2024 Minnesota Twins Position Battles: The Final Bench Spot

[stringer bell]

In other threads, I have made the case for Austin Martin as the 26th guy. He runs well, is reputed to be a good outfielder (center field capable) and is versatile. Martin is projected to be someone that makes contact and gets on base, two things the 2023 Twins lacked. IMHO, Martin is the best fit for the vacancy at this time. 

I think this position battle is really a free-for-all where Spring Training actually matters. If any of Miranda, Larnach or Martin look really good and substantially better than the other two, I think they get the job to open the season. Maybe one of the other guys mentioned shows they belong. It's a little tougher when you're not on the 40-man roster, however. 

Also, it figures that all three of the guys mentioned will get their chance sometime this year. The season may be the last chance for Miranda and Larnach to establish themselves as big leaguers (Kirilloff too), but whether they make the club out of Spring Training is not the end. 

[Brandon]

From the list of what we have the last spot should go to either Larnarch or Martin with Miranda on the periphery.  It depends on how many innings they want Castro to have in CF.  I think they can live with 100-200 innings but more than that has them looking for alternatives.  This is why they are still looking.  I think they want to plan for 500-700 innings from a back up which is near 1/3 to 1/2 time in CF.  Which is why we are still talking to Taylor about a deal or Duvall or possibly Pham.

[Mike Sixel]

37 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

If Larnach doesn't make this team, it means the Twins missed their window to trade him for decent equity. They had three years to move a guy who was a top prospect yet pretty redundant. If he's sent down to start the year, than he's shown next to nothing and is optionless after this season. They'd only be able to trade him for peanuts.

Another example of why the team shouldn't cling so tight to the top prospects thinking they're so much more likely to produce than the 2nd and 3rd tier prospects.

He wasn't redundant three or two years ago. That's just not fair. I agree with you in principle, but not this example. I'm not sure we knew he was redundant last year to start either.

Thiey do have more OF prospects than catcher or pitcher right now....

[Heiny]

I predict a breakout for Larnach.  I have been high on him ever since he was drafted and been disapointed each year.  But if he is going to get it figured out, now is the time, and he very well knows it.  When he gets the bat on the ball it can go a long way.  If Martin has a good spring training he could very well be the guy, rookie or not.  I could also see the Twins signing MAT, Duvall or Pham which would make them the 26th man.  In any case, I'm not too worried about the team as it stands.  However, I still think signing Montgomery is the last best option.  If Buxton can stay relatively healthy, the extra hitter is not necessary and we have enough backup in Martin, Kiersey and Helman to start with.  I think the starting pitcher is the biggest need.  But as things stand, I would bet on the last spot going to Larnach to start the season.

[Mike Sixel]

I predict a mediocre veteran not on the roster

[ashbury]

Larnach is not ideal as a bench player, in consideration of the others on the roster, but I do want to find out if he can contribute in the majors.  His numbers last season weren't too good, but we know there were injuries as part of the picture, and he finished strong, from late July on.  He fits a pattern of someone ready to become a starter, and I'd hate to see him do that with another team if we give him up for pennies on the dollar.  Can he stay on the field in top physical condition, though?

[nicksaviking]

27 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

He wasn't redundant three or two years ago. That's just not fair. I agree with you in principle, but not this example. I'm not sure we knew he was redundant last year to start either.

Thiey do have more OF prospects than catcher or pitcher right now....

Last year he wasn't, but his value was already diminished by then.

The Twins always had corner bats though, and the fans were getting on them for continuing to use high picks on those types of players. At Larnach's peak value, Sano was supposed to be at 1B and was given an extension because of it. Kepler had one OF spot and it was supposed to be Kirilloff vs Larnach for the other one vacated by Rosario. They should have picked one and moved the other.

*******RIOT WARNING**********

I'm sure Julien and Lee WILL be better than those two, but it seems like a similar situation. Keep one, trade the other. Don't get caught holding marginal value down the line when one could be used to fill a massive hole right now on a team that could be a legit contender if they had one more top pitcher.

Though, perhaps I shouldn't have said 'Top Prospect'. I can recognize the difference in caliber in prospects like Jenkins and Royce Lewis than the guys we've discussed. I wouldn't move those kind of players. Probably.

[nicksaviking]

2 minutes ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

Maybe Luplow is still out there😱

All kidding aside, I would bet that without any more changes, Larnach would be the guy.  If we bring in another outfielder, then he would be the first guy to STP.

I'd honestly rather have a Luplow for that last spot than a vet making a legit MLB salary. They would have no qualms cutting bait on a Luplow when it's time to turn to someone in St. Paul. If it's a Michael Taylor type, they'll never open up that roster spot. That last spot needs to have plenty of baked in flexibility.

