Grading Recent Trade Deadlines for the Minnesota Twins

[Cody Christie]

The Twins have taken different approaches to recent trade deadlines, and reviewing the front office’s plans might help us understand the team’s 2024 deadline path.

Image courtesy of Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

Every baseball fan base wants their team to make a splash at the trade deadline by making moves viewed as going "all in" for a World Series run. Can the club add a front-line starting pitcher to anchor a rotation? Is there a way to acquire a dominant late-inning bullpen arm? Or can they find a potent bat to insert into the middle of the lineup? Unfortunately, only one team walks away a winner at the end of October, and baseball’s playoffs can be a bit of a crapshoot. So, what have Derek Falvey and Thad Levine done at recent trade deadlines when the team has been in contention?

2023 Trade Deadline: The Twins had a quiet trade deadline last season with a strategy to rely on internal players to fit the team’s needs. Minnesota’s lone move last year was to trade Jorge López for Dylan Floro in what was considered a change-of-scenery trade for both bullpen arms. Minnesota relied on the returns of Royce Lewis, Brock Stewart, and Chris Paddack to bolster multiple parts of the roster. Minnesota tested the waters on some more prominent trade deadline names, but the cost was too high, and the team decided to stand pat. 
Additions: Floro
Subtractions: López 
Grade: C. There were moves that could have better prepared the team for playoff success. 

2022 Trade Deadline: Minnesota Twins fans will have a tough time forgetting the 2022 trade deadline, but it was this front office being as aggressive as possible. On the day of the trade deadline, the Twins made four deals to bring in starting pitcher Tyler Mahle, relievers Jorge López and Michael Fulmer, and backup catcher Sandy León. It cost the Twins eight prospects, including some prospects who have already started to provide big-league value. It didn’t work out, with the Twins finishing six games below .500 and the Mahle and López deals aging poorly. 
Additions: Mahle, López, Fulmer, León
Subtractions: Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Spencer Steer, Steve Hajjar, Cade Povich, Yennier Cano, Juan Rojas, Juan Nunez, Sawyer Gipson-Long, Ian Hamilton
Grade: F. These moves didn’t help the Twins to win in 2022 and hurt the team’s long-term outlook. 

 

2020 Trade Deadline: The 2020 trade deadline was pushed back to the end of August because of the shortened season. Minnesota sat five games above .500 and in third place in the AL Central. During that season, the playoffs were expanded, so the team was still a lock to make the playoffs. Falvey and Levine decided against making any additions, which was warranted because of the strange nature of that season. 
Grade: N/A. Adding a new player who must travel and quarantine before joining the group seems like a mess. 

 

2019 Trade Deadline: The Bomba Squad was making waves prior to the trade deadline, so the front office wanted to supplement a strong offensive lineup. Sergio Romo was a perfect addition to the team as he helped bolster the bullpen. In 27 games, he posted a 3.18 ERA with a 0.93 WHIP and 10.7 K/9. The front office liked him so much that they re-signed him for the 2020 season. Sam Dyson was the complete opposite of Romo. He pitched poorly after the deal, with a 7.15 ERA in 11 appearances. It was later revealed that he had been dealing with a shoulder injury since earlier in the season. He was shut down in September and had off-season surgery. Eventually, MLB suspended him for allegedly abusing his girlfriend. 
Additions: Romo, Vallimont, Dyson
Subtractions: Lewin Diaz, Jaylin Davis, Perlander Berroa, Kai-Wei Tang
Grade: C. The Romo trade was an A, and the Dyson trade was an F. 

Overall, the Romo trade is the lone deal that worked out in favor of the club. Mahle and López were aggressive acquisitions because the front office believed in the roster and wanted to push their chips to the middle. Unfortunately, both players pitched poorly with the Twins and didn’t help the club make an extended playoff run. Other moves have been inconsequential. The trade deadline can push a contending team over the top, but the Twins’ front office grades poorly when making deadline trades. 

