Late in the off-season…time for high-end, discount shopping?

[AlwaysinModeration]

Just reviewing the last four off-seasons, the Twins Front Office has been active late in each of the off-seasons at the top end of the market.  And by waiting the market out, they’ve gotten some deals:

1/22/20:  Signed Josh Donaldson for 5 years, $92mm.  JD was the #5 free agent that off-season on MLBTradeRumors, predicted to get 3 years, $75mm.  Twins got him for a 26% mark-down annually.

1/31/21:  Sign Andrelton Simmons for 1 year, $10.5mm.  This wasn’t a big splash, as Simmons was #17 free agent, projected to go for $12mm.  But in waiting, the Twins got a 12.5% discount.

3/22/22: Sign Carlos Correa for 3 years, $105mm, with first year opt out.  Correa was the #1 free agent that winter, projected to sign for a 10 years, $320mm.  Twins’ patience landed them the top free agent in the class for a whopping 64% less than his projected total price tag.

1/11/23: Sign Carlos Correa for 6 years, $200mm.  After exercising his opt-out, Correa fell to the #2 free agent the next offseason. projected to get 9 years, $288mm.  This time the Twins didn’t wait nearly as long as in the previous years, signing him in early January—but they did have to wait for two teams to bail on deals over his physical.  Still, the Twins managed to save 30% off the projected retail.

It’s now late January, with pitchers and catchers reporting in less than two weeks.  And there are still several big names out there.  Could the Twins strike at the top end of the market again?

#2 Free Agent (according to MLBTR), Cody Bellinger, predicted to get 12 years, $264mm..

#4 Free Agent, Blake Snell, predicted to get 7 years, $200mm.

#6 Jordan Montgomery, projected at 6 years, $150mm

#7, Matt Chapman, projected at 6 years, $150mm

#16, Jorge Soler, projected for 3 years, $45mm.

#20, JD Martinez, projected at 2 years, $40mm.

History would indicate that the Twins will sign one of these six guys before they break camp, and more than likely, they’ll sign him for a bargain rate.

Who’s it going to be?

Soler or Martinez seem like better bets.  But could the Twins pull another last-minute surprise by signing Bellinger or Montgomery?

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

27 minutes ago, AlwaysinModeration said:

Just reviewing the last four off-seasons, the Twins Front Office has been active late in each of the off-seasons at the top end of the market.  And by waiting the market out, they’ve gotten some deals:

1/22/20:  Signed Josh Donaldson for 5 years, $92mm.  JD was the #5 free agent that off-season on MLBTradeRumors, predicted to get 3 years, $75mm.  Twins got him for a 26% mark-down annually.

1/31/21:  Sign Andrelton Simmons for 1 year, $10.5mm.  This wasn’t a big splash, as Simmons was #17 free agent, projected to go for $12mm.  But in waiting, the Twins got a 12.5% discount.

3/22/22: Sign Carlos Correa for 3 years, $105mm, with first year opt out.  Correa was the #1 free agent that winter, projected to sign for a 10 years, $320mm.  Twins’ patience landed them the top free agent in the class for a whopping 64% less than his projected total price tag.

1/11/23: Sign Carlos Correa for 6 years, $200mm.  After exercising his opt-out, Correa fell to the #2 free agent the next offseason. projected to get 9 years, $288mm.  This time the Twins didn’t wait nearly as long as in the previous years, signing him in early January—but they did have to wait for two teams to bail on deals over his physical.  Still, the Twins managed to save 30% off the projected retail.

It’s now late January, with pitchers and catchers reporting in less than two weeks.  And there are still several big names out there.  Could the Twins strike at the top end of the market again?

#2 Free Agent (according to MLBTR), Cody Bellinger, predicted to get 12 years, $264mm..

#4 Free Agent, Blake Snell, predicted to get 7 years, $200mm.

#6 Jordan Montgomery, projected at 6 years, $150mm

#7, Matt Chapman, projected at 6 years, $150mm

#16, Jorge Soler, projected for 3 years, $45mm.

