Edouard Julien is the French-Canadian God of Walks

[Cody Christie]

Former Red Sox great Kevin Youkilis was known as the Greek God of Walks for his ability to work the count and get on base. Now, the Twins may have a player following in his footsteps.

Image courtesy of Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports

There's a famous scene in the 2011 movie Moneyball, in which Brad Pitt's and Jonah Hill’s characters try to convince Oakland’s scouting staff of ways the team can replace the good players they are losing in free agency. It’s a back-and-forth conversation, but the basic premise is that the scout says, “Why do you like him?” And the front office duo responds, “He gets on base.” This scene oversimplifies sabermetric ideas at the time, but the concept holds true. Working a count and getting on base are tremendously valuable skills, and Edouard Julien seems to have mastered them.

Julien’s baseball journey has been anything but typical. A native of Quebec, he showed up at Auburn University as a teenager who spoke little English. He drew 38 walks in 251 plate appearances during his freshman season, and posted a .398 OBP. In 2019, he walked at an even higher rate, with 46 free passes in 294 plate appearances. Based on his collegiate performance, the Twins selected Julien in the 18th round of the 2019 MLB Draft. 

Julien wasn’t a highly-ranked player coming out of high school, and his college career didn’t elevate his draft stock to elite levels. It only garnered enough attention to net him a $493,000 bonus as a late-round pick by the Twins. He’s had to prove himself every step of the way, including his time after signing that deal.

His professional debut came in 2021, and he continued to show an exceptional eye at the plate. In 112 games, he coaxed 110 walks and posted a .434 OBP between Low A and High A. Minnesota sent him to Double A in 2022, where he was over a year younger than the average age of the competition. He drew 98 walks in 113 games and posted a .441 OBP. Julien didn’t make any national top-100 lists, but he rose on Twins lists, including being Twins Daily’s fifth-ranked prospect. It seemed as though he was on the cusp of impacting the big-league roster. 

During the World Baseball Classic, Julien announced himself to the baseball world. He destroyed the ball for Team Canada, including a 1.821 OPS, the highest total by any hitter in the tournament. Minnesota sent Julien to Triple-A St. Paul to start the year, and he posted a .435 OBP with 32 walks in 38 games. The Twins called him up in the middle of April for his first taste of the big leagues, and he’d move back and forth between Triple-A during the season’s early months. On June 10th, he rejoined the Twins and stayed at the big-league level for the balance of the campaign. During his rookie season, Julien hit .263/.381/.459, with 16 doubles and 16 home runs. Most notably, he continued to draw walks at an incredible rate. 

Julien’s walk rate was fifth-best among big-league hitters with 400 or more plate appearances. The players ahead of him on the list were Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, Kyle Schwarber, and Andrew McCutchen. Those are some of the most patient hitters in the game. Julien also had the lowest out-of-zone swing rate of any player in the league (see below). When a player works ahead in the count, they have a better chance to get a pitch they can hit for power. Julien posted a .529 OBP and a .987 OPS when he was ahead. It’s exciting to see the company Julien has already joined and to project what he might be able to accomplish in his sophomore season. 

Projection models can be fickle, especially for players with a specific skill set like Julien’s. Baseball Reference projects Julien will hit .267/.370/.462, with 55 walks in 404 PA. If I were a betting man, I’d take the over on his walks and OBP. Yet, there is also a chance that the league will catch up to Julien next season and not allow him to draw as many walks. He will need to continue to make adjustments, and there may be times of the year when he must be aggressive at the plate.

One adjustment facing Julien next season is his approach with two strikes. Last season, he was very passive in two-strike counts, which led to him taking a lot of called third strikes. Among MLB hitters, he had the lowest swing rate (42.7%) of any hitter with two strikes, ranking 3.3% lower than the next-most selective guys (Juan Soto and Matt Wallner). With two strikes, Julien hit .147/.298/.199 (.497), with 128 strikeouts in 235 plate appearances. He must be more aggressive in two-strike counts, to keep pitchers honest and moderate his high strikeout totals. 

