What Can the Twins Steal in 2024?

[Ted Schwerzler]

A year ago, the Minnesota Twins got off to a slow start when it came to swiping bags, and they never exactly became a track team. With the running game more important than it's been in decades, how can they get better in that area for the year ahead?

Image courtesy of © Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports

A month or so into the 2023 season, Rocco Baldelli could have looked at the major-league leaderboard for stolen bases, and he wouldn’t have seen any of his players on it. Despite rules that actively encourage steals, the Minnesota Twins all but opted against participating.

Pitchers faced new limits on how many times they could check on a runner by stepping off the rubber. Baserunners were given additional inches on the edges of bases, and pitch clocks provided an external countdown for when to get a jump. Still, the Twins stood pat for the first few weeks of the 2023 season.

Then Willi Castro started to get run, both literally and figuratively. As Minnesota’s injuries piled up and the utility man from Detroit was more often thrust into the lineup, he found himself on base. Posting just a .278 OBP and 79 OPS+ in his final two seasons with the Tigers, it wasn’t as though Castro had many opportunities on the basepaths. Last season with the Twins, Castro put up a .339 OBP and a career-best 106 OPS+. Suddenly, he unlocked a new facet to his game.

When the dust settled, Castro had become the Twins' stolen base machine. He swiped 33 bags on 38 attempts, and for a guy who routinely found himself on first base, he often advanced to scoring position singlehandedly. Unfortunately for Baldelli, Castro did virtually all of the heavy lifting, with only Michael A. Taylor generating double-digit steals across the rest of the roster. The center fielder became a free agent at the end of the season, and how the Twins will replace some of that baserunning value remains to be seen.

Entering the 2024 season as the most tenured manager in the American League Central, Baldelli seems unlikely to reinvent himself as a manager. How he instructs his team has to do with the talent available to him, but a substantially enhanced aggressiveness on the basepaths doesn’t seem to be in the cards. However, Castro’s role may be mitigated in the year ahead, and someone else will need to step up.

It was curious that Edouard Julien stole just three bases as a rookie for Minnesota (on three attempts). It could have been the preference of batters behind him that the youngster stay put, but the Canadian swiped 19 bags in 2022 at Double A and took 34 the year prior between two levels of Class A. He isn’t a burner, but can get a good jump and pick the right spots. Maybe a second year of comfort at that highest level has all parties involved feeling that it’s something to bring back into his bag of tricks.

Fellow rookie Royce Lewis should also be expected to contribute in this category. He was successful in six of seven tries last season, and that was while coming back from knee surgery and missing time with oblique muscle issues. Lewis may not have the same top-end speed he once did, but it should still be considered a plus tool for his game. The former first-overall pick successfully swiped 85 bases across his time in the minor leagues, and while he has become a real power threat, any time a single is recorded, grabbing an extra 90 feet should be on the table.

The wild card for Minnesota may be Byron Buxton. Despite never playing the outfield last year, Buxton went a perfect 9-for-9 stealing bases. In 2017, he stole 29 bases while being thrown out once. Of course, his knee issues impact his speed a bit, but there is no denying he is among the most challenging runners to throw out in all of baseball. There was a previous argument that his speed had him in scoring position at first base, but with the rule changes, getting to second before a ball is put in play may never be more accessible. If he is healthy enough to be in the field for 2024, utilizing the legs of a guy who has a career 86 stolen bases in 96 attempts should be a no-brainer.

It’s not just the prominent names who can produce on the basepaths, either. Nick Gordon will be back after missing most of the season, and he can swipe bags when given the opportunity. There are also logical prospect debuts coming, in the form of Austin Martin and Brooks Lee, both of whom have havoc-wreaking potential. If Minnesota wants to employ the strategy, it should have more than enough candidates to fit the bill.

Much has been made about the innings and production that Minnesota must replace from the rotation. Departures of Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda, and Tyler Mahle are all notable. That said, it was the offense that needed help for most of the year last season, and putting more runners in scoring position should be a focal point. Twenty-two other teams stole more bases than the Twins last season, and while they don’t need to elevate into the top 10, they have enough speedsters that this is an avenue they should be exploring when it comes to increasing production.

How many players would you like to see with double-digit steals for the Twins in 2024? Who do you think gets there?

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[Cory Engelhardt]

I keep coming back to; the things that Austin Martin can do will really benefit the team. 

