Twins Trade Deadline: The Bailey Ober Threshold

[Cody Christie]

If the Twins want to add a starting pitcher, that player must pass the Bailey Ober threshold. What does that mean? I’m glad you asked.

Image courtesy of Brian Bradshaw Sevald-USA TODAY Sports

Last season, the Twins saw what it takes to win in October. Strong starting pitching, a powerful lineup, and a shutdown bullpen are all keys. As the front office plans for the trade deadline, multiple factors must be considered for the team to make choices for the present and future of the organization. One aspect to consider is adding a playoff-caliber starting pitcher, and that acquisition must meet the Bailey Ober threshold.

If the playoffs started today, the Twins would be one of the AL’s Wild Card teams, able to line up their top three starting pitchers. Currently, those three starters would be Pablo López, Joe Ryan, and Bailey Ober. There is a lot of baseball left to decide the exact order of those pitchers and questions about how their performance will hold up for the stretch run. So, the front office must acquire a pitcher better than Ober to clearly upgrade the team’s playoff rotation. 

For the Twins to be successful in the playoffs, Ryan must continue to pitch well in the second half, and López needs to rediscover the performance that made him a near-Cy Young last season. Ober is the player sitting in the team’s third rotation spot, and he’s delivered an up-and-down performance this season. In his first 13 starts, he posted a 5.13 ERA, as he allowed 11 home runs in 66 2/3 innings. His last five appearances have restored the Ober fans saw last season. In 33 1/3 innings, he has allowed eight earned runs on 23 hits, with a 41-to-6 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Ober’s true talent lies somewhere between his poor start to the season and his recent hot stretch, but that’s the threshold for acquiring a starting pitcher before the deadline. 

Minnesota also has other playoff pitching options behind Ober, but trusting those arms is challenging. Simeon Woods Richardson has been great during his rookie campaign, with a 3.48 ERA, a 3.87 FIP, and a 1.11 WHIP. However, his 20.1 K% exposes him to some degree of variance and makes him more vulnerable to the high-powered offenses you tend to find in October. Another option is Chris Paddack, but he has been streaky in his first full season since his second Tommy John surgery. He is likely on an innings limit, and might be headed for a late-season bullpen role, similar to the one he assumed during last season’s playoff run. 

Many selling teams have starting pitchers who clear the Ober Threshold. Some of the top potentially available names are: Tarik Skubal, Garrett Crochet, Kevin Gausman, Nathan Eovaldi, and Zach Eflin. Crochet and Skubal are under team control through 2026 and pitch within the division, so the Twins might not want to give up the requisite prospect package to a rival. Gausman has the same amount of control left, via his contract, but it comes at $23 million per season, and there is no guarantee the Twins have that type of payroll flexibility. Eovaldi has dealt with injuries in the past, but has plenty of playoff experience with the Rangers and Red Sox. Eflin finished in the top 6 for the AL Cy Young last season and is due to be paid $18 million next season, which might put him out of Tampa’s payroll plan, so maybe he makes the most sense in this group. There could be others to consider, too. 

Last season, the Twins stood pat at the trade deadline and relied on internal options to bolster the roster for the stretch run. Minnesota’s front office has been aggressive in the past, adding players like Tyler Mahle and Jorge López, but those trades didn’t work out in the team’s favor. With the team’s payroll limitations, it will be tough for a club to acquire a starter that meets the Ober Threshold.

---

Will the front office have room to add a playoff-caliber starter? Can the Twins win with their top three starters? Leave a comment and start the discussion.

View full article

[Patzky]

2 minutes ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

I believe that the Twins will add a starter at or above the Ober level.  It will cost them, but given the line up we have this year, adding a high-level starter might be just what we need to get to the ALCS.

Eovaldi, Flaherty, Kikuchi, Fedde in no particular order.

[ashbury]

I advocate for a Paddack threshold.  For two reasons. 1) I want a long playoff run, and you need a fourth starter for that.  2) Things happen, and Ober himself might be a Game 2 starter or not be available himself.

Best available guy - better than Ober would be cool of course.   I just don't advise the FO to give up if they can't achieve that higher aim in a cost-effective way.

[bean5302]

4 minutes ago, ashbury said:

I advocate for a Paddack threshold.  For two reasons. 1) I want a long playoff run, and you need a fourth starter for that.  2) Things happen, and Ober himself might be a Game 2 starter or not be available himself.

Best available guy - better than Ober would be cool of course.   I just don't advise the FO to give up if they can't achieve that higher aim in a cost-effective way.

