Louie Varland is Cleared For Take-Off

[Lou Hennessy]

The discouraging, yet predictable, news of Anthony DeSclafani’s extended absence from the Twins’ rotation clouded what was looking to be a pretty sunny outlook for the club as they near Opening Day. The silver lining could be the extended runway that it grants Louie Varland as he tries to re-establish himself as a starting pitcher. 

Louie’s been here before. 
Last season, the electric right-hander wasn’t viewed as worthy of one of the five slots in the Opening Day rotation, but he found himself starting a bundle of games throughout the year, and then dominated in a quick flash in the bullpen at the end of the season. 
But now, he’s been granted an extended runway in the Major League rotation to start the year, and there’s reasons to believe this time could be different for North St. Paul’s native son.

The Opportunity
Varland went into this offseason with as much clarity as the rest of us when it came to his role with the club in 2024. Was he going to stay in the big league bullpen after a masterful September and October stretch as a reliever? Would he have to spend some more time in the Triple-A rotation to begin the season? 
Varland didn’t know how the club’s plans would shake out, but he said all the right things in the meantime. 
“I’m going to pitch to the best of my ability, in either role,” Varland said in front of a few hundred beer-soaked patrons and a handful of tipsy Twins Daily writers at their annual Winter Meltdown in January. “Come Spring Training, I’m going to do my best to compete for a starting role. I want to make the decision on the coaches as hard as possible.”
As luck would have it, the decision to have Varland take hold of a spot in the Twins’ rotation out of spring training is looking like a rather easy call for the club’s decision-makers. Anthony DeSclafani, who was already looking like a long shot to join the starting five at any point in the first few weeks of the season, left his minor league outing with more elbow discomfort and will seek the opinion of Dr. Keith Meister, who has performed Tommy John surgery on a handful of MLB stars in recent years. 
Now, instead of being tasked with fill-in duties until the club’s veteran acquisition returns to action, Varland has as open of a runway as he could hope for. He shouldn’t have to worry about the ticking clock that leads to his trip down I-94 back to CHS Field. A bad start on any given night won’t hold the same weight. He can fine-tune his offerings on a macro scale at the game’s highest level. 
And from there, Varland’s success can speak for itself. 

What’s different?
This isn’t the first time we’ve felt optimism for Varland as he got an opportunity with the big league rotation. I wrote about this being Louie’s time to shine in early-May last year, and he went on to have a 5.72 ERA across his next seven starts before being sent back down to Triple-A. 
But this time can be different because of what the 26-year-old developed as a reliever late last year, as well as what he’s been tinkering with in the offseason. These new weapons can elevate him to a solid middle-of-the-rotation arm if all goes to plan, and their usage will be put under a microscope in the early going. 
First, it’s clear that a boost in velocity when he transitioned to a relief role helped elevate his fastball to new heights. While he sat at a comfortable 94-96 MPH level with his heater as a starter in the first half of 2023, that number rose to 97-98 MPH as a reliever. However, the more enticing development from that switch occurred with his cutter, which became one of the best raw pitches in baseball in a short sample size of seven relief appearances last September. 
That cutter became uncrushable, as opponents only mustered a .118 batting average and failed to get a single extra-base hit off of it. It also missed bats at an electric pace, with a 45.7% whiff rate, which was enough for Varland to make it one of his most-trusted tools to finish off a hitter late in at-bats. Inside Edge pegged Varland as having the second-highest percentage of strikeouts coming on cutters (32.4%), trailing only Corbin Burnes (44%). That’s very good company, as Burnes is known to have arguably the best cutter in the game. 
The hope would be that Varland’s effective cutter can follow him into the rotation, proving his success in the bullpen wasn’t solely because of his four-seam getting a velocity boost. If he can keep missing bats with the cutter, he instantly becomes a vital piece to the Twins’ rotation puzzle. 
Besides trying to keep that promising whiff rate at a high level, Varland is also working to develop his sinker in an effort to jam right-handed hitters. His righty opponents crushed 11 home runs off of him last year, and tuned him up with a .275/.317/.526 slash line. Those numbers need to come down if Varland is to stick in the rotation for the foreseeable future. Using the cutter to get more swing-and-misses, and mixing in his sinker in hitter’s counts to avoid major damage should help his cause. 

Varland’s opportunity in the rotation is going to paint a pretty good picture about his future with the club. If he’s shaky for an extended period, some more fine-tuning in the minor leagues could be on the table. If he really takes off as a starting pitcher with a cutter that is anywhere near as nasty as it was out of the bullpen, and a tinkered-sinker to boot, he could be a potential building block as a mid-rotation arm with multiple years of club control. 
Whatever happens from here, it’s going to start on the extended runway that Varland has been granted.

 

What do you think? What are some realistic expectations for Louie Varland as a starting pitcher? Let us know what you think in the comment section below, and as always, keep it sweet. 
 

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[mikelink45]

I am all for the Varland story.  Let's go.  No looking back. 

[Doctor Gast]

We all are depending on Varland to stabilize himself as a MLB SP. Go get 'em Louie!

[DJL44]

An ERA below 5 will be okay for a 5th starter.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

Let's go Louie Varland!  I'm pretty optimistic that he will do well in a starting role this year.  News Flash!  He's not going to win the Cy Young Award this year.  That's OK.  If you want to think of him as the "5th starter", whatever that means, then the bar is plenty low for someone just getting their first extended look. With the experiences gained last year both starting and relieving, he has the tools to do well.  I'm certain that more than half the teams in baseball would take him in a second to be their fifth starter.  A few years ago we might have looked at a young pitcher like Varland to be our second or third starter!

