What’s Next for the Twins Following the Jorge Polanco Trade?

[Jeff K]

3 hours ago, miracleb said:

Pass on Pham....we have internal options for all position players....especially if we are looking to save money. (or not spend MORE money.)

Agreed and Solano is a MUCH better option.  I think Solano's contributions last year were somewhat underappreciated...just an opinion.  He provides depth at first base as well as elsewhere in the infield and I think he is an excellent, relatively inexpensive option.

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

A mid season trade will cost more.

Plus, this team has nailed the offseason trades while blowing the midseason trades (not blaming, I liked them at the time). Get a guy now and have him for 162 games.

Why would a 2 month rental cost more than an entire season?  Waiting until the deadline won't cost them making the playoffs.  If it does, the team is not worthy of the type expending the type of prospect capital to get a playoff caliber SP.   Waiting until the deadline is a risk reduction strategy which makes sense given the number of question marks for this team.  Why pay the cost until you know the investment makes sense given we don't need it until August / October?  Now, if they decide to expand the payroll to allow the acquisition of a good SP, sign me up.

[Jeff K]

1 hour ago, JD-TWINS said:

DeSclafani isn’t any sort of savior so expectations should be 4.50 ERA, if things go well …….hopefully, he’s able to stay healthy and at least get 120 innings in through the year. He’s not going to elevate into the middle of the rotation. The addition is to protect Varland’s innings total & particularly his stress level……….4.50 ERA is 3 runs in 6 innings as an average - workable & probably the expectation for Varland as well.

Tommy Pham and the other FA bats (Soler, Martinez, Belt???, etc.) don’t fit because Byron Buxton is on the Club. He’s gotta have room to DH up to 80 games this year to keep his bat in the line-up & to try & ensure he’s available in October. Need to get him in the line-up 75% of the time - that’s 40 games in CF - 40 games off or on IL - 80 games at DH. None of the guys above are affordable nor a fit. Pham is probably affordable but, to me, just isn’t good enough to consider.

Burnes on a 1 year rental ($15.6M) doesn’t seem prudent - then add the fact that they don’t need OF help makes it seem like a near impossibility to pull off.

Cease within the Division is distasteful since we’d be improving the ChiSox future. Can’t imagine coming together on a deal with them.

Still seems to me that Clevinger for 2 years - 2nd year as player option - at $16M is affordable and saves all trade assets for a potential move at the deadline, if needed.

Kepler was one of 4-5 guys in the game to hit .300 or better with 30 XBH or better after the Break last year. Gotta ride that into this season and try to extract a .250 BA with 22 plus HR & good defense in ‘24. Solid - not flashy.

Wallner - Buxton/Castro/Gordon - Kepler

Lewis - CC - Julien/Farmer - Kirilloff/(Miranda or Solano)

2 catchers

That’s the 13……..if anyone is added, they need to be competent in CF (they then could play corner OF as well) to displace Gordon.

I think they sign Solano as insurance at 1B and as a potential DH (Miranda has options) if Buxton gets hurt. Also, DHing Castro doesn’t work when Buxton is in CF because they will want Castro to be flexible to sub defensively & even as a late inning runner.

Regarding Varland, while the sample size was small, he appears to be a high end reliver vs. a 4/5 starter.  I would prefer to see him in critical relief roles rather than starting.  That's part of why I do like the Polanco trade.

[nicksaviking]

35 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

Why would a 2 month rental cost more than an entire season?  Waiting until the deadline won't cost them making the playoffs.  If it does, the team is not worthy of the type expending the type of prospect capital to get a playoff caliber SP.   Waiting until the deadline is a risk reduction strategy which makes sense given the number of question marks for this team.  Why pay the cost until you know the investment makes sense given we don't need it until August / October?

