Am I crazy? SP Trade proposal.

[Joe A. Preusser]

 I think this looks pretty good.  I know trade values are not necessary spot on, but I think the Marlins WOULD do this and the Twins SHOULD.  Thoughts?

[umterp23]

No.

 

 

[Joe A. Preusser]

10 minutes ago, umterp23 said:

No.

 

 

No to the trade, or no I am not crazy?

[Jocko87]

Kinda goes to show how bad the trade value site is.  It’s fun to match rosters but the model…is bad.

The Marlins would do this in a nanosecond and Falvine would be shot out of Minnesota in a cannon.

[TopGunn#22]

That's probably what it would cost (or very close to what it would cost) and it's just too rich for my taste.  And now that two legit targets for the Twins have signed elsewhere (Giolito & Montas) the pickings are starting to get slimmer for our favorite baseball team.  Thanks for submitting !! 

[chpettit19]

I think that's WAY too much for the Twins to give up, and I think it's more than it'd actually cost to get Luzardo. If Polanco and Kepler are worth so little that you have to attach 2 global top-100 prospects to them to get Luzardo the Twins should just keep them because they're worth far more to the Twins than that. This trade makes both the 2024 Twins and future Twins teams worse.

[Joe A. Preusser]

Interesting feedback so far.  I didn't expect so see much "too much to pay" sentiment.  

I don't know anything about the Marlin's farm system, so I purposely left the trade in favor of Miami.  But I would expect the Twins to extract more value coming back.  

The price is definitely steep.  But just think what you'd be getting:

- top of the rotation starter

- three years of arbitration control

- throws left-handed

- friends with our other top of the rotation starter

 

[RpR]

Just think of what you would be losing; losing proposition.

[SteveLV]

Huge overpay, and the Marlins don't want those 2 Vet salaries.  Maybe one, but not both, IMO.

[harmony55]

The Marlins are unlikely to add $15 million to their 2024 payroll by acquiring one year of Max Kepler and one year and an option of Jorge Polanco (two players past their 30th birthdays).

[ashbury]

One can construct balanced trade proposals that both teams would say no to.  This seems like such a proposal.

[gunnarthor]

Luzardo for two top prospects sounds right. I'm stupid high on Lee and pitchers are fragile so I wouldn't do the trade but it's not crazy.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

If you started with Polanco and Lee for Luzardo, with maybe a smaller minor league add, I think it is more realistic for both sides.  Marlins don't want both Polanco and Kepler because of salary.  Lee AND Rodriguez are too much to give up because of future value and needs for the Twins. 

[Jocko87]

51 minutes ago, ashbury said:

One can construct balanced trade proposals that both teams would say no to.  This seems like such a proposal.

The Marlins jump on this in half a second.  They get two top 100 prospects (one top twenty) and two solid vets that can still be flipped?  The payroll wouldn't even cross their minds, I wouldn't even call my boss before I accepted.  If I was in trouble I'd flip Polo and Kep for a couple Top 200 pitching prospects and call it a day.  It would be a massive haul.

Enormous overpay.

[Joe A. Preusser]

Again, not the takes I expected, but very interesting.  

I kinda feel like many of you are overvaluing prospects and selling JL's impact short.  Regardless, if it is accurate that we could get him for much less, I sure hope we pull the trigger and get it done.  A rotation headlined by him and Lopez should win the division and set you up well for the playoffs every year.  

[Twinsgypsy]

I think it would ludicrous to trade two good starters and 2 top 100 prospects for one top of the rotation pitcher. You might as well put up the surrender flag for a chance to go to the playoffs.

[TwinsDr2021]

The way you have it, I believe the Marlins say yes, and look to flip Polanco or Kepler to get a even bigger haul. From a Twins perspective they would only have to add Polanco or Kepler, not both.

the price for a 26 year old pitcher with 3 three of control left is going to be crazy high, The cost for two years of control for a 26 year old pitcher was the AL batting champion.

[chpettit19]

12 hours ago, Joe A. Preusser said:

Interesting feedback so far.  I didn't expect so see much "too much to pay" sentiment.  

I don't know anything about the Marlin's farm system, so I purposely left the trade in favor of Miami.  But I would expect the Twins to extract more value coming back.  

The price is definitely steep.  But just think what you'd be getting:

- top of the rotation starter

- three years of arbitration control

- throws left-handed

- friends with our other top of the rotation starter

 

I'm not sure why we should care all that much about him being left-handed or being friends with Lopez. I'm not giving up extra resources for either of those things. Only things that matter are being a top of the rotation starter with 3 years of control left. 

