Make It Official! Twins 5, Mariners 3: Larnach Saves the Day As Twins Overcome Misplays

[DocBauer]

2 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

I'd like you to know Doc that I think highly of you. You like to write all-inclusive statements & I whole heartly agree with at least 90% of what you write but sometimes you throw something at the end that I strongly disagree with & I find it hard to give you a thumbs up. I'd like to give you many more thumbs up than I do to let you know that I respect everything that you say. Even though we don't agree 100%

Hey, I generally agree with a lot of your comments and perspectives as well.

THANK YOU for your kind words. HONESTLY appreciated. 

I DO try to look at the big picture of everything. 

But it's 100% OK to "like" and still disagree with me and offer up a different opinion. 

I BOW to anyone who offers praise. :)

[mnfireman]

Actually got to watch the game today...loved Ryan challenging the batters when behind with runners on base. Wish he would have won the argument with Baldelli to stay in the game....Thielbar, Okert and Sands almost cost the team the game. If the option is worse than current choice, gotta stay with the current choice. Team (Larnach) saved Rocco's ass today...

[Schmoeman5]

53 minutes ago, mnfireman said:

Actually got to watch the game today...loved Ryan challenging the batters when behind with runners on base. Wish he would have won the argument with Baldelli to stay in the game....Thielbar, Okert and Sands almost cost the team the game. If the option is worse than current choice, gotta stay with the current choice. Team (Larnach) saved Rocco's ass today...

Team (Larnach) saved Rocco. Dang!

[mickster]

10 hours ago, DocBauer said:

Unfortunately, I wasn't able to watch the game at all due to work today. (Usually get to see at least part of the games). We had a great road trip, won all 3 series, and gained ground on Cleveland. So I DON'T want to sound like I'm being a downer, and you simply can't and won't win every game...but...it does appear we just gave away a couple games on the road trip and that just shouldn't happen as much as it seemed to this trip.

Ryan is a hell of a pitcher, smart, and a good athlete. So in the world did he make so many fielding mistakes not in the game, but in ONE INNING? I'm sure it was just a blip, but I agree some general fielding practice for reminder sake might be in order.

Sands certainly didn't lose the game for us, and he's been pretty solid most of the year, but I am confused that he was in the game instead of Staumont in the 7th. Staumont didn't pitch Saturday, Monday is an off day, and he's been largely very good. So why Sands? 

Can we finally just accept that Larnach has "figured it out" after some injuries and adjustments. He's having a very solid season. But he might also be the unluckiest Twins hitter. Even when he's "slumped" he's been hitting the ball very hard. A couple days ago...Arizona maybe?...he went hitless and every batted ball was over 100mph. He's got a .268 BABIP on the season which is CRAZY for how hard he hits the ball. Any sort of progression to the norm and he's poised for a big second half!

I've said before and will say again, if 1 of Larnach, Kirilloff, and Wallner "gets it figured out" it's a win. Wallner is always going to K around 30%, but with decent BB numbers and tremendous power. We can nit pick some of his numbers at AAA right now, but he's basically been destroying AAA right now. If we get 2 of those LH OF "figuring it out" we are SET with dangerous production and depth. Now that Kirilloff's wrist is no longer an issue, IF he can get past his sore back and FINALLY avoid injuries and follow the Larnach path of "figuring it out" the Twins will actually have a WEALTH of quality/dangerous LF OF/1B bats that I dare to dream of. And that's not even including the eventual debut of Rodriguez and the possibly undervalued Keirsey looking for a shot.

I digress and apologize. But if even ONE of Wallner and AK can establish themselves along with Larnach's development....WOW! All three might be a dream, but it's a dream I'd like to see happen.

Lastly, I do think the DH rule has to be re-examined in today's game. Especially now that is ML wide. I'm OK with losing the DH if you PH...though that also should be looked at...but if an injury happens to a DH, I don't believe the team should lose the DH for the game. It just feels unfair and not right in today's game.

