Am I crazy? SP Trade proposal.

[TwinsDr2021]

6 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

But it's Falveys move, going back to Cleveland. Sure, everyone gets a lucky draft pick that they can wait 7 years for every now and then but it's a terrible way to build a ML staff. Falvey is exceptional at finding 23 year olds with excess value. They didn't luck into that staff last year.

It's a fun exercise to go through the Cleveland transaction logs during the Falvey regime. Lots of familiar names.

Correct they didn't luck into the staff, they traded a first round pick (high prospect), they traded an all star and the AL batting champion, they traded their top pitching prospect (Graterol), they traded two top prospects (ECS, Steer), they traded their closer, drafted 1, and had amazing trade of a FA to be.

That is not luck, but it wasn't cheap in terms of prospect capital. I also didn't say it wasn't good or the correct way to go about it. I say if they don't start developing pitching the price is going to be high.

[Jocko87]

53 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Correct they didn't luck into the staff, they traded a first round pick (high prospect), they traded an all star and the AL batting champion, they traded their top pitching prospect (Graterol), they traded two top prospects (ECS, Steer), they traded their closer, drafted 1, and had amazing trade of a FA to be.

That is not luck, but it wasn't cheap in terms of prospect capital. I also didn't say it wasn't good or the correct way to go about it. I say if they don't start developing pitching the price is going to be high.

Those prices are pennies on the free agent dollar.  When you lay it out like that, I don’t miss a single asset sent.

[clone52]

21 hours ago, MGX said:

Payroll really shouldn't be an issue. We're already down quite a bit from last year & even a signing or two in that range wouldn't get us back to last years level. Additionally, if we do trade Polanco for say prospects that just about pays for Clevinger's salary right there.

 

I hope you're right, but we know they are trying to cut payroll.  We don't know by how much.  Right now they are sitting at about $125 M.

You're right, though, if they trade Polanco (or Kepler), it would cover it.

[EGFTShaw]

On 1/3/2024 at 7:16 AM, Joe A. Preusser said:

Again, not the takes I expected, but very interesting.  

I kinda feel like many of you are overvaluing prospects and selling JL's impact short.  Regardless, if it is accurate that we could get him for much less, I sure hope we pull the trigger and get it done.  A rotation headlined by him and Lopez should win the division and set you up well for the playoffs every year.  

But then again you did Heat things up on the cold Hot Stove here in Twinkie land...

Major props for that. 

BTV actually does a pretty good job in estimating trade values, but as with all simulators certain things will be off.  If you pop on the BTV site look around where they evaluate actual trades against their model.  If nothing else, it is a pretty interesting assessment.

Pull Lee and one of Keplar/Polanco out of that mix and I think it is more balanced and maybe the Twins toss in some A level talent that the Marlins always seem to develop in to Trade Gold.

If I was trading Kepler or Polanco, I would look at this aspect: 

Which one do I keep that provides me with the best insurance against injury.  I think that's Kepler.  I love Polanco a lot, but either he or Farmer goes.  Polanco could easily become a better hitting and definitely step into a starting role than Farmer.  We have outfield depth as well, but no similar comparison at the moment to the Farmer/Polanco dynamic.

This has to be the first Hot Stove season in a very long time where I am bored.  The core of this team is good, very good I think.  If we can flip some of our duplicating talent for another PLopez type, (a pitcher that moves into the top two spots), then great.  I don't want to trade for a number 4 or 5, I would rather we use our pipeline for that.

We can't simply think of this next year, but I want us to dominate the Central for the next 5 years so that Chicago, Cleveland, Detroit and Kansas City are demoralized. 

*insert Dr Evil laugh*

[Trov]

On 1/3/2024 at 10:03 AM, MGX said:

As many have said above this would be a huge overpay for the Twins. I like Luzardo & he would be nice for the Twins, but his BTV value is inflated IMO. The Twins would be much better off keeping Polanco, Kepler, Lee & Rodriguez & signing an FA pitcher like Clevinger.

Jesus Luzardo
2023 - 3.58 ERA - 1.215 WHIP - HR/9 - 1.1
Career - 4.18 ERA - 1.253 WHIP - HR/9 1.3

Mike Clevinger (Fangraphs estimates 2yrs/24 million)
2023 - 3.77 ERA - 1.226 WHIP - HR/9 - 1.1
Career - 3.45 ERA - 1.194 WHIP - HR/9 - 1.1

How much incremental value does Luzardo add over a mid-level FA like Clevinger? A little, but he doesn't make our team that much better when compared to some of the mid-level FA SP's we could sign. If you create a hole in RF that is unlikely to be filled in via FA or trade the team is in worse shape. 