I have no interest in rental pitchers. Why would this team even bother with one? Then they'd have to do the exact same thing next year, and the year after and the year after. You'd be wasting way more prospect capital in the long run by chasing your tail like this, and your risk reduction strategy would be shot because you'd have to hit on the trade target every single year as opposed to hitting on it once.

And with the expanded playoffs, we've seen the pool of available players shrink significantly midseason. 

Also if the front office doesn't believe that this team would be a contender with the addition of a #2 pitcher now at the start of the season and has to wait until midseason to decide, than ownership needs to be looking for new people to run the show.

[big dog]

2 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

Right, that's the point though. None of us should be satisfied with just winning a sad AL Central. DeSclafani isn't going to win a game in the playoffs, and the Twins need a pitcher to replace Sonny Gray who will. They don't have that guy yet.

I'm betting that at least one of Ryan/Ober is better than Gray is this year, maybe both. Maybe Paddack as well. Will they be better than Gray last year? I don't know, but this offense could be a lot better.

[DJL44]

2 hours ago, TopGunn#22 said:

This is why I would like the Twins to take a flyer on Trevor Bauer. 

I keep waiting for the A's to sign Urias and Bauer. They don't have any fans to alienate.

[chpettit19]

2 hours ago, hitterscount said:

The starting pitching, as of today, is not where it needs to be. DeSclafani is a #5 at best. I posted earlier that Varland should be able to take his spot in the rotation coming out of spring training, if not that is very concerning on his potential. 

What will the rotation look like if Paddock gets shut down, Ober and/or Ryan begin to struggle later in the season and we are running out DeSClafani and Varland, the pitcher that couldn't beat him out for 40% of our starts. That is not a playoff winning rotation. 

I am more comfortable with the position players. They should have looked at Hoskins, but that ship has sailed. All focus and resources should be on replacing Gray with another quality arm.   

I agree with your general stance here on the pitching, but to be fair to Varland it likely isn't possible for him to beat out DeSclafani no matter how well he pitches in spring. Much like Ober last year, Varland having options puts him at a nearly impossible to overcome disadvantage for the rotation. His only real shot at the rotation (unless more moves are made) is that the team puts DeSclafani in a long role in the pen. I'd guess that is not their plan, and has a very small chance of happening. All this to say that it's not as straight forward as Varland "couldn't beat out" DeSclafani. Varland is likely already pegged for the #6 starter spot starting the year in St Paul right now. Especially because they added another reliever so he's less likely to get sent there to start the year. It's not just a straight "who performs/looks better in spring" competition between those 2.

[nicksaviking]

6 minutes ago, big dog said:

I'm betting that at least one of Ryan/Ober is better than Gray is this year, maybe both. Maybe Paddack as well. Will they be better than Gray last year? I don't know, but this offense could be a lot better.

Better than Gray last year? That's a really high bar.

And even so, go get someone who's more likely than them to be a front line starter, and then if Ryan/Ober/Paddack turn out to be as well, you're just that much better off. The good teams don't sit on their laurels and hope for the young pitchers to develop, they continually trade for and sign top of the rotation arms pushing the already good arms down the pecking order.

[thelanges5]

How about Duvall and Lorenzen with our "surplus" from the Polanco deal? I would consider anything done with that $$ to be part of the trade. We'd likely still be in the $125-130 mil range.

[nicksaviking]

Just now, thelanges5 said:

How about Duvall and Lorenzen with our "surplus" from the Polanco deal? I would consider anything done with that $$ to be part of the trade. We'd likely still be in the $125-130 mil range.

I have no interest in Duvall, but at least I can see why some do.

But Lorenzen, and his ungodly 13% K rate? No way, he's just flat out awful. Small sample size hero like Dallas Keuchel. He doesn't make the rotation better in any way.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, Johnny Ringo said:

The only time Falvey is interviewed is with one of the Twins friendlies who serve up more softballs than Jenny Lynch.

Jennie Finch. You had a good setup but didn't stick the landing on that one.

