me excited.

Knowing nothing is similar to previous years.  But I sure could get excited about everything I read about Lee two years ago.  Same last year with Jenkins.  And when I read about what Keaschall had done at ASU and previously, took a liking to that guy.  Throw in the Soto pick and last year generated some excitement.

Nothing I see this year is cause for me to get excited.  Hopefully, one of these guys will be the second coming of Tony Gwynn to Jason Verlander.  But that ain't likely, is it?  Heck, maybe the excitement will come from a couple of pitchers taken later today.  Kind of like what was it, three or four years ago with those guys from Nebraska and Michigan?  Hopefully, this time they will hang on to them.

[Fatbat]

2 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

I have no issues with any of the picks, even if I'd have gone different routes. 

The second pick sure sounds like Austin Martin....

Somewhere between Austin Martin and Jose Altuve. 

[Fatbat]

True to Billy Ball, we got Billy undervalued! Debarge looks like a total gamer that is gonna be one of the toughest outs for any pitcher. Kyle and Billy got attitudes! 
 

If Billy can cut the chase rate to 18%, his contract rate should go up. IF he sheds those warts early in his career, he will climb into the top 100 prospects list quickly. 

[wabene]

What percentage of these college hitters play in the independent wooden bat summer leagues, all of them?

How much does their performance with wooden bats weigh in on their evaluation?

[Fatbat]

1 hour ago, 2wins87 said:

My early thoughts on how they fit into the farm now:

Culpepper: 11th - 

Amick: 16th -

DeBarge: 17th -

Hill: 24th - 

 

There’s my edit to your list. Kyle & Billy can be flipped tho…

[Walser]

Quote

Defensively, while DeBarge doesn’t have the best arm

MLB.com gave his arm a 60 grade.

[Walser]

52 minutes ago, roger said:

Nothing I see this year is cause for me to get excited. 

Dasan Hill has the highest DIGS+ of any prep pitcher this year. I don't know what DIGS+ measures or if it's a reliable metric, but it's something.

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

8 minutes ago, Walser said:

Dasan Hill has the highest DIGS+ of any prep pitcher this year. I don't know what DIGS+ measures or if it's a reliable metric, but it's something.

I'd never heard of that before. Seems like xFIP but also includes hits. 

 

Here's Dasan at the top

 

[2wins87]

35 minutes ago, Walser said:

Dasan Hill has the highest DIGS+ of any prep pitcher this year. I don't know what DIGS+ measures or if it's a reliable metric, but it's something.

 

23 minutes ago, CCHOF5yearstoolate said:

I'd never heard of that before. Seems like xFIP but also includes hits. 

 

Here's Dasan at the top

 

Seems potentially useful for college players, but wouldn't seem useful for high schoolers given the level of competition, unless it's only based on showcase games?

[DocBauer]

Might seem like a strange way to evaluate these guys, but...

CULPEPPER: He's a better version of Keaschall in that he's a true SS and a stronger arm. Doesn't mean he'll be as good as Keaschall, but I think the basic comparison is fair.

DEBARGE: A faster version of Schobel.

AMICK: I keep getting this feeling he's CES but better defensively.

HILL: He doesn't bring a comp to mind. And who knows if he'll turn out or not. But he's the most fun and probably the most exciting of th3 day 1 picks. Three years and 20lbs from now he's a Twins top 10 prospect, if you believe in the Twins ability to develop pitching. And I do.

My only real issue is Culpepper's upside. Even picking at 21, I'd like the 1st round pick to have high potential, even if it comes with risk. I think there were higher upside options...Brecht just for example...available for the Twins. Culpepper might be awesome, but he also felt more "safe" than many other options available.

[jmlease1]

3 hours ago, roger said:

Like past years, I know nothing about these guys.  But I also haven't read anything here and elsewhere that gets me excited.

Knowing nothing is similar to previous years.  But I sure could get excited about everything I read about Lee two years ago.  Same last year with Jenkins.  And when I read about what Keaschall had done at ASU and previously, took a liking to that guy.  Throw in the Soto pick and last year generated some excitement.

Nothing I see this year is cause for me to get excited.  Hopefully, one of these guys will be the second coming of Tony Gwynn to Jason Verlander.  But that ain't likely, is it?  Heck, maybe the excitement will come from a couple of pitchers taken later today.  Kind of like what was it, three or four years ago with those guys from Nebraska and Michigan?  Hopefully, this time they will hang on to them.

Well, it's a lot easier to get excited when you're picking in the top 10. or top 5.

As a second round pick, Hill should put about as much charge into you as Soto, but YMMV.

Looks like a good Day 1 to me, but they're prospects so Goldman's advice on Hollywood applies here too: "Remember, no one knows anything."

[Fatbat]

@CCHOF5yearstoolate that Digs info was only for the HSchool pitchers? Where is the digs for college guys?

[twinstalker]

If Hill would have been an early pick ten plus years ago then I'm all on board with it.  Definitely not impressed with the first three.

[Doctor Wu]

17 hours ago, Brandon said:

Someone should do an article on last year’s draft for Minnesota 1 year later.  Who signed and how are they doing so far.  Who advanced the most.  Who was hurt the most,  and who is off to a good start in their careers.

That would be good, or even one that goes back two years. Always interesting to see how player have developed ... or not in some cases. 

[Eephus]

16 hours ago, Fatbat said:

Somewhere between Austin Martin and Jose Altuve. 

Where's Punto on that spectrum?

[Fatbat]

14 minutes ago, Eephus said:

Where's Punto on that spectrum?

Somewhere in the middle🤷🏻‍♂️

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

15 hours ago, Fatbat said:

@CCHOF5yearstoolate that Digs info was only for the HSchool pitchers? Where is the digs for college guys?

Couldn't find a similar tweet but I think you can scroll through here https://sites.google.com/view/pitcherdigs/digs?authuser=0

[Trov]

It sounds like both top picks may struggle to hit for power with the wood bats, which surprise me knowing the Twins loving the power bats.  

[Old Twins Hat]

21 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

I have no issues with any of the picks, even if I'd have gone different routes. 

The second pick sure sounds like Austin Martin....

Given his size and power, more like Alex Bregman to me.

One can hope.