Breaking Down the Twins Organization's Talent Landscape Entering 2024

[Nick Nelson]

Last week, I counted down my choices for the top 20 player assets in the Minnesota Twins organization as we head into 2024. Today we'll take a step back to review the list, as well as what it tells us about Minnesota's evolving talent landscape and competitive position.

Image courtesy of Erik Williams, Jesse Johnson, Matt Krohn (USA Today Sports), William Parmeter

At the start of each new year, I take a shot at creating a hierarchical inventory of the top 20 players in the Twins organization, based on their distinct value to the franchise and its future. While far from a scientific exercise, it provides an opportunity to think about all players and prospects through a strategic lens. Accounting for age, contracts, control, scarcity, and – above all – talent, which players are most indispensable to the front office's vision for winning a championship?

This process always creates some challenging decisions: How do you compare the value of a top prospect who hasn't reached the majors (but will eventually have six-plus full years of team control), versus a highly-paid veteran who lacks those traits but has proved his mettle in the majors? 

I'll talk through a few of those decisions, plus some revelations that struck me as I went through this exercise, shortly. But first, here's a recap of the full list, which I rolled out in four installments: Part 1 (16-20), Part 2 (11-15), Part 3 (6-10), and Part 4 (1-5). Listed next to each player is his method of acquisition.

20. Chris Paddack, RHP (Trade)
19. Austin Martin, CF (Trade)
18. Max Kepler, RF (Int'l. Signing)
17. Alex Kirilloff, 1B (Draft - 1st Rd)
16. David Festa, RHP (Draft - 13th Rd)
15. Louie Varland, RHP (Draft - 15th Rd)
14. Jorge Polanco, 2B (Int'l. Signing)
13. Marco Raya, RHP (Draft - 4th Rd)
12. Matt Wallner, RF (Draft - 1st Rd Supp)
11. Jhoan Durán, RHP (Trade)
10. Joe Ryan, RHP (Trade)
9. Emmanuel Rodriguez, CF (Int'l. Signing)
8. Edouard Julien, 2B (Draft - 18th Rd)
7. Bailey Ober, RHP (Draft - 12th Rd)
6. Carlos Correa, SS (Free Agent)
5. Ryan Jeffers, C (Draft Pick - 2nd Rd)
4. Brooks Lee, SS (Draft Pick - 1st Rd)
3. Pablo López, RHP (Trade)
2. Royce Lewis, 3B (Draft - 1st Rd)
1. Walker Jenkins, CF (Draft - 1st Rd)

At a high level, as I look at these rankings and compare them to last year's, the first thing that strikes me is how much the overall talent level in the organization has improved in 12 months' time. While there was one staggeringly steep drop-off at the very top, which I'll address shortly, we also find a lot of newcomers in the top 10, including a few players who emerged last year to distinguish themselves as true franchise cornerstones.

In particular I'm thinking about these three new arrivals in the top five: Lewis (No. 6 last year), López (No. 9 last year, after I updated the rankings), and Jeffers (No. 16). Having Game 1 battery-mates and a versatile lineup centerpiece like Lewis in these spots is a very favorable setup. All three are in their mid-20s; under team control for three or more years; and coming off excellent seasons in the majors. As I look at the Twins franchise at this moment, that trio represents the foundation for stability and success, with Jenkins and Lee mixing in as elite prospects on the way (or, trade chips to support the cause right away).

The Just-Missed List
There were a lot of players who floated around the fringe of this top 20 in my mind and were strongly considered for inclusion, but didn't quite make the cut. This group included, in no particular order: Jose Miranda, Kody Funderburk, Charlee Soto, Griffin Jax, Brock Stewart, Trevor Larnach, Jair Camargo and Willi Castro.

The "just-missed list" did not, however, include last year's No. 1-ranked player, who sadly cannot really be viewed as having positive asset value as we speak.

Bye Bye Buxton
Buxton ranked No. 1 when I compiled these rankings last year. Although some fans act like his contract is some sort of debilitating hindrance, that's not true at all. His annual guaranteed base of $15 million is not prohibitive in today's MLB economy. Coming off back-to-back 4-WAR seasons and his first All-Star appearance, I didn't find it too controversial to view him as the organization's most treasured player asset a year ago, even while acknowledging the historical availability limitations.