1 hour ago, stringer bell said:

As far as a playoff starting pitcher, I don't see them competing to get Cease, Burnes or any other top starter, certainly without a TV deal.  Maybe they can find an undervalued asset from a bad team or someone coming off an injury, but not someone who was healthy and productive last year.

Kershaw should be ready mid-season. He's a great fit but he probably wants to play for the Dodgers or Rangers.

[DJL44]

37 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

Why would a 2 month rental cost more than an entire season? 

Scarcity. There are always more players than roster spots to begin a season. By the deadline 20% of the players are injured. Then you have to hope a bad team has the player you want on their roster.

I feel good about one of the young players figuring it out by the trade deadline. They need the bench bat for April, May and June to allow Martin, Miranda, Severino, Lee and Larnach to develop in AAA.

[Linus]

1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

I have no interest in rental pitchers. Why would this team even bother with one? Then they'd have to do the exact same thing next year, and the year after and the year after. You'd be wasting way more prospect capital in the long run by chasing your tail like this, and your risk reduction strategy would be shot because you'd have to hit on the trade target every single year as opposed to hitting on it once.

And with the expanded playoffs, we've seen the pool of available players shrink significantly midseason. 

Also if the front office doesn't believe that this team would be a contender with the addition of a #2 pitcher now at the start of the season and has to wait until midseason to decide, than ownership needs to be looking for new people to run the show.

Can’t like this enough. 

[big dog]

56 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Better than Gray last year? That's a really high bar.

And even so, go get someone who's more likely than them to be a front line starter, and then if Ryan/Ober/Paddack turn out to be as well, you're just that much better off. The good teams don't sit on their laurels and hope for the young pitchers to develop, they continually trade for and sign top of the rotation arms pushing the already good arms down the pecking order.

Agreed. But that's where the whole money thing comes in.

I completely agree that it is both possible and desirable to have a better pitching staff than what they currently have. But what they have is pretty good, and might be really good in a playoff where you rely on 3 guys, maybe 4. Do I want to give up a few really good position players who could help us this year to get one better pitcher? Mahle has scarred me. I don't think I'm desperate enough to do that.

[nicksaviking]

3 hours ago, big dog said:

Agreed. But that's where the whole money thing comes in.

I completely agree that it is both possible and desirable to have a better pitching staff than what they currently have. But what they have is pretty good, and might be really good in a playoff where you rely on 3 guys, maybe 4. Do I want to give up a few really good position players who could help us this year to get one better pitcher? Mahle has scarred me. I don't think I'm desperate enough to do that.

When the front office starts to get frightened of trading prospects for controllable top end MLB players, that's when it's time to replace them.

But Mahle was a midseason trade when there were only three options available, there are more options in the offseason. Additionally, midseason trades are far more likely to pay off for the sellers. The less information the other team has on your prospects, the better off your bargaining position is. At midseason the players are that much closer to the majors and the scouts have that much more data on them. Your team's insight into their strengths, weaknesses and makeup is that much more dragged from the shadows.

I mean if the Twins make that trade in the offseason instead of midseason, who's headlining that deal? Austin Martin? Trever Larnach? Spencer Steer probably barley crosses the Reds radar.

[Dman]

2 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

 

Also if the front office doesn't believe that this team would be a contender with the addition of a #2 pitcher now at the start of the season and has to wait until midseason to decide, than ownership needs to be looking for new people to run the show.

I guess I don't get this line of thinking at all.  There is no way to know how any season will turn out. Injuries and regression kill potential playoff teams every year.

Pablo goes down early in the season and even if you got that number 2 you are probably sunk in the playoffs.  Not to mention Lewis, Buxton, Kirriloff are injury prone.  You have rookies in Wallner and Jullien who preformed well in SSS, but were protected against lefties so no idea how they will fare this coming year. There are question marks all over this team so banking on being a contender is impossible to know until the season unfolds.  I mean every team is a contender opening day until things play out and every team would like another number 2 arm to start the season.

