Twins Roster Among Baseball’s Top 10 Entering the Offseason

miracleb · November 13

Polanco should be traded now...while there is value. Farmer....not sure you can get anything for him at this point. Kepler....may need to keep him now based on emergency centerfield availability.

SteveLV · November 13

I like Farmer, and I wonder whether the Twins FO might approach him with a contract offer that is lower than his projected Arb result in lieu of cutting him loose.

Bigfork Twins Guy · November 13

Kudos to the FO for building a solid roster. Now, make some quality decisions on the FA and trade front to make it even better.

NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin · November 13

Most of the hype around the Twins is about the offense and the number of young hitters who are already contributing. We were a consensus top-5 offense in baseball in the second half, probably top-2. For me, the pitching question is the most important as it pertains to the Twins' success in '24; the offense is going to be good.

Blyleven2011 · November 13

Roster rating seems high ...

Starting pitching would rate high , the bullpen at the end of the season rates better than the beginning of the season ...

The batting roster just doesn't have me believing it rates high , boom or bust , no disciplined clutch hitting with runners on base , to many strikeouts , baserunning has issues as well ...

Twins defense is decent but again are flawed , failure to throw to the right base or completely missing cut off man ...

I like my Twins but my eye test analysis above rates higher than the metrics ...

Jocko87 · November 13

14 minutes ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

Kudos to the FO for building a solid roster. Now, make some quality decisions on the FA and trade front to make it even better.

I got a lot of scoffing my general direction during the season for my statements that this was the most talented 40 man roster in our lifetimes. I did get some solid entrants from old-timers but my point is still solid, its the most talent assembled top to bottom in quite some time in Twins Territory.

Now the challenge is picking and choosing the best to keep and consolidating that talent into a killer 26 man major league roster. Scored one with Pablo, now do it again.

FlyingFinn · November 13

1 hour ago, Blyleven2011 said:

no disciplined clutch hitting with runners on base

Lewis with a lot of grand slams changed the hitting with runners on base problem in the 2nd half of the season.

Doctor Gast · November 13

20 minutes ago, FlyingFinn said:

Lewis with a lot of grand slams changed the hitting with runners on base problem in the 2nd half of the season.

IMO one late comer that broke the FO mold is not enough

PatPfund · November 13

As noted in some comments, this team improved dramatically when they started leaning on the younger players (Julien, Wallner, Lewis), and they should lean into that in the coming season. Plan around Martin being in CF (FYI, RH hitter, patient, steals bases big time). Wait in FA until a CF gets cheap (ideally MAT) and sign them as a mentor/4th OF. Groom Camargo, Polanco and Wallner at 1B (where you also have RH-hitting Miranda healthy and LH Kirilloff starting), play Julien mostly at 2b (his D was probably better than Jorge's near the season's end), keep Kepler in RF (unless a great deal comes for Max or Polo); trade Farmer (who does have value; check out the FA SS position, and some key teams that need 2b/SS). You aren't getting a Lopez-type by trading Farmer or Larnach (a couple I'd shop), but you might score a serviceable arm. The wild card is trading someone like Julien, Lee, Rodriguez, etc for a top starter, but even if don't, staying with in-house solutions and a cheap CF should leave FA money to sign a decent SP or two. (You don't need to "replace" Gray directly if you get healthy and/or improved production from the aggregate roster.)

Doctor Gast · November 13

But I'm encouraged with our roster. & the fact that we are heavily favored in the Central give us freedom to give Julien & Miranda time to perfect 1B & even Martin if he really proves to us in spring training that he's ready for the show in CF or anyone else new we may bring in.

Brandon · November 13

Does the 6th ranking or the rankings in general include contributions from players who won’t be back with the same team or is it based off of who is under contract/team control going into the offseason? The Twins are a high floor team with little changing this offseason with the exception of several bench players and the big one Sony Gray. The key will be to see how we rank after the offseason. Will LA go get more SPs to add separation from us? Will another team come out of nowhere to buy their way up? We are definitely entering the offseason in the best organizational shape I have seen in years. I do hope we trade for a good starting pitcher. The bench seems easier as we have several options already. We should be competitive in the playoffs next year and the division should be winnable as our younger players continue to improve.

chpettit19 · November 13

8 minutes ago, Brandon said:

Does the 6th ranking or the rankings in general include contributions from players who won’t be back with the same team or is it based off of who is under contract/team control going into the offseason? The Twins are a high floor team with little changing this offseason with the exception of several bench players and the big one Sony Gray. The key will be to see how we rank after the offseason. Will LA go get more SPs to add separation from us? Will another team come out of nowhere to buy their way up? We are definitely entering the offseason in the best organizational shape I have seen in years. I do hope we trade for a good starting pitcher. The bench seems easier as we have several options already. We should be competitive in the playoffs next year and the division should be winnable as our younger players continue to improve.

