Who are the Luckiest and Unluckiest Twins Hitters This Season?

[Matthew Taylor]

Four Twins hitters are performing considerably worse or better than their numbers.

Image courtesy of © Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

 

Underlying statistics, particularly batted ball metrics such as exit velocity and launch angle, are far more predictive of future performance than traditional stats like slugging percentage and OPS. These advanced metrics help us understand the quality of a player's contact and provide insight into whether their current performance is sustainable.

To determine which Twins hitters have been the luckiest and unluckiest this season, we’ll use two key metrics: Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) and Expected Weighted On-Base Average (xwOBA). wOBA captures a hitter's overall offensive value, while xwOBA predicts what a player's wOBA should be based on the quality of their contact (exit velocity, launch angle, and batted ball type). The difference between these two metrics can indicate whether a player has been particularly fortunate or unfortunate.

Luckiest Twins Hitters
1. José Miranda
wOBA: .353
xwOBA: .328
Difference: 0.025

José Miranda is coming off one of the best months of his career in June, where he posted a .940 OPS across 25 games. On the season, Miranda is posting career-high numbers in just about every metric. However, the advanced metrics suggest a dip in his performance could be coming.

Miranda is currently hitting like a top-30 player in baseball with an OPS of .821, yet his barrel rates and hard-hit rates are only in the 50th percentile. While he has made significant improvements in his approach at the plate—lowering his K% and whiff%—his batted ball metrics still outpace his 2022 numbers. The reality is that the 2024 José Miranda likely sits somewhere between his 114 OPS+ in his rookie season in 2022 and his current 131 OPS+.

2. Willi Castro
wOBA: .353
xwOBA: .332
Difference: 0.021

Willi Castro's breakout season at the plate is one of the most surprising developments of the 2024 MLB season. While he has made strides at the plate, luck has played a significant role in his impressive numbers.

Castro currently sports an OPS of .804, ahead of the likes of Corey Seager, Austin Riley, and Matt Olson, despite having an average exit velocity in the 29th percentile and a barrel percentage in the 45th percentile. Castro’s luck is evident in his .356 BABIP, the fifth highest in baseball. Although BABIP isn't purely about luck, his career BABIP of .319 suggests a regression to the mean is likely in the second half of the season. Castro has certainly improved, but his underlying metrics indicate his numbers have been somewhat inflated by luck.

Unluckiest Twins Hitters
1. Manuel Margot
wOBA: .294
xwOBA: .344
Difference: -0.050

Manuel Margot had a nightmare start to the 2024 season. Through the month of May, Margot owned an OPS of .528 and caused many fans to petition for a DFA. The Minnesota Twins decided to stick with the struggling veteran, likely because they looked at his underlying metrics and saw that he was better than his numbers showed. Minnesota's patience with Margot has started to pay off as the right-hander has posted a .899 OPS since the start of June and is hitting like they expected him to when they acquired Margot this offseason.

Even with his hot month of June, Margot still ranks out as the unluckiest hitter on the Minnesota Twins this season, and one look at his Baseball Reference page makes it easy to see why. Despite hitting like a far-below average player over the course of the season, Margot has batted ball metrics, like average exit velocity and hard hit % near the 50th percentile, not dissimilar from the likes of José Miranda. Additionally, Margot is in the 87th percentile for K%, with a career-low strikeout rate of 15%.

Margot clearly won't hit like the .899 OPS that he showed in the month of June, but his underlying metrics certainly point to a guy with an OPS that starts with 7 rather than the OPS of .528 that we saw for the first couple of months of the season, and for a backup outfielder that's been solid on the base paths, that's a quality player to have on your team.

2. Trevor Larnach
wOBA: .323
xwOBA: .361
Difference: -0.038

Trevor Larnach hits the snot out of the ball. Larnach leads the Minnesota Twins in average exit velocity and barrels per plate appearance. He hits the ball hard (95+ MPH) 43.8% of the time and can hit tanks to all parts of the ballpark with no problem.