#20, JD Martinez, projected at 2 years, $40mm.

History would indicate that the Twins will sign one of these six guys before they break camp, and more than likely, they’ll sign him for a bargain rate.

Who’s it going to be?

Soler or Martinez seem like better bets.  But could the Twins pull another last-minute surprise by signing Bellinger or Montgomery?

So, Falvey had some comments about reallocating the money that they saved by trading Polanco. I don't necessarily but a lot of stock into what he says because he has been very good at saying a ton of words but at the same time, saying nothing at all. To go along with your post though, yeah, they might be able to pull off a surprise. Wouldn't sleep on a Boras client signing a deal similar to what Correa signed in 2022. We shall see soon enough.

[snellman]

1 hour ago, Twins_Fan_in_NJ said:

So, Falvey had some comments about reallocating the money that they saved by trading Polanco. I don't necessarily but a lot of stock into what he says because he has been very good at saying a ton of words but at the same time, saying nothing at all. To go along with your post though, yeah, they might be able to pull off a surprise. Wouldn't sleep on a Boras client signing a deal similar to what Correa signed in 2022. We shall see soon enough.

That would not surprise me.  The front office seems to have a pretty good relationship with Boras (which is a good thing because he has a lot of clients on the roster) and as we get closer to spring training they may be able to work out a shorter term deal.

[FilthyMogwai]

2 hours ago, AlwaysinModeration said:

Just reviewing the last four off-seasons, the Twins Front Office has been active late in each of the off-seasons at the top end of the market.  And by waiting the market out, they’ve gotten some deals:

1/22/20:  Signed Josh Donaldson for 5 years, $92mm.  JD was the #5 free agent that off-season on MLBTradeRumors, predicted to get 3 years, $75mm.  Twins got him for a 26% mark-down annually.

1/31/21:  Sign Andrelton Simmons for 1 year, $10.5mm.  This wasn’t a big splash, as Simmons was #17 free agent, projected to go for $12mm.  But in waiting, the Twins got a 12.5% discount.

3/22/22: Sign Carlos Correa for 3 years, $105mm, with first year opt out.  Correa was the #1 free agent that winter, projected to sign for a 10 years, $320mm.  Twins’ patience landed them the top free agent in the class for a whopping 64% less than his projected total price tag.

1/11/23: Sign Carlos Correa for 6 years, $200mm.  After exercising his opt-out, Correa fell to the #2 free agent the next offseason. projected to get 9 years, $288mm.  This time the Twins didn’t wait nearly as long as in the previous years, signing him in early January—but they did have to wait for two teams to bail on deals over his physical.  Still, the Twins managed to save 30% off the projected retail.

It’s now late January, with pitchers and catchers reporting in less than two weeks.  And there are still several big names out there.  Could the Twins strike at the top end of the market again?

#2 Free Agent (according to MLBTR), Cody Bellinger, predicted to get 12 years, $264mm..

#4 Free Agent, Blake Snell, predicted to get 7 years, $200mm.

#6 Jordan Montgomery, projected at 6 years, $150mm

#7, Matt Chapman, projected at 6 years, $150mm

#16, Jorge Soler, projected for 3 years, $45mm.

#20, JD Martinez, projected at 2 years, $40mm.

History would indicate that the Twins will sign one of these six guys before they break camp, and more than likely, they’ll sign him for a bargain rate.

Who’s it going to be?

Soler or Martinez seem like better bets.  But could the Twins pull another last-minute surprise by signing Bellinger or Montgomery?

I don't think Bellinger is finding quite the market that he had hoped and I'd be willing to bet it's because of his up and down career. Possibly the same for Snell.

A one year "prove it" contract makes a lot of sense for Belli. And the Twins are the perfect team to do that. Having said that, I don't see it happening.

 

[nicksaviking]

On 1/30/2024 at 7:08 AM, AlwaysinModeration said:

 

#2 Free Agent (according to MLBTR), Cody Bellinger, predicted to get 12 years, $264mm..