Did you see the reports about the possible Marlins-Royals trade? There were some pretty in depth ones that made it sound like it was basically Pasquantino for Luzardo and the Royals owner shot it down and paid for Wacha instead. I'd think a more comparable trade involving the Twins based on that rumor would be Julien for Luzardo. Would you trade Polanco, Kepler, and 2 top 100 prospects for Julien?

[Cory Engelhardt]

Ok, I'm only sharing this as a nagging thought I've had over the last few days.

I THINK the Twins are waiting to see if the White Sox or Astros (or even Cleveland bites first with their 3 starters (Cease, Valdez and Bieber) make a move first, either to them or to another team, to get the floodgates open a bit. Think about this;

All 3 are very heavily available this offseason for the right price, or at least Cease and Bieber are. Valdez, I guess we will see, but his name has been out there.

I'd argue, at least Cease in particular, is VERY MUCH a perfect fit for the Twins, even if it would be trading in-division. He is still young, he is coming off (for him) a down year, but also very much as a ton of upside that could be tweaked into a top of the rotation arm. He also is only team controlled through 2025, so theorhetically he will be cheaper to acquire than Jesus Luzardo, in comparison. Plus, Chicago does need just more in terms of overall talent in the organization.

I don't know what it would cost, but I wouldn't be shocked to have the name they acquire be more of a NAME compared to a younger prospect. And I'm someone who would love Bryan Woo or Max Meyer. 

I compare to the pitchers they've acquired in the past; Maeda, Odorizzi, Gray, even Lopez. None of them were PROSPECTS, and all of them had a smaller number of years of control. Just has me thinking, maybe they go down this road again.

[Parfigliano]

40 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I'm not sure why we should care all that much about him being left-handed or being friends with Lopez. I'm not giving up extra resources for either of those things. Only things that matter are being a top of the rotation starter with 3 years of control left. 

Did you see the reports about the possible Marlins-Royals trade? There were some pretty in depth ones that made it sound like it was basically Pasquantino for Luzardo and the Royals owner shot it down and paid for Wacha instead. I'd think a more comparable trade involving the Twins based on that rumor would be Julien for Luzardo. Would you trade Polanco, Kepler, and 2 top 100 prospects for Julien?

No.

[Parfigliano]

Marlins would accept the trade during the phone call to make it and immeadiately flip one/both Kepler Polanco to another team.  Twins would be set back for years

 

[clone52]

You'd have to get a lot more if you included both Lee and Rodriguez.

I wish the Twins could get Luzardo or Mitch Keller without giving up Lee or Rodriguez, but that probably isn't happening.  I'd probably choose not to trade either one, but if you told me I had to get Luzardo, here is what I would offer up.

Polanco or Kepler (Marlins choice)
Brooks Lee (If the Marlins get Kepler) or Rodriguez (If the Marlins choose Polanco)
Festa or Raya
Another low minors/high upside guy.
 

[Joe A. Preusser]

Sorry, I can't accept the reasoning there.  Julien is a great player and I'm excited we have him, but Luzardo easily has 3 times the value.  Top of the rotation starters cost controlled for 3 years are like unicorns.  It will (and should) hurt to acquire them. That doesn't mean it sets us back, like some have suggested, it means we leverage areas of strength (INF, OF depth and farm system) to completely set up our rotation for years to come.  

And, yes, maybe being friends with Lopez isn't all that meaningful.  But being left handed certainly is.  

[Otaknam]

No to trading Brooks Lee for anyone! 

[Joe A. Preusser]

8 minutes ago, clone52 said:

You'd have to get a lot more if you included both Lee and Rodriguez.

I wish the Twins could get Luzardo or Mitch Keller without giving up Lee or Rodriguez, but that probably isn't happening.  I'd probably choose not to trade either one, but if you told me I had to get Luzardo, here is what I would offer up.

Polanco or Kepler (Marlins choice)
Brooks Lee (If the Marlins get Kepler) or Rodriguez (If the Marlins choose Polanco)
Festa or Raya
Another low minors/high upside guy.
 

Yeah, I see the merit of this type of package.  I purposefully chose not to add any pitching prospects in order to keep our pitching pipeline moving, but you could definitely go in the other direction.  

But I don't think your proposals are enough, especially if you are only including 1 or Polo and Kep.  You could possibly sub in Festa AND Raya for Rodriguez.  Or sub in Raya OR Festa for Polo OR Kep.  