Julien is a different style of hitter than the Twins have had in quite some time. He was a late-round steal in the draft and is quickly developing into the Canadian God of Walks. Why do the Twins like him? He gets on base, which could make for an exciting 2024 season. 

What are your expectations for Julien in 2024? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

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[DaveW44]

I hear way too much about Julian’s exceptional eye at the plate. Granted he walks a ton. But anyone with an exceptional eye at the plate would not watch nearly as many called third strikes as he does. That’s not a great eye, it’s standing in the box hoping the pitcher throws a ball. 
hopefully he can cut down on his strikeouts this season

[pierre75275]

I seem to recall several occasions last year when Julien was called out on pitches out of the zone on strike 3. Obviously not 128x but I think he will get a lot more of the close calls bc of his rep of having an excellent eye at the plate and not being a rookie. I would expect his 2 strike numbers to be better this yr and he is one guy I don't expect to regress.

[Karbo]

Most of the guys ahead of him are veterans with a reputation for having a "good eye". IMO the umps give some guys the benefit of the doubt on close pitches. Julian hasn't yet earned that. Which brings me to the question, when will MLB do something about calling balls and strikes!

[Old Crow]

More than several occaisons.

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, DaveW44 said:

I hear way too much about Julian’s exceptional eye at the plate. Granted he walks a ton. But anyone with an exceptional eye at the plate would not watch nearly as many called third strikes as he does. That’s not a great eye, it’s standing in the box hoping the pitcher throws a ball. 
hopefully he can cut down on his strikeouts this season

Agree it’s frustrating watching him with 2 strikes & “taking”!…….I get the feeling he’s just arrogant enough to think he has such a great eye that he’s taking balls in most cases and the calls are wrong when he gets rung up. At any rate, he needs to be more aggressive or at least get better at protecting the plate by fouling off pitches if they are too close to take. COACHING may need to step in to help get through this obvious problem.

[JD-TWINS]

53 minutes ago, pierre75275 said:

I seem to recall several occasions last year when Julien was called out on pitches out of the zone on strike 3. Obviously not 128x but I think he will get a lot more of the close calls bc of his rep of having an excellent eye at the plate and not being a rookie. I would expect his 2 strike numbers to be better this yr and he is one guy I don't expect to regress.

Agree, he got rung up a number of times when the pitch appeared out of the zone. Too many times though in the zone AND on pitches too close to take that were marginal. Julien isn’t Ted Williams so his reputation isn’t going to help for another 5 years - umpires are proud & they aren’t Twin’s fans! Their pride will have Eduard coming up #2 on close calls for some time to come. Robo-umps may soon come into play and have some influence over this issue?

[Otaknam]

Julien proved in 2023 that he belongs. He does need to be more aggressive with two strikes, and I think that will come with more experience. His strikeout totals are not high because of called strike threes that were out of the zone, as others have mentioned. He needs the old school protect the plate with two strikes attitude. But he is an on base machine with power, an obvious asset to the lineup. Hopefully his defense improves where he becomes at least league average. 

[Fatbat]

Julien will do just fine adjusting to how the league adjusts to his weaknesses. He will identify and crush the meat balls and the umps at some point will have to call a ball, a ball 4. Julien will have to crush more 2 strike pitches to get the pitchers to respect that. Julien will continue his development and have another great season IMHO.

[Trov]

He did get a lot of out of zone called strike three, and a lot right on the edge.  He did not swing at pitches out of the zone, mainly because he did not swing at any pitch right on the edge, for the most part.  However, that does lead to more called strike three.  You cannot applaud him for him not chasing, but get upset when he takes called third strikes that are close. You have to live with both.  If you want him to be more aggressive on 2 strikes he will have to chase more at times.  Really, where he can develop on 2 strikes is to learn to foul off the close pitches, or he can hopefully put more pitches in play early in counts.  My fear for him is that teams will start to try to get ahead expecting him to take early in counts, but I do not recall that being the case, if it was a meatball strike.  He was not Joe Mauer taking strike one down the pipe every time. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

39 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Agree it’s frustrating watching him with 2 strikes & “taking”!…….I get the feeling he’s just arrogant enough to think he has such a great eye that he’s taking balls in most cases and the calls are wrong when he gets rung up. At any rate, he needs to be more aggressive or at least get better at protecting the plate by fouling off pitches if they are too close to take. COACHING may need to step in to help get through this obvious problem.