We all want a top of the rotation pitcher but what trades have been worked out for one this year?  Even the Orioles with prospects to burn haven't paid the cost to get "a guy".  I think the people running the show are doing the best they can given the parameters\money they have.  Every team wants a number 2 it's just not that easy to get deals done.

 

[Fatbat]

Was Falveys comment about the biggest need now might be a bat a backhanded slight of polanco? As in everything but his bat is easily replaceable ? 

[tony&rodney]

3 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

I agree with your general stance here on the pitching, but to be fair to Varland it likely isn't possible for him to beat out DeSclafani no matter how well he pitches in spring. Much like Ober last year, Varland having options puts him at a nearly impossible to overcome disadvantage for the rotation. His only real shot at the rotation (unless more moves are made) is that the team puts DeSclafani in a long role in the pen. I'd guess that is not their plan, and has a very small chance of happening. All this to say that it's not as straight forward as Varland "couldn't beat out" DeSclafani. Varland is likely already pegged for the #6 starter spot starting the year in St Paul right now. Especially because they added another reliever so he's less likely to get sent there to start the year. It's not just a straight "who performs/looks better in spring" competition between those 2.

This scenario is why the recently completed trade could potentially cost the Twins way more than imagined. We shall hope for the best but only DeScla's prior MLB experience puts him above #8 in the Twins system as a starting pitcher. Have pitchers come back and had brief flurries of decent pitching? Yes. Chris Archer and Dylan Bundy,  they both had good days. San Francisco was very eager to move DeSclafani and Dipoto worked ceaselessly to move him as well. A good back end starting pitcher is not usually shuffled along so eagerly. Hey, maybe the Twins get wonderful innings from DeSclafani but the idea of pushing Varland or even Simeon Woods Richardson aside seems far from the notion discussed and written about all offseason of adding someone like Burnes, Luzardo, a Seattle top five starter, or others who might have slotted in behind Pablo Lopez. 

I think folks are beginning to see that the financial issues first noted last November are actually a thing. I'm wondering if the Twins might still trade Max Kepler and/or Kyle Farmer. It would sure help the crunch and give some players that people have talked about a chance to play, such as Larnach, Gordon, and Martin.

[Riverbrian]

26 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

This scenario is why the recently completed trade could potentially cost the Twins way more than imagined. We shall hope for the best but only DeScla's prior MLB experience puts him above #8 in the Twins system as a starting pitcher. Have pitchers come back and had brief flurries of decent pitching? Yes. Chris Archer and Dylan Bundy,  they both had good days. San Francisco was very eager to move DeSclafani and Dipoto worked ceaselessly to move him as well. A good back end starting pitcher is not usually shuffled along so eagerly. Hey, maybe the Twins get wonderful innings from DeSclafani but the idea of pushing Varland or even Simeon Woods Richardson aside seems far from the notion discussed and written about all offseason of adding someone like Burnes, Luzardo, a Seattle top five starter, or others who might have slotted in behind Pablo Lopez. 

I think folks are beginning to see that the financial issues first noted last November are actually a thing. I'm wondering if the Twins might still trade Max Kepler and/or Kyle Farmer. It would sure help the crunch and give some players that people have talked about a chance to play, such as Larnach, Gordon, and Martin.

Yep... You and chpettit (I think I should just start calling him Chia Pet) are discussing perhaps my primary concern with this deal. Well... maybe not primary because I still worry about replacing Jorge's bat. 

I wasn't sure how the Twins were going to address the replacement of Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda but whatever the plan was... no matter how hard the plan maybe to execute... I only had one wish in regards to the rotation. 

No inning eaters. I just looked up inning eaters in the encyclopedia and there was a picture of DeSclafini.

A picture of a pitcher if you will. 

His presence on the 26 man roster likely knocks a young pitcher with options down a peg because they have options and I totally understand that you must have some depth stored. 