[CRF]

We're gonna need him to be able to hold his own in the rota and pitch effectively. He's got the tools, he just needs to use them the right way, and also keep an even keel out there. He can't let his emotions get the better of him. Let's go Louie! You got this!

[rv78]

Hope springs eternal in the spring. Reality hits hard in the summer. We'll see how he is then, and know more.

[Parfigliano]

Be the ball Louie.

[Joe A. Preusser]

I think he'll be just fine as long as he remembers to breath through his eyelids.  

[Karbo]

An ERA in the mid 4s would be great. Let's hope he's up to it!

[awmonahan]

Louie's got a little time. If he fails early this year, he can rebound as either a starter in the minors or a reliever. It's on him now, and I'm curious to see what he'll do. 

[h2oface]

Not a great time to give up 8 earned in 4 innings yesterday. Against the Tigers.......

[DocBauer]

For once, I admonish the FO for the faith/hope they showed in DeScalfini MAYBE being a 5th option for the rotation to at least begin 2024. They're just smarter than that! But I am going to focus on Varland, and Varland alone.

The TWO TIME Twins milb pitcher of the year...let's not forget that...had a pretty nice debut in 2022 with a sub 4 ERA in his 21 IP, including pitching in NY for his first appearance, I believe.

I remain surprised how many people forget his 1st cup of coffee as well as his first 5 games started...still as a rookie...in 2023. After 5 games he had a sub 4 ERA and was averaging about a K per inning. Then, like many rookies, he ran in to some trouble. His next 3 games inflated his ERA before his impressive late season bullpen stint. 

As a SP, he's going to sit 94-96, not 98-99, and that's FINE. His cutter will sit 88-90, not 91-93, and that's also FINE. His issue is powerful RH bats beating him up from time to time as he's a reverse split pitcher so far. He's OK as a 5th starter as is. Totally competent. But he takes a step forward if his new 2 seamer takes hold! And while he hasn't thrown it a ton this spring, if he can make it even an average pitch, he's better than a 5th starter. If he can make it a notch above average offering, he's a legitimate mid rotation starter. 

The HOPE was DeScalfini could be a solid 5th starter to at least begin the season. Personally, that's all I expected or hoped for. That would allow Varland to work more on his new 2 seamer at St Paul and be the next man up. That's out the window now. He now has to be that "competent" 5th starter while still working on his new pitch. I have a lot of faith in him. But I'm expecting better 2nd half numbers than 1st half numbers as he gets more comfortable. Short term, he can be solid. Long term, he can and will get better.

It's the depth issue that concerns me, not Varland. I've always thought he would be as good or better than DeScalfini. 

 

[AlGoreRythm]

What does a successful 2024 look like for Varland statistically?

How many innings? ERA? Whip?

Or another way to approach the question... Is there a point at which you decide he needs more time at AAA or a move to the bullpen?

How much runway does he get if things don't go as well as we all hope they do?

If he stays healthy, does he stay in the rotation all year no matter what, or is there another solution if he still gives up too many HRs?

[Parfigliano]

2 hours ago, h2oface said:

Not a great time to give up 8 earned in 4 innings yesterday. Against the Tigers.......

Better then when it will go down on his permanent record.

[h2oface]

23 minutes ago, Parfigliano said:

Better then when it will go down on his permanent record.

Duh  

[I Never Bet On Sports]

I think there is a legitimate chance that Varland stays on the roster the entire season, although the odds are against it. I am rooting for him.

I hope Rocco utilizes a 4/5 piggy back the first eight games of the season where we don't need a 5th starter. Having Paddack start and go 3-4 innings followed by Varland for 3-4 would limit innings for Paddack to start the season. If Paddack doesn't finish an inning you bring in a reliever to finish that inning so Varland can start a clean inning. They would pitch game 4 vs Milwaukee then game 8 vs. Cleveland. To me this has the added benefits of limiting your need to use the bullpen during those two starts with Duran on the IL and it also sets you up for Lopez, Ober, and Ryan to start for the Dodgers series. 

[Jeff K]

I like Varland and feel he can be a solid 5th starter this season.  Unfortunately, our experienced depth in starting pitching is now diminished.  I'm sure everyone noticed that the Rangers signed Michael Lorenzen for 4 - 7 Million (incentives) in a one year deal.  That looks pretty good to me and I wonder if the Twins had a shot at him, or if they were not interested.  I think given the aspirations the team has this year, that would have been a good signing.

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

8 hours ago, h2oface said:

Not a great time to give up 8 earned in 4 innings yesterday. Against the Tigers.......

Got BABIP'd to death in Spring Training, the sky isn't falling.

8 singles, 1 HR, 89 mph average exit velocity. Sometimes that happens in baseball, wasn't a horrific outing. 

[JD-TWINS]

He’s continually improving with time. IMO, he’ll have 2-3 starts per month of 3 runs or less through 5-6 innings & then he’ll give up 5 in 3 2/3. He’ll be more volatile than most established guys so his ERA may not reflect his value in most of the games. He’s a pretty good 5th option for any club.

SWR & Festa being the depth pieces as needed are the bigger question marks - feel good about them but just a feeling - gotta see it work.

[joefish]

Giddy up, louie.

[Linus]

I like Louie. He works fast and throws strikes - baseball needs more pitchers like that. The game moves along and there is something happening. Whether Louie is a big league quality starter is still an open question however. Wishing him the best but he still has to prove he belongs in the rotation.