I know he's under control for multiple years, but to me that isn't as important. We have prospects developing & there are always FA SP's available.

In 2023 Sonny Gray was one of the best SP's in MLB & yet the Twins were 1 game under .500 at the end of June. I'm not sold at all that Luzardo can pitch even as effectively as Gray did last year. The primary reason the Twins played much better from July 1st through the end of the year was the development of the young core of position players & Kepler's big 2nd half.

Okay, why are you comparing Luzardo and Clevinger?  Luzardo is 26 is on the rise of his pitching career, and Clevinger is 33 on the fall of his career.  They should not be compared in any way, even more so on their career numbers.  I am not saying Twins should do trade proposed, but to use an aging veteran that is on the back of career and compare him to guy entering his prime should not be done. 

[Jocko87]

4 hours ago, EGFTShaw said:

But then again you did Heat things up on the cold Hot Stove here in Twinkie land...

Major props for that. 

BTV actually does a pretty good job in estimating trade values, but as with all simulators certain things will be off.  If you pop on the BTV site look around where they evaluate actual trades against their model.  If nothing else, it is a pretty interesting assessment.

Pull Lee and one of Keplar/Polanco out of that mix and I think it is more balanced and maybe the Twins toss in some A level talent that the Marlins always seem to develop in to Trade Gold.

If I was trading Kepler or Polanco, I would look at this aspect: 

Which one do I keep that provides me with the best insurance against injury.  I think that's Kepler.  I love Polanco a lot, but either he or Farmer goes.  Polanco could easily become a better hitting and definitely step into a starting role than Farmer.  We have outfield depth as well, but no similar comparison at the moment to the Farmer/Polanco dynamic.

This has to be the first Hot Stove season in a very long time where I am bored.  The core of this team is good, very good I think.  If we can flip some of our duplicating talent for another PLopez type, (a pitcher that moves into the top two spots), then great.  I don't want to trade for a number 4 or 5, I would rather we use our pipeline for that.

We can't simply think of this next year, but I want us to dominate the Central for the next 5 years so that Chicago, Cleveland, Detroit and Kansas City are demoralized. 

*insert Dr Evil laugh*

I think the Marlins would be stuck on Lee most likely.  They have a desperate need at short and someone like Julien is a tough fit with Arraez already there.  

I’d hate to lose Farmer off this team but I could see a play with maybe Farmer and Erod would be very interesting to me and move them off Lee.  Then Polo staying makes better sense.  I don’t know that the Fish would do something without addressing shortstop. 

[Mike Sixel]

On 1/3/2024 at 10:03 AM, jorgenswest said:

I think the Marlins will get a better headliner in the deal. Pasquantino is better than any of the 4 the proposed Twins offer. The Twins need to do better than Lee.

Brooks Lee is a top 20 prospect....so, ummm, better than that plus another top 50 prospect and two starters they can keep or flip for more prospects?

[Mike Sixel]

I'll say this.....if the Seattle deal for Castillo is the comparison (and it likely is, as he was better but had less control), then this is the price.......though I thought at the time Seattle over paid.

[mnfireman]

On 1/3/2024 at 8:41 PM, Joe A. Preusser said:

Man, Arraez out up 5 WAR last year, even with his "defensive limitations".  I kinda feel like you're selling him short and using that to make your argument that Luzardo should be had for much less.  Julien is an absolute stud and I'm so excited he is part of our team for a long time.  But top end starters on team friendly contracts really are worth a lot, and Julien straight up just isn't enough.  

Depends on which site you use for WAR....FanGraphs has him at 3.4 fWAR last season - the same as Willy Adames (gets most of his value from his defense).

[Mike Sixel]

13 minutes ago, mnfireman said:

Depends on which site you use for WAR....FanGraphs has him at 3.4 fWAR last season - the same as Willy Adames (gets most of his value from his defense).

Also, Julien only played 109 games....if he plays 150 at that rate, he puts up 4.2 fWAR.....with more years of control left than Arraez, a lot more. 

I don't know that people understand how good Julien and Wallner were last year in their limited playing time.

[Joe A. Preusser]

3 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Also, Julien only played 109 games....if he plays 150 at that rate, he puts up 4.2 fWAR.....with more years of control left than Arraez, a lot more. 

I don't know that people understand how good Julien and Wallner were last year in their limited playing time.

No question in my mind they were both fantastic.  Wasn't trying to knock Julien at all.  

Just really really high on Luzardo.  

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, Joe A. Preusser said:

No question in my mind they were both fantastic.  Wasn't trying to knock Julien at all.  