I suppose it depends on whether or not you consider Paddack better than Ober. Personally, I think he's well lower than Ober, but it's clear Ober isn't a guy who would really be considered a preferable option as a playoff starter.

1. Lopez
2. Ryan
3. Woods Richardson
4. Ober
5. DNP

That's probably the order the front office is looking at right now.
The Yankees, Royals and Mariners have potential playoff caliber starters at #4, but the rest of the AL likely playoff teams are 3 quality playoff arms deep before you start getting into the guys you have less confidence in being great.



 

[Brandon]

23 minutes ago, Patzky said:

Eovaldi, Flaherty, Kikuchi, Fedde in no particular order.

This or we stand pat.  Maybe get a reliever.  I don’t see too many needs for our team.

[Patzky]

40 minutes ago, Brandon said:

This or we stand pat.  Maybe get a reliever.  I don’t see too many needs for our team.

When Stewart gets back things should look a lot better even if he's only 75 percent of his former self. Varland could help.. I could see using him in a Alcala role. Weiss, Topa, not sure what to expect from them.

Pecking order come September 1st.. Duran Jax Alcala Stewart Varland Staumont Okert Sands Topa.

 

Nothing wrong with that.

 

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

I suppose it depends on whether or not you consider Paddack better than Ober. Personally, I think he's well lower than Ober, but it's clear Ober isn't a guy who would really be considered a preferable option as a playoff starter.

1. Lopez
2. Ryan
3. Woods Richardson
4. Ober
5. DNP

That's probably the order the front office is looking at right now.
The Yankees, Royals and Mariners have potential playoff caliber starters at #4, but the rest of the AL likely playoff teams are 3 quality playoff arms deep before you start getting into the guys you have less confidence in being great.



 

I think that's just another way of taking issue with the OP's position that the top three are nice and neat, Lopez/Ryan/Ober.  I brought up the notion that 4 is a pretty nice number rather than 3, and you suggest the ordering itself could be different.

It's never bad to improve the talent level, whether or not it meets some arbitrary threshold that could fail to even be relevant three months from now - of course assuming the cost is not beyond what the FO can face paying. Always be improving, and the trade deadline is a classic moment to do that.

An Ober threshold or a SWR threshold or a Paddack threshold, any of these is potentially useful as a metric.  Focusing on any single one of these is too static and could be counterproductive for being prepared for multiple scenarios.

[Jocko87]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

I suppose it depends on whether or not you consider Paddack better than Ober. Personally, I think he's well lower than Ober, but it's clear Ober isn't a guy who would really be considered a preferable option as a playoff starter.

1. Lopez
2. Ryan
3. Woods Richardson
4. Ober
5. DNP

That's probably the order the front office is looking at right now.
The Yankees, Royals and Mariners have potential playoff caliber starters at #4, but the rest of the AL likely playoff teams are 3 quality playoff arms deep before you start getting into the guys you have less confidence in being great.



 

If you have SWR over Ober in the postseason pecking order this may not be the discussion for you.  Almost nothing would indicate the front office is thinking this way.  They are closer to Ryan vs Ober if anything.

[Shaitan]

Any move that makes your team better is worth consideration. That includes a SP5. You can't win in the playoffs if you don't get there. It's a long season.

And that's the move I expect: a middling trade for somebody deemed a #4-5 starter who will be insurance if Paddack (or somebody else) goes down again. Otherwise we're watching Festa, Varland, and Dobnak 3.0 or, god help us, Dallas Kuechel.

[Jocko87]

1 hour ago, ashbury said:

I advocate for a Paddack threshold.  For two reasons. 1) I want a long playoff run, and you need a fourth starter for that.  2) Things happen, and Ober himself might be a Game 2 starter or not be available himself.

Best available guy - better than Ober would be cool of course.   I just don't advise the FO to give up if they can't achieve that higher aim in a cost-effective way.

I like the Paddack line but with any line above that you have Ober in the 4 hole so it accomplished the same thing. 

I might be at the Ryan+ line myself.  Lopez gets game one as the longterm mast head of the rotation but a 1 year rental might need to be his equal.

Additional years of control with upside bumps a guy down the scale accordingly for each year of control.

[arby58]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

I suppose it depends on whether or not you consider Paddack better than Ober. Personally, I think he's well lower than Ober, but it's clear Ober isn't a guy who would really be considered a preferable option as a playoff starter.

1. Lopez
2. Ryan
3. Woods Richardson
4. Ober
5. DNP

That's probably the order the front office is looking at right now.
The Yankees, Royals and Mariners have potential playoff caliber starters at #4, but the rest of the AL likely playoff teams are 3 quality playoff arms deep before you start getting into the guys you have less confidence in being great.