Bottom Line... If they are going with an innings eater... Well... then just throw a variety of kids off the farm instead. They will probably produce similar numbers but they get experience and they can be easily sent back down if they don't get the job done...  and who knows... you might get lucky and find out that one of them is the next Bailey Ober. 

I would rather they just roll with what they have... rather than add a below average vet. 

[chpettit19]

23 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Yep... You and chpettit (I think I should just start calling him Chia Pet) are discussing perhaps my primary concern with this deal. Well... maybe not primary because I still worry about replacing Jorge's bat. 

I wasn't sure how the Twins were going to address the replacement of Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda but whatever the plan was... no matter how hard the plan maybe to execute... I only had one wish in regards to the rotation. 

No inning eaters. I just looked up inning eaters in the encyclopedia and there was a picture of DeSclafini.

A picture of a pitcher if you will. 

His presence on the 26 man roster likely knocks a young pitcher with options down a peg because they have options and I totally understand that you must have some depth stored. 

Bottom Line... If they are going with an innings eater... Well... then just throw a variety of kids off the farm instead. They will probably produce similar numbers but they get experience and they can be easily sent back down if they don't get the job done...  and who knows... you might get lucky and find out that one of them is the next Bailey Ober. 

I would rather they just roll with what they have... rather than add a below average vet. 

(I think I should just start calling him Chia Pet)...You wouldn't be the first one! But it was more fitting when I had hair.

[Jocko87]

18 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

 

I would rather they just roll with what they have... rather than add a below average vet. 

I think this is where I'm at too. I'm listening to Whit Merrifield on the MLB Radio and it occurred to me that he would be a good fit.  Not enough bat for me but honestly he's probably the type of guys we should be prepared for.

I'd rather let Miranda and Martin try to fill that production if that's the level we are playing at.  Soler is probably the bat I'd be interested in, I can hold my nose for 50 starts in left if he mashes.

[Riverbrian]

8 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

I think this is where I'm at too. I'm listening to Whit Merrifield on the MLB Radio and it occurred to me that he would be a good fit.  Not enough bat for me but honestly he's probably the type of guys we should be prepared for.

I'd rather let Miranda and Martin try to fill that production if that's the level we are playing at.  Soler is probably the bat I'd be interested in, I can hold my nose for 50 starts in left if he mashes.

Pitching and Hitting... I feel the same. 

Depth is Depth... It's important and now that we have it... adding another depth piece doesn't move the needle. It's just a trading of names and uniform numbers. 

I've waited a long time for the depth we have and I'm excited about it... Now that we have it... add the needle movers. 

 

[Fatbat]

🍿👈🏻🤡 just enjoying the dialog

[Johnny Ringo]

6 hours ago, stringer bell said:

You took the words out of my mouth until the part of your post that I quoted. What good does it do for the Twins to reveal more to the public about "the state of Twins nation"? Will it sell more tickets? Allow the clubs to get a better TV deal or acquire better players? 

Yes, I'd like to know more, to be an insider on future moves, but IMHO it doesn't serve the team to publicize what they might do, hence they do not reveal these things. 

I hardly meant to suggest that the Twins should discuss potentially trading Player A or Prospect B for Player C.  Nonetheless, I do think there are a zillion topics that could be socialized responsibly. If nothing else, communication can be used to galvanize Twins nation which is dying to be loved.

Analytics are broadly misunderstood and even more broadly maligned.  The RSN implosion and the attendant payroll effects has created confusion and backlash. What are the implications for the change in the playoff format to team construction and philosophy?  I could go on and on. 

The Twins often complain that fans don't love them like they should. Radio silence doesn't help their cause. 

[Major League Ready]

5 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

I have no interest in rental pitchers. Why would this team even bother with one? Then they'd have to do the exact same thing next year, and the year after and the year after. You'd be wasting way more prospect capital in the long run by chasing your tail like this, and your risk reduction strategy would be shot because you'd have to hit on the trade target every single year as opposed to hitting on it once.