Based on current roster with projected playing time for next year. So guys like Canterino and Pierson Ohl are included while Sonny Gray is not.

Brandon · November 13

2 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Based on current roster with projected playing time for next year. So guys like Canterino and Pierson Ohl are included while Sonny Gray is not.

So we enter the offseason in a good spot but we don’t have much room to improve as we have ok bench players already and we are looking to raise the floor a little, but we will also subtract Farmer. The big area to improve is a trade for a Gray replacement. This means other teams around us likely have more chances to pass us and put distance on us but we should still be competitive which is what the owners want.

bigdave · November 13

With Polanco and Gallo removed from the roster, there's a $20 million savings. I'd keep Farmer, he's a super utility player who can be a long-term solution if there are injuries anywhere on the infield.

Cap'n Piranha · November 13

8 hours ago, miracleb said:

Polanco should be traded now...while there is value. Farmer....not sure you can get anything for him at this point. Kepler....may need to keep him now based on emergency centerfield availability.

Concur on trading Polanco—I think Julien is younger, cheaper, and better (the first two really aren’t debatable).

Farmer would absolutely return something of value—a year $7M contract for a high-level backup/low-level starting shortstop will find suitors. If the Twins aren’t sold on Castro/Lee/Lewis being Correa’s backup, they might just keep him.

Kepler has made it clear he won’t play CF anymore. If that’s the only reason to keep him on the roster, he won’t be.

Blyleven2011 · November 13

5 hours ago, FlyingFinn said:

Lewis with a lot of grand slams changed the hitting with runners on base problem in the 2nd half of the season.

This is true of Lewis but what about the other batters in the line up ,,,

If the lineup had better discipline and hit with runners on base we could score 900 plus runs per season and be a team to be reckoned with ...

If they don't make adjustments or change some philosophy of their game , the Twins lineup will not be respected by the other teams ...

Other teams know how to make adjustments to our hitters , we seem alittle slow in making the adjustments back ...

Beast · November 14

Having a top 10 roster before free agency doesn’t mean much when the FO already came out and said they’re not signing anybody significant. That will change, possibly significantly.

For this premature, meaningless ranking of rosters that aren’t finished to come to fruition, we need to find a way to keep some of these players on the field. Not sure if that’s factored into the projections. But, Lewis and Buxton missing weeks to months at a time nursing hamstrings, etc. is a big issue.

Mike Sixel · November 14

40 minutes ago, Blyleven2011 said:

This is true of Lewis but what about the other batters in the line up ,,,

If the lineup had better discipline and hit with runners on base we could score 900 plus runs per season and be a team to be reckoned with ...

If they don't make adjustments or change some philosophy of their game , the Twins lineup will not be respected by the other teams ...

Other teams know how to make adjustments to our hitters , we seem alittle slow in making the adjustments back ...

Or, they might hit less 2B and HR in their ABs and score less runs......

The team was MUCH better w/o Gallo and whomever at 3B when Lewis and Wallner were playing. Just that helps the team for a full year, most likely. Now add ANYTHING from 1B, and this is likely a top 10 offense (health, of course, being an issue). That includes almost nothing from CF.....

Hubie29 · November 14

Farmer is a blue collar, hard nosed team guy we need to resign. I would think he would be receptive to a reasonable offer after having one of his best years. Every team needs players like Kyle Farmer.

Time to move on from the thought of Miranda and Kiriloff in the long term plans. Package them in a trade deal for pitching or a CF.

Doctor Wu · November 14

Farmer is a real gamer and a handy player to have in case of the all too frequent injuries that happen. I'd rather trade Polanco, who has much more trade value, and may not age well with his own injury history. As far as the overall roster, yes, it's one of the best we've had in recent memory. I just wish they would find a way to cut down on those strikeouts, at least from among our hitters. For our own pitchers, the increase in striking out batters is more than welcome!