There is still a lot of baseball left, and last year Ober's stats were not far off from Gray's. It may be that he has started to 'figure it out.' He has had some incredibly efficient starts of late - including the 89 pitch complete game. I still think he is in the top three. That said, SWR may not have great K%, but the rest of his game is playing pretty well. Yes, he doesn't have many innings under his belt, but neither does one of the Yankees' key starters.  SWR has 87 innings pitched in MLB and Luis Gil has 129.

[tony&rodney]

Well, if people are really focused on adding a good starting pitcher we could always ask Detroit if Lewis for Skubel works. Is that a pitcher folks are interested in adding?

[Rod Carews Birthday]

4 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Well, if people are really focused on adding a good starting pitcher we could always ask Detroit if Lewis for Skubel works. Is that a pitcher folks are interested in adding?

That probably won't be popular on this site, but it's definitely not a completely crazy trade proposal from both sides.  Talk about a true "challenge" trade.  A great year for each of them is Cy Young and MVP, respectively.  Do you trade one for the other?

[tony&rodney]

15 minutes ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

Do you trade one for the other?

Well, I like the Twins starters more than most but when one looks over the vast number of comments calling for Falvey to add a top starting pitcher, it is an idea. Lewis is electric, but Skubel can win a game if the offense gives him one run.

I don't think Detroit accepts Jenkins, Soto, and another guy. Detroit wants to win too. I also don't believe Jenkins is available but then again neither is Lewis in my opinion.

[arby58]

Lewis looks brilliant when he is playing (although this year he has experienced a slump). That said, he has 379 plate appearances over parts of 3 MLB seasons with the Twins. It's phenomenal that he has generated 4.1  WAR over that stretch, but he is a constant risk of another injury. Meanwhile, Skubil is 4.2 WAR this season alone and 9.3 for his career. I'm thinking if anybody says no to this trade, it is Detroit.

[Jocko87]

1 minute ago, tony&rodney said:

 

I don't think Detroit accepts Jenkins, Soto, and another guy.

For Jenkins, Soto and another guy you could get a minority owner stake in the Tigers.

Again, Max Scherzer and 24m cost a single top 50ish prospect last year.

[Morland]

Since when is Tarik Skubal available? That's some fanboy's wet dream! I suppose you think we could get him by trading Farmer, Santana, Vazquez and Matthews or something ridiculous like that.

[arby58]

1 minute ago, Morland said:

Since when is Tarik Skubal available? That's some fanboy's wet dream! I suppose you think we could get him by trading Farmer, Santana, Vazquez and Matthews or something ridiculous like that.

Agree - if Detroit has any chance of getting back into the play-off game in the next couple of years, they need to keep Skubal. They didn't make moves like signing Maeda (boy, that looks better for the Twins every day) if they were going into a 3 or 4 year rebuild.

 

[DocBauer]

I understand Ober as a functional scale, no sense getting someone "below" him, however you define that.

I can also follow @ashbury that maybe you set your sites lower, if necessary, and STILL add someone solid for depth options if nothing else.

But I do have to question any idea that Ober isn't a playoff caliber starter. As of this day, his ERA is about .75 higher than 2023, however, it's actually lower than last year over his last 7 appearances. Further, he's on pace for more IP than last season, with a slightly higher K per 9, but slightly higher BB per 9 and WHIP. His AVG, OB%, and  ABIP are slightly lower than 2023, but his SLG% is slightly higher. If WINS are a statistic you like to use as a measuring stick, he's already equalled last year.

All this to say Ober was very good in 2023. His numbers are very, very comparable to last season, with a couple very close ups and downs. If the guy never had to face the Royals his numbers would be even better. WOOF! 

I think he's a legitimate, quality #3 starter. So to me, he's already a playoff  caliber starter. I don't know how you can do better unless you give up an awful lot for a rental, hut I guess if you DID find someone better, you'd have a hell of a potential 1-4.

[mikelink45]

I just can't speculate.  Maybe I value our prospects and players too much,  but no way would I give up Lewis and if we need four Paddock sits.  The real problem is the question of Lopez and what type of game our "Ace" gives us. 

[tony&rodney]

3 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

For Jenkins, Soto and another guy you could get a minority owner stake in the Tigers.

Again, Max Scherzer and 24m cost a single top 50ish prospect last year.

Max once was what Tarik is at this time.

I am not  suggesting a trade of Lewis for Skubel as much as saying that the cost for a decent starting pitcher would be high. I have no idea what people suggest but I am just saying that Lewis for Skubel is a fair deal. When folks bring up a player they want to acquire it is reasonable to see what they think is fair in return.