Unfortunately, Buxton's 2023 season more or less represented a worst-case scenario, which tanked his stock and sent him spiraling out of the top 20. Even as one of the world's foremost Buxton cheerleaders, I can't deny the reality: He's impossible to confidently plan around in any way at this point. Last year, he tried battling through severe knee pain and was reduced from superstar center fielder to mediocre DH—and still failed to reach 100 games played. 

The Twins are hopeful that he can bounce back and return to center field next year. As is Buxton; as am I. But I try not to let hopefulness guide these rankings. Right now, Buxton is owed $75 million over the next five years and his future is in limbo.

Contemplating Correa's Value as an Asset
Correa, whom I ranked No. 2 behind Buxton last year on my revised list after he signed, also saw a drop this year (to sixth), but not nearly to the same degree. He, too, is coming off a pretty crummy season, but it wasn't nearly as worrisome as Buxton's. One player was starring in the playoffs, while the other was limited to a single meager pinch-hit appearance, and that's the most current image we have of both. Remember: these rankings are a snapshot in time.

I considered moving Correa down further, because he's owed a lot of money for the next several years and that's a big factor, given Minnesota's self-imposed financial constraints. But at the end of the day, I have to remind myself: This is a caliber of player to whom the Twins almost never have access, who ended up back here due to a borderline miracle with a contract most organizations would happily take. I believe the Twins, in spite of their newfound spending concerns, are still very glad to have him, price tag and all.

Looking Back at the López Trade
Thinking about players through this lens of asset evaluation can be a really interesting way to judge trade outcomes, because it puts the result in plain terms: Did you end up with something more valuable to your organization than what you gave up? If you did, then you can pretty safely say it was a good trade.

Last year, before the trade, I had Luis Arráez ranked 10th among Twins player assets. I was probably lower on him than most, weighing his marginal defensive value and physical breakdown concerns alongside the system's array of potential replacements. Arraez went on to have a fantastic year for the Marlins—one that surely would've raised his stock this time around if he were still here. Nonetheless, it's hard to deny that the Twins are in better position after making the move.

In my revised rankings following the trade, I had López ninth, viewing him as similar in value to Arraez. (Sign of a quality trade.) López went on to raise his stock massively in the 2023 season, transforming into the rarest of commodities: a legitimate ace starter in his prime. His performance, especially along with a contract extension that keeps him in Minnesota for the next four years at a very reasonable rate, vaulted him to the No. 3 spot in this year's rankings. 

In addition to López taking that step forward, we also saw Eddie Julien's breakthrough on the big-league stage. He narrowly missed the top 20 a year ago but finds himself now firmly in the top 10 after a convincing debut. I have Julien ranked higher now (eighth) than I had Arraez last year, because he's basically a 1:1 replacement, with more team control and fewer injury concerns. He has a similar defensive profile and similar offensive production (albeit a very different way of getting there). The Twins have Julien for six more years, compared to the three they had remaining for Arraez.

Is Brooks Lee the Team's Best Trade Bait?
For many MLB organizations, it seems fair to say that Lee would rank No. 1 on a list like this. He's the No. 18 prospect in all of baseball, according to MLB Pipeline, and he's pretty much major league-ready. Yet, here we find him ranked fourth in the Twins organization. 

It's not a knock on the kid, whom I'm extremely high on. It's just that I couldn't sell myself on him being more indispensable than any of the three above him (López, Lewis, Jenkins), especially because Lee projects to play one of several infield positions—third, short, and second—that are currently occupied by apparent long-term fixtures for Minnesota 

When I notice that a player is ranked lower on this Twins-specific list than he would be in many other organizations, it's a good indicator that the player could be viewed as a valuable trade chip. The same logic led me to name Arráez as one of the team's most likely trade candidates when recapping last year's list, days before he was, in fact, dealt.