 

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Will the Twins payroll crunch force the front office to be creative at the trade deadline? Will they make a significant move? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

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[mickster]

I view the Mahle trade as being graded based on hindsight.   The injury muddles it, and if that wouldn't have happened - I believe this would have been a B+ or better.   Yes Steer and CES were part of it.  Steer is an average MLB player, and CES is just below average.     If they wouldn't have made the trade, then they would have been bashed for not being agressive as well.   MLB trades tend to be wins or losses.   Would we do the AJ to SF again.  YES.   Would we do the Araez for Pablo - YES.    But noone would do the Brunansky for Herr again...............

[old nurse]

Hindsight is such a wonderful thing. Mahle and Dyson. How could you know they were or going to be injured.?  

Lopez. Mediocre career now having a lights out year. F for thinking about trading for him. F for having Cano throw more sliders than he should have. I can’t fault them for trading him but they shouldn’t have included Povich

So what did they lose by trading? 2 designated hitters,, 2 6th starters, a reliever that didn’t fir the Twins way and suspects. How can it be failing when you did not lose much?

[Karbo]

You forgot 2021

[Brandon]

I would grade the Mahle trade much better.  He wasn’t injured when we got him.  He was pitching well when he pitched.  He did better than Montas who was traded to the Yankees.  In fact most of the deadline deals that year didn’t work out if I remember correctly.  I say Montas because I bet he was the other pitcher we were likely trying to get.  
on Dyson I would rate that trade as a non factor for either team.  No one got anything from that trade.  The López trade was a loser because of our failure to develop Cano and Povich should be a solid back if rotation pitcher.

[mikelink45]

This is not an exciting retrospective and I do not see the Mahle trade in the positive light others do.  Don't we do physicals?

[Guest]

2023 was worse than a "C."  They later dumped Floro and he's having a good year in Washington.  This proves Minnesota's FO wasn't the change-of-scenery Floro needed....

2022 was a colossal "F" by any standards.  The FO's fingers were burned so badly it's a wonder they (or anyone) would consider another deadline, fillers-for-prospects trade.

Caution in trades is even more warranted this year as it's almost universally acknowledged that this is a sellers market.

[TwinkieFan4life]

2 hours ago, old nurse said:

Hindsight is such a wonderful thing. Mahle and Dyson. How could you know they were or going to be injured.?  

Lopez. Mediocre career now having a lights out year. F for thinking about trading for him. F for having Cano throw more sliders than he should have. I can’t fault them for trading him but they shouldn’t have included Povich

So what did they lose by trading? 2 designated hitters,, 2 6th starters, a reliever that didn’t fir the Twins way and suspects. How can it be failing when you did not lose much?i

If my memory is correct, both were coming off arm issues during the seasons they were traded.  Twins seem to like this type of discount.

[Franchise Adams]

2 hours ago, Karbo said:

You forgot 2021

And that was the Nelson Cruz for Joe Ryan year, which was a crazy good trade.

[old nurse]

6 minutes ago, TwinkieFan4life said:

If my memory is correct, both were coming off arm issues during the seasons they were traded.  Twins seem to like this type of discount.

Mahle pitched in 33 games the year before he was traded, Dyson 74 the year before he was traded. About the last player to not have issues was Cal Ripken 

[old nurse]

2 hours ago, Karbo said:

You forgot 2021

Of course he did. There were 3 out of four good trades. Robles for a prospect now in Indy baseball was the only trade that was about equall. For a worn out Happ they got a couple games out of Grant and a prospect they used in part t get a season of Taylor. Everybody should remember the other 2 trades. 

[mnfireman]

3 hours ago, Karbo said:

You forgot 2021

I think he was only including seasons the team was contending for a play-off spot at the deadline. 

2021 was a good deadline year because that year brought back Ryan, SWR and Martin who are contributing to our current play-off run.