[RpR]

19 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I predict a mediocre veteran not on the roster

Or a mediocre rookie.

[Mike Sixel]

8 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Last year he wasn't, but his value was already diminished by then.

The Twins always had corner bats though, and the fans were getting on them for continuing to use high picks on those types of players. At Larnach's peak value, Sano was supposed to be at 1B and was given an extension because of it. Kepler had one OF spot and it was supposed to be Kirilloff vs Larnach for the other one vacated by Rosario. They should have picked one and moved the other.

*******RIOT WARNING**********

I'm sure Julien and Lee WILL be better than those two, but it seems like a similar situation. Keep one, trade the other. Don't get caught holding marginal value down the line when one could be used to fill a massive hole right now on a team that could be a legit contender if they had one more top pitcher.

Though, perhaps I shouldn't have said 'Top Prospect'. I can recognize the difference in caliber in prospects like Jenkins and Royce Lewis than the guys we've discussed. I wouldn't move those kind of players. Probably.

Hard to disagree with that last half..... especially the context part. 

[Mike Sixel]

12 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Last year he wasn't, but his value was already diminished by then.

The Twins always had corner bats though, and the fans were getting on them for continuing to use high picks on those types of players. At Larnach's peak value, Sano was supposed to be at 1B and was given an extension because of it. Kepler had one OF spot and it was supposed to be Kirilloff vs Larnach for the other one vacated by Rosario. They should have picked one and moved the other.

*******RIOT WARNING**********

I'm sure Julien and Lee WILL be better than those two, but it seems like a similar situation. Keep one, trade the other. Don't get caught holding marginal value down the line when one could be used to fill a massive hole right now on a team that could be a legit contender if they had one more top pitcher.

Though, perhaps I shouldn't have said 'Top Prospect'. I can recognize the difference in caliber in prospects like Jenkins and Royce Lewis than the guys we've discussed. I wouldn't move those kind of players. Probably.

that first part also shows why maybe you don't trade depth.....because Sano didn't work and they needed both Larnach and Kiriloff (neither of whom have worked out).....and this team won't afford veterans in all those spots....

[TwinsDr2021]

IMO, Larnach is the guy, he is 27 and there really is no reason to have a 27 year old fielder on the 40 man in the minors. Martin is 25 and there really is no reason to have a 25 year old rookie sitting the on the bench. Martin starts off in the minors and the Twins hope he is so good he has to be brought up, and then figure out where to play him.

[stringer bell]

3 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

I'd honestly rather have a Luplow for that last spot than a vet making a legit MLB salary. They would have no qualms cutting bait on a Luplow when it's time to turn to someone in St. Paul. If it's a Michael Taylor type, they'll never open up that roster spot. That last spot needs to have plenty of baked in flexibility.

Yup, that is Martin. Flexible in what positions he can play and also able to be optioned. I know that is not what you are saying, but it fits for me too.

I don't want to see whoever they might sign (Pham, Duvall, Taylor) Santana or Farmer  hitting for Wallner or Julien (as the DH) or Kirilloff in the fourth inning. It is just too easy to do and the guys with their future in front of them have their progress stunted. The 26th guy would be slated to start against lefties and that only guarantees about 40 starts a year. I think one of Miranda, Martin or Larnach can do better, although Miranda really doesn't have a position with the roster as it stands right now. 

[nicksaviking]

1 hour ago, stringer bell said:

Yup, that is Martin. Flexible in what positions he can play and also able to be optioned. I know that is not what you are saying, but it fits for me too.

I don't want to see whoever they might sign (Pham, Duvall, Taylor) Santana or Farmer  hitting for Wallner or Julien (as the DH) or Kirilloff in the fourth inning. It is just too easy to do and the guys with their future in front of them have their progress stunted. The 26th guy would be slated to start against lefties and that only guarantees about 40 starts a year. I think one of Miranda, Martin or Larnach can do better, although Miranda really doesn't have a position with the roster as it stands right now. 

Agree. And most of the options listed, even if unexciting were flexible in that way. Martin, Prato and Helman certainly are defensively flexible and Miranda and Severino to some degree though perhaps not in the same way. Additionally, Chris Williams and Alex Isola are also invited to camp and have defensive flexibility as well.

I'm also not one to carry a 3rd catcher, but if that 3rd catcher can actually hit AND play 1B like Williams, Isola and Camargo, I'd be interested, especially if it was a semi-audition to see if moving Vazquez or Santana is feasible later in the year.

