Twins Should Hang Onto Jorge Polanco, at Least for Now

[Nash Walker]

It seems almost a no-brainer for the Twins to move Jorge Polanco and his $10.5-million salary this offseason. Even as a staunch believer of both of the youngsters who would replace him, though, I'm less sure. 

Image courtesy of Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

The Twins are in an envious position. All but a handful of MLB teams would swap their current state of affairs for a locked-in core of Royce Lewis, Edouard Julien, Carlos Correa, Ryan Jeffers, Byron Buxton, Pablo López, and Jhoan Durán, not to discount an additional two top-20 prospects in Walker Jenkins (Ranked 16th at MLB Pipeline) and Brooks Lee (18th). 

There is loads of talent in the organization, evidenced by a stellar second half in which the Twins went 42-29 (a 96-win pace) while scoring the second-most runs (398) and allowing the fourth-fewest (306) in the American League. If there was ever a year in which the 26-man collection could endure payroll restrictions, 2024 is it. But that's a slippery slope. 

Lewis, who should be a trendy 2024 MVP pick, is earning the minimum at third base. Same for Julien, Matt Wallner, Durán, and three presumptive rotation members, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, and Louie Varland. Chris Paddack comes in at $2.5 million, a very affordable price for a backend starter. López is collecting a mere $8.25 million on the front end of a brilliant four-year, $73.5-million extension agreed to in late April. That's chump change for an ace. 

Jorge Polanco’s $10.5 million appears bloated by comparison, especially given the self-imposed budgetary constraints. The institutional anchor, after nearly 15 years and 1,466 games in the organization, is not a player you push to flip. Polanco’s 118 wRC+ ranked sixth among 26 A.L. second baseman with at least 250 plate appearances last season. He posted career highs in Barrel rate and Hard-Hit rate, while producing an OPS significantly better than MLB’s mean. While he graded poorly by Outs Above Average (OAA) at -5, Polanco finished as a plus in Defensive Runs Saved (1).

Lee, who is a legitimate top-end prospect, doesn't look quite ready. As of this writing, he’s 22 years old and hit .237 with a .731 OPS in his first taste of Triple A. In an extremely offense-friendly environment, Lee’s wRC+ of 78 was 22 percent below the league average. I’m not saying he won’t be good (or even great!) in the majors; he just probably won’t be for a bit. Like Julien last May, you cross that bridge when you come to it for a team with the potential to play deep into October. 

Finding that same proverbial room for Julien is unnecessary. Unlike José Miranda, who held his own against same-sided pitchers in 2022 and essentially pushed out Gio Urshela in a similar situation at third, he’s best suited for a fairly strict platoon role. An early season pairing of Buxton and Julien at DH could be exceedingly favorable for the Twins, assuming Buxton eases back into center field during that time.

A $12-million club option for 2025 lets the Twins re-evaluate Polanco next offseason and make the call then. There is ample capital with which to deal for starting pitching, without taking away from a deep, brawny position player group.

The fixation in moving Polanco in most spaces is opportunity cost: the loss of potential gains from other alternatives. Perhaps overcoming his greatest flaw, Julien seemed competent defensively down the stretch. The numbers check out. He went from -4 OAA from March through June to 4 OAA from July through September. The rookie finished with a neutral number of runs prevented, per Statcast.

It’s sensible to simply chalk Julien in at second base, wait for Lee, and send Polanco on his merry way, with big-league help or prospects coming in return. This type of roster architecture has borne fruit on numerous occasions in Twins history. See: rookie Joe Mauer replacing A.J. Pierzynski, who was traded for Joe Nathan and Francisco Liriano. Or, for a more recent example: acquiring López for Arraez, who watched from afar as Julien emerged in his spot.