I don't see a good reason why he isn't on the team opening day

[tarheeltwinsfan]

7 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I keep coming back to; the things that Austin Martin can do will really benefit the team. 

I don't see a good reason why he isn't on the team opening day

Whose place  do you recommend Martin take? Gordon? 

[Cory Engelhardt]

Just now, tarheeltwinsfan said:

Whose place  do you recommend Martin take? Gordon? 

Yeah, I would put him over Gordon with what he brings, at minimum. He makes contact, he gets on base, he doesn't strike out, he is athletic and can play CF and 2B (Gordon is only a left fielder, right?) and he is REALLY good at stealing bases.

[stringer bell]

6 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Yeah, I would put him over Gordon with what he brings, at minimum. He makes contact, he gets on base, he doesn't strike out, he is athletic and can play CF and 2B (Gordon is only a left fielder, right?) and he is REALLY good at stealing bases.

2023 Willi Castro was superior to what Nick Gordon has accomplished in just about every facet of the game. If the Twins use Willi as a utility man, rather than making him a regular or semi-regular I don't see much reason to keep Gordon. Of course, injuries and ineffectiveness can change the perspective in a hurry. 

As far as Martin vs. Gordon--they're both basically 2B-OFs correct? With Castro on board, it would be important which guy could hit left handed pitching (probably Martin) and which guy could adequately play center field (unknown). Also, I like Martin's chances of being a difference-maker on the bases much more than Gordon's. I know Gordon's sprint speed qualifies as only average. I'm not sure how much faster Martin might be, but his minor league resumé features a lot of stolen bases. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

Just now, stringer bell said:

2023 Willi Castro was superior to what Nick Gordon has accomplished in just about every facet of the game. If the Twins use Willi as a utility man, rather than making him a regular or semi-regular I don't see much reason to keep Gordon. Of course, injuries and ineffectiveness can change the perspective in a hurry. 

As far as Martin vs. Gordon--they're both basically 2B-OFs correct? With Castro on board, it would be important which guy could hit left handed pitching (probably Martin) and which guy could adequately play center field (unknown). Also, I like Martin's chances of being a difference-maker on the bases much more than Gordon's. I know Gordon's sprint speed qualifies as only average. I'm not sure how much faster Martin might be, but his minor league resumé features a lot of stolen bases. 

That is a good point. Gordon has played CF and LF. Martin's experience really points a LOT to CF usage (I know he can play in the corners too.)

 

But you are right, with a 26 man roster, there isn't room for all 3. 

[jmlease1]

I'm hoping Julien gets unleashed at the top of the order. He seems like a perfect lead-off man: gets on base a ton, is dangerous enough to punish a pitcher who tries to groove one as a "get by" pitch, and has good speed and quality base-running skills. He's been successful swiping bases in the minors and should get more of a green light this season, IMHO. If he doesn't get 10+ steals, then something is amiss.

Castro will run free again, for sure.

Lewis and Buxton both have the ability for it and the speed, it's just the injury concerns. I feel like neither will run much in the first couple of weeks, but if their knees are feeling good once the season has started they might get a few more opportunities.

If Gordon sticks, it would be interesting to see if he can do more swiping bases with the changed rules; he hasn't been that great at it (but not bad either) and if he could do a little more while being more efficient it would certainly help his status as a role player. Martin certainly should be seen as a threat if he makes the club.

It would be nice for the Twins to be a bigger threat on the bases, and this year they are better equipped for it than in the past. 2021 & 2022 teams didn't steal much, but who on those teams were you really excited to see try more? I mean, Kepler is a good baserunner, generally...but I don't exactly want to green light him.

[Parfigliano]

1 hour ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

Whose place  do you recommend Martin take? Gordon? 

Yes.

[gman]

As far as short term call ups go, Michael Helman, Deshawn Kersey and Anthony Prato have all had good stolen base years. Since these three have been in the org for a couple of years and are on the roster for St Paul I'd think they should be call-ups this year as injury replacements. Lee could be but I'd think letting him complete his minor league training to come full time to the Twins is more in his cards. Goodrum is also on the St Paul roster but I don't think he has stolen much in recent years.