And with the expanded playoffs, we've seen the pool of available players shrink significantly midseason. 

Also if the front office doesn't believe that this team would be a contender with the addition of a #2 pitcher now at the start of the season and has to wait until midseason to decide, than ownership needs to be looking for new people to run the show.

We just disagree on this one.  If we agree that a playoff caliber SP is not the difference in them making the playoffs, and we further agree that they have a lot of question marks, then leveraging the future before it is necessary to expend that capital is horrible asset management.  The authority to make such decisions is taken from management with this sort of disregard for risk mitigation in mt experience.  

The ask on available SPs has negated team's desire for trade for top at SPs this off-season.  Teams have been unwilling to pay the ask for SPs like Burns and Cease.  Those guys will be available at the deadline.  Has anyone traded for a font line starter this off-season?  Do you think more or less "playoff caliber" SPs will be traded at the deadline?

[Johnny Ringo]

5 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Jennie Finch. You had a good setup but didn't stick the landing on that one.

Kershaw should be ready mid-season. He's a great fit but he probably wants to play for the Dodgers or Rangers.

My softball cred is shaky at best. 

[CoachDW]

Reportedly, the Twins picked up $8 million dollars in the deal with Seattle. Use that money to sign FA starter Mike Clevinger to a one-year, $10 - $11 million dollar deal. By signing him, you get a solid starting pitcher and lose no prospects in having to trade for a starter, and Clevinger can give the Twins 125 - 150 very effective innings. He is coming off a 3.3 WAR campaign with a 3.77 ERA in 24 starts & 131 innings last year. The Twins need another guy who takes the ball every fifth day, and that's exactly what they'll get with Clevinger. Since Paddack is coming back from injury, it is unknown how many frames that he will be able to throw, and the same goes for DeSclafani ( and there is no telling how effective he will be). Adding Clevinger to a rotation of Lopez, Ober, Ryan, and a mixture of Paddack/Varland/DeSclafani would go a long way to making me feel much more comfortable with the starting staff heading into the 2024 season. 

[Dman]

1 hour ago, Riverbrian said:

Yep... You and chpettit (I think I should just start calling him Chia Pet) are discussing perhaps my primary concern with this deal. Well... maybe not primary because I still worry about replacing Jorge's bat. 

I wasn't sure how the Twins were going to address the replacement of Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda but whatever the plan was... no matter how hard the plan maybe to execute... I only had one wish in regards to the rotation. 

No inning eaters. I just looked up inning eaters in the encyclopedia and there was a picture of DeSclafini.

A picture of a pitcher if you will. 

His presence on the 26 man roster likely knocks a young pitcher with options down a peg because they have options and I totally understand that you must have some depth stored. 

Bottom Line... If they are going with an innings eater... Well... then just throw a variety of kids off the farm instead. They will probably produce similar numbers but they get experience and they can be easily sent back down if they don't get the job done...  and who knows... you might get lucky and find out that one of them is the next Bailey Ober. 

I would rather they just roll with what they have... rather than add a below average vet. 

I think pretty much this whole board felt the same way.  Descla isn't the type of pitcher needed to take the next step.  No one wanted just another 5th starter and even less an injury prone one.  The offseason isn't over so still a chance things change although those odds seem very remote.  The only hope now is that if the team performs well maybe they get the guy we were hoping for at the deadline.

[Reptevia]

It sounds like Seattle enquired about Kepler, but were rebuffed. Could we have gotten one of their younger/better starters for a package?  We’ll probably never know. 

[ashbury]

DeSclafani spent time on the IL in 2023 for both elbow and shoulder ailments.  The odds of him getting through 2024 without a recurrence of either are, well, low.  Another pitching move is required.  If none is coming, my view of the Polanco trade goes down fast.