-Yuck, 12 years for a guy who had one good season after two terrible  seasons. Not even if it was 10M per year and five years.

#4 Free Agent, Blake Snell, predicted to get 7 years, $200mm.

-Snell has terrible control and he pays for it every other year. Not interested

#6 Jordan Montgomery, projected at 6 years, $150mm

-Maybe at 4 years, but he doesn't miss bats, he's not exactly what you want in a #2.

#7, Matt Chapman, projected at 6 years, $150mm

-Not a fit and he's a shell of himself from his first four seasons. 

#16, Jorge Soler, projected for 3 years, $45mm.

-Too unpredictable. I don't like contract year comeback seasons either

#20, JD Martinez, projected at 2 years, $40mm.

-K% jumped to 31%!?!? last year? That's a bad omen and awful fit for this lineup

I have zero interest in the team saving money, but I don't want them to spend money just to spend money. If they can't trade for another front line controllable starter, just stand pat. Don't add players just to appease the fans.

[AlwaysinModeration]

3 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

I have zero interest in the team saving money, but I don't want them to spend money just to spend money. If they can't trade for another front line controllable starter, just stand pat. Don't add players because to appease the fans.

You don’t want the Twins to sign a two-time Cy Young winner?

[nicksaviking]

18 minutes ago, AlwaysinModeration said:

You don’t want the Twins to sign a two-time Cy Young winner?

Snell no?

Unless he's taking a two year deal. Major control issues and injury concerns. I'm not locking up a roster sport for what a guy did yesterday, I want someone I can believe in for the foreseeable future, and it's definitely not him.

[Dman]

I don't see any multi year deals for the Twins this late as they are likely hunting one year deals. I think they will want to keep payroll flexible in future years here to counter arb raises and to have money for extensions.  We'll see what happens.  

[AlwaysinModeration]

21 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Snell no?

Unless he's taking a two year deal. Major control issues and injury concerns. I'm not locking up a roster sport for what a guy did yesterday, I want someone I can believe in for the foreseeable future, and it's definitely not him.

Pretty high bar you got there!

[Brock Beauchamp]

There’s almost a zero percent chance the Twins outbid the Cubs for Bellinger. The Cubs have both money and need. 

[sweetmusicviola16]

I'd like Montgomery at a discounted rate, with options and player opt outs built in.

[nicksaviking]

14 minutes ago, AlwaysinModeration said:

Pretty high bar you got there!

I don't think so. I know others like him, but Blake Snell getting a long term deal sounds like group think.

Looking at starting pitchers with a BB% higher than Snell's this century, the biggest names I find are Tyler Chatwood, Michael Kopich, Daniel Cabrera, Kerry Wood and Daisuke Matsuzaka. Either via performance or injury, all were done as starters by the time they were 31. 

Snell will beat that mark, but anyone banking on him into his mid to late 30s has got a rude awakening coming.

[nicksaviking]

10 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

There’s almost a zero percent chance the Twins outbid the Cubs for Bellinger. The Cubs have both money and need. 

I'd love for the Cubs not have have learned from the Jason Heyward faux renaissance.

[FilthyMogwai]

24 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

I don't think so. I know others like him, but Blake Snell getting a long term deal sounds like group think.

Looking at starting pitchers with a BB% higher than Snell's this century, the biggest names I find are Tyler Chatwood, Michael Kopich, Daniel Cabrera, Kerry Wood and Daisuke Matsuzaka. Either via performance or injury, all were done as starters by the time they were 31. 

Snell will beat that mark, but anyone banking on him into his mid to late 30s has got a rude awakening coming.

Agreed. Additionally, he's been up and down ... not only from season to season, but within seasons as well. 

Going into a start on May 25th last year, a Cy Young season,  he was sporting a 5.40 ERA. Nearly 1/3 of the season down.  You don't have any idea what you're going to get with him. And he'll be paid like one of the game's elite arms. 