With a hitting profile like that, it's surprising to see that he only has a wOBA of .323 and a solid, but not excellent OPS of .746. Larnach has a career-low BABIP of .271, though everything in his profile points to him posting an OPS in the 800s. Larnach has a career-low K% and career-best plate discipline numbers, he's just unfortunately ripping balls to the wrong spots. Like the example below.

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Did any of the discussed names surprise you? Do you think regression will hit all of the players listed? Leave a comment below and start the conversation!

 

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[Karbo]

Just using the eye ball method I would have guessed Larnach. Surprised it was Margot.

[Mark G]

My entire life I have been told that if a pitcher spots his pitch, and, as such, you hit it where he wanted you to hit it all along, it really doesn't matter how hard you hit it, you are just as out.  As an old(er) guy, I remember watching Carew as a kid and watch Arraez now, and it never seems to matter how hard they hit it, they hit it where they want, not where the pitcher wants.  Yes, there always has been luck in baseball, and there always will be.  But I guess I am just one of the few remaining folks that don't pay attention to all the fancy computer numbers; I just watch someone hit.  And when I see someone who hits the pitcher's pitch somewhere the pitcher did not want him to hit it, I just smile, I don't marvel at the exit velocity (or lack of).  When I see someone who needs luck to hit, or complains about bad luck when he doesn't, I just move on.  

That doesn't mean Matthew didn't write a great article; he did!  I enjoyed reading it, and I understand why a lot of people think this way now.  I guess I just like to watch players hit, and at the end of the year, the results will speak for themselves; I don't need a computer to help me.  ☺️

But, as always, I can be educated.  😉

[miracleb]

Yep.......looks like Miranda got lucky in June and is regressing in July and........errrr........nevermind!

[Brandon]

Where does Farmer sit on the list?  
 

one thing that helps Castro is his speed. I wonder how many extra hits and doubles he was able to squeak out because of his speed.

[LambchoP]

I know Margot had a decent June, but I still say it's long past due we try to trade him for whatever we can get or DFA him. His defense is not even good enough to rely on, he's made way too many errors as a glove first fourth outfielder. Give his roster spot to Wallner or Keirsey. No reason to keep Margot around anymore,he's a liability.

[Doctor Gast]

Very interesting article Matthew & it'd have been nice to have extended those lists to see where other sits.

"Underlying statistics, particularly batted ball metrics such as exit velocity and launch angle, are far more predictive of future performance than traditional stats like slugging percentage and OPS. These advanced metrics help us understand the quality of a player's contact and provide insight into whether their current performance is sustainable."

I grant you that top elected analysts today love & depend exclusively on exit velocity & launch angle. IMO these stats don't tell me how lucky or how good a hitter is. Grant you that exit velo has value and GBs are normally not desirable but with less importance put on INFers glove & more on his bat IMO it has less value.  If exit velocity & launch angle are the gauges to measure how lucky or how good a batter is, Then Arraez is the worst & luckiest hitter on the planet.

Exit velocity & launch angle only tell me what kind of hitter a batter is. A high launch angle normally tells me that he's an "all or nothing" slugger who strikes out a lot & has a programmed swing easy for a fielder to position himself, so when this hitter flies out, he's not unlucky. The league has the book on these hitters which produce much fewer HRs & more SOs (SEA's dilemma). Lower launch angles are normally contact hitters. While sluggers have high exit velocity so can some contact hitters, here is where luck comes in when a contact hitter FO.

[Brandon]

45 minutes ago, LambchoP said:

I know Margot had a decent June, but I still say it's long past due we try to trade him for whatever we can get or DFA him. His defense is not even good enough to rely on, he's made way too many errors as a glove first fourth outfielder. Give his roster spot to Wallner or Keirsey. No reason to keep Margot around anymore,he's a liability.

We should totally dump the guy for a slump he had back in April.  The .899 OPS he had in June and is carrying forward now has no place on the team because of how he hit during the first month or so of the season.  

