“Phenomenal”: Simeon Woods Richardson’s Upgraded Pitch Mix Has Saved the Twins’ Rotation

[Cody Christie]

The Twins' starting rotation has failed to live up to preseason projections. However, Simeon Woods Richardson’s upgraded pitch mix has made up for a few disappointing developments.

Image courtesy of Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Simeon Woods Richardson finished the 2023 campaign at a low point. He pitched most of the season at Triple-A, posting a 4.91 ERA with a 1.50 WHIP and 19.3% strikeout rate. His mechanics were out of whack, to the point where his fastball struggled to crack 90 mph. Woods Richardson saw his prospect stock drop significantly, and something needed to change to get his career back on track. Otherwise, he would never be a usable pitcher at the big-league level.

In the offseason, Minnesota's coaches collaborated with Woods Richardson to tweak his delivery, including a subtle adjustment to lower his arm slot.

"It was from both parties," Woods Richardson told Twins Daily's John Bonnes at spring training. "I wanted to change for the better, and why not? And they said, 'OK, let's sit down. Let's talk about this.' And we came up with a couple of things, working on mechanical stuff. Let's see if we can drop the slot a little bit and see where it goes."

This seemingly minor tweak brought him closer to where he was when he joined the Twins organization, and it's a more natural and athletic position for the pitcher. So, how has that switch helped his pitch mix through his first 10 starts?

His four-seam fastball averages 93.1 mph this season, up nearly three miles per hour compared to his big-league starts last season. In his last appearance, Woods Richardson topped 97 mph for the first time in his career, and his average spin rate has increased from 2,109 in 2023 to 2,211 this season. Opponents have posted a .306 SLG versus his fastball, with a 19.3 Whiff% and a 16.5 Put Away%. His fastball will continue to be a weapon, given his newfound velocity and lower arm slot.

His fastball isn’t the only pitch that has changed for Woods Richardson in 2024, though, and many of his other pitches are getting better results because of his velocity increase. His slider jumped from 83.1 mph last season to 86.7 mph in 2024, with a 23.6 Whiff%. Woods Richardson is using his slider more regularly this season (up 16.2% from 2023), and he’s held batters to a .202 xBA and a .253 xSLG. His changeup remains a work in progress, but having some horizontal separation between the fastball and his two breaking balls has made a world of difference.

Here's how his pitches moved in 2023, including the extraordinary amount of cut on his fastball.

Here's the 2024 data, with the switch from an overhand to a high three-quarters slot effecting a different movement relationship between his offerings, in addition to the increased effectiveness stemming from throwing harder.

No matter the pitch, he’s seeing remarkable improvement compared to last season, and continues to put zeros on the scoreboard. Woods Richardson’s improved performance is catching the eye of the team’s coaches. Twins manager Rocco Baldelli is running out of adjectives, because he has called him phenomenal after multiple starts.

“Sim was phenomenal,” Baldelli told reporters after his young righty’s most recent start. “I thought he was on top of his game. He went out there and just put up zero after zero. And he makes you want to keep him out there. Even later in the game, his stuff held really well. That’s a winning start. That’s a start you want to get every time.”

It’s hard to imagine where the Twins’ rotation would be without Woods Richardson. Pablo López hasn’t pitched like the ace he was expected to be, with a 5.45 ERA and -0.2 WAR. Bailey Ober and Chris Paddack have provided mixed results, varying from outstanding to nearly unplayable. Louie Varland pitched five shutout innings in a spot start against the Rockies this week, but was terrible to begin the year; the team was forced to demote him to Triple-A. 

If Woods Richardson struggled, the Twins likely would have to turn a rotation spot over to a veteran Triple-A pitcher or rush a prospect like David Festa to the big leagues. Not everything has gone right for the Twins this season, but Woods Richardson’s emergence has saved the team in the first half.

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What stands out about Woods Richardson’s upgraded pitch mix? What is his ceiling? Leave a comment and start the discussion.