[tony&rodney]

8 minutes ago, Morland said:

Since when is Tarik Skubal available? That's some fanboy's wet dream! I suppose you think we could get him by trading Farmer, Santana, Vazquez and Matthews or something ridiculous like that.

Detroit has run into a bit of a wall in efforts to extend Skubel and they need top bats. The Tigers are not shopping Skubel but every player is available for a price (see Juan Soto). A number of sites have wondered what it would take, either to sign him to a long term deal (Detroit) or in a deal with another team. Just talk.

I don't have any notion of why you mentioned names like Farmer, Santana, Vazquez, and Matthews. Where did you see mention of these players in trades? I have yet to see anything on any site mentioning these guys.

[tony&rodney]

19 minutes ago, arby58 said:

Lewis looks brilliant when he is playing (although this year he has experienced a slump). That said, he has 379 plate appearances over parts of 3 MLB seasons with the Twins. It's phenomenal that he has generated 4.1  WAR over that stretch, but he is a constant risk of another injury. Meanwhile, Skubil is 4.2 WAR this season alone and 9.3 for his career. I'm thinking if anybody says no to this trade, it is Detroit.

I would agree.

[JD-TWINS]

3 hours ago, Patzky said:

Eovaldi, Flaherty, Kikuchi, Fedde in no particular order.

Can’t imagine a scenario where Texas lets Eovaldi go. Seattle’s offense is horrendous and Texas could get hot and win 10 of 13 and catch Seattle over a 2 week stretch. Houston made up 7 games in 12 days a couple weeks ago. Texas has too many $$ invested to back off their current #1 starter.

Flaherty & Fedde both being in our Division seems to be an obstacle to me.

Flaherty had 9 straight solid starts until June 27 when he gave up 5 runs……..hasn’t pitched since, through yesterday. Must have some injury? Fedde would apparently be ecstatic to get out of Chicago. He’s affordable through next year.

Kikuchi pitched well early and then struggled in 5 of 7 games from 5/26 forward. First 2 starts of July have been good though! He’s interesting!

[Jocko87]

29 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Max once was what Tarik is at this time.

Tarik Skubal is a knock off Max Scherzer, year by year.  Not that Tarik is bad, Max was just that much better, earlier.  Skubal is about to turn 28, Max had about 1000 ace level innings by then.  

Don't trade for guys the year after they put it together.  We may not even know the name of the guy they grab, which doesn't necessarily help this year and I'm fine with that.

I think it's more important to send away the right hitters for a guy they think will be an ace than any move focused on this year.  Scherzer was traded at 24 after 225+ innings for a relative song.  

Find that guy.  

[gmwannabe]

Julien, Kiirilloff, Soto or Matthews, and any other prospect they want not named Jenkins or Rodriguez to the Whities for Fedde and Kopech.

[Paul Walerius]

2 hours ago, Shaitan said:

Any move that makes your team better is worth consideration. That includes a SP5. You can't win in the playoffs if you don't get there. It's a long season.

And that's the move I expect: a middling trade for somebody deemed a #4-5 starter who will be insurance if Paddack (or somebody else) goes down again. Otherwise we're watching Festa, Varland, and Dobnak 3.0 or, god help us, Dallas Kuechel.

Don't like Festa being lumped in there.   SWR was not good his first few chances.  Festa could go either way but seems to have what it takes (other than experience) 

[dxpavelka]

3 hours ago, Jocko87 said:

If you have SWR over Ober in the postseason pecking order this may not be the discussion for you.  Almost nothing would indicate the front office is thinking this way.  They are closer to Ryan vs Ober if anything.

69 games remaining in the season could change a lot of things.

[Patzky]

7 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

I just can't speculate.  Maybe I value our prospects and players too much,  but no way would I give up Lewis and if we need four Paddock sits.  The real problem is the question of Lopez and what type of game our "Ace" gives us. 

He doesn't quack like an ace anymore. His five quality innings against Chicago were painful to watch. No playoff team's batting order will remotely resemble the White Sox but at the end of the day, 2 ER is alright by me no matter how it was gotten.

[Doctor Wu]

Based on their performances so far this season, if we can harness the BEST of Lopez, Ryan, Ober, and Paddack, then we will be more than fine in the playoffs. But hoping for that and depending on that are two different things. It's tempting to think about trading for another quality arm to add to the rotation, but I'm not sure if it's either realistic or even necessary. At this point, I'm willing to go with what we have, and maybe even SWR or Festa can take it up a notch too.