[Reptevia]

10 minutes ago, Brandon said:

We should totally dump the guy for a slump he had back in April.  The .899 OPS he had in June and is carrying forward now has no place on the team because of how he hit during the first month or so of the season.  

We should hang onto a guy indefinitely despite his awful actual numbers and contributions, because his *expected* numbers suggest he’s “unlucky”?  Makes about as much sense. 

[USAFChief]

24 minutes ago, Brandon said:

We should totally dump the guy for a slump he had back in April.  The .899 OPS he had in June and is carrying forward now has no place on the team because of how he hit during the first month or so of the season.  

He's well below league average for the year, where he's been every year of his career except one. He provides no defensive value, and isn't a valuable base runner.

He can hit left handed pitching, most likely, at an acceptable rate. But he's pretty much unusable against RH pitching.

Of course, our genius manager has somehow managed to give him more PAs against RH pitching than LH. With a .477 OPS to show for it.

Get him off the team so Rocco can't use him.

And for the record, it was April AND May where he was awful, not just "April."

And further for the record, the lazy fliner that clanked off his glove in left last night proved to be the one run difference. 

 

[yeahyabetcha]

1 hour ago, LambchoP said:

I know Margot had a decent June, but I still say it's long past due we try to trade him for whatever we can get or DFA him. His defense is not even good enough to rely on, he's made way too many errors as a glove first fourth outfielder. Give his roster spot to Wallner or Keirsey. No reason to keep Margot around anymore,he's a liability.

Despite his shortcomings, he is still a better fielder than Wallner and much better at hitting lefties.  I prefer him as a bench piece for the playoffs over an unproven rookie like Keirsey 

[CRF]

You can throw all the metrics/analytics at me, whenever/wherever you want, about whomever you want, and it doesn't make any difference. Go ahead, feel free. I'm too old to understand 99% of it anyway. I know what I can see, and that's all that matters to me. There's no way you could ever convince me, that Margot deserves to be on this roster. There HAS to be a kid in AAA, AA, or even A ball...that can do everything that Margot does...and he sure doesn't do much...at a fraction of what this FO is paying Margot. They're so concerned about payroll, but they piss money away on stiffs like good old Manny, over a young guy. Rocco must love the guy though, because he trots him out there every time a lefty is pitching, and he uses him pinch hitting all the time too. He's like what...0 for the season as a PH. Rocco even thinks he's a suitable defensive replacement, which is so far out there it isn't even funny. 

[yeahyabetcha]

15 minutes ago, CRF said:

You can throw all the metrics/analytics at me, whenever/wherever you want, about whomever you want, and it doesn't make any difference. Go ahead, feel free. I'm too old to understand 99% of it anyway. I know what I can see, and that's all that matters to me. There's no way you could ever convince me, that Margot deserves to be on this roster. There HAS to be a kid in AAA, AA, or even A ball...that can do everything that Margot does...and he sure doesn't do much...at a fraction of what this FO is paying Margot. They're so concerned about payroll, but they piss money away on stiffs like good old Manny, over a young guy. Rocco must love the guy though, because he trots him out there every time a lefty is pitching, and he uses him pinch hitting all the time too. He's like what...0 for the season as a PH. Rocco even thinks he's a suitable defensive replacement, which is so far out there it isn't even funny. 

I know it is the cool thing to do to crap on Margot, but despite his shortcomings he is still the third best defensive outfielder on the roster.  And to think that some random minor leaguer can hit lefties better than he does is fools gold.  If used correctly, he provides value to a roster.

[bean5302]

xwOBA can be a great metric, but like a lot of metrics, it can be misleading in isolation. Like How Kepler used to have a terrible actual wOBA vs. his expected because of how extreme the shift was deployed (effectively) against him. If a player has extreme batted ball tendencies, defenses will shift accordingly, and the results of those shifts make an impact on actual production. Depending on the stadium in which the player is taking their plate appearances, it can also impact the results. For example, Target Field is a poor stadium for left hander home runs due to the tall right field wall. What would normally be a home run based on exit velocity and launch angle turns into a single or double off the wall at Target Field. That's not really "luck" related.