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[Doctor Wu]

Very good article and analysis. I had been wondering why Woods-Richardson has been so much more effective this season with the Twins. Reading about the adjustments he made in this article does a lot to explain his success. Let's all hope this this is a sustained success and he can become a vital cog in the rotation. 

[miracleb]

The Dr has it right.  He is even more effective with the Twins than with the Saints this year!  As a typical Twin's fan, I am worried the "wheels will fall off......"

[Otaknam]

Agree on the analysis of SWR and his improvement. He is still pretty young and this team needs starters to emerge. Since they don't have a number one starter they have to depend on depth in the rotation, especially since they let Sonny Gray walk.

[FlyingFinn]

I would say the starting rotation has been about what I expected overall. Lopez, Varland and Ober worse than expected. Ryan, Paddack, SWR, and overall starters health better than expected. 

[CRF]

Saving the rotation is a bit strong, but there's no doubt he's pitched well since he's been back up here. We'll see if that continues...I hope so. 

[The Mad King]

It's nice to finally reap the rewards of the Berrios trade

[Doctor Wu]

13 minutes ago, CRF said:

Saving the rotation is a bit strong, but there's no doubt he's pitched well since he's been back up here. We'll see if that continues...I hope so. 

Yeah, I think the idea that he has "saved" the rotation is a bit much, but at least he has made very positive contributions to the rotation since he was called up. We all hope it continues. Having him become a force in the rotation would be fun. 

[Trov]

I think people forget SWR ended last season doing well in AAA.  His first half was terrible, mostly from his BABIP allowed was very high.  His walk rate was about the same his strike out rate was about the same, but he gave up many less hits.  I am not discounting his change in pitching, but the article starts out saying his 2023 campaign ended on low note, but really it started on low note and ended not too bad.  The second half he put up ERA of around slightly over 3.00, a whip around 1.2. 

Please stop acting like he was a train wreck all year.  If you take away his first half numbers he would have still been considered a top prospect and people would not be shocked at what he is doing.   

[MABB1959]

Yay for coaches that we are so typically complaining about!

[DJL44]

Good article that shows the Twins coaching staff knows a little bit about baseball.

Woods Richardson has been fantastic, as good as almost any free agent pitcher they could have signed. If he keeps producing like this he's going to get votes for Rookie of the Year.

[LambchoP]

Hopefully he can adjust along with the rest of the league and have continued success. I think the Twins need another quality starter with control for our rotation, and a high leverage lefty to replace Theilbar. If we can get that at the deadline we might make September interesting:)

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

1 hour ago, miracleb said:

The Dr has it right.  He is even more effective with the Twins than with the Saints this year!  As a typical Twin's fan, I am worried the "wheels will fall off......"

As long as the velocity stays up,  which it is actually increasing,  he will continue to have good success.  He was billed as a potential top of the rotation pitcher (a #1 or #2),  that was if his velocity increased due to excellent command and very good secondary pitches.  I think he has focused a ton on control and quality of the secondary's with the decreased velocity, so now with nearly 3-4 more mph,  everything is coming so much easier.   I have a lot of confidence he will be able to maintain and be solid 2-4 pitcher for the Twins.  

[Doctor Gast]

The 1st thing I notice about a player is character. SWR interview with Seth, I was impressed with SWR's character after listening to him. Driven to become the best, character that gets a player past any drawbacks. Many fans have been down on Lewis, Martin & SWR during their MiLB stints crying out to trade them. But I haven't lost faith in them because of their character. 

Many are still are waiting SWR to fall any day. But he's constantly improving his pitches released from that arm slot so it's hard to really get a good read. Along with his command of his pitches, I don't expect any regression anytime soon. Even though he doesn't have that wipeout pitch.

[BH67]

Regression to the mean can be very good if a higher mean is attainable. It appears that SWR is attaining one, and I'm optimistic that the mean hasn't fallen (yet) for anyone else in the rotation.

Or it's an amazing coincidence. Lots of folks here tell me that the Twins are not good with player development.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

24 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

The 1st thing I notice about a player is character. SWR interview with Seth, I was impressed with SWR's character after listening to him. Driven to become the best, character that gets a player past any drawbacks. Many fans have been down on Lewis, Martin & SWR during their MiLB stints crying out to trade them. But I haven't lost faith in them because of their character. 