I bet it is hard to program your brain differently for what to swing at in a 2 strike count, 

[roger]

Agree  with the above comments about X number of his strikeouts were in fact balls.  And many would have been ball 4.  Is there any way it can be determined how many of his strikeouts were on pitches out of the zone?  Is it a handful, a dozen or so, or more?

Also agree with the above comment that baseball needs to do something about this problem.

[MGX]

I'm very high on Julien's potential.

As noted above he has tremendous discipline, but needs to improve with two strikes & hitting LHP. After being labeled as a bat only or bat first player & then seeing the vast improvement with his play at 2B last year (1st 3 months -5 OAA & last three months +5 OAA) I'm confident he will improve the areas noted & become even a better hitter.

He looks like a top 3 hitter in our lineup & appears to be past the initial lack of comfort & feel for playing 2B.

[MMMordabito]

It's been over 50 years since the Twins had a guy walk 100 times.  Mauer, Knoblauch, Lawton and Chili Davis played horseshoes and hand grenades with the number.  Julien has a shot if he stays healthy, keeps a grip on the leadoff spot and improves a bit against lefties.

100 Walks and 100 Runs for Eddie in 2024!

[Karbo]

1 hour ago, JD-TWINS said:

Agree it’s frustrating watching him with 2 strikes & “taking”!…….I get the feeling he’s just arrogant enough to think he has such a great eye that he’s taking balls in most cases and the calls are wrong when he gets rung up. At any rate, he needs to be more aggressive or at least get better at protecting the plate by fouling off pitches if they are too close to take. COACHING may need to step in to help get through this obvious problem.

We were taught back in HS way back in the early 70s how to foul off balls that were close with 2 strikes. These guys are pro hitters. I would think if a kid in HS can learn to do this, these guys should also!

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

I bet it is hard to program your brain differently for what to swing at in a 2 strike count, 

Am sure it’s not easy but it’s his job. He’s got another season to start to improve - wish him luck!

[JD-TWINS]

1 minute ago, Karbo said:

We were taught back in HS way back in the early 70s how to foul off balls that were close with 2 strikes. These guys are pro hitters. I would think if a kid in HS can learn to do this, these guys should also!

He’s talented - he’ll be OK. It’s between his ears, a mentality that needs to be tweaked. Again, his coaches need to help him improve with this. A concern for me is that his demeanor seems very rigid with this issue & my concern is he may not be real open to any criticism. We’ll see.

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, JD-TWINS said:

At any rate, he needs to be more aggressive or at least get better at protecting the plate by fouling off pitches if they are too close to take. COACHING may need to step in to help get through this obvious problem.

The point of an at bat is to get on base or be a person to score runs. Julien is better at offense than any other Twin at this time. His strength is to force pitchers to come to him, which he does exceptionally well. Julien also does punish pitches within the strike zone. His weakness is making solid contact on pitches out of the strike zone, thus he takes those pitches. To swing at pitches off the plate would negate his strength as a hitter. The called third strikes off of the plate are not a problem. I would expect that Julien does improve on those pitches wholly in the strike zone with two strikes. It is important to remember that his exposure to baseball at a highly competitive level has only occurred in the last half dozen years. A player like Brooks Lee or Royce Lewis, for two examples, have a decade of experience against competitive players. Julien is relatively inexperienced and still is learning. The question really is how far he can improve in all areas of his game. 

There are generally three types of hitters that pitchers do not like to face. One is a guy who smashes the ball so hard and just seems frightening, Like Miguel Sano or Giancarlo Stanton. They are scary. Next are guys who hit line drives all over the place on your best pitches and worse on pitches out of the strike zone. Vladimir Guerrero comes to mind. The third is a guy who takes a ton of pitches and is very difficult to get out but can also go yard on you at any time. This is Julien. The Twins do not have either of the other two hitters at this time. Watch Julien bat against Verlander in the playoffs and look at Justin's face. He is, arguably, the best pitcher of this generation and Julien totally owns those at bats. 