[Cris E]

They had players who could run last year, but Rocco was playing conservatively to keep guys healthy. So I don't expect Byron or Royce to steal much at all, but I would expect to see more than just Castro allowed to run around out there. There were periods in 2023 where we didn't have a ton of infield depth while Polanco and Lewis were out and he was hesitant. Hopefully this year we might be free to run as much as the roster depth justifies. There are enough extra IF and OF that we can take a couple risks. (I still believe Rocco's experience with injury and illness during his playing days completely colors his roster management and directly leads to his concern with rest and recovery during the season.)

[Blyleven2011]

It would be nice if they reinvented themselves some ....

We need to stay out of the double plays  , if a man on first has speed put the hit and run on if the batter is a contact hitter , move the runner up to scoring position  as often as you can ...

If the batter is prone to strike out , steal a base if the runner has the speed ...

There are Situations that call for this aggressiveness , cant play station to station if the batters aren't  making contact to move the runners into scoring position  , let's see what 2024 brings  ...

Or they aren't going to steal the weak division , they will have to work hard once again to win the division  ...

Let's play some fun exciting baseball from start to finish  this coming season  ...

[Rosterman]

Taylor as a gem with both power and speed. But I would think Martin could replace his speed, as well as his average, if the need arises for him to play in centerfield.

People ask about Gordon. He is on the bubble. He IS the 4th outfielder, if the Twins can get Buxton to play centerfield.

If Buxton is out, or needs to be the DH, the Gordon has to hope that the Twins move someone, be it Farmer or Kepler or especially Polanco. 

It was wonderful to see some stolen bases, but with Castro more likely being a reserve guy, his time will either be in the late innings (especially overtime). More important, always, is the ability to stay out of the double-play by having a good jump, or going from first-to-third and forcing that ball-in-play decision.

Springtraining is around the corner. But, yes, was glad to see some speed on the paths. I would love to see more from Julien and Lewis, and especially Buxton. But I also don't want them jeoparadizing their heath for a stolen base.

I was equally happy with the Twins pitchers and catchers handling the stolen base game by most of the teams.

[stringer bell]

47 minutes ago, Blyleven2011 said:

It would be nice if they reinvented themselves some ....

We need to stay out of the double plays  , if a man on first has speed put the hit and run on if the batter is a contact hitter , move the runner up to scoring position  as often as you can ...

If the batter is prone to strike out , steal a base if the runner has the speed ...

There are Situations that call for this aggressiveness , cant play station to station if the batters aren't  making contact to move the runners into scoring position  , let's see what 2024 brings  ...

Or they aren't going to steal the weak division , they will have to work hard once again to win the division  ...

Let's play some fun exciting baseball from start to finish  this coming season  ...

Yea "if ifs and buts were candy and nuts, we'd all have a merry Christmas". The Twins don't have much speed and they don't have much contact, so hit-and-run and straight steals are pretty infrequent. The threshold for successful base stealing is right around 75%. With the exception of Castro and Buxton, there aren't any guys who will be successful that often, at least running at will. Taking the opportunities when they are given can and should be done. If a pitcher is particularly slow to the plate or a catcher is inaccurate or slow releasing the ball, marginal runners like Julien, Gordon and Wallner should go for it. If a team is paying zero attention, maybe Correa or Farmer can steal a base. 

[Jacksson]

With 2 ACL surgeries on his resume, it is both foolhardy and irresponsible to have Lewis stealing bases.

[EGFTShaw]

1 hour ago, stringer bell said:

[SNIP]

 If a team is paying zero attention, maybe Correa or Farmer can steal a base. 

Hrbek once stole 2nd base.  I wonder how many times that was shown mocking the battery teammates when that happened.
😁

[EGFTShaw]

>>How many players would you like to see with double-digit steals for the Twins in 2024?
I want at least 5 with double-digit steals and success rate of 80% or higher for those 5.

>>Who do you think gets there?
Castro (probable could steal 10 will sitting on the bench)
Martin (he will play about 80-100 games if some trades happen)
Buxton (9/9 on a bum knee, I think one more is in his bag)
Lewis (easily will get 10 even if we protect his 2 ACL knee)
Julien (easily will get 10)

BREAK GLASS In Case of Injury Selection:
DaShawn Keirsey 

[rwilfong86]

I would love to see Castro get 50 steals next year. 

[Karbo]

Now the question is how will management see it. 