FlyingFinn · November 14

6 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

IMO one late comer that broke the FO mold is not enough

1 hour ago, Blyleven2011 said:

This is true of Lewis but what about the other batters in the line up ,,,

The stats just don't support that it was only Lewis in the 2nd half. Lewis seemed to energize everyone else as well as the Twins finished 14th among 30 MLB teams with 3.45 runners left in scoring position in 2023. (Source - teamrankings.com)

Fatbat · November 14

Lewis is contagious. Polo is invaluable in the locker room. He and Kepler are best friends so you would completely change the team dynamic by trading those guys. I would pick AK as the biggest possible comeback surprise for 24. He may have a monster season. Farmer is expendable if you put Polo in a Utility role with plans to bring Lee up if/when any infielder is injured. Simple math buys a front line SP to replace Gray. Trade Farmer for something that is payroll cheap or a prospect. Non tender Gordon or do something with him by training camp . Fill those 2 roster spots with pitching. Several ways to get 1 or 2 pitchers. (Budget of 15-20M in hand) to spend. Plan on 3 internal options in CF. The top (close to ready AAA options) all improve the batting lineup better than bringing in defensive specialist(s) at CF or 1B. Those types of moves also messes up the budget to buy pitching. This offseason is all about fine tuning. The youth movement is in mid swing (pun intended) 1. Lean on the 23 2nd half/postseason success. 2. Bring more of that youthful positivity into every days lineup. 3. Spend the budget$$$ available on something that you never have enough of. Pitching. (Many options availability out there) I hope the FO chooses wisely.
Last thought on the AAA guys most likely to get to the show. Lee, Martin, Severino…. They are contact hitters. (Yes, I know about the K rate of Severino) They get on base. They score runs. They don’t cost much $$$$.

Nine of twelve · November 14

Top 10! All right, that puts us in the top 1/3. Okay, well I guess that's better than being average. Slightly.

Major League Ready · November 14

12 hours ago, Hubie29 said:

Farmer is a blue collar, hard nosed team guy we need to resign. I would think he would be receptive to a reasonable offer after being a probably his best year. Every team needs players like Kyle Farmer.

Time to move on from the thought of Miranda and Kiriloff in the long term plans. Package them in a trade deal for pitching or a CF.

Farmer might be the last guy they need to extend. He will turn 34 next season and they have multiple players that can replace him for $6M less. He also would be competing for playing time with our number 2 rated prospect as well as our #7 rated prospect (Schobel) who probably has a higher ceiling. Of course, Lee has a much higher ceiling.

UK Twin · November 14

I do think fans of their own team can underestimate how good a roster their team has. Twins made a bit of a meal of winning the AL Central. No way should they have been under .500 midway through the season. I do think talent wise, our roster is top 10. 6th may be a little generous but by no means far fetched. Correa is one of the best SS's in the game. Despite having a poor season by his standards he was still a Gold Glove finalist. We have a genuine ace in Lopez with sound depth behind him. Lewis is very quickly becoming a hitter to be feared and pitched around. Next year, if we have a fully healthy, raking Correa hitting clean up behind Lewis (or vice versa) that will be one of the best 3-4 duo's in baseball.

I really like this roster. There are flaws (too many strikeouts the main one) but there's so much room for development. FO should use the trade market (like they did last off season) to add a SP and then add depth via FA.

Doctor Gast · November 14

15 hours ago, FlyingFinn said:

The stats just don't support that it was only Lewis in the 2nd half. Lewis seemed to energize everyone else as well as the Twins finished 14th among 30 MLB teams with 3.45 runners left in scoring position in 2023. (Source - teamrankings.com)

True Lewis's presence & clutch hitting sparked the offense. Nothing can drain the morale of a team when hitters come up & strike-out in clutch situations year after year especially with bases loaded. When Lewis's outside of the team's philosophy were able rejuvinate many Twins hitters. Even Jeffers was able to hit his 1st walk-off (although he was totally surprised & flabbergasted). But we still had too many SOs in clutch situations. If we want to be a serious contender this arqueic philosophy of hitting a HR every pitch has to be quickly abandoned.