Many are still are waiting SWR to fall any day. But he's constantly improving his pitches released from that arm slot so it's hard to really get a good read. Along with his command of his pitches, I don't expect any regression anytime soon. Even though he doesn't have that wipeout pitch.

I agree 100% Doc. Good positive character will carry one a long way, whether one is a baseball player or a politician or a voter. 

[wabene]

1 hour ago, MABB1959 said:

Yay for coaches that we are so typically complaining about!

Please don't lump me in with that complaining which I don't enjoy. This front office modernized the whole system and is leaps and bounds better at player development than the previous regime. Especially pitching, the pitching development is night and day better.

[4twinsJA]

SWR has been pleasant surprise this year. I for one was did not have lofty expectations for him. Great job by SWR and Twins staff on making changes and progressing to level he is at. 

[KBJ1]

You can see how the 3/4 arm angle delays the upper body rotation and puts more lag (whip) into his arm, just like lag in a golf swing.

I still don't know quite how to interpret those pitch location charts, especially the vertical movement. Looks like the Fastball is at the top of the chart. Does that mean it doesn't move down? What does  it mean when the chart shows the fastball at a +15 location vertically??

[JD-TWINS]

4 hours ago, CRF said:

Saving the rotation is a bit strong, but there's no doubt he's pitched well since he's been back up here. We'll see if that continues...I hope so. 

“……saved the Team in the first half.” Yes, a bit strong BUT, a big time contributor and has definitely helped stabilize the staff.

His uptick in velocity is nice and his effectiveness with the slider are the two key elements in his very good performances game to game.

At 23, he’s a nice bright light for the Staff’s future. I’ve seen him pitch 3-4 times and his pitch mix keeps him from being a guy that “gets figured out by hitters” meaning as long as he continues to execute the way he has been, he should remain pretty effective! Look forward to his starts now instead of cringing at the thought - big change in my attitude over past 6 weeks.

[DocBauer]

I still have faith in Lopez to get over the hump and be the pitcher we saw the second half of 2023. Ryan has been phenomenal, doesn't even have to get better, just stay healthy and keep it up. Take away 2 ridiculous games against the Royals, and Ober has been about as good as he's ever been. Paddack has had a somewhat similar season to Ober's, a couple real stinkers, but otherwise has been solid to really good. He's been a little up and down, but I don't think that's all that unusual for someone coming back from TJ. Actually, he's been better than I had expected, or dared hope for.

I never saw Varland imploding like he did at the beginning of this year. I don't know if SWR saved the Twins rotation or not, but he sure kept the rotation off of life support.

I offered encouragement after he was traded for and looked bad due to his rushed advancement and the whole Olympic trial and games situation. I was encouraged after a solid 2022. I was really disappointed after last season. I know he was better the second half, but the BB were still up, and K's were still low, and the velocity was still barely hitting 90. I read articles about how his "stuff plus" should offer up hope, but I didn't have a lot, in full confession.

The guy we're seeing this season is a completely different pitcher. The velocity is up, some  of his pitches just look NASTY at times, and I agree with the announcers in his last game that he's just looking more and more confident on the mound.  A little more command, and the ability to finish guys off with 2 strikes a little better, and he might just be a #3 starter based on what I've seen so far. I've really liked the way the Twins have handled him so far.

I still don't know if Varland is going to be consistent enough to stay in the rotation, or move to a leverage spot in the pen with his stuff. But for now, I'm pretty sure he's going to stick to the rotation. Hopefully his latest start is a sign of things to come. Festa is awfully close. Matthews, Morris, and Lewis are all at AA now and other than any additional promotions, they should all three finish out the year at Wichita and be ready for St Paul in 2025, at the worst. Ohl is starting to look good again, and Raya is going to probably end up stretched out the 2nd half. I mean, you have to or you're going to be asked to roster him or not based on a pretty small sample size in another year or so. 