Also, historically he's been a 5 to 5 2/3 innings pitcher. Which, I suppose, doesn't mean what it used to.

And let's not forget those 99 walks. If not for a nearly impossible to repeat 5.8 hits per 9, his WHIP and ERA would be much higher. In fact, his 2.25 ERA was nearly 1.2 runs per 9 better than his FIP. Major regression candidate. 

But when we're talking about a guy that's asking $270M over 9 years? No way.

He may still be decent or even good next year, but the risk is higher than most pitchers in that tier and there's a chance he just implodes too.

[cmoss84]

I like Snell against our division. But I agree...would not sign him long term unless it is something like 4/100. Which is doubtful.

[RpR]

6 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

I have zero interest in the team saving money, but I don't want them to spend money just to spend money. If they can't trade for another front line controllable starter, just stand pat. Don't add players because to appease the fans.

LOL, yeah who needs the fans when their money  is why the team is here -- good grief!

OF COURSE, then one hopes they pay little attention to most of the -- can the vets, rookies are a miracle cure, also.

[DJL44]

They don't have any interest in Chapman. Royce Lewis is their 3B.

[nicksaviking]

15 minutes ago, RpR said:

LOL, yeah who needs the fans when their money  is why the team is here -- good grief!

OF COURSE, then one hopes they pay little attention to most of the -- can the vets, rookies are a miracle cure, also.

Well I'd rather they listen to fans when they say they want lower ticket prices or a functional and affordable TV broadcasting situation. They don't listen to fans when they say they want Ohtani. 

But they should 'listen to fans' when it's a cheap meaningless has-been who'll waste a roster space? Just to appease them? Makes sense.

[jorgenswest]

JD Martinez would be a good fit in the middle of the order. I think he would bring what Nelson Cruz brought to the plate and the clubhouse. 

[Parfigliano]

10 hours ago, AlwaysinModeration said:

Just reviewing the last four off-seasons, the Twins Front Office has been active late in each of the off-seasons at the top end of the market.  And by waiting the market out, they’ve gotten some deals:

1/22/20:  Signed Josh Donaldson for 5 years, $92mm.  JD was the #5 free agent that off-season on MLBTradeRumors, predicted to get 3 years, $75mm.  Twins got him for a 26% mark-down annually.

1/31/21:  Sign Andrelton Simmons for 1 year, $10.5mm.  This wasn’t a big splash, as Simmons was #17 free agent, projected to go for $12mm.  But in waiting, the Twins got a 12.5% discount.

3/22/22: Sign Carlos Correa for 3 years, $105mm, with first year opt out.  Correa was the #1 free agent that winter, projected to sign for a 10 years, $320mm.  Twins’ patience landed them the top free agent in the class for a whopping 64% less than his projected total price tag.

1/11/23: Sign Carlos Correa for 6 years, $200mm.  After exercising his opt-out, Correa fell to the #2 free agent the next offseason. projected to get 9 years, $288mm.  This time the Twins didn’t wait nearly as long as in the previous years, signing him in early January—but they did have to wait for two teams to bail on deals over his physical.  Still, the Twins managed to save 30% off the projected retail.

It’s now late January, with pitchers and catchers reporting in less than two weeks.  And there are still several big names out there.  Could the Twins strike at the top end of the market again?

#2 Free Agent (according to MLBTR), Cody Bellinger, predicted to get 12 years, $264mm..

#4 Free Agent, Blake Snell, predicted to get 7 years, $200mm.

#6 Jordan Montgomery, projected at 6 years, $150mm

#7, Matt Chapman, projected at 6 years, $150mm

#16, Jorge Soler, projected for 3 years, $45mm.

#20, JD Martinez, projected at 2 years, $40mm.

History would indicate that the Twins will sign one of these six guys before they break camp, and more than likely, they’ll sign him for a bargain rate.

Who’s it going to be?

Soler or Martinez seem like better bets.  But could the Twins pull another last-minute surprise by signing Bellinger or Montgomery?