I'm almost always in favor of this "trust the kids" strategy. Not in this case. First, you're not going to net a López for Polanco, who remains good and underrated but also limited by age and injuries. It's true that since 2021, Polanco ranks fifth among 39 qualified second basemen in wRC+ (121), homers (63), and fourth in RBI (202). It's equally true that, after leading the Twins by a mile with 1,574 plate appearances from 2019 to 2021, Polanco has logged a total of 788 since. Recurring lower body trouble has limited him to 181 starts over the last two seasons. It's enough to wonder if the 30-year-old is nearing the end of his prime. 

I'm willing to bet he has a lot more to give in 2024. Polanco is the prototype of a well-known, well-liked veteran who supplements a roster brimming with young talent. He's no longer one of the team's best players, but that doesn't mean he's instantly dispensable. He's a good enough player until he shows you he's not. I want to keep as many good players as possible, with a modest potential return in mind.

What's your stance on Polanco? How much would the Twins have to get in return in order for you to be ok with the departure of such a long-tenured fixture?

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[Karbo]

I agree that Polo is an important part of the team. He is probably the guy I want at the plate with someone on base. That said, I don't believe anybody should be "untouchable" for a trade. I would absolutely keep him, at least to start the season, unless a trade that blows me away comes along.

[Brett]

I had always assumed Polo would be the right infielder to trade based on salary alone, and what appears to be a lot of infield depth. Farmer might bring a better return, but then you have to believe in both Castro and Gordon to play freely around the infield. It’s a tough call. I would like to keep everyone, but that’s because I mitigate risk for a living.

We’ll see who stays healthy through spring training. That should ultimately decide who stays.

[DJL44]

The Twins have made it clear they want to try to compete with a payroll in the bottom 10. In order to do that they can't afford to allocate $10.5M on a redundant 2B.

[pierre75275]

If Buxton can play center 60% of the time and rest 20% of the time and only DH the rest, then keeping Polanco makes sense. If Buxton is going to be DHing a majority of the time, keeping Polanco doesn't make a lot of sense, bc then Julien will be on the bench or in AAA, and neither option makes the team better. 

I like Polanco a lot, but it seems like from the business side of things he is on his way out of the org.

[Riverbrian]

When a team builds the depth that the Twins have.

The next step is to add players like Polanco. 

Not to subtract them. 

I love Julien... but if you see Polanco as expendable because of Julien. It's important to remember that Julien was pulled as soon as a left hander hit the stage.

He was pulled before he even had an AB against San Francisco.  

 

 

 

[nicksaviking]

13 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

The Twins have made it clear they want to try to compete with a payroll in the bottom 10. In order to do that they can't afford to allocate $10.5M on a redundant 2B.

Enough with the hyperbole. Show this "bottom 10" quote or stop with the exaggeration.

 

[Cory Engelhardt]

Love Polanco, and if he is still with the team opening day I would be happy.

They need to add a playoff level starter to the rotation, and will need to be creative to make it happen.

Polanco alone doesn’t net you a playoff starter. Polanco plus prospects may, or just a prospect package may. Have to see what others want.

If Polanco’s legs are holding up, he is a very good player. I hope he is healthy. And I’m certainly not selling him off for a prospect package that is years away either

[Major League Ready]

15 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

When a team builds the depth that Twins have.

The next step is too add players like Polanco. 

Not to subtract them. 

I love Julien... but if you see Polanco as expendable because of Julien. It's important to remember that Julien was pulled as soon as a left hander hit the stage.

He was pulled before he even had an AB against San Francisco.  

 

 

 

If Polanco was not on the team, do you think they would allocate $10M toward a player like him or would that money more likely be spent on pitching?  

[Blyleven2011]

There is still plenty left in the tank with Polanco  , when healthy  he produces  , his salary isn't unreasonable  ...

Keep him at least until a competent replacement is capable to replace him ...

Still a month or so before spring training starts so anything can happen     ..  

[DJL44]

1 minute ago, Blyleven2011 said:

Keep him at least until a competent replacement is capable to replace him ...