[FlyingFinn]

7 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

I'm hoping Julien gets unleashed at the top of the order. He seems like a perfect lead-off man: gets on base a ton, is dangerous enough to punish a pitcher who tries to groove one as a "get by" pitch, and has good speed and quality base-running skills. He's been successful swiping bases in the minors and should get more of a green light this season, IMHO.

Agreed. I believe he was also a little injured In August which may have held him back from stealing more bases.

 

7 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

If Gordon sticks, it would be interesting to see if he can do more swiping bases with the changed rules

He has average speed and refuses to take walks so I don't think he steals many bases, if he even makes the team.

[Otaknam]

Base stealing is an under appreciated aspect of baseball. The new rules of bigger bases and pitch clock lend themselves to utilizing speed. four seasons of station to station and wait for the home run, AKA Earl Weaver, Rocco finally employed the speed he had in 2023. Base stealing isn’t just about speed, it is also about intuition and getting a jump by reading the pitcher. It helps to stay out of the double play by setting the base runner in motion, putting more pressure on the defense. Julien has had very good base stealing numbers in the minors, but I think he was hampered by legs problems. So hopefully he is another guy who can steal some bases. Lewis and Castro too. Let’s use everything in the offensive arsenal, not just power. 

[rv78]

18 hours ago, Blyleven2011 said:

It would be nice if they reinvented themselves some ....

We need to stay out of the double plays  , if a man on first has speed put the hit and run on if the batter is a contact hitter , move the runner up to scoring position  as often as you can ...

If the batter is prone to strike out , steal a base if the runner has the speed ...

There are Situations that call for this aggressiveness , cant play station to station if the batters aren't  making contact to move the runners into scoring position  , let's see what 2024 brings  ...

Or they aren't going to steal the weak division , they will have to work hard once again to win the division  ...

Let's play some fun exciting baseball from start to finish  this coming season  ...

Unfortunately with Rocco at the helm they won't be making any significant changes. What we saw last year was minor to his willingness to change. Cris E said it best with Rocco's own career being hampered by injuries his management style is to protect and rest........ even if it costs them wins. Lewis and Buxton could both steal 30+ bases a year if healthy but Rocco will baby them going forward. In Buxtons case resting him doesn't matter. You can pull an oblique swinging for the fences. Does that change his management style? No. Had Rocco been Manager for Lou Brock, Ricky Henderson or Vince Coleman they would have only gotten half the stolen bases they ended up with. Course, they would have been on the bench resting at least 2 days every week. 

[TopGunn#22]

I think Rocco "is who he is" which disappoints me somewhat.  Even Earl Weaver had guys that could steal a base and he let them.  Paul Blair, Don Buford, Merv Rettenmumd, Mark Belanger.  In the 70's Weaver unleashed Al Bumbry, Don Baylor and Rich Coggins.   In 1973, Earl Weaver, the King of the 3-run HR manager had his Orioles steal 148 bases !  

It was very frustrating to me that it took injuries and practically half the season for Rocco to realize that base stealing was "a thing" again.  Maybe in the "Age of the Homerun or Strikeout" we can never expect to see the base stealing of the 1980's, but I thoroughly enjoyed seeing the SB make a comeback.  Even with the Rocco Baldelli Twins.  

I'm not so sure that Castro's base stealing will be "mitigated" but it certainly could possibly be "diminished" if his playing time reduces due to better health and production of our regular lineup guys.  I still think Castro will play enough that he should surpass 30 steals in 2024.

I absolutely disagree with the strategy and philosophy that a manager must stay away from certain players stealing bases in order to keep them healthy.  If you're healthy enough to be in the lineup you better be healthy enough to PLAY THE GAME. 

Buxton and Lewis need to run when the situation presents itself.  I've read countless times that Lewis is "6 steps slower" after TWO ACL surgeries.  Didn't seem to stop him going from 1st to 3rd on a single to RF.  Didn't automatically disqualify him from scoring from 1st on a double to the gap.  Julien and Martin have shown the ability to be very effective base stealers in the minors.  Rocco's teams will never steal 148 bags in a season, but he DOES have some guys to work with that could lead to a more aggressive base stealing and base running team, and he should embrace that.

[stringer bell]

If Rocco had a bunch of racehorses, I think the Twins would run plenty. They just don’t. They only have a couple guys who can run without the element of surprise. 
 

I haven’t seen anyone say that Lewis is considerably slower than before the two knee surgeries. His sprint speed was listed at 73rd percentile (28.2 ft. per sec).