They did alter the DH for Shoehi to DH/P so he stays in the lineup when he is removed from the mound...........why not 

[Doctor Wu]

11 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

That crazy Garver HBP by Ryan that created a hole in the DH spot & helped the Twins but IMO it's unfair & should be changed. SEA's uniforms are really ugly, that plain, cream color w/o names on the back, it was hard to look at. When players dirtied their uniforms it actually looked like they dirtied their uniforms, if you know what I mean.

That was a VERY peculiar position change after the HBP. When was the last time a pitcher had to bat in this league?

[jmlease1]

Seattle hasn't lost a home series in like 2 months, so this is a really nice win. Good road trip too; can't complaint about going 6-3 on the road and winning all three series. Sure, would have been nice to have grabbed one of those 1-run losses, but if you're winning your road series then you're good shape as a team.

Larnach is having a solid season. He's still got some things to work on, and he's probably been a bit unlucky, but he's battling and not getting overwhelmed. He was super hot out the gate when he got his chance, slumped when the league reacted to him, but he seems to be making the adjustments right now to get back on track. Saw him laying off pitches this road trip that were K's last season which is a good sign.

Good to see Ryan do ok with runners on base. As long as he's not giving up the dinger when ducks are on the pond, I feel good about him. 

Keep winning series, boys. 

[Whitey333]

Nice win Twins.  They pulled it out even with another strange lineup and managerial decisions by the great Rocco.  Go Twins! 

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

This is a good baseball team. If they want to take that next step, they need to be better around the margins. The three L's on this road trip were the result of either questionable bullpen usage, pinch hitting moves that weren't made, inability to move runners over, and just brain-dead plays in the field. It's July 1st so perhaps this is just what this team is - talented but not sharp enough. 

[JD-TWINS]

8 hours ago, DocBauer said:

The problem is they are stuck between NOW and 2025.

Kepler will be gone next year. Larnach is starting to figure it out, IMO. Wallner is looking like the prospect he was in 2023 just begging to come up and make a difference again and potentially be a fixture.  And we're still not sure about Kirilloff. But you also mentioned Margot. The problem there is, the Twins are a contending team and Margot has suddenly been the player they thought they were acquiring. In fact, he's been even better through June. 

So do you hold on to Margot instead of a LH younger OF for now? Are Margot and Martin redundant? Do you send Martin back to AAA even though he might not deserve it? 

How amazing would it be for Lee...or Julien when he forces the issue...to play 2B and let Castro do what he does best, which is be a great player ALL OVER?

But that means Farmer is gone, or Martin gets sent down. 

The offense is actually one of the best in MLB since about May 1st. One of the best against LHP which we haven't seen since 2019. And still good against RHP. But it feels like they could really use another LH bat for the remainder of the season.

Who???

I know this sounds crazy as we're still trailing Cleveland and there is this sort of "whoh is me and we aren't good enough" attitude after the horrible start to the season. But if you take a step back and realize how good the offense has been the past couple of months you'd realize the Twins are actually in a bit of a roster crunch. 

I would have let Margot go a month ago and just let Martin get ML time. But Margot has suddenly been good. Farmer hasn't been anything close to good, but he's been much better the past 30 days. So do you just jetison him now for Lee? Maybe you do. Not sure the FO feels that way.

CRAZY as it sounds, the offense is clicking and there is ACTUALLY a roster crunch in regard to NOW, and who might be part of 2025 and beyond.

That's a good thing. 

A log jam of options is obviously better than the flip side, agreed!

I echo a lot of your thoughts……can’t move off Margot as he’s actually been playing above expectations for more than a month, regardless of the tone here at TD occasionally.

Today, IMO, the next move is Lee up and Martin gets displaced (though undeserving). No hurry for this as things are going pretty well. They have certainly given Farmer opportunities …….can’t be easy to get right when playing sporadically but that’s pro sports! If he’s still at .190-.200 late July something serious needs to & probably happens then.

I do think Lee gets a shot before Wallner since they essentially know what to expect on the high end from Wallner.

It’s probably not a bad idea to get Lee up to play 2-3 weeks before releasing Farmer at some point.

Starting Martin at 2B yesterday may signal they are going to respect his performance and keep him up - however, Farmer replaced him late for defense……..?

[wabene]

They must not have liked the Okert vs Polo matchup. Polo has always been better in the left handed box, but yet they brought in Sands.