[chpettit19]

Are we grading process or results? Process was ok (not great, not horrid) for these deadlines. Results were a mixed bag, with the Mahle and Lopez deals being so horrendous they will be brought up in Falvine lore forever. 

[bean5302]

Mahle had been on the IL for a shoulder strain for only 3 weeks and the Reds rushed him back into action because they wanted to move his contract. Shoulder strains generally take more than 3 weeks to heal up, but the Twins took the gamble without a thorough physical and it bit them hard. 

Dyson is a different story because he wasn't on the IL, but he said he was battling through pain in the weeks leading up to the trade.

From my understanding, big physicals aren't common before the deadline. Probably because there isn't any time to perform them, but Mahle was clearly a scenario where the Twins were giving up a lot for a guy who was back curiously fast from what is normally a longer stint.

In regard to the results of Falvey's trades, they've been fine overall. Historically, the team has not gone after huge acquisitions at the deadline. Mahle probably ranks as the biggest deadline improvement attempt in team history.

[h2oface]

On 7/1/2024 at 11:15 AM, Brandon said:

I would grade the Mahle trade much better.  He wasn’t injured when we got him.  He was pitching well when he pitched.  He did better than Montas who was traded to the Yankees.  In fact most of the deadline deals that year didn’t work out if I remember correctly.  I say Montas because I bet he was the other pitcher we were likely trying to get.  
on Dyson I would rate that trade as a non factor for either team.  No one got anything from that trade.  The López trade was a loser because of our failure to develop Cano and Povich should be a solid back if rotation pitcher.

I defer to @bean5302 just previous. He basically was injured, and they FO knew it and decided it wasn't a deal killer and made the overpay. Mahle had made a couple of starts after he came off the IL, and was a very questionable health risk. Absolutely. Pitching Well? I guess I don't consider a 4.40 ERA in 104 innings with Cincy "well". Maybe I have higher bars for "pitching well". Process? Whatever. Just because we needed better pitchers I don't consider trading for a blatant question mark a smart process. I hated the trade then, and of course, worse now. I didn't like him at all, anyway, especially because his wildness broke Buxton's hand in June of 2021 when we came back from a hip injury and we were needing him.  https://apnews.com/article/minnesota-twins-baseball-mlb-sports-96bf7376a8011bf4d77fbee9dd681a5f

Lopez wasn't injured, but why would the Orioles, who knew him and all the intangibles he brought, trade him when they were in the playoff race? It didn't make a lick of sense. Process? Lopez's track record of success was horrible before he went to the pen, and was a flash in the pan for just a few months, and the FO bet he was converted for good, and we all know how that turned out. All Lopez did was lose games for us, and he is still a liability wherever he has been. And we gave up a 2023 All-Star reliever and a starter that looks to be better than Paddack, and he can play. (Nobody thought they would be that good? The players did, and the FO claims to know how to pick them.) Horrible trades, and not just looking back. Homers wanted it to be a good trade. But it never was. Not then. Not looking back.

F-.

[LewFordLives]

17 hours ago, Minderbinder said:

 

Caution in trades is even more warranted this year as it's almost universally acknowledged that this is a sellers market.

Agree 100 percent. A lot of teams will be looking for help and the Twins system isn't as deep as it once was.

[old nurse]

15 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Are we grading process or results? Process was ok (not great, not horrid) for these deadlines. Results were a mixed bag, with the Mahle and Lopez deals being so horrendous they will be brought up in Falvine lore forever. 

The process did not evaluate what Baltimore did to make a mediocre pitcher into an effective closer. Lopez reverted back to mediocrity, where he has remained.  He is one of the reasons I wouldn’t trade for the older player having a career year without a real deep dive. 

