Miami Moves On: Reviewing the Luis Arráez for Pablo Lopez Trade

[Cody Christie]

The Luis Arráez for Pablo Lopez trade has been interesting for fans to track over the last year. Now that the Marlins have moved on from Arraez, are the Twins the clear winner of this trade?

Image courtesy of Jim Rassol, USA Today Sports

The Twins front office faced a challenging situation leading into the 2023 season because the team needed more starting pitching depth, which would likely cost an established veteran player or a prospect package. Minnesota traded Arráez to the Miami Marlins for Lopez and two prospects, Byron Chourio and Jose Salas. The trade was tough to swallow for fans because Lopez seemed like a mid-rotation starter with an injury history, while Arráez was coming off a year where he won the AL Batting Title. It also didn’t help that Arráez got off to a scorching hot start in a Marlins uniform. 

Initial Returns
Entering last season, Miami had a starting pitching surplus while the Twins had other options for the line-up, so it made sense for both teams to pull the trigger. Minnesota’s other infield options included Jorge Polanco, Edouard Julien, Jose Miranda, and Alex Kirilloff at the positions Arráez was most likely to play. Despite trading Lopez, Miami had three pitchers (Sandy Alcántara, Jesús Luzardo, and Braxton Garrett) pitch over 150 innings while averaging a 3.7 rWAR. 

Arráez got off to a scorching start with Miami while flirting with batting .400 through much of the first half. He was named an All-Star for the second consecutive season and accumulated a career-high 4.9 rWAR. Lopez was also selected to the All-Star team and finished in the top 10 for the AL Cy Young with a 3.3 rWAR. Minnesota quickly signed Lopez to an extension after seeing how quickly he improved his performance by adding a new pitch. Miami earned a playoff spot for only the second time since 2003, while Lopez helped the Twins end their own playoff losing streak. It seemed like a trade that worked for both sides. 

Miami included two prospects in the trade because Arráez had one more year of team control than Lopez. Chourio, an outfielder, played the 2023 season in the FCL, hitting .262/.415/.298 (.713) with three doubles and more walks (20) than strikeouts (19). He’s getting his first taste of full season action this season in the FSL, where he has a .742 OPS in his first 15 games. Salas, an infielder, was a borderline top-100 prospect entering last season, with Baseball America ranking him 93rd overall. However, he struggled in Cedar Rapids with a .531 OPS and a 29.1 K%. The Twins sent him back to the Midwest League, and so far in 2024, he has increased his OPS by 38 points. Both prospects can potentially add future value, but the Twins are already getting plenty of value from Lopez. 

Miami Moving On 
Miami was a surprise playoff team last season, especially coming out of the tough NL East. Instead of building off that momentum, the organization wanted to hire a president of baseball operations over general manager Kim Ng. Understandably, someone in her position wouldn’t accept a downgrade to the organization’s number two spot regarding decision-making. Her hiring was historic since she became MLB’s first female GM and only the second Asian GM. The Arráez trade was the signature move during her tenure, and much like the ownership group moved on from Ng, the new front office decided to move on from Arráez. 

The Marlins hired Peter Bendix as general manager this winter, and trading Arráez will shape the Miami organization in the future. In return, Miami received four prospects - right-handed pitcher Woo-Suk Go, infielder Nathan Martorella, outfielder Dillon Head, and outfielder Jakob Marsee. It was also announced that Miami is paying Arráez's salary down to the league minimum as part of the deal. Bendix told reporters, “We’re unlikely to make the playoffs this year. Trading for future values seems like the right thing for this organization right now.”

Arráez has one more year of arbitration eligibility, so there is value in the Padres acquiring him at this point. Other teams, like the Royals, were rumored to be interested in adding Arráez, but Miami preferred the package from San Diego. The Marlins’ side of the deal will take time to develop, but the Twins must be happy with how the initial trade played out for Minnesota. 

What are your thoughts on the Arráez-Lopez trade? Are you surprised by Miami already dealing him away? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

 

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[gman]

The first trade of Arreaz was surprising, but this one even more so. He may turn into a lifetime dh and occasional utility infielder. I still wish him best of luck.

[mickster]

5 minutes ago, gman said:

The first trade of Arreaz was surprising, but this one even more so. He may turn into a lifetime dh and occasional utility infielder. I still wish him best of luck.

Arreaz has a non-valued skill set in todays MLB.   Put that in along with a below average defender and it was a great trade for MN.   It will also help replenish the MIA farm system.    His ability to get on base may play with SD as they have boppers to follow.    I loved him, but was the most valuable piece we had and the FO did well in trading him.   