[David Maro]

Garver was the catcher not the DH.This is why Rocco should think twice about having Jeffers DH.As for miscus in the infield,this is what happens when you change 3 of 4 infield players.One other thing,3rd base is becoming a problem because of throws to first.Both Miranda and Lewis seem to struggle to make good throws and Santana has to work to make plays more often then not.

[stringer bell]

1 hour ago, wabene said:

They must not have liked the Okert vs Polo matchup. Polo has always been better in the left handed box, but yet they brought in Sands.

I don’t like Okert matching up against any right handed hitter. He’s a LOOGy in the three-hitter minimum era. 

[LambchoP]

The offense really has been clicking, but finally dumping Farmer and calling up Brooks Lee to play second base everyday would help even more. Theilbar also is done, and we can't trust Okert or Funderburk in any close games. We have to go out and get a leverage lefty reliever at the deadline. If we can get that I think our bullpen will be fine especially if we get Stewart and Topa back soon. Varland would also boost the relief corps. Vasquez remains an automatic out and should just bunt Everytime he hits. He's basically on the roster just to keep Jeffers healthy. I think Kepler is expendable at the deadline if we can get a decent reliever in return. Wallner or Keirsey could replace him and produce just as much of not more. Keirsey with a better average and lots of stolen bases, plus can play all three outfield positions. Wallner can crush home runs in bunches, if he doesn't strike out four times per game.

[Linus]

I am skeptical the Twins will call up Lee to play second when he has only played there a couple of times. In fact I think he should be playing third a lot so next year he can play third and Royce can play second. 

[Schmoeman5]

16 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

 Martin showed a lot of range as a 2Bman, he fielded a GB that Santana couldn't come up with & he didn't boot the ball, he back-handed a difficult ball (that even the best sometime misses) & didn't come up with it. It was not charged as an error, So why do you want to say it was booted? In Vazquez's defense he was 0 for 3 in CS, against speedy SEA players & the pitches were low & outside, I think at least one was in the dirt.

Martin did BOOT that ball and it WAS an error. Even if it wasn't scored one. He made a nice play on the grounder where Ryan didn't cover 1st. And Vasquez doesn't get a pass. 2 poor games he's caught in a row. If it were Jeffers, I doubt you'd defend his play

[mrcharlie]

I'm not use to the Twins lacking focus in the field, but these last two games have me wondering.  Friday they made some serious mental errors. The most glaring was Moranda's play attempt to tag the base runner and make a throw to 1st.  Then to watch Vasquez was not a pretty sight either.

Then yesterday the continued mental errors in the fifth inning were nerve racking.  I didn't watch but listening was enough to give me fits.

Twins need to improve their fielding to support the pitcher...only giving the opponents three outs.

[bean5302]

Another series 

58 minutes ago, Schmoeman5 said:

Martin did BOOT that ball and it WAS an error. Even if it wasn't scored one. He made a nice play on the grounder where Ryan didn't cover 1st. And Vasquez doesn't get a pass. 2 poor games he's caught in a row. If it were Jeffers, I doubt you'd defend his play

He didn't boot the ball. I don't even have an idea where you're coming from on this? He slid because it was critical to stop the ball from getting to the outfield and the play was at the very edge of his range. Santana screwed that play. Just like the gold glove defensive hero didn't catch/stop a ball from Miranda that led to a loss the other day.

If Santana doesn't lay there on the ground and gets up to try to cover first, that's still an out. If he doesn't distract the **** out of Martin telling him to try and make a risky throw/play at 2B, Martin may have even been able to beat the runner to 1B. Martin wisely held onto that ball rather than trying to force a play he didn't feel comfortable with.

[Schmoeman5]

11 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Another series 

He didn't boot the ball. I don't even have an idea where you're coming from on this? He slid because it was critical to stop the ball from getting to the outfield and the play was at the very edge of his range. Santana screwed that play. Just like the gold glove defensive hero didn't catch/stop a ball from Miranda that led to a loss the other day.