[LambchoP]

I think it should be common practice to perform thorough physicals with any new acquisition. Would be great if the Twins could grab a Frontline starter for the playoff push, but this year has too many teams not selling so the prices will be way too high. I do hope we grab some bullpen help at least. Relievers are usually a lot cheaper because of their volatility. Maybe we can get a decent arm with another year or two of control. Our lineup is fine, if we can beef up our pitching staff even a little, I'll call it a win:)

[Trov]

18 hours ago, TwinkieFan4life said:

If my memory is correct, both were coming off arm issues during the seasons they were traded.  Twins seem to like this type of discount.

Dyson there was rumblings that SF hid arm issues, or at minimum Dyson was hiding it from team.  Mahle had pitched a full season year prior and only missed a couple of starts in the year we traded for him.  He had history early in career, and had a IL stint a couple weeks prior to trade but to expect missing rest of that season and basically the whole next was not something teams were expecting. 

[David Maro]

This FO gets an F when it comes to trading for pitchers.More often then not the pitcher they get ends up on the IL with shoulder or arm issues.We now also have Topa who is on the IL all season with a bad knee.

[jorgenswest]

You rely the medicals from the trading team. Players aren’t submitting to physicals with every trade rumor. I would do the Mahle trade again when contending. If you can get a playoff quality starter and the biggest pieces you give up are two bats that can’t play average defense anywhere you do it every time.

[bean5302]

3 hours ago, old nurse said:

The process did not evaluate what Baltimore did to make a mediocre pitcher into an effective closer. Lopez reverted back to mediocrity, where he has remained.  He is one of the reasons I wouldn’t trade for the older player having a career year without a real deep dive. 

I think you're giving Lopez a bit too much credit here. Mediocrity doesn't get you DFA'd like 17 times, haha.

[bean5302]

15 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

You rely the medicals from the trading team. Players aren’t submitting to physicals with every trade rumor. I would do the Mahle trade again when contending. If you can get a playoff quality starter and the biggest pieces you give up are two bats that can’t play average defense anywhere you do it every time.

Steer was considered a solid enough infielder, not a DH, and he's been acceptable in the infield by UZR/150. Cincinatti has played him large in the outfield, where he hasn't played well. CES was bat only, but he looked pretty solid last year. Out this year with wrist surgery. That's two every day 2 WAR regular players with 6 years of team control each. The Twins also kicked one of their pitching prospects Cincinnati's way in the deal with Steve Hajjar, who's been a bust. The Twins paid a pretty big price for a guy who they were hoping would be good with a change of scenery to someplace outside the homer fueled Great American Ballpark.

I would have wanted Mahle to undergo a physical before agreeing because of the recent IL stint so the deal probably wouldn't have happened. I agree with the desire to acquire a significant rotation upgrade when needed prior to a playoff run, but I favor aiming higher than mid-back rotation arms. I'll give up more for something which cannot be easily replaced.

[Brandon]

5 hours ago, h2oface said:

I defer to @bean5302 just previous. He basically was injured, and they FO knew it and decided it wasn't a deal killer and made the overpay. Mahle had made a couple of starts after he came off the IL, and was a very questionable health risk. Absolutely. Pitching Well? I guess I don't consider a 4.40 ERA in 104 innings with Cincy "well". Maybe I have higher bars for "pitching well". Process? Whatever. Just because we needed better pitchers I don't consider trading for a blatant question mark a smart process. I hated the trade then, and of course, worse now. I didn't like him at all, anyway, especially because his wildness broke Buxton's hand in June of 2021 when we came back from a hip injury and we were needing him.  https://apnews.com/article/minnesota-twins-baseball-mlb-sports-96bf7376a8011bf4d77fbee9dd681a5f

Lopez wasn't injured, but why would the Orioles, who knew him and all the intangibles he brought, trade him when they were in the playoff race? It didn't make a lick of sense. Process? Lopez's track record of success was horrible before he went to the pen, and was a flash in the pan for just a few months, and the FO bet he was converted for good, and we all know how that turned out. All Lopez did was lose games for us, and he is still a liability wherever he has been. Horrible trades, and not just looking back. Homers wanted it to be a good trade. But it never was. Not then. Not looking back.