[jccracraft]

As you say, we had a surplus of infielders. Julien may (or may not) end up actually being an upgrade from Arreaz. Plus we have others coming. Solid trade.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

As shown,  Arraez value is extremely tied to be an elite contact hitter as he offers very little else on defense or in power.  For San Diego this was a luxury trade,  they really don't need more offense,  but a great table setter even as a DH is useful.  He is also a nice fill in at 2nd base if an injury occurs.   As shown San Diego paid very little in the grand scheme of things.  Compared to Pablo,  it was a massive loss for the marlins.  The other issue is Arraez camp is clear they are looking for max dollars.  No extensions,  challenging arbitration.  They are being extremely aggressive.   I wish Arraez the best.  

[mickster]

10 minutes ago, jccracraft said:

As you say, we had a surplus of infielders. Julien may (or may not) end up actually being an upgrade from Arreaz. Plus we have others coming. Solid trade.

Julien may be the next to go as well...........with some depth, he may be intriguing for others for an SP

[DJL44]

55 minutes ago, mickster said:

Arreaz has a non-valued skill set in todays MLB.

His skill set is valued quite highly in arbitration, more than it would be as a free agent.

[mickster]

9 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

His skill set is valued quite highly in arbitration, more than it would be as a free agent.

I would agree that arbitration numbers will inflate the cost, but won't get that value as a free agent.   This might not be the last time he is traded.

[Doctor Gast]

Arraez is a generational contact hitter a great all-around great guy. He is well-loved wherever he goes. Although many argued that he was a super utility guy, he wasn't. It was hard to find a place for him to play, but his bat found a place in the line-up. 

IMO Lopez/ Arraez trade was a no-brainer that helped both teams. I believe FO didn't want to trade him but not being able to extend him much like MIA was the last nail. If there was a winner it was us.

MIA did a 160 degree from wanting an MLB-ready SS & catcher to be a contender to a rebuild. Since they didn't get those players they wanted they didn't even try to be a contender which gave them the excuse to blow things up. Most everybody will be on the block.

 

[IndianaTwin]

 

I've said it before and I'll keep saying it. "Are the Twins the clear winner..." implies that someone had to lose. Trades don't have to be zero-sum games. In the best trades, both teams "win." 

The question is, "Did the Twins benefit by trading Luis Arraez for Pablo Lopez and two prospects?"

 

Given their needs and how Lopez (and Julien, et. al) have done, it's an unequivocal "Yes" in my book.

[Blyleven2011]

Arraez  ( major leaguer ) was loved as a fan favorite  in twins uniform  because he hit like carew ...

Arraez  ( major leaguer ) is going to be just as loved by the Padres because he bats like Gwynn  ...

People are going to say his defense  isn't equal to Carew and Gwynn  , but you can't argue about the bat , love his style and professionalism  ...

Go Luis  , good luck on another promising chapter ...

[Danchat]

Seems like a win for both teams on paper. It is notable that Salas' stock as a prospect has dropped off after his acqusition and he still isn't doing much better in his second year at Cedar Rapids. He's still young, but his value has fallen quite a bit. Chourio is only 19 and just starting out at Fort Myers, so not much to say there yet.  

[ashbury]

Suppose Arraez were not in the picture. 

If the Marlins still had Pablo Lopez, and decided to wave the white flag this early in the season, and traded him to the Padres for these four players, a pitcher who looks to be not very consequential and three bats who are outside the top-100 across MLB but are highly enough regarded to be around top-10 in either the Padres or Marlins organizations, would this be seen as a good trade for Miami?  Usually I want more young pitching than this in return for an established starter, but the Marlins are perennially short on bats, so all in all it looks like a reasonable return.

If so, then this recent trade doesn't change my view of last year's MIN-MIA trade, namely a good move by MIN but a win-win for the two teams.

[rv78]

" The Marlins’ side of the deal will take time to develop, but the Twins must be happy with how the initial trade played out. If nothing else, it's a good sign that they're not already considering another one. "

 

Who's not already considering another one? How do you know? If it's the Twins, anyone could be moved at the trade deadline outside of Buck and Correa who have no trade clauses. Not having a batting champion to trade only means the return won't be as good but I'd bet if the right offer came along it will be considered if it hasn't already. 

[NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin]

That's some terrible asset management by the Marlins. Considering the returns in the Luis Castillo, Dylan Cease, and Corbin Burnes trades, to turn Pablo Lopez into one year of Arraez and three borderline top-10 system prospects seems underwhelming.

I'm not sure what the offers they received at the 2022 deadline looked like, but the Dodgers were reportedly in very hot pursuit of Lopez. Maybe this mismanagement will persuade them to deal Luzardo sooner rather than later.