If Bellinger thinks he's getting a 12 year contract he should be drug tested.  Immediately.

[Jocko87]

You are correct that they will likely get a nice late add but you are probably shopping in the wrong aisle.

Old friends MAT, Donnie Barrels or CJ Cron are far more likely than any listed.  

[Mike Sixel]

44 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

JD Martinez would be a good fit in the middle of the order. I think he would bring what Nelson Cruz brought to the plate and the clubhouse. 

Not one projection system likes him even close to that much.....Cruz was pretty amazing here. 

[nicksaviking]

31 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Not one projection system likes him even close to that much.....Cruz was pretty amazing here. 

Martinez’s K% skyrocketed to 31% last year too. I’m not sure what changed with him, but it’s not a good fit.

[jorgenswest]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

Not one projection system likes him even close to that much.....Cruz was pretty amazing here. 

Cruz wasn’t projected to be Cruz either. His work caring for his body defied projection. Martinez and his work ethic has been a theme with every one of his teams. Cruz made an all star just once before age 30 and 6 after age 30. Martinez has one before and five after so far. I wonder if Martinez is also defying projection. He certainly did last year with his .893 OPS.

 

[tony&rodney]

I'm really curious about the comments that suggest the Twins may sign a free agent to a big contract Do people really believe that will occur?

I took Falvey saying the Twins will allocate the savings on dumping Polanco as there will be a signing for around $5-8 million. But hey if the Twins sign Bellinger and Snell it is fine with me.

[RaoulDuke]

Saw a rumor that a mystery team had appeared for Soler.  He could be a good fit here, big RH power that can slot into DH and some OF.  Not sure if they will want to meet the asking price but they haven't strayed away from big power with contact issues. 

Martinez is kinda the same boat but older and DH only.

Montgomery would be awesome but saving 5 mil on Polanco isn't going to suddenly let them sign someone to 20+ million a year.

As someone else said a reunion with one of Solano/ Taylor/ Cron seems the most likely.  Cron had a couple real nice years in Coors before coming back to earth last year. 

[nicksaviking]

38 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

Cruz wasn’t projected to be Cruz either. His work caring for his body defied projection. Martinez and his work ethic has been a theme with every one of his teams. Cruz made an all star just once before age 30 and 6 after age 30. Martinez has one before and five after so far. I wonder if Martinez is also defying projection. He certainly did last year with his .893 OPS.

 

While going from a 24% K rate to a 31% K rate. I don't know how that's possible with a veteran like him. It's insane and a giant red flag, and anyone who watched the Twins last year knows that more strikeouts is the last thing this team needs.

Plus, I think they need to avoid plugging up the DH spot as much as possible. 

[nicksaviking]

5 minutes ago, RaoulDuke said:

Saw a rumor that a mystery team had appeared for Soler.  He could be a good fit here, big RH power that can slot into DH and some OF.  Not sure if they will want to meet the asking price but they haven't strayed away from big power with contact issues. 

I don't want Solar, but if I'm honest, my justification for not wanting him isn't as strong as it is for every other offensive player. It basically boils down to never trusting a contract year bounce back player and why are his strikeout numbers so wildly inconsistent?

[AstrosTwins]

5 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

Snell no?

Unless he's taking a two year deal. Major control issues and injury concerns. I'm not locking up a roster sport for what a guy did yesterday, I want someone I can believe in for the foreseeable future, and it's definitely not him.

Not that my opinion matters, but I agree with you. Snell’s season last year was an anomaly.

[AstrosTwins]

2 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

JD Martinez would be a good fit in the middle of the order. I think he would bring what Nelson Cruz brought to the plate and the clubhouse. 

I don’t think this is a bad idea either. The only issue I foresee is when Buxton’s knee takes him out of center field. Then what? He will have to DH and JDM isn’t a quality outfielder anymore. 
 

I’m not holding my breath with Buxton. Personally, I’m done with him and think the Twins would be best served to move on. I hope Buxton pleasantly surprises me and makes me eat those words.