Let's Talk Walker at No. 1
As a final topic to dissect, I want to unpack the decision to rank Walker Jenkins as the organization's No. 1 player asset heading into 2024. Many commenters objected to the idea of a barely-tested teenager who's not close to the majors outranking players like Lewis and López—star players in their primes who have already arrived and are making it happen.

I get it! Trust me. I wrestled a lot with where to rank Jenkins (and Lee, for that matter), given the inherent uncertainty of the prospects and future promises in baseball. The thing is, if you take a scrutinizing eye to anyone on this list, you're going to find blemishes or shades of reasonable doubt.

Lewis has been constantly besieged by injuries for three straight years. (Sound familiar?) López has had one complete season of truly elite pitching, and there's no guarantee that he repeats it. Jeffers, Julien, Ober, Wallner? Regression could strike any of these guys, with their limited track records.

You could argue that the "shiny new toy" effect is in play with Jenkins, and it is! But it's legitimate. Not only were the Twins and their fans watching with awe what he did during this pro debut, but the baseball world at large stood shoulder-to-shoulder with them. People in the organization are out of their minds about the North Carolina product. MLB.com's Jim Callis recently predicted that Jenkins will be the No. 2 ranked prospect in all of baseball by the end of 2024.

It's very possible Jenkins's stock will never be this high again. Probable, even. But if it maintains, given the established MLB talents he is edging in these rankings, we are in for a hell of a ride over the next decade. The random twist of fate that pushed Minnesota from 13th to fifth in the 2023 draft order could end up as a truly franchise-altering moment, with epic consequences.

Right now, we can dream. That's the fun part about these rankings: a snapshot in time, to start the new year. Bring on 2024.

I'd love to hear your thoughts on the overall rankings, notable omissions, or changes you would have made. Huge thanks to everyone who's followed along and shared their thoughts. I read and enjoy every comment for this series!

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[D.C Twins]

I think Chris Paddack makes a huge contribution this year and will ascend to our #2 SP quickly. 

[Eris]

The capabilities of a prospect are not really understood until they arrive in big leagues and their weakness is found. Can they overcome their weaknesses. Byron Buxton was MLBs top prospect in 2014 and 2015. Injuries aside, he still can’t hit a curveball. 
 

It is much easier to work out a fair trade with Arraez (vs Brooks Lee or Jenkins) because everyone knew exactly what his MLB capabilities were. 

[roger]

Thanks Nick.  Really enjoyed reviewing your posts this past week.  And love today's summation.

What struck me when I looked at the list, is the lack of International signings.  Only three of twenty, and two of those were a long time ago.  Granted, a couple were traded (Arraez and Graterol) which would have made it 5 of 20.

Considering the Twins spend nearly as much signing International Players as they do the draft every year, they aren't getting a good return on their dollars.  I ask, why not?

As for Jenkins, I continue to read what others write about him and ask, is this kid really the next Mickey Mantle?  

[Oldgoat_MN]

I'd be pretty tempted to try to get a young talented pitcher for Brooks Lee. Having another playoff caliber pitcher would impact this team more than an upgrade at any other position. 

No disrespect, but yeah. I'd trade him in a heartbeat for a Gilbert or Kirby sort of pitcher. 

How much more trade bait would be required?

[jmlease1]

It's always a little different to talk about players as organizational assets rather than just based on their ability either based on the previous year's output or projections for the next season. When you're just talking about who's gonna be good in 2024, it's a much simpler equation. As an organizational asset you do have to think about trade value, contract status, age and injury history might be even more important (or less), depth at the position matters.

Buxton is the hardest case of them all. If he plays 125 games next season with 100 of them in CF, he would rocket back onto this list...but as long as he can't stay on the field (and in the field) he's not one of the top 20 assets, even if he still might actually be one of their best players. (a fact that might give people a little extra hope for 2024: we won the division and a playoff series without getting much from one of our most talented players)

One of the reasons I'm comfortable with Correa ranking so high is because it's been so hard to lock in SS for the Twins. Yes, there was a little stability with Polanco there, but also no because he was having issues staying healthy there and the defense was inconsistent. Otherwise we've been churning through Simmons, Escobar, Florimon, Nishioka, Dozier, Plouffe, Hardy, Cabrera, Punto, etc for 15 years. Not needing to go look for the next SS is a big deal; it's just a tough spot to fill effectively. Correa had a bad year by his standards, but compared to what we've been at? And compared to where he's likely to be again considering he should be healthy and looked great in the playoffs, it's a no-brainer, even with the big contract.