F-.

I didn’t like the López trade from the beginning but I had misplaced hope.  
 

all I’m saying is Mahle still did better than others traded at the deadline.  Montas was worse and probably who we would have traded for if not for Mahle.  I didn’t like trading Steer in the deal either.  But I see 3 different ways to grade this trade.  1.  How good was the deal at the time of the trade.  2.  How was this trade compared to other deadline deals? 3.  How did the players ultimately perform after being traded?  On 1.  It’s a B for me.  2. Is a C and 3. Is a D.  So I’m going to agree with your stance on the deal.  I think if you hated this deal you are inclined to be most likely grading on 3.  

[jorgenswest]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

Steer was considered a solid enough infielder, not a DH, and he's been acceptable in the infield by UZR/150. 

His innings are very limited at 2B and it is a -4.4. He has more innings at 3B and it is a -9.6. In the big picture I see 15 different career numbers across 5 positions (UZR, DRS, OOA).  His only positive number with a career UZR of 0.3 is at 1B where he also has -8 OOA.

I don’t want to argue the bar for acceptable or derail this thread by debating defensive metrics. Assuming Steer has shown to be an acceptable 1B or even 3B if you prefer,  I would do a similar trade this deadline.

[Doctor Wu]

On 7/2/2024 at 12:23 AM, old nurse said:

Hindsight is such a wonderful thing. Mahle and Dyson. How could you know they were or going to be injured.?  

Lopez. Mediocre career now having a lights out year. F for thinking about trading for him. F for having Cano throw more sliders than he should have. I can’t fault them for trading him but they shouldn’t have included Povich

So what did they lose by trading? 2 designated hitters,, 2 6th starters, a reliever that didn’t fir the Twins way and suspects. How can it be failing when you did not lose much?

Wasn't Povich the main piece in that trade? I think Cano was more of the throw-in, and yet he ended up having an All-Star season afterwards.

[Doctor Wu]

19 hours ago, bean5302 said:

I think you're giving Lopez a bit too much credit here. Mediocrity doesn't get you DFA'd like 17 times, haha.

That recent Lopez meltdown reminded me (almost) of the time in the 1970s when Pedro Borbon (then with the Reds) went ballistic, took the cap from an opposing player, and promptly took a bite out of it. Ah, they don't make players like that anymore!

[Five minute major]

The 2022 trade deadline was lower than a F.  Especially in hindsight!  There were questions about Mahle's health and talent prior to the trade itself.    Steer is AN ABOVE AVERAGE player and CES is going to be.   The Povich and Cano trade is looking worse.   We got literally nothing in return.   I still think these moves are termination worry.   But this franchise and many of its fans are OK with mediocrity.

 

[old nurse]

2 hours ago, Doctor Wu said:

Wasn't Povich the main piece in that trade? I think Cano was more of the throw-in, and yet he ended up having an All-Star season afterwards.

Cano was probably a throw in as he did not do well in his time on the big league club. He appears not to use his slider as much and has a better outcome. Shame on the Twins for not recognizing that. Povich was likely the main piece in the trade. A potential major league starter for a reliever is not a good trade unless you think they are not going to make it as a mlb starter. There are things they can be wrong about. Future starters is not.  One of them. 

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

22 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Steer was considered a solid enough infielder, not a DH, and he's been acceptable in the infield by UZR/150. Cincinatti has played him large in the outfield, where he hasn't played well. CES was bat only, but he looked pretty solid last year. Out this year with wrist surgery. That's two every day 2 WAR regular players with 6 years of team control each.

Steer has been one of the worst defenders in all of baseball since he debuted. UZR/150 is not worth using (and even that says he's been bad/awful everywhere but 1B and in 8 innings of 2B this season).

Both DRS and OAA have him far below average everywhere he's played - particularly so at 3B.

It's a little early to call them both "everyday 2 WAR players" - particularly CES who has shown nothing at the MLB level.