Julien has been with the team for a full season now.

[JD-TWINS]

43 minutes ago, Brett said:

I had always assumed Polo would be the right infielder to trade based on salary alone, and what appears to be a lot of infield depth. Farmer might bring a better return, but then you have to believe in both Castro and Gordon to play freely around the infield. It’s a tough call. I would like to keep everyone, but that’s because I mitigate risk for a living.

We’ll see who stays healthy through spring training. That should ultimately decide who stays.

Mitigating risk into having zero leverage in trade discussions is what happens if the club waits until deep into Spring Training to try and offer him up to the rest of baseball.

180 starts out of a possible 324 games over past 2 years………55% of the time. Career .270 hitter……hit .235 & .255 respectively over past 2 years. His skills and availability are diminishing - if he has a year or three left, the Tram needs to move on by coupling him with a couple other pieces in a trade for pitching value OR move his salary for prospects and use his salary $$ to apply to pitching help.

Julien - Farmer are both healthy AND better defensively at this point on defense. Perfect platoon at the plate. There is no NEED for Polanco on this 26 man roster.

[DJL44]

25 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I’m certainly not selling him off for a prospect package that is years away either

I don't have a problem with this. Get the best prospects you can, trade some of the others for a starting pitcher.

[Cory Engelhardt]

1 minute ago, DJL44 said:

I don't have a problem with this. Get the best prospects you can, trade some of the others for a starting pitcher.

IF that is the play I'm ok with it. They absolutely need another playoff level starter, so they have to be creative on how to get there. 

[pierre75275]

44 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

When a team builds the depth that Twins have.

The next step is too add players like Polanco. 

Not to subtract them. 

I love Julien... but if you see Polanco as expendable because of Julien. It's important to remember that Julien was pulled as soon as a left hander hit the stage.

He was pulled before he even had an AB against San Francisco.  

 

 

 

I would hope that Farmer doesn't get traded, specifically for this scenario if Polanco does

[DJL44]

32 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Enough with the hyperbole. Show this "bottom 10" quote or stop with the exaggeration.

$116M was the 21st ranking payroll in 2024 with an average payroll of $156M. Average pay is going up this offseason and the Diamondbacks, Reds and Tigers are moving up the list as they add free agents. If $125M isn't in the bottom 10 it will be within $10M of the bottom 10 and is certain to be closer to 21st than it is either the average or the median payrolls.

[Karbo]

2 minutes ago, pierre75275 said:

I would hope that Farmer doesn't get traded, specifically for this scenario if Polanco does

Putting salary aside for a minute, I would rather have Polo.

[old nurse]

The hyperbole starts early with this one. There are probably 10 teams who are sure their top 9 players are better than the listed 9 Twins. Then there are 9 teams who think their top 9 are better, then there is Oakland who would go “yeah, but we don’t have that king of money 

[Riverbrian]

34 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

If Polanco was not on the team, do you think they would allocate $10M toward a player like him or would that money more likely be spent on pitching?  

I'm not sure what the Twins are going to do. The budget is going to be a factor. 

However... if I was in charge... I'm looking to add a player like Polanco before I add pitching and that is with Polanco on the team. 

 

[Dman]

Lots of ways to look at this. This Twins team is in contention mode so moving Polanco is not an easy proposition.  There is room in the infield especially if they move Farmer to mix and match players and if someone gets hurt then it is even easier to find time for everyone.  The tough part about trading Polanco is the Twins need\would like a return that improves the current MLB roster as much as keeping him. It feels like it would take an overpay for another team to acquire Polanco and given his injury history and age I just don't think another team is going to give the Twins enough to move him if that is how the FO feels about him.  

Another way to look at this is if the Twins keep Farmer they still have a right handed Platoon bat for Jullien and a player who can play all the infield positions and possibly left field if needed.  In this scenario then you could feel free to try and gain extra value in a trade mainly for prospects.  It is the Tampa\Oakland\Cleveland method of trading high and dumping salary and hoping younger players can fill in (i.e. Lee, Prato, Helman, Goodrum) as depth if needed.

