Max Kepler Is Searching for a Million Dollar Second-Half

[Cody Christie]

Max Kepler surprised many with an offensive outburst last season. However, he’s failed to replicate those results. Can he rediscover his successful approach?

Image courtesy of Rhona Wise-USA TODAY Sports

Max Kepler is at a critical juncture in his big-league career. He’s been part of the Twins organization since signing as a 16-year-old, but his time is quickly coming to an end. Kepler will be a free agent at season’s end and will hit the open market searching for a big payday for the first time. To get the biggest contract, he needs to make some second-half adjustments to match his 2023 campaign. 

KKKKKKepler at the Plate
Kepler hasn’t been known as a player who has struck out a lot during his career. He puts the ball in play, but sometimes the result is weak contact to avoid swings and misses. His K%, Chase%, and Whiff% are all in the 53rd percentile or lower in 2024. Last season, his Chase% and Whiff% ranked in the 75th percentile or higher.

It’s also more concerning that his strikeout rate has been rising in recent weeks. From June 2nd-July 4th, Kepler has struck out 26 times in 93 plate appearances. During that 23-game stretch, he has five games with three strikeouts and seven games with two strikeouts or more. Kepler isn’t getting more power due to his increase in strikeouts, so something needs to change in his approach.  

(Not) Walking Through Memphis
While his strike issues are concerning, Kepler has significantly dropped his walk rate. Last season, he posted a 9.2 BB%, which ranked in the 59th percentile. His walk rate has dropped to 5.9% this season, ranking in the 21st percentile. Kepler’s current .306 OBP is the lowest of his career and sits 26 points below the 2024 campaign.

Pitchers have likely changed their approach with Kepler since he isn’t hitting for power and is striking out more regularly. Opponents don’t need to worry about walking Kepler, so they can make him get himself out without issuing a free pass. 

Gotcha with the Fastball?
Kepler feasted on fastballs last season with a .624 xSLG compared to a .473 xSLG in 2024. His Whiff% against fastballs has increased by over 9% this season, and it might be the easiest pitch that has caused the issue.

In 2023, Kepler posted a positive run value against pitches in the heart of the plate for the first time since 2019. So far this year, he’s been worth -7 runs on pitches deemed in the heart of the plate. Kepler has been swinging through some of the easiest pitches, which has led to struggles in previous seasons. 

Where’s the Beef?
To give some perspective, Kepler posted a .688 OPS in the first half of last season, and his OPS is higher than that in 2024. During his terrific second half, he hit .306/.377/.549 (.926) with 17 doubles, two triples, and 12 home runs. He drew more walks and cut back on his strikeouts while being one of the AL’s best hitters.

This year, his 18.3 launch angle is higher than any of the last three seasons, impacting his hard hit%, which has dropped by over 9%. When Kepler is at his best, he is hitting smooth line drives to all parts of the field. He’s under the ball too much this season, impacting his ability to post power numbers. 

Kepler will be remembered as one of the best defensive outfielders in the Target Field era, and he’s likely headed to the team's Hall of Fame. Like with many former top prospects, Kepler’s career includes an element of “What Could Have Been.” He’s shown flashes of the five-tool prospect label he was given before making his big-league debut. However, the offensive performance has been inconsistent or underwhelming for chunks of his Twins tenure. Another second-half turnaround could make him millions of dollars in free agency, but that would mean addressing most of the above-mentioned areas. 

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Can Kepler repeat his second-half performance from 2023? What area is most important to address? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

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[Karbo]

He was hot early this year but has cooled a lot in June. Still have time to put up decent numbers yet this year. I think the only way he is with them next year would be to take a sizeable hometown discount. I don't know how he feels about that but IMO that is unlikely. Some team will offer him more money or longer term or both.

[Doctor Gast]

Last season 2nd half Kepler changed course & went to the "all or nothing" approach. The adjustment turned his career around. Unfortunately, the league adjusted to him early this season but he readjusted & found early success. Kepler must be thinking the same as you, in wanting a bigger payday. IMO he has reverted back to the "all or nothing" approach, hoping for the same results as the end of last season but the pitchers are ready for him. IMO the only success he'll achieve is going back to how he swung earlier this year.

[Joe A. Preusser]

I think he will be a very valuable player in the 2nd half playoff push.  Hope his bat shows out and he gets a monster payday next year.  

[JD-TWINS]

His stats intertwine a bit ……swinging through good pitches seem to be the root of the issues. If a hitter doesn’t capitalize on good pitches to hit……they then have to hit/swing at pitches around the periphery as well……more K’s!! If a guy isn’t punishing pitches in the middle and he’s striking out more there is less reason to “be careful” which leads to less walks.

In 65 games played out of 89 scheduled, he’s got a real shot at 15 HR’s - 70 RBI - 2.5 WAR (currently 1.1 WAR) ……he’s hitting above career BA at .258 currently……30 doubles seems fairly likely if he plays a handful more games in 2nd half. He’s started terribly - got very hot - dipped & now seems to be stabilizing.