If Santana doesn't lay there on the ground and gets up to try to cover first, that's still an out. If he doesn't distract the **** out of Martin telling him to try and make a risky throw/play at 2B, Martin may have even been able to beat the runner to 1B. Martin wisely held onto that ball rather than trying to force a play he didn't feel comfortable with.

I'm talking about the ball from the 1st inning.  Which was a routine grounder that he booted. You're talking about the diving stop which I acknowledged as a nice play. Read before you respond 

[bean5302]

Another series win against another (over .500) team. Despite all the narrative being spread for a while now that the team can only beat up on bottom feeders, the Twins have won or tied like 7 series' against playoff caliber teams this year.

Trevor Larnach hasn't been great for a good portion of the season at this point. He had an 11 game scorching hot streak from 4/22-5/5, but outside that, he's been solidly below average when it comes to production. The rolling xwOBA suggests he's probably been unlucky, but things like batted ball data, exit velocity and barrels say he's been league average-ish at best. He seems kinda like the same guy he was, just more aggressive at the plate trying to generate contact rather than taking walks or striking out. Don't get me wrong, I love what he did to win the game yesterday, but he's a 1.5 WAR full season guy. Good enough to start on a team who really needs a corner outfielder, but not ideal for a playoff caliber team. Pay special note to how his OBP is extremely consistent through the same sizes. .260-.270 OBP just isn't going to play at a high level in MLB.
Last 10 = 38 PA, .243/.263/.514 OPS .777 wRC+ 115
Last 20 = 68 PA, .235/.264/.397 OPS .661 wRC+ 84
11-30 = 71 PA, .203/.268/.359 OPS 627 wRC+ 78
Last 30 = 101 PA, .218/.266/.416 OPS .682 wRC+ 91
11-40 = 98 PA, .214/.271/.347 OPS .618 wRC+ 77
21-40 = 73 PA .209/.274/.388 OPS .662 wRC+ 89
Last 40 = 145 PA, .222/.269.393 OPS .662 wRC+ 87

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I like Kirilloff and love the idea of a guy like Wallner, with a strong arm and good eye who can hit the ball 500 miles, but I’m pretty happy with the lineups we are running out there right now. Guys are not striking out and are putting the ball in play often with hard contact. I think bringing Wallner or Julien back right now would be potential needle scratch and break the momentum. Let them continue to “wait in the wings” 

I had more to say about this last night and started longer post on Nicks thread, but didn’t get back to it. I’m not ready to call the Twins offense elite like the Yankees, or on par with Houston or Baltimore, but right now, they are certainly better than average, better than better than average. 

[mnfireman]

3 hours ago, David Maro said:

One other thing,3rd base is becoming a problem because of throws to first.Both Miranda and Lewis seem to struggle to make good throws and Santana has to work to make plays more often then not.

Agreed. Twins 3B have made 8 throwing errors; Lewis 4, Miranda 3 and Castro 1. Julien at 2B and Castro at SS are the only other IF to have throwing errors, with 1 each. 

Twins pitchers have made 4 throwing errors and Twins catchers have 5, but I did not look up how/where those occurred. 

[Shaitan]

18 hours ago, DocBauer said:

Sorry my friend, we hardly ever disagree on things, but I'm going to have to argue with you on this one point.

I'm a little out of my element here, but I believe college has had the DH in affect for some time now. And I honestly can't recall about MILB, but I believe the DH has been in affect for some time as well, even for NL clubs. And now, the DH is in full affect for all ML teams. It's been established as a lineup position. I can appreciate an "old school" idea that the DH is a "substitute" for the pitcher having to bat. And while I have questions going forward in MLB as to whether or not the DH should be considered a POSITION where you can substitute or not...different arguement for a different day...I do believe if a DH is removed due to injury, said team should be allowed to substitute. I mean, considering roster constraintsB, we're probably talking the last man on the bench kind of substitution, but we're still talking about an injury sub. 

POTENTIALLY, that might even weaken a team all the more from a bench move later in the game! But IMO, you should be able to replace an injured player at any point.

But they COULD replace Garver. They could have put any other position players at C.

Would it have been ugly? Yes.

But if a SS is injured and you have no backup SS, you still need to put a body there. Same principle here. SEA took the more practical choice and moved their DH to C, obviously.