[mikelink45]

I love him and expect the best from him. We hoped Julien would give us what Luis did, he hasn't so far.  I will always be his fan.

[DocBauer]

Like everyone else, I'm a huge fan of Arraez and always will be. He's an absolute unicorn: a generational hitter with a good OB% and clutch hitting, but limited power, little speed, and not much defensively. Boy oh boy is he nice to see at the top of your order in one of the top two spots. (Though he does seem to usually fall off some in the second half of seasons. Worn out perhaps?)

But with what the Twins had, had coming up, and need in the rotation, it was the right move af the time to trade for Lopez, and it remains the right move today.

I don't think any "winner" needs to be decided in the trade. Both teams benefited initially, but we have Lopez. And that's all I need to know. It's a long rabbit hole to go down if we wait and see what becomes of the prospects Miami received from the Padres. And that's a path I care not to follow..

On a side note, when Miami moved on from Kim Ng, I think it was obvious they were probably going to begin a rebuild, though with some years of control left, I didn't see them moving on from Arraez so soon. I really thought the Marlins still needed some young bats, and thought the Twins might offer up a collection of solid prospects...beyond the first 5 or 6 in the system... for Edward Cabrera, talented, controllable, but somewhat enigmatic. I thought it made a ton of sense for both clubs. Looks like no deal there was the best outcome for the Twins.

Best of luck to Luis, except of course when he faces us.

[AlGoreRythm]

3 hours ago, rv78 said:

" The Marlins’ side of the deal will take time to develop, but the Twins must be happy with how the initial trade played out. If nothing else, it's a good sign that they're not already considering another one. "

Who's not already considering another one? How do you know? If it's the Twins, anyone could be moved at the trade deadline outside of Buck and Correa who have no trade clauses. Not having a batting champion to trade only means the return won't be as good but I'd bet if the right offer came along it will be considered if it hasn't already. 

C'mon bud, you know the point being made.

Would the Twins trade Pablo for someone like Ronald Acuna Jr., yes.

Is that in any way a realistic trade? No, obviously not. 

They aren't looking to trade him. If a team offered a ridiculous overpay, then yeah, most any team would say yes to most any trade if getting an outsized return.

The Twins didn't sign Pablo to that extension just to trade him a year in. They're looking for him to anchor the rotation for the next few years.

[SwainZag]

3 hours ago, NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin said:

That's some terrible asset management by the Marlins. Considering the returns in the Luis Castillo, Dylan Cease, and Corbin Burnes trades, to turn Pablo Lopez into one year of Arraez and three borderline top-10 system prospects seems underwhelming.

I'm not sure what the offers they received at the 2022 deadline looked like, but the Dodgers were reportedly in very hot pursuit of Lopez. Maybe this mismanagement will persuade them to deal Luzardo sooner rather than later.

Contract. Honestly, this is one of the main reasons that the Twins were okay sending Luis away.  He is making $10.6M this year, and next year is his last year of arbitration.  He is going to get another pay raise.....or a long term deal.  IMO, the Marlins were always going to send him somewhere.....I would have guessed closer to the deadline if they were struggling or off-season if they were in the race though.

With Arraez's BABIP back down to normal levels this year, what do you give an elite contact hitter with an OPS around .400, a rare strikeout victim and average at best defense at 2B?  He is such a unique player.

[NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin]

28 minutes ago, SwainZag said:

Contract. Honestly, this is one of the main reasons that the Twins were okay sending Luis away.  He is making $10.6M this year, and next year is his last year of arbitration.  He is going to get another pay raise.....or a long term deal.  IMO, the Marlins were always going to send him somewhere.....I would have guessed closer to the deadline if they were struggling or off-season if they were in the race though.

With Arraez's BABIP back down to normal levels this year, what do you give an elite contact hitter with an OPS around .400, a rare strikeout victim and average at best defense at 2B?  He is such a unique player.

I fully understand this recent decision, though I maybe would have waited until the deadline to see if someone wanted to overpay. What I do not understand is why the Marlins chose to acquire Luis Arraez over the absolute haul they could've gotten from the Dodgers. They knew that he was going to get $10-$20M in his final two arbitration years, and even if he played to his ceiling (which he did in '23), that contract would not be very team-friendly. 

The Marlins traded Pablo Lopez and two top-30 guys to Arraez. Then they traded Arraez for three top-30 guys and a low-leverage reliever. They traded at least two years of ace-level production (and a 2-0 postseason record so far) for one batting champion season, a low-leverage reliever, and a top-30 prospect (gained three, lost two). Again, considering the haul they were asking from the Dodgers, I'd say that they did a poor job. 

Dodgers Rumors: Marlins' asking price for Pablo Lopez was insane (dodgersway.com)