He won’t be with the Twins next year but the balance of this season could be fun for both sides. With the balance all around him in the line-up he doesn’t shoulder a bunch of pressure - hoping for good things if he maintains his health!!

[Fatbat]

He should be one of the top RF fa this fall. It would make sense for the FO to give him a QO because he will get a 3-4 yr deal in the $70M range.  For us, he is replaceable and an extra draft pick will be a nice addition to our farm system. 

[Rosterman]

He needs to just play and showcase, not only for the Twins but for himself. The Twins might be able to flip him for a couple of low level prospects if another team has an oufielder fall-out right before the trade ddeadline. Otehrwise, he will jsut become a free agent. And, unless he has a second half like last season, he will be fighting for any kind of decent contract.

It's too bad the Twins weren't able to trade him during the past off-season, rid themselves of his current contract. But then they would've had to play more of - ? - who in the outfield the first half of the season.

[FlyingFinn]

The current Kepler is more the "normal" Kepler. He had a great 2nd half last year and one other great year. Those are the outliers. I thought his defense dipped in early 2023 but since then he has been excellent out in RF. The Twins won't do a QO on him as I don't think he will get a $50 million deal this offseason due to his age and average hitting.

[DJL44]

I suppose he could be a Twins Hall of Famer but he doesn't have much of a resume. He's never been an All-Star. He has two AL Player of the week awards in 10 seasons. That's about it. He's been a solid player but I don't think of him as a Twins all-time great.

[tony&rodney]

Kepler is a good baseball player. I am just enjoying that he is still playing for the Twins.

[Seth Stohs]

One year ago today, I never would have imagined that Kepler would be able to get a $40-65 million deal. 

[JAH]

Over the past few years, there has been a lot of “trade Kepler” talk because we have an over-abundance of outfielders, especially left-handed corner outfielders.  Rooker came up and looked good for a few games, got hit/hurt, came back poorly and was traded.  Larnach showed flashes, but could not stick.  This year, he didn’t make the team, but has been doing alright since his call-up. Will he finally stick?  Kirilloff - I thought he was going to be the Twins’ next superstar. That has not panned out, at least yet.  And then there is Wallner.  He was handed a starting position, but could not keep it. Now he is back, but will he stick?  Who am I forgetting?  Jake Cave. 
 

The Twins have not had a full-time left fielder since Rosario. They have not had a full-time center fielder due to Buxton’s injuries every year. Kepler has been the only constant and he plays great defense. No one has yet to push him out of his position.  He has given about 15 years to the organization.  He is a fan favorite, especially with females.  Instead of worrying about free agency and paying a $20 million qualifying offer, or trading him at the deadline, perhaps what should be addressed is a contract extension. 

[Riverbrian]

What kind of contract does a left handed platoon hitter with a .728 OPS against right handed pitching get?

It would be in his best interest to get hot post all-star break... just like he did last year. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[DJL44]

28 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

What kind of contract does a left handed platoon hitter with a .728 OPS against right handed pitching get?

It would be in his best interest to get hot post all-star break... just like he did last year. 

About $8-12M per season because he can catch the ball.

[Riverbrian]

23 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

About $8-12M per season because he can catch the ball.

I forgot to add.

It would be in Max Kepler's best interest if he could play CF. 

Preferably like Kevin Kiermaier... if he's going to hit like Kiermaier. 

 

[h2oface]

More writing Kepler off. Gets old every year, and every year you are all wrong. I hope he is a Twin for his whole career. 

[DJL44]

8 hours ago, JAH said:

perhaps what should be addressed is a contract extension. 

Please, no. We've already seen the best years of Max Kepler's career.

[srlarson]

if Margot is getting 10 million this year....that has to be the floor for Kepler....

[DJL44]

14 minutes ago, srlarson said:

if Margot is getting 10 million this year....that has to be the floor for Kepler....

He's getting that based on a contract he signed years ago when he was performing better. The $4M the Twins are paying Margot is a much better indicator of his current market value.

[jkcarew]

I sure hope he finds it…win/win.

[adorduan]

On 7/8/2024 at 12:32 AM, JAH said:

Over the past few years, there has been a lot of “trade Kepler” talk because we have an over-abundance of outfielders, especially left-handed corner outfielders.  Rooker came up and looked good for a few games, got hit/hurt, came back poorly and was traded.  Larnach showed flashes, but could not stick.  This year, he didn’t make the team, but has been doing alright since his call-up. Will he finally stick?  Kirilloff - I thought he was going to be the Twins’ next superstar. That has not panned out, at least yet.  And then there is Wallner.  He was handed a starting position, but could not keep it. Now he is back, but will he stick?  Who am I forgetting?  Jake Cave. 
 