I get the concerns about making too much out of Walker Jenkins before he does anything. But he sure looks like the real deal, and other teams will value him incredibly highly so from an asset perspective you have to use that lens a little as well. If there's a chance that this dude is Bryce Harper, Part II? I mean, holy cow.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

I really enjoyed the article and rankings.  There are plenty of unimportant nits to be picked, but the overall picture you presented was terrific.  I am struck by how much better and how much better balanced (pitching/hitting, established/prospect) it is than it would have been five or so years ago.  If the prospects develop the way they are supposed to and we can avoid catastrophic injuries, the Twins could be in for a few years of being real contenders. 

Buxton (the elephant in the room. . . every room) continues to confound.  What on Earth do you do with him?  Yes, if he's healthy and producing, all is great, but really.   What are the odds of that?  I just hope that he plays all the time when he can, and when he is injured (with a much lower bar than last year), he's out to the injured list until he can be healthy again.  They just can't repeat last year's debacle. 

 

[Fatbat]

So the Twins break the rule of MN can’t have anything nice and not only move up from 13 to 5 but they might have got lucky again by having Jenkins slide down to their pick.  That never seems to happen.  He sure looks like he will be the guy to replace Buxton not only on the asset list but in CF as well.  My enthusiasm for young players has never been higher after watching video on Jenkins.  He is so smooth at everything the does.  Guys like this don’t get traded, get used to seeing him around for a long time!

[TL]

Another guy that could really move up if he can get and stay healthy is Kirilloff. Personally I’d love to see him have a great first half, and then him be the one traded for pitching help. That way you can move Julien to first and open up second for Lee. Unfortunately that would require holding off until the trade deadline to make a big move for pitching. 

[Otaknam]

By most accounts Jenkins is a potential generational talent who could be on the fast track to the big leagues. You don’t trade a person like that unless it is for the missing piece to win a World Series. Even then I would not do it.

[JD-TWINS]

Nice list and overview!

Understand the optimism with the guys coming up in the system.

Not really sure why, I have lost all optimism with Miranda…….hopefully, last year was all about poor health!

[AlwaysinModeration]

Thanks Nick, for the great series and overview recap.  I’m trying to wrap my mind around the fact that you did this 12 months ago and concluded Buxton was the most valuable team asset, and now he isn’t even among the top 20.  That just doesn’t make sense to me, any way you slice it.  
 

Using FanGraphs, in terms of career value, Buxton has produced the second most WAR (19) on the team, behind only Correa (32.4).  So in terms of what he is capable of producing, based on what he has done already, he’s second on the team.

In terms of projected production moving forward, he is expected to produce somewhere in the 6-8 WAR over the next five years he is under contract.  That’s much less than Lewis, Correa and Lopez are projected for, and basically in line with Ryan, Julien, and Duran’s projections.  And prospects Jenkins and Lee have higher upside than 6-8 WAR, but are uncertain to reach their potential.  But for everyone else on the team, Buxton is expected to produce more value for the team; more than Kepler, Polanco, Jeffers, Varland, Ober, Martin, Festa, etc.

He’s under team control for the next five years, which is more than a bunch of guys on this list like Kepler (1), Paddack and Polanco (2), and Lopez and Jeffers (3), plus a bunch of guys who have four years of team control remaining.

Now, it is true that he is owed $75mm over the next five years, and he didn’t earn his $15mm salary last year.  I get why you have soured on his value as a team asset.  But he’s produced over $150mm in value for the team in his career to date, and is projected to be one of the team’s top producers going forward, even factoring in his poor year last year. 

I don’t think he’s their top asset, but I think it’s wrong to conclude he isn’t in their top 20.  He could easily post a 4 WAR season this year, like he has two of the last three years.

I think I’d put him in the 6-10 range.  I just don’t see his bad year dropping him from 1 to outside the top 20.