Twins Video
Max Kepler is at a critical juncture in his big-league career. He’s been part of the Twins organization since signing as a 16-year-old, but his time is quickly coming to an end. Kepler will be a free agent at season’s end and will hit the open market searching for a big payday for the first time. To get the biggest contract, he needs to make some second-half adjustments to match his 2023 campaign.
KKKKKKepler at the Plate
Kepler hasn’t been known as a player who has struck out a lot during his career. He puts the ball in play, but sometimes the result is weak contact to avoid swings and misses. His K%, Chase%, and Whiff% are all in the 53rd percentile or lower in 2024. Last season, his Chase% and Whiff% ranked in the 75th percentile or higher.
It’s also more concerning that his strikeout rate has been rising in recent weeks. From June 2nd-July 4th, Kepler has struck out 26 times in 93 plate appearances. During that 23-game stretch, he has five games with three strikeouts and seven games with two strikeouts or more. Kepler isn’t getting more power due to his increase in strikeouts, so something needs to change in his approach.
(Not) Walking Through Memphis
While his strike issues are concerning, Kepler has significantly dropped his walk rate. Last season, he posted a 9.2 BB%, which ranked in the 59th percentile. His walk rate has dropped to 5.9% this season, ranking in the 21st percentile. Kepler’s current .306 OBP is the lowest of his career and sits 26 points below the 2024 campaign.
Pitchers have likely changed their approach with Kepler since he isn’t hitting for power and is striking out more regularly. Opponents don’t need to worry about walking Kepler, so they can make him get himself out without issuing a free pass.
Gotcha with the Fastball?
Kepler feasted on fastballs last season with a .624 xSLG compared to a .473 xSLG in 2024. His Whiff% against fastballs has increased by over 9% this season, and it might be the easiest pitch that has caused the issue.
In 2023, Kepler posted a positive run value against pitches in the heart of the plate for the first time since 2019. So far this year, he’s been worth -7 runs on pitches deemed in the heart of the plate. Kepler has been swinging through some of the easiest pitches, which has led to struggles in previous seasons.
Where’s the Beef?
To give some perspective, Kepler posted a .688 OPS in the first half of last season, and his OPS is higher than that in 2024. During his terrific second half, he hit .306/.377/.549 (.926) with 17 doubles, two triples, and 12 home runs. He drew more walks and cut back on his strikeouts while being one of the AL’s best hitters.
This year, his 18.3 launch angle is higher than any of the last three seasons, impacting his hard hit%, which has dropped by over 9%. When Kepler is at his best, he is hitting smooth line drives to all parts of the field. He’s under the ball too much this season, impacting his ability to post power numbers.
Kepler will be remembered as one of the best defensive outfielders in the Target Field era, and he’s likely headed to the team's Hall of Fame. Like with many former top prospects, Kepler’s career includes an element of “What Could Have Been.” He’s shown flashes of the five-tool prospect label he was given before making his big-league debut. However, the offensive performance has been inconsistent or underwhelming for chunks of his Twins tenure. Another second-half turnaround could make him millions of dollars in free agency, but that would mean addressing most of the above-mentioned areas.
Can Kepler repeat his second-half performance from 2023? What area is most important to address? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.
Follow Twins Daily For Minnesota Twins News & Analysis
- Melissa, nclahammer and Patzky
-
3
Recommended Comments
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now