Just really really high on Luzardo.  

that wasn't aimed at you at all.

Luzarado was about the 25th best pitcher last year....so I get why you want him. I don't get why Miami would trade him w/o the kind of insane haul you point out. I would NOT make that trade, but I get why that might be the price (again, I think Seattle overpaid for Castillo). 

[mnfireman]

15 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Also, Julien only played 109 games....if he plays 150 at that rate, he puts up 4.2 fWAR.....with more years of control left than Arraez, a lot more. 

I don't know that people understand how good Julien and Wallner were last year in their limited playing time.

I was referring to Arraez's WAR.

At FanGraphs Julien had 2.8 fWAR, Arraez 3.4. At 150 games Julien would have 3.9 fWAR, so yes he easily replaced Arraez's value last season.

[tony&rodney]

Wonder how the Twins are looking at fitting both Brooks Lee and Royce Lewis into the same lineup? I don't see either as fitting at second base but many others do. Lewis would be a good first baseman in my opinion. Seems like a thought to push off into the future right now. Twins Daily and folks around the organization seem to think Lewis is a superstar and is off limits. Just wonder about how other teams feel and whether they have probed about Lewis? Scoring runs is huge and thus Julien has big value. 

[mnfireman]

Just now, tony&rodney said:

 Scoring runs is huge and thus Julien has big value. 

Julien scored 60 runs in 109 games, about 89 over a full season. In 2023 89 runs scored was 35th in MLB, not superstar level by any means.

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, mnfireman said:

I was referring to Arraez's WAR.

At FanGraphs Julien had 2.8 fWAR, Arraez 3.4. At 150 games Julien would have 3.9 fWAR, so yes he easily replaced Arraez's value last season.

I understood that....I was pointing out Julien was as good or better....

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, mnfireman said:

Julien scored 60 runs in 109 games, about 89 over a full season. In 2023 89 runs scored was 35th in MLB, not superstar level by any means.

I don't think simply looking at runs scored is telling you how valuable a player is to a team's offense. Not a very useful stat at all on it's own.

[mnfireman]

6 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I don't think simply looking at runs scored is telling you how valuable a player is to a team's offense. Not a very useful stat at all on it's own.

I understand this, I was replying to a previous comment. You maybe should have replied to the original comment. 

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, mnfireman said:

Julien scored 60 runs in 109 games, about 89 over a full season. In 2023 89 runs scored was 35th in MLB, not superstar level by any means.

I'm not sure how "big value" made Julien a superstar. I did not intend to suggest that status. i was merely pointing out that his emergence at the front of the lineup was important for scoring runs. In my opinion, Julien is an important cog in the Twins lineup. 

[chpettit19]

17 minutes ago, mnfireman said:

I understand this, I was replying to a previous comment. You maybe should have replied to the original comment. 

I was replying to yours because you took "scoring runs is important" so literally that you only took into account the number of runs he scored instead of his overall offensive impact to the team as a whole scoring runs, which is the actual important thing.

[jorgenswest]

5 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Brooks Lee is a top 20 prospect....so, ummm, better than that plus another top 50 prospect and two starters they can keep or flip for more prospects?

I think the headline of the deal is critical and Pasquantino is a better headliner than Lee right now..

Brooks Lee was ranked 18th by MLB last year. We should be hopeful but here is some perspective. Look at the number 18s in the 5 year span 2014-2018. By now these players will have exhausted rule 5 status and options. Only one played in the majors last year.

2014 Alberto Almora (3.3)

2015 Blake Swihart (-0.3)

2016 Nomar Mazara (1.2)

2017 Lewis Brinson (-3.6)

2018 Alex Reyes (2.7)

Reyes is the only one left playing.

It is encouraging to have a number 18 prospect but most of these guys don’t have an impactful career. Until Lee shows solid success in the majors or destroys AAA pitching, Pasquantino is a better bet to have an impactful career. Lee’s wRC+ of 120 in AA and 78 in AAA don’t suggest an impactful career. 

 

 

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

29 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

I think the headline of the deal is critical and Pasquantino is a better headliner than Lee right now..

Brooks Lee was ranked 18th by MLB last year. We should be hopeful but here is some perspective. Look at the number 18s in the 5 year span 2014-2018. By now these players will have exhausted rule 5 status and options. Only one played in the majors last year.

2014 Alberto Almora (3.3)

2015 Blake Swihart (-0.3)

2016 Nomar Mazara (1.2)

2017 Lewis Brinson (-3.6)

2018 Alex Reyes (2.7)

Reyes is the only one left playing.