Can julien maintain and even improve this season? This is the question, but right now he is the best offensive player on the team.

[jmlease1]

2 hours ago, DaveW44 said:

I hear way too much about Julian’s exceptional eye at the plate. Granted he walks a ton. But anyone with an exceptional eye at the plate would not watch nearly as many called third strikes as he does. That’s not a great eye, it’s standing in the box hoping the pitcher throws a ball. 
hopefully he can cut down on his strikeouts this season

Except they probably would: Julien got rung up on "strikes" that were out of the zone to the point that even other team's announcers were commenting. So that accounts for a few. Everyone is from time to time going to get rung up when they're looking for one pitch and the pitcher fools them with something else, which accounts for a few more. And Julien is holding off on marginal pitches at the edge of the zone that he doesn't think are goods pitches for him to hit. That a really strong approach for a rookie. He'll likely get better at spotting those marginal pitches at the edge of the zone and fouling them off as his career develops...but hopefully he also won't get rung up on a terrible call by an umpire as often as they recognize that he knows the zone as well as any hitter in the game (and there's either an electronic zone or a challenge system to correct this nonsense).

I thin he's going to have an excellent year. He's not just a guy hoping to get walked, because he swings hard at pitches in the zone and goes after pitches that he can do damage on. But his discipline will really help him because the way veteran pitchers have nailed young hitters year after year is by getting them to expand the zone and swing more and more at pitches that are off the plate or aren't ones the hitter can deal with.

the one thing he needs to work on is being effective against LHP. he barely faced any in MLB, but he got killed when he did. If he can get himself up to acceptable against lefties while destroying righties, he's going to be a monster.

[Fatbat]

Anyone know what Juliens splits are with 2 strikes LHP vs. RHP?

[Althebum82]

Arraez has/had the unique ability to get the bat on the ball for a high OBP, but walked far less and generally did so with a lower slugging percentage.  Gotta love the future progression in store for  this diamond in the rough!

[tony&rodney]

11 minutes ago, Karbo said:

We were taught back in HS way back in the early 70s how to foul off balls that were close with 2 strikes. These guys are pro hitters. I would think if a kid in HS can learn to do this, these guys should also!

Those were different times. I remember pitching to those hitters. It was almost always the easiest outs of any game. The batters would be swinging for contact and bounce one back to the mound or hit a meek dribbler for an automatic out to an infielder or weakly pop out. For me, pitching in the 60s and 70s was easier than pitching in the 90s because of those weak two strike swings. 

My success as a hitter was compromised by my contact-oriented swing with two strikes, which I often felt affected my confidence as a batter. I always hit a very weak .300 and was more a defensive player and pitcher as a result. I do think that batters can be forceful and still slightly more attuned to making contact with two strikes and this was a big change in the game several decades ago. 

I expect Julien will make some very slight adjustments this season and punishing more pitches completely in the zone may be seen more often. I don't want to see him offering at those pitches at the edge of the zone or just off of the plate. Julien is a force at the plate and the strike zone mastery is his gold.

[tony&rodney]

Sorry .... just wanted to add one thing. Look at the zone charts of a couple of batters and then Julien on mlb.com. You will see that Julien has zero home runs on pitches out of the zone, he has very few hits on pitches out of the zone, and his quality of contact out of the strike zone is poor. When you look at any number of other hitters you will see vastly different results. Others have some success swinging at borderline pitches. Julien won't last long in the big leagues swinging at pitches out of or on the edge of the strike zone. He knows what he is doing. 