JD-TWINS · November 14

On 11/13/2023 at 11:04 AM, SteveLV said:

I like Farmer, and I wonder whether the Twins FO might approach him with a contract offer that is lower than his projected Arb result in lieu of cutting him loose.

I like Farmer too:

On 11/13/2023 at 11:35 AM, NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin said:

Most of the hype around the Twins is about the offense and the number of young hitters who are already contributing. We were a consensus top-5 offense in baseball in the second half, probably top-2. For me, the pitching question is the most important as it pertains to the Twins' success in '24; the offense is going to be good.

What’s the difference between his probable arbitration bump to maybe $7.25M and some lower number ………maybe $5.4M? The whole reason the two sides negotiated arbitration into the bargaining agreement is so they (either side) don’t get unfairly leveraged.

$1.8M (or any negotiated $$ #) isn’t moving the needle on the budget.

Keep Farmer at the real number due to his capability at 3 positions & trade Polanco to shed the $10.5M he’s owed. Farmer is routinely available (other than when hit in the face - lost a month) 265 games over past 2 years ……..Polanco is not always healthy……190 games over past 2 years.

JD-TWINS · November 14

Just now, JD-TWINS said:

I like Farmer too:

What’s the difference between his probable arbitration bump to maybe $7.25M and some lower number ………maybe $5.4M? The whole reason the two sides negotiated arbitration into the bargaining agreement is so they (either side) don’t get unfairly leveraged.

$1.8M (or any negotiated $$ #) isn’t moving the needle on the budget.

Keep Farmer at the real number due to his capability at 3 positions & trade Polanco to shed the $10.5M he’s owed. Farmer is routinely available (other than when hit in the face - lost a month) 265 games over past 2 years ……..Polanco is not always healthy……190 games over past 2 years.

On 11/13/2023 at 11:35 AM, NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin said:

Most of the hype around the Twins is about the offense and the number of young hitters who are already contributing. We were a consensus top-5 offense in baseball in the second half, probably top-2. For me, the pitching question is the most important as it pertains to the Twins' success in '24; the offense is going to be good.

Don’t understand how the Staff is not up to speed? Losing Gray doesn’t help - understood!

We were 15-19 in Gray’s starts in ‘23. With a new arm, we have a good shot at equaling that success rate or better, especially with the offense you describe. The ERA will inflate & more HR/9 than Gray, but still competitive…….I AGREE, we should add an arm or two through various potential paths…….we’re not weak with existing roster though.

Potential Pen:

Balazovic - Thielbar - Funderburk - Alcala - Jax - Headrick - Stewart - Henriquez - Duran - Winder……..3-4 other guys on the fringe

Rotation:

Varland - Ober - Paddack - Ryan - Lopez

Cap'n Piranha · November 14

Unfortunately, the numbers by Fangraphs are inaccurate. Over the last 5 full seasons, league-wide WAR has never been below 999.6, or above 1000.4 (the average is 999.9); this certainly suggests that the WAR formula by design spits out 1000 in WAR. This makes sense, when you consider that anything a hitter does to increase their WAR decreases pitcher WAR, and vice versa.

When the figures Fangraphs came up with are totaled, it comes to 1063.5--clearly that's not going to actually happen. That number also doesn't include any free agents (which FG pegs at an additional 148 WAR), meaning fangraphs is somehow expecting more than 20% more WAR than is possible in these rankings. As such, I don't put much stock into these at all.

JD-TWINS · November 14

18 hours ago, bigdave said:

With Polanco and Gallo removed from the roster, there's a $20 million savings. I'd keep Farmer, he's a super utility player who can be a long-term solution if there are injuries anywhere on the infield.

I completely agree on Farmer.

Gallo is gone - Polanco is still hanging on for $10.5M……..agreed there as well, he needs to be part of a trade. Julien/Farmer in a platoon at 2B………Lee is coming by July 1 to some infield position.

Gray - Gallo - Polanco - Maeda - Mahle - Taylor - Solano are all gone and that’s approximately $52M!………arbitration guys will cost an additional $7-$8M up from last year.

If we can trade Polanco (to shed his $$) & maybe re-sign Solano for $3.5M the budget is around $155M - $52M + $7.5M + $3.5M = $114M at this point.

If we believe what we read…….before re-signing Solano…….we are at $111M & have $10M - $30M to spend and still reduce budget into range FO has stated as acceptable.

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