Trevor Larnach hits the snot out of the ball! Ehhhh, not really. Since the beginning of June, Larnach is averaging an exit velocity of 89.0mph, which is just league average. Larnach had a blistering start to the year, and through mid May, he was really crushing it. From that point on, it was a steady trend down which correlated with his performance against breaking balls regressing back to what it used to be. Larnach's changed approach at the plate to be more aggressive was met with an effective corresponding change by pitchers. It's not like Larnach is a bad hitter overall, he's just a league average hitter. Given his 900 plate appearances at the MLB level, I need to see more than a hot 80 plate appearances to convince me much has changed.

[bean5302]

7 minutes ago, yeahyabetcha said:

I know it is the cool thing to do to crap on Margot, but despite his shortcomings he is still the third best defensive outfielder on the roster.  And to think that some random minor leaguer can hit lefties better than he does is fools gold.  If used correctly, he provides value to a roster.

Wallner is a far superior fielder to Margot, sorry. Margot has been terrible out there and he doesn't have the physical talent to overcome his errant play anymore.

UZR/150 LF = -15.6 this year, backed up by -3 OAA in 165 innings. The trend for Margot on UZR/150 is nice and linear, and bad if you're arguing for his defensive prowess. OF overall from 2020-2024 = 9.5, 3.7, (0.2), (7.4), (12.1). 

Matt Wallner was league average last year in terms of UZR/150 in combined LF and RF as much as people hate on him, DRS is +2 for the year in the OF. OAA isn't so happy with him, but combining the metrics paints a picture of him being about average-ish. He's awkward looking in the field, and he boots a ball now and again, but he's deceptively fast. Fast enough to cover CF if he had the instincts for it, and his arm is a weapon.

Margot is likely the worst outfielder on the Twins right now.

[USAFChief]

43 minutes ago, yeahyabetcha said:

 Margot... is still the third best defensive outfielder on the roster.  

False.

[Linus]

25 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

False.

That aspect of his play is more disappointing than his hitting. He’s not good in the field and at times has downright bad. 

[Doctor Gast]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

xwOBA can be a great metric, but like a lot of metrics, it can be misleading in isolation. Like How Kepler used to have a terrible actual wOBA vs. his expected because of how extreme the shift was deployed (effectively) against him. If a player has extreme batted ball tendencies, defenses will shift accordingly, and the results of those shifts make an impact on actual production. Depending on the stadium in which the player is taking their plate appearances, it can also impact the results. For example, Target Field is a poor stadium for left hander home runs due to the tall right field wall. What would normally be a home run based on exit velocity and launch angle turns into a single or double off the wall at Target Field. That's not really "luck" related.

Trevor Larnach hits the snot out of the ball! Ehhhh, not really. Since the beginning of June, Larnach is averaging an exit velocity of 89.0mph, which is just league average. Larnach had a blistering start to the year, and through mid May, he was really crushing it. From that point on, it was a steady trend down which correlated with his performance against breaking balls regressing back to what it used to be. Larnach's changed approach at the plate to be more aggressive was met with an effective corresponding change by pitchers. It's not like Larnach is a bad hitter overall, he's just a league average hitter. Given his 900 plate appearances at the MLB level, I need to see more than a hot 80 plate appearances to convince me much has changed.

I was supposing that Larnach was regressing back to his old approach & that it's hard for him to maintain that new approach. Which makes it hard for me to put him above Wallner.

[Doctor Gast]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

Wallner is a far superior fielder to Margot, sorry. Margot has been terrible out there and he doesn't have the physical talent to overcome his errant play anymore.

UZR/150 LF = -15.6 this year, backed up by -3 OAA in 165 innings. The trend for Margot on UZR/150 is nice and linear, and bad if you're arguing for his defensive prowess. OF overall from 2020-2024 = 9.5, 3.7, (0.2), (7.4), (12.1). 