[DJL44]

56 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

The point of an at bat is to get on base or be a person to score runs. Julien is better at offense than any other Twin at this time. His strength is to force pitchers to come to him, which he does exceptionally well. Julien also does punish pitches within the strike zone. His weakness is making solid contact on pitches out of the strike zone, thus he takes those pitches. To swing at pitches off the plate would negate his strength as a hitter. The called third strikes off of the plate are not a problem. I would expect that Julien does improve on those pitches wholly in the strike zone with two strikes. It is important to remember that his exposure to baseball at a highly competitive level has only occurred in the last half dozen years. A player like Brooks Lee or Royce Lewis, for two examples, have a decade of experience against competitive players. Julien is relatively inexperienced and still is learning. The question really is how far he can improve in all areas of his game. 

There are generally three types of hitters that pitchers do not like to face. One is a guy who smashes the ball so hard and just seems frightening, Like Miguel Sano or Giancarlo Stanton. They are scary. Next are guys who hit line drives all over the place on your best pitches and worse on pitches out of the strike zone. Vladimir Guerrero comes to mind. The third is a guy who takes a ton of pitches and is very difficult to get out but can also go yard on you at any time. This is Julien. The Twins do not have either of the other two hitters at this time. Watch Julien bat against Verlander in the playoffs and look at Justin's face. He is, arguably, the best pitcher of this generation and Julien totally owns those at bats. 

Can julien maintain and even improve this season? This is the question, but right now he is the best offensive player on the team.

I think you're underrating Royce Lewis but otherwise agree.

Julien does have a hole in his swing down and in and off the plate. If he didn't strike out looking on some of those pitches the most likely outcome would be a strike out swinging. Because the pitch is actually a ball I'm in complete agreement with Julien that he shouldn't swing at pitches in that location.

[Fatbat]

46 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Sorry .... just wanted to add one thing. Look at the zone charts of a couple of batters and then Julien on mlb.com. You will see that Julien has zero home runs on pitches out of the zone, he has very few hits on pitches out of the zone, and his quality of contact out of the strike zone is poor. When you look at any number of other hitters you will see vastly different results. Others have some success swinging at borderline pitches. Julien won't last long in the big leagues swinging at pitches out of or on the edge of the strike zone. He knows what he is doing. 

If he just fouls off some of those borderline pitches, he is either going to increase his walk rate, BA or both.  A couple foul balls and the pitchers will get one over the plate or try to wipe him out which gets him the walk when he lays off it. 

[Riverbrian]

dieu des promenades

[chpettit19]

Julien's problem isn't his swing decisions on the edges of the zone no matter how many strikes there are, it's all about his results in the zone. He swung at 61.3% of pitches in the zone last year. League average was 67%. He made contact on 77.6% of those swings. League average is 82%. His whiff% was 29.1% while league average was 24.8%. His meatball swing% was 74.5% compared to a league average of 76.1%. If he swings and connects on more pitches in the zone he'll be just fine no matter how many pitches he gets on the edges or how many 3rd strikes he watches on the edge.

Julien knows what pitches he can handle and which he can't. Swinging at the ones you can handle and not swinging at the ones you can't is what all hitters should do. His growth will come from being able to handle more pitches, not changing what pitches he swings at. Being more successful with his swings is the fix, not swinging more with 2 strikes.

[Blyleven2011]

3 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Agree it’s frustrating watching him with 2 strikes & “taking”!…….I get the feeling he’s just arrogant enough to think he has such a great eye that he’s taking balls in most cases and the calls are wrong when he gets rung up. At any rate, he needs to be more aggressive or at least get better at protecting the plate by fouling off pitches if they are too close to take. COACHING may need to step in to help get through this obvious problem.

But falvey likes strikeouts  , 

Yes He gets on base by contact or walks , would like to see those 2 strikes strikeouts cut down  , like you mentioned protect the plate better , swing if it's close ...

Adjustments need to be made and I doubt coaching will help ( they can suggest ) , it's up to him to be alittle more aggressive with 2 strikes , I'd rather see a swinging strike three ...

 

[chpettit19]

I see a lot of people suggesting "just fouling off close pitches." How easy do people think it is to "just foul off" a major league pitch? Do people have examples of people who do it regularly that they can point to as an example of it being a true skill and strategy?

[tony&rodney]

Fouling off pitches regularly on purpose isn't really a thing. We can forget about it .... one less item to worry about.