At this moment, I don't see anyone getting replaced in the Twins rotation, including SWR. Everyone's healthy and under 30, or way under 30. But even if Varland does move to the pen, if St Paul isn't pretty much stocked in the rotation next season, I'll be very surprised. 

[MABB1959]

3 hours ago, wabene said:

Please don't lump me in with that complaining which I don't enjoy. This front office modernized the whole system and is leaps and bounds better at player development than the previous regime. Especially pitching, the pitching development is night and day better.

Wasn't thinking of you or anyone when I wrote this but I think or it seems that there are always posts calling for heads of hitting and pitching coaches.  Must have been dreaming

[bean5302]

5 hours ago, Trov said:

I think people forget SWR ended last season doing well in AAA.  His first half was terrible, mostly from his BABIP allowed was very high.  His walk rate was about the same his strike out rate was about the same, but he gave up many less hits.  I am not discounting his change in pitching, but the article starts out saying his 2023 campaign ended on low note, but really it started on low note and ended not too bad.  The second half he put up ERA of around slightly over 3.00, a whip around 1.2. 

Please stop acting like he was a train wreck all year.  If you take away his first half numbers he would have still been considered a top prospect and people would not be shocked at what he is doing.   

No, he wasn't doing well in AAA to end the season. He was doing poorly. From 8/1+ in AAA last year:
4.80 FIP. The 1.28 WHIP (acceptable) came with an unsustainable .239 BABIP. For example, on 8/2, Woods Richardson went 4 innings with a 0.00 ERA, but he walked 6 guys (13.5 BB/9). The results on a quick surface looked better, but what was really happening underneath was not.

Based on the underlying 20% K rate (poor), 13% BB rate (terrible), and the expected home run rate based on fly balls, I'll continue to believe all Woods Richardson's box cars had derailed through the entire season.

[bean5302]

I think it's great Woods Richardson took note of his lack of performance and took steps to address it. For years the Twins had been trying to get him to adjust and stick to better mechanics, but the way this article words things makes me pretty concerned about the coaching situation in the minors. Why did Woods Richardson have to approach the coaches? Why wasn't this brought to him before as a "you should try this because you're not good enough to make the big show as you are"? Is it not the job of coaches and the development team to identify ways to correct or improve pitcher performance? I've considered the situation as SWR being uncoachable until he finally realized he was about to wash out, but perhaps it's the Twins' development team which needs some additional management?

Woods Richardson, I think, has saved the Twins rotation. I don't think it's an overstatement, despite some of the commenters thinking the statement is just hyperbole. Pablo Lopez has been pitching like Dallas Keuchel, there was  a major downgrade to our rotation from last year watching 3 of our top 5 opening day pitchers walk (Gray, Mahle, Maeda), and the front office sourced zero external replacements. This left the rotation depth razor thin, relying on a failed starter who was moved to the bullpen (Varland) to slot back in when a dubious option (Desclafani) went down for the season before ever pitching a game.

SWR has gotten results like we'd expect of Lopez, while Lopez has pitched more similarly to what we would have expected from Varland, Desclafani or Woods Richardson himself. There's no good reason to suspect the results to continue as they have been up to this point as SWR has a 4.09 xFIP right now, and he hasn't generated a lot of pop ups to make the HR/FB rate stay well below average, but the Twins' position in the standings would probably look a lot more bleak if he hadn't come up and put on his best MLB ace costume for a few starts now.

The 97mph fastball from last game might suggest there's more velo in the tank and more ceiling to find in his game, but I'm already a bit concerned with durability of suddenly adding 3-4mph one day in Spring Training, let alone 7mph+. Hopefully, SWR remains healthy and continues to improve as he learns to pitch with this sudden and unexpected added velocity.

[David Maro]

SWR is showing a lot of confidence on the mound and seems to have a plan.When you watch Varland he looks like the ball is too hot to hold on to.He is throwing not pitching,needs slow down and relax.

[USAFChief]

We know who to blame...

[Peter]

Woods defiantly saved our rotation!!! He’s only going to get better and will be future part of rotation!!!