Matt Wallner was league average last year in terms of UZR/150 in combined LF and RF as much as people hate on him, DRS is +2 for the year in the OF. OAA isn't so happy with him, but combining the metrics paints a picture of him being about average-ish. He's awkward looking in the field, and he boots a ball now and again, but he's deceptively fast. Fast enough to cover CF if he had the instincts for it, and his arm is a weapon.

Margot is likely the worst outfielder on the Twins right now.

Wallner has the tools to become a great OFer once they develop his ball reaction & routes. I'm sorry to, trade Margot already. Bring up Wallner & Keirsey will be a much better club.

[yeahyabetcha]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

Wallner is a far superior fielder to Margot, sorry. Margot has been terrible out there and he doesn't have the physical talent to overcome his errant play anymore.

UZR/150 LF = -15.6 this year, backed up by -3 OAA in 165 innings. The trend for Margot on UZR/150 is nice and linear, and bad if you're arguing for his defensive prowess. OF overall from 2020-2024 = 9.5, 3.7, (0.2), (7.4), (12.1). 

Matt Wallner was league average last year in terms of UZR/150 in combined LF and RF as much as people hate on him, DRS is +2 for the year in the OF. OAA isn't so happy with him, but combining the metrics paints a picture of him being about average-ish. He's awkward looking in the field, and he boots a ball now and again, but he's deceptively fast. Fast enough to cover CF if he had the instincts for it, and his arm is a weapon.

Margot is likely the worst outfielder on the Twins right now.

I am not a big fan of defensive metrics, it is just my opinion, but I would rather see Margot in CF than Wallner and feel he is equal option to Martin or Castro 

[2wins87]

 

5 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

 If exit velocity & launch angle are the gauges to measure how lucky or how good a batter is, Then Arraez is the worst & luckiest hitter on the planet.

That's actually not true. Expected stats like xWOBA and xBA work as well for Arraez as anyone else. His actual BA and WOBA have generally been pretty close to expected throughout his career.

The reason he hits for average is that his launch angle is basically ideal: https://www.mlb.com/news/how-luis-arraez-is-an-elite-hitter-without-elite-exit-velocity

Having a low K rate also gets baked in.

 

[Parfigliano]

7 hours ago, Brandon said:

Where does Farmer sit on the list?  
 

one thing that helps Castro is his speed. I wonder how many extra hits and doubles he was able to squeak out because of his speed.

At this point Farmer's lucky if he hits a foul ball

[Parfigliano]

4 hours ago, yeahyabetcha said:

I know it is the cool thing to do to crap on Margot, but despite his shortcomings he is still the third best defensive outfielder on the roster.  And to think that some random minor leaguer can hit lefties better than he does is fools gold.  If used correctly, he provides value to a roster.

Third best D outfielder is a stretch.

[jimbo92107]

Depends what you mean by "unlucky," at least for that category. To me, unlucky means unable to hit for a reason a player isn't responsible for, which means injuries. 

The most unlucky Twins hitters on the team today are Byron Buxton (multiple injury seasons), Alex Kirilloff (bad wrist, bad back), Royce Lewis (multiple extended injuries), and I suppose Austin Martin, a high first rounder that had one bad stroke of luck after another, until this season, fingers crossed. 

Can't really use the injury = bad luck definition for pitchers, because simply throwing a baseball really hard a lot of times is inherently hazardous for elbows, shoulders, fingers, legs, etc. Even standing on the mound is dangerous, with 100+ mph baseballs bulleting right at your head. I am sooo glad I had zero talent as a pitcher as a kid...

[DJL44]

8 hours ago, Brandon said:

one thing that helps Castro is his speed. I wonder how many extra hits and doubles he was able to squeak out because of his speed.

That is one reason his career BABIP is so high.