As noted in the article I still think Jorge has a potent bat.  A difference making playoff bat.  It would be tough to see him moved.  Will just have to wait and see what offers the Twins get and if anything looks good enough to move him.

[DJL44]

2 minutes ago, Karbo said:

Putting salary aside for a minute, I would rather have Polo.

Farmer is the better defender, can play multiple positions and is available more often. Polanco is often injured and can really only play 2B or DH now. Farmer is a better option for the bench. I think they're both likely to be dealt. Farmer would be the starting SS for SF or Miami.

[JD-TWINS]

51 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Enough with the hyperbole. Show this "bottom 10" quote or stop with the exaggeration.

 

I’m not passionate about this at all but if the Twins were 17th of 30 in ‘23 in payroll, I doubt there needs to be a quote to predict them dropping 3 more spots. If they spend 15% LESS than ‘23, as predicted, they will drop a few spots. $154M in 2023 & widely assumed to have a high end ceiling of $130-$135M in ‘24……..that’s a 12-14% reduction in payroll. Pretty sure they’ll be in bottom 10 - no offense - no exaggeration.

[Steve75]

We could afford the bloated 11 million contract of Joey Gallo last year, Polanco would be way more valuable to our offense than that.  There should be a first baseman's mitt in both his and Julien's locker in Fort Myers. 

[Riverbrian]

9 minutes ago, pierre75275 said:

I would hope that Farmer doesn't get traded, specifically for this scenario if Polanco does

To be clear... I really appreciate Farmer and what he did for us last year and my response should not be taken as a negative toward Farmer.  

If Polanco gets traded... Yes... Farmer's importance goes up. It goes up a lot because unless they take the left handed pitcher chains off of Julien... They will need Farmer to face the lefties.   

As of right now... I haven't read one comment from any poster projecting Farmer to be a starter next year. 

Budget seems to be the reason this is even a conversation.     

Polanco at 10.5 Million with a club option. Career OPS+ 111 - Polanco has been a Twin his entire 10 year career. 

Farmer at 6.6 million will be a free agent next year. Career OPS+ 88 and he has been with a club for 1 year.  

For an extra 3.9 million dollars in savings... choosing Farmer over Polanco is a pretty severe hit to the productivity of the roster.  

 

 

[JD-TWINS]

17 minutes ago, Karbo said:

Putting salary aside for a minute, I would rather have Polo.

I like & respect Jorge. He’s not hit near his .270 career BA over past 2 seasons……… .235 & .255 respectively. He graded out lower on defense at 2B than both Farmer & Julien last year. Worst issue, he’s started 55% of the time (as a clear “starter”) over past 2 seasons so his availability is highly questionable.

Putting salary aside, he doesn’t bring much value to the Twins at this point with 26 spots to be filled…………….salary is never put aside.

[Major League Ready]

14 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Farmer is the better defender, can play multiple positions and is available more often. Polanco is often injured and can really only play 2B or DH now. Farmer is a better option for the bench. I think they're both likely to be dealt. Farmer would be the starting SS for SF or Miami.

Farmer is also has slightly better career stats against LHP so he is actually slightly better than Polanco where platooning with Julien is concerned.

[JD-TWINS]

1 minute ago, Riverbrian said:

To be clear... I really appreciate Farmer and what he did for us last year and my response should not be taken as a negative toward Farmer.  

If Polanco gets traded... Yes... Farmer's importance goes up. It goes up a lot because unless they take the left handed pitcher chains off of Julien... They will need Farmer to face the lefties.   

As of right now... I haven't read one comment from any poster projecting Farmer to be a starter next year. 

Budget seems to be the reason this is even a conversation.     