[stringer bell]

I don't think Larnach should be the 26th man for the Twins, however I think there's a lot more than 0% chance that he makes the club and runs with it. Larnach looked like the Twins best hitter the first couple of weeks, then the wheels came off and pretty soon he was optioned. He had health issues as well. 

It was pretty clear that Larnach was clearly ahead of Wallner by Opening Day last year. Trevor didn't do enough with his opportunity and Matt did. This all could be reversed in 2024, all one has to do is look at what happened to Miranda last year. He is a corner outfielder with limited versatility. He has to be a better hitter than his competitors because of that.

[jorgenswest]

This look at the last spot highlights the need for an everyday bat. The DH against right handed pitching which they will see 75% of the time should not be the last man on the bench.

They already have two short side platoon players in Farmer and Santana and some suggest they need a third in a corner OF spot. Signing someone like Taylor for that spot almost guarantees that one of these bats will be in the game most days against right handed pitching. What are the alternatives? Castro? His projections with the bat are all below league average. Vazquez? He will play at least 40% and they can use Jeffers at DH some but that isn’t a viable plan for against right handed pitcher. Jeffers at DH against a lefty works..

They need an everyday bat. There aren’t enough bench spots to carry three short side platoon players.

[Fatbat]

3 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I’m curious why Larnach is the favorite here. Where would he play, and when (if everyone is healthy.) Of the players you mention, Martin makes the most sense, that said I’d argue the real favorite should be listed as tbd/not yet in the organization 

The favorite only because of previous MLB experience and the hope that he can finally hit a breaking ball. he will be playing the bench, pinch hit and be an available COF. Not an exciting option!

Martin can play Castro II utility role. Exciting for his OBP and run manufacturing abilities.  He s young and might send Larnach packing if he has an excellent MLB debut. 
Miranda will be in AAA getting ready for his “Im back and better than ever” tryout due to an injury.

Lee wasn’t mentioned and I expect him to not be on the 26but never say never.  He is the best option long term. Highest floor. Highest ceiling of all possible on the list. He should not be sitting on the bench tho!

Martin likely gets the nod for the simple fact that he or Castro has to cover Buxtons inability to play in CF and a 2nd utility man is a must. 
 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

3 hours ago, stringer bell said:

Willi Castro in the lineup somewhere and a presumed regular as the DH, for example Julien, Lewis, Wallner, Buxton. Kepler.

This is what I believe to be the most likely situation 

[nicksaviking]

I think we'll know if Martin is a legit option early on in spring training, and that would be if he's regularly playing CF. Looking at his game logs, he only played CF once in his last three weeks in St. Paul, and that was despite Stevenson getting called up to the majors.

If he's not getting many CF reps, I think Keirsey is likely ahead of him, and possibly both Prato and Helman considering not just their seniority (barf, not a legit reason), but also their offensive production (totally legit reason).

[Mike Sixel]

3 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

I think we'll know if Martin is a legit option early on in spring training, and that would be if he's regularly playing CF. Looking at his game logs, he only played CF once in his last three weeks in St. Paul, and that was despite Stevenson getting called up to the majors.

If he's not getting many CF reps, I think Keirsey is likely ahead of him, and possibly both Prato and Helman considering not just their seniority (barf, not a legit reason), but also their offensive production (totally legit reason).

If he's not playing CF, I don't know why....and hope he's awesome to start the year in AAA and traded, because they are wasting time with him in the infield in AAA given what is in MN and AAA already.

[nicksaviking]

Just now, Mike Sixel said:

If he's not playing CF, I don't know why....and hope he's awesome to start the year in AAA and traded, because they are wasting time with him in the infield in AAA given what is in MN and AAA already.

Right, the only reason he shouldn't be playing CF now is because they think he can't cut it. Hopefully there was a different reason for it late last year.

[stringer bell]

Martin was put on the 40-man, Keirsey, Prato and Helman were not. None of these guys are waiting to drink their first legal beer. Whoever is better should be “ahead” in the pecking order. 

[Mike Sixel]

To be clear, I'd split time for Martin between second and CF, LF.... injuries happen.

[nicksaviking]

40 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

Martin was put on the 49-man, Keirsey, Prato and Helman were not. None of these guys are waiting to drink their first legal beer. Whoever is better should be “ahead” in the pecking order. 

I agree, but offensively Prato is better than him and has been two years running. Helman might be a tough call due to him being a SSS anomaly last year. But if Martin is not playing CF (he probably will be, it was just an observation about the usage at the end of last year) Keirsey would be ahead of him if CF is a need.

Martin has always had value because we presumed he'd play a key defensive position, first SS than CF. If he's playing neither, he probably doesn't have the bat to really get excited about. His draft pedigree should have long ago been a non-consideration.