The Twins have not had a full-time left fielder since Rosario. They have not had a full-time center fielder due to Buxton’s injuries every year. Kepler has been the only constant and he plays great defense. No one has yet to push him out of his position.  He has given about 15 years to the organization.  He is a fan favorite, especially with females.  Instead of worrying about free agency and paying a $20 million qualifying offer, or trading him at the deadline, perhaps what should be addressed is a contract extension. 

No offense, but but being a "fan favorite" with the ladies doesn't win games...

[RpR]

15 minutes ago, adorduan said:

No offense, but but being a "fan favorite" with the ladies doesn't win games...

It brings fans to the stands which puts money in the Front Office coffers, what the Front Office cares most about probably.

[h2oface]

6 hours ago, adorduan said:

No offense, but but being a "fan favorite" with the ladies doesn't win games...

Wow. And this aside is what you are showcasing and got out of the many perspectives of that great post by @JAH? Regardless of one's opinion on Kepler's value - if you are a fan that is all about statistical value and the business, or one that enjoys continuity and loyalty above one or two year strangers with a statcast niche - the post had an insightful and interesting take on the whole Kepler discussion.

[Fatbat]

On 7/8/2024 at 6:28 AM, DJL44 said:

About $8-12M per season because he can catch the ball.

Kep has a 20.9 career WAR and 1.2 WAR so far in 2024.  Right now 1WAR is valued at about $8.5M so I would think he will be getting $18-20M per season on a 3-4 year deal somewhere next season.  No way he wont test free agency. 

[DJL44]

10 hours ago, Fatbat said:

Kep has a 20.9 career WAR and 1.2 WAR so far in 2024.  Right now 1WAR is valued at about $8.5M so I would think he will be getting $18-20M per season on a 3-4 year deal somewhere next season.  No way he wont test free agency. 

Look over what comparable players made last offseason and you get Joc Pederson at $9.5M with a $14M option and Jayson Heyward at 1 year $9M. I don't see Kepler doubling those contracts and I definitely don't see him getting double that on a 4 year deal. Who wants to bet big on 35-year-old Max Kepler?

[Fatbat]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

Look over what comparable players made last offseason and you get Joc Pederson at $9.5M with a $14M option and Jayson Heyward at 1 year $9M. I don't see Kepler doubling those contracts and I definitely don't see him getting double that on a 4 year deal. Who wants to bet big on 35-year-old Max Kepler?

The Mets. Kep at age 32-35. 
 

Mariners or Giants

[LA Vikes Fan]

I don't want to jinx the guy, but Kepler's better second-half may have already begun. He is slashing .375/.425/.417 (.792) over the last seven games. His on-base percentage and slugging percentage have been steadily rising over the last 25 games. It looks to me like he has gone back to the "hit live drives, use the middle of the field, and hit ground balls through the left side" approach that really worked for him last year in the second half. I disagree that he started to sell out for power in the second half last year, I think it's just the reverse. He stopped selling out for power in the 2024 second half and became a line drive hitter. Hence all the doubles and higher batting average, and lookee here, he still had some home runs. I'm not surprised that his launch angle is higher this year because I think he was back to selling out to hit home runs at the start of the season. That's the same thing that killed him in 2020 until the second half of 2023. Now, the statistics and the eye test both suggest to me that he's back to being the line drive hitter that best suits his game and the results are beginning to show. I've also seen several games where he hit two or three line drives but only one of them fell for hit so I think this is sustainable.

I think there is a better than 50/50 chance that Kepler will have a second-half with an OPS of over .750 and it could even be much better than that. That's a guy you want to keep around, especially as well as he plays on defense. I was one in the camp last year of "DFA Kepler" but I think the guy actually is worth having around at least through the end of this season. I think the thought of trading him at the deadline for anything less than immediate late inning quality bullpen help would be the definition of insanity. We need him now and should only trade him if we get a significant immediate upgrade in our pitching staff in return.

As for re-signing him, that's a much tougher question given who we have in the minors that could potentially replace him. I wouldn't be adverse to a one or two-year deal at around $10 million-$12 million per year, or even a three year deal that started 12 million, then went down to something like 10 million, then went on to something like 7 or 8 million as he ages. He certainly has value as a solid corner outfielder now aging into maybe a good 4th outfielder and that's what guys like that cost, if not more. It's a little tough given all of the outfield candidates we have in the minors but, as one other poster mentioned, all those guys are only prospects at this point. The "only prospects" label includes both Larnach and Wallner IMHO. We don't even at this point have established LF unless Castro gets moved there as he get squeezed out of the infield by Maranda and Lee. Keeping Kepler around for another couple years could make a lot of sense.

[adorduan]

On 7/9/2024 at 2:31 PM, RpR said:

It brings fans to the stands which puts money in the Front Office coffers, what the Front Office cares most about probably.

You really think women come to a game just to watch Kepler?