[DocBauer]

I fully embrace the statistics as presented to a degree. I agree Larnach has been unlucky because I've seen hard hit ball after hard hit ball all season lining to someone, or settling in to a speeding OF glove when it looked like he had a double, etc. Where I have to disagree with these kinds of statistics is when they play themselves over a long period of time. For instance, while I don't have the data in front of me, Kepler's BABIP has been greatly discussed the past few seasons because other data said he SHOULD be ranking better, or having better "luck". But when a low number like that keeps happening year after year, it's a trend, and not poor luck. When Kepler's BABIP has risen, it's been because he changed his approach and began to sacrifice some contact for better overall power. Suddenly his overall production went up, including his BABIP.

So while I feel Larnach has been unlucky, and is continuing to improve, I might hold out just a little judgement until I see the numbers. And I'm not being a downer, I have a good feeling about him.

As to Margot, his defense has gone from awful, back to OK/good-ish, to borderline awful again. I believe he's lost a pair of balls just in the last week due to the lights. Doesn't mean I'm ready to give up on him yet, but he's been inconsistent defensively, to say the least. Offensively, I was ready to be done with him come June 1st. Instead, he went on a tear and for a month at least, was hitting as well as or better against LHP as he ever has. He's had some big games, and some big hits. He's even, lately, been better against RHP. Just a hot streak? Maybe. But you don't cut a player who's actually producing positive results even IF he stunk for the previous two months. You just don't.

Now, can he keep it up? Because you absolutely CAN cut a player who stunk, got hot, and then stinks again. So if he seriously regresses in July and going in to August, I can see him removed. He has the experience that Martin doesn't have. But as player types, they are very similar, and having both is a bit redundant. And considering how approximately 75% of the pitchers are RH, I'd love to see Wallner or Keirsey up and providing a LH bat. 

But I'm fine admitting that for now at least, the FO was smart to hold on to Margot and he did a great job in June. But we still have a half season to go, and moves can still be made down the line. But right NOW, I'm glad Margot was kept.

[Doctor Gast]

5 hours ago, 2wins87 said:

 

That's actually not true. Expected stats like xWOBA and xBA work as well for Arraez as anyone else. His actual BA and WOBA have generally been pretty close to expected throughout his career.

The reason he hits for average is that his launch angle is basically ideal: https://www.mlb.com/news/how-luis-arraez-is-an-elite-hitter-without-elite-exit-velocity

Having a low K rate also gets baked in.

 

The metrics that was mentioned & I used were only launch angle & exit velo. Of course, Arraez isn't the worst or luckiest hitter, he's the best but using only launch angle, he's lower than most & exit velo he's the lowest, he'd rank as the worst & luckiest, which again is an absolute lie. I used Arraez only to show how absurd using only launch angle & exit velo to rate hitters.

In this thread xWOBA, WOBA, xBA, BA & SO rate were not used so I didn't bring them into the reference,

[Brandon]

13 hours ago, Reptevia said:

We should hang onto a guy indefinitely despite his awful actual numbers and contributions, because his *expected* numbers suggest he’s “unlucky”?  Makes about as much sense. 

If he was still slumping, I would be on the DFA Margot bandwagon but he stepped up and is producing. Let’s ride his hot streak and see where he’s at before we go back to DFA.  He is close to career norms now.  

[ashbury]

43 minutes ago, Brandon said:

If he was still slumping, I would be on the DFA Margot bandwagon but he stepped up and is producing. Let’s ride his hot streak and see where he’s at before we go back to DFA.  He is close to career norms now.  

His hot streak seems to have taken a pause since the game of July 1.  In his 3 games since, he's back to the old Manny we know and love.  Small sample size but three games may be the start of a new streak.

[Doctor Wu]

20 hours ago, yeahyabetcha said:

Despite his shortcomings, he is still a better fielder than Wallner and much better at hitting lefties.  I prefer him as a bench piece for the playoffs over an unproven rookie like Keirsey 

You make a good point. A veteran like Margot may indeed be a valuable piece when it comes time for the playoffs. Despite his slow start earlier this season, I think we should hang on to him. I'm not that positive that the likes of Wallner or Larnach, despite their better power skills, are the types of players we will need come October. But hey, if one of those guys gets hot down the stretch I'll be eating my words.