[jorgenswest]

I sure hope the Twins aren’t seeing the final bench spot as a position battle. Bench isn’t a position. Castro and Vazquez give them the first line of depth they need around the diamond. Any further depth can be in St. Paul. 

They do have critical line up decisions to be made. Nothing is more critical than their line up against a right handed starting pitcher. If there is a battle to be won it is here. Let’s assume that Jeffers, Kirilloff, Julien, Correa, Lewis, Wallner, Buxton and Kepler are healthy and in that line up. Who is the best option for the 9th bat?

Polanco was traded opening that spot. The 2022 version of Gordon was pretty good against left handed pitching. He is gone. The four that seem to be roster certainties are Santana, Castro, Farmer and Vazquez. Any of these would be one of the poorer DH options against right handed pitching in baseball. Yes Santana was close to league average last year but look at the last three. It is folly to take last year’s numbers and project them to the next year. Castro? Over his career he has a .006 difference in platoon split with both in the 690s. Farmer has a career wRC+ of 76 against right handed pitching. The other choice is Vazquez.

The Twins don’t have a battle for the last spot. With the trade of Polanco they have a battle for a spot in the starting lineup against right handed pitching. It is a critical battle. Michael A Taylor doesn’t help in that battle at all.

 

[old nurse]

5 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

See, they both have an option still, so both Miranda and Larnach can start at St. Paul. It’s not a need to have to trade either right now.

 

Well, there is that hope for an upgrade in the starting rotation. spring training injuries on another team. Desperation to compete. They wee both top 100 prospects. Somebody could take that seriously. 

[stringer bell]

42 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

I sure hope the Twins aren’t seeing the final bench spot as a position battle. Bench isn’t a position. Castro and Vazquez give them the first line of depth they need around the diamond. Any further depth can be in St. Paul. 

They do have critical line up decisions to be made. Nothing is more critical than their line up against a right handed starting pitcher. If there is a battle to be won it is here. Let’s assume that Jeffers, Kirilloff, Julien, Correa, Lewis, Wallner, Buxton and Kepler are healthy and in that line up. Who is the best option for the 9th bat?

Polanco was traded opening that spot. The 2022 version of Gordon was pretty good against left handed pitching. He is gone. The four that seem to be roster certainties are Santana, Castro, Farmer and Vazquez. Any of these would be one of the poorer DH options against right handed pitching in baseball. Yes Santana was close to league average last year but look at the last three. It is folly to take last year’s numbers and project them to the next year. Castro? Over his career he has a .006 difference in platoon split with both in the 690s. Farmer has a career wRC+ of 76 against right handed pitching. The other choice is Vazquez.

The Twins don’t have a battle for the last spot. With the trade of Polanco they have a battle for a spot in the starting lineup against right handed pitching. It is a critical battle. Michael A Taylor doesn’t help in that battle at all.

 

Good point. The thought that is coming to me is that Carlos Santana has always been a full-time player and that he will be in the lineup against right handed pitching more often than not. I don't like that thought. As much as I don't like the idea of Trevor Larnach making the club with his lack of versatility and struggles to hit in almost 700 plate appearances, I'd rather see him as the "regular" DH against right handed pitching than see Santana try to squeeze out one more year of near-league average hitting against righties. Using Castro as a means to rest regulars by having them DH and rotating through as many as five positions makes some sense to me, but it would require for Willi to hit at least as well as he did last year. I wouldn't rule it out, but I don't think it should be Plan A.

I really don't want to see another veteran who may or may not be good enough to stay on the club for the entire season. Santana is more than enough for 2024, thank you. 

[PDX Twin]

6 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

I don't think they're handing Martin an opening day job. At best he's likely looking at a minimum of 2 weeks in St Paul to get an extra year of control. 

I'm pretty sure that I read on TD that the new CBA has eliminated that provision. If that's the case, then there would be no reason to delay him unless it's to give someone else a chance first.

[chpettit19]

10 minutes ago, PDX Twin said:

I'm pretty sure that I read on TD that the new CBA has eliminated that provision. If that's the case, then there would be no reason to delay him unless it's to give someone else a chance first.

The new CBA provides incentive to not keep top prospects down, but not someone like Martin. Rookie of the year, top MVP finishes in their first 3 years, or top Cy Young finishes in their first 3 years are what's needed. Teams still have motivation to send guys like Martin down for 2 weeks. 

[jkcarew]

I don’t think the favorite Larnach, either. I guess if the club doesn’t break down and sign MAT…AND Larnach tears it up in spring training? Still think it’s a most likely a right-handed bat with more defensive value and/or flexibility.