It is encouraging to have a number 18 prospect but most of these guys don’t have an impactful career. Until Lee shows solid success in the majors or destroys AAA pitching, Pasquantino is a better bet to have an impactful career. Lee’s wRC+ of 120 in AA and 78 in AAA don’t suggest an impactful career. 

 

 

 

 

Looking at exactly number 18 is weird, imo. 

[ashbury]

3 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

I was replying to yours because you took "scoring runs is important" so literally that you only took into account the number of runs he scored instead of his overall offensive impact to the team as a whole scoring runs, which is the actual important thing.

He didn't have many RBIs, either.  😄

[jorgenswest]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

Looking at exactly number 18 is weird, imo. 

I picked 18 because he was 18 but expand it from 16-20 over those 5 year and you will find some impactful players. It might be about a 1 in 5 chance. There are a lot of failed prospects and mediocre players in that group.

Luzardo is already an impactful player. Three years of control of a impactful player should be very expensive and the Marlins should look for the single best player they can get. They can do better than a package headlined by Lee.

[tony&rodney]

I don't believe Miami is trading Luzardo. I don't think the Twins will trade Brooks Lee.

Of the young shortstop prospects (Holliday, Merill, Lawler, Mayer, Montgomery, Lee, and Williams) in MLB's top 20, Miami may see Lee as a player who projects to be a steady reliable guy who may also be available if Minnesota includes a few other pieces. Miami could use a shortstop but can also just fill from within, which is likely. 

[JD-TWINS]

On 1/2/2024 at 9:15 PM, Joe A. Preusser said:

Interesting feedback so far.  I didn't expect so see much "too much to pay" sentiment.  

I don't know anything about the Marlin's farm system, so I purposely left the trade in favor of Miami.  But I would expect the Twins to extract more value coming back.  

The price is definitely steep.  But just think what you'd be getting:

- top of the rotation starter

- three years of arbitration control

- throws left-handed

- friends with our other top of the rotation starter

 

Lee cannot be part of this deal - understand that two fading veterans that have limited ceilings aren’t the centerpiece but their value needs to be respected!

Rodriguez, along with Polanco & Kepler makes the Marlins offense respectable immediately in ‘24.

Instead of Lee, possibly Miranda & Festa to get to the right total value. Two high Twins prospects (one being an arm) and 3 other guys that have had top end success at varying parts of their careers seems to be a reasonable package for a very valuable Luzardo!

Would prefer to include another arm like Winder, to supplement on some level the loss of Luzardo, & keep Kepler.

[Cory Engelhardt]

I’m guessing the primary addition for the Twins is going to be Trevor Rogers of Miami. Fans will feel let down because it’s not Luzardo, but Rogers is still young, team controlled, and has had success in the past that the team could unlock. The kind of deal, like they did with Gray and Odorizzi and others, where they got someone more at a low point than coming off a great year. 
If he is the primary addition, how would you feel about that?

[Joe A. Preusser]

2 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I’m guessing the primary addition for the Twins is going to be Trevor Rogers of Miami. Fans will feel let down because it’s not Luzardo, but Rogers is still young, team controlled, and has had success in the past that the team could unlock. The kind of deal, like they did with Gray and Odorizzi and others, where they got someone more at a low point than coming off a great year. 
If he is the primary addition, how would you feel about that?

This would be on the far low end of the spectrum that I would like to see, but he checks a lot of boxes for me.  

- Cost controlled for 3 more years.

- talented, but seems like more to unlock.

- left handed.

I'd guess either Kep or Polo with either Raya or Festa would be about my limit.  Might be had for less than that.  Not sure about injury concerns, why did he only make a handful of starts last year? 

I'd likely be in favor.  

 

 

[Cory Engelhardt]

15 minutes ago, Joe A. Preusser said:

This would be on the far low end of the spectrum that I would like to see, but he checks a lot of boxes for me.  

- Cost controlled for 3 more years.

- talented, but seems like more to unlock.

- left handed.

I'd guess either Kep or Polo with either Raya or Festa would be about my limit.  Might be had for less than that.  Not sure about injury concerns, why did he only make a handful of starts last year? 

I'd likely be in favor.  

 

 

In April he was shut down with a biceps strain, and then in June when he was rehabbing he had a partial tear of his right lat, and that caused him to not be able to come back last year.

As far as I can tell from google he SHOULD be having a normal offseason. But yeah, want to make sure you get the medicals cleared.

[Cory Engelhardt]

Just to add; Jon Morosi today connected Polanco and Kepler (not together, one of them) to Toronto for Alek Manoah.

He said he didn't know that a conversation has happened, but Toronto does really like both Kepler and Polanco, and Manoah would be a reasonable ask.

Food for thought.