 

There's certainly plenty of play in both directions, but I really feel like everyone here is WAY undervaluing Luzardo.  

[Joe A. Preusser]

8 minutes ago, Otaknam said:

No to trading Brooks Lee for anyone! 

Otahni and 700M for him straight up?

 

Seriously though, I get the hype.  I believe Lee is going to be a very good MLBer, maybe an all-star.  But the only current Twins prospect I consider untouchable right now is Walker Jenkins.  

[MGX]

As many have said above this would be a huge overpay for the Twins. I like Luzardo & he would be nice for the Twins, but his BTV value is inflated IMO. The Twins would be much better off keeping Polanco, Kepler, Lee & Rodriguez & signing an FA pitcher like Clevinger.

Jesus Luzardo
2023 - 3.58 ERA - 1.215 WHIP - HR/9 - 1.1
Career - 4.18 ERA - 1.253 WHIP - HR/9 1.3

Mike Clevinger (Fangraphs estimates 2yrs/24 million)
2023 - 3.77 ERA - 1.226 WHIP - HR/9 - 1.1
Career - 3.45 ERA - 1.194 WHIP - HR/9 - 1.1

How much incremental value does Luzardo add over a mid-level FA like Clevinger? A little, but he doesn't make our team that much better when compared to some of the mid-level FA SP's we could sign. If you create a hole in RF that is unlikely to be filled in via FA or trade the team is in worse shape. 

I know he's under control for multiple years, but to me that isn't as important. We have prospects developing & there are always FA SP's available.

In 2023 Sonny Gray was one of the best SP's in MLB & yet the Twins were 1 game under .500 at the end of June. I'm not sold at all that Luzardo can pitch even as effectively as Gray did last year. The primary reason the Twins played much better from July 1st through the end of the year was the development of the young core of position players & Kepler's big 2nd half.

[chpettit19]

3 hours ago, Joe A. Preusser said:

Sorry, I can't accept the reasoning there.  Julien is a great player and I'm excited we have him, but Luzardo easily has 3 times the value.  Top of the rotation starters cost controlled for 3 years are like unicorns.  It will (and should) hurt to acquire them. That doesn't mean it sets us back, like some have suggested, it means we leverage areas of strength (INF, OF depth and farm system) to completely set up our rotation for years to come.  

And, yes, maybe being friends with Lopez isn't all that meaningful.  But being left handed certainly is.  

3 times more value than 6 years of control of a kid who just put of 2.6 bWAR in 109 games while OPSing .839? Yeah, I think your valuations are way off. I am one who has suggested that your proposed trade would set the Twins back. What OF depth? If you trade your starting RFer and your top 100 prospect who's already on your 40-man roster who is playing RF and where is the depth behind them? Add to that trading your current starting DH/2B and the guy who's providing the depth behind him and who's starting at DH/2B and where is the depth behind them? Trading 2 starters and the guys providing depth behind them sets you back.

https://theathletic.com/5141385/2023/12/15/royals-free-agency-rosenthal/  I don't know if you have an Athletic subscription so I'll include this paragraph:
"Once the Royals knew they could sign free-agent outfielder Hunter Renfroe, who on Friday agreed to a two-year, $13 million deal, they were faced with a difficult choice in their pursuit of another starting pitcher. They could trade first baseman/DH Vinnie Pasquantino to the Marlins for left-hander Jesús Luzardo, a deal sources said was discussed at the winter meetings. Or they could sign right-hander Michael Wacha, a second-tier free agent who was in some demand...The front office consulted Sherman. The owner chose to keep pushing forward. And on Friday, the Royals reached agreement with Wacha on a two-year, $32 million contract."

The Royals, by all reports, could've had Luzardo for Pasquantino. Is Pasquantino that much better than Julien? Julien is controlled for an extra year. Is Pasquantino equal in trade value to Polanco, Kepler, Lee, and Rodriguez? I don't think so. I think you've overestimated the cost of Luzardo.

Being left handed does not add any extra value to his trade cost. Is he going to get paid more because he's left handed? It doesn't add anything at all to his value. You don't have to pay more for a left hander than a right hander of the same talent level. It's not meaningful in terms of trade acquisition cost. And I don't think it's meaningful in terms of your rotation talent either. Why does it matter which hand they throw with if they can get outs?

[jorgenswest]

I think the Marlins will get a better headliner in the deal. Pasquantino is better than any of the 4 the proposed Twins offer. The Twins need to do better than Lee.

[Linus]

I would offer Julien and SWR. If that isn’t enough then go sign Clevinger.