Polanco at 10.5 Million with a club option. Career OPS+ 111 - Polanco has been a Twin his entire 10 year career. 

Farmer at 6.6 million will be a free agent next year. Career OPS+ 88 and he has been with a club for 1 year.  

For an extra 3.9 million dollars in savings... choosing Farmer over Polanco is a pretty severe hit to the productivity of the roster.  

 

 

Polanco CANNOT play SS!

Polanco is a definite downgrade at 3B v. Farmer.

Polanco graded below Julien & Farmer at 2B in ‘23.

Polanco has started 55% of the time over past 2 seasons. (as a clear starter)

Polanco is a career .270 BA hitter, & has hit .235 & .255 the past two years……… productivity & availability are both sinking dramatically.

Polanco’s career numbers don’t matter in sports/baseball where “what have you done lately & what are you anticipated to do going forward” are the driving force in decisions.

Buxton has DH clogged - there is no scenario where he suddenly plays 60-80 games in CF. There’s nowhere to put Julien’s bat……he’s Top 10 OBP in League, he’s getting AB’s!

With Polanco’s fragile health over the past 2 years, he could make $3M per year & still not be carried on this 26 man roster.

[Major League Ready]

10 minutes ago, Steve75 said:

We could afford the bloated 11 million contract of Joey Gallo last year, Polanco would be way more valuable to our offense than that.  There should be a first baseman's mitt in both his and Julien's locker in Fort Myers. 

Yes, they could afford that $11M gamble last year.  This year they don't have $30M in BAM money and an undetermined decrease in TV revenue.  How is what they did last year relevant?  It's also not a matter of if they could keep Polanco.  Obviously, they could keep him.  The question is could the team get better short by redistributing the dollars or long-term by trading for value.  Having watched the Rays make deal after deal of this nature that have resulted in long-term success, I am just fine with them moving Polanco if reasonable value short or long-term can be obtained.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

The Twins have created quite the conundrum for 2024. How to get a playoff, quality starting pitcher. without paying big money for a FA and without trading any "fan favorites"? Friends, it can't be done in 2024.  The logical choice for us fans, who wrongly assume that the owners "just want to win games" and "who do not care about the profit margins", is to sign a FA stud pitcher and hope he is not a flop. Or don't trade away the promising starting pitchers they do have. The Twins previously had the #2/3 SP they needed in Jose Berrios. Let's look back at the Jose Berrios trade for just a minute. Berrios would have been a perfect fit for 2023 and 2024 and beyond. Instead, the Twins have Austin Martin and SWR. Turns out that was a very bad trade for the Twins. Sonny Gray, Pablo Lopez and Jose Berrios would have been quite impressive as the first three starting pitchers for the Twins this past year. And for 2024 the starting duo of Lopez and Berrios would have been awesome.  Sometimes the best trade, is no trade at all. 

[pierre75275]

19 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

To be clear... I really appreciate Farmer and what he did for us last year and my response should not be taken as a negative toward Farmer.  

If Polanco gets traded... Yes... Farmer's importance goes up. It goes up a lot because unless they take the left handed pitcher chains off of Julien... They will need Farmer to face the lefties.   

As of right now... I haven't read one comment from any poster projecting Farmer to be a starter next year. 

Budget seems to be the reason this is even a conversation.     

Polanco at 10.5 Million with a club option. Career OPS+ 111 - Polanco has been a Twin his entire 10 year career. 

Farmer at 6.6 million will be a free agent next year. Career OPS+ 88 and he has been with a club for 1 year.  

For an extra 3.9 million dollars in savings... choosing Farmer over Polanco is a pretty severe hit to the productivity of the roster.  

 

 

That's a good point but I don't think the team can only consider offense. Farmer can also play SS and 3B, Polanco can't, and Farmer's defense is also better at second (if you want to, provide stats to prove me wrong, I'll tip my hat to you). 

Also, I feel like Polanco needs to play every day to be effective, and Farmer less so.