The Twins Should Not Trade Max Kepler

[Hunter McCall]

The Twins have the depth to replace some players, but replacing Max Kepler would be difficult. They would be wiser to ride out his contract and explore other right-field options next offseason.

Image courtesy of © John Leyba-USA TODAY Sports

Max Kepler has had his ups and downs with the Twins since joining the team in 2016. He appeared to break out in 2019, clubbing 36 home runs for the Bomba Squad while playing excellent defense. In the years that followed, while he remained a great defender, his production at the plate fell off, with his OPS dropping every year before hitting a career-low .666 in 2022.

With trade rumors swirling throughout the 2023 offseason, no one’s seat was hotter last year than Kepler’s. In need of a productive season, he answered the bell with his best year since the juiced-ball 2019 season. Kepler hit 24 home runs, with an .816 OPS and a 121 OPS+. On top of that, his hitting metrics at Baseball Savant backed his production with a page filled with red.

Kepler is due to become a free agent after the 2024 season. With the team looking to cut payroll, he has been at the center of many trade rumors, but moving him might be a mistake. Set to make a team-friendly $10 million in the final year of his team-friendly contract with the Twins, he's likely to be a bargain. According to FanGraphs, Kepler was worth $21 million in 2023, when he produced 2.6 fWAR. That kind of production will be tough to replace, especially when the Twins don’t have the guys to replicate it.

As the roster stands now, if the Twins were to dump Kepler, their options to fill the two corner outfield spots are Matt Wallner, Trevor Larnach, and Alex Kirilloff. Wallner will get a chance to hold down one spot after his breakout season, so that leaves Kirilloff and Larnach as options to fill the hole created by trading Kepler. They could shuffle around and move Royce Lewis to the outfield or make Willi Castro an everyday outfielder, but I don’t see those as credible everyday fits for a corner spot. Austin Martin is also possible, but I see this as the least likely option, due to his inexperience and the reticence the Twins will surely feel to limit his athleticism in a full-time corner outfield spot.

If the Twins elected to trade Kepler and move Kirilloff to the outfield, a hole would not be filled but merely moved. The Twins already need a right-handed platoon bat to pair with Kirilloff at first base, but moving him would ensure the need to add a full-time first baseman and a right-handed platoon bat in the outfield. On top of that, Kirilloff has been a poor defender in the outfield over his career, providing -5 Outs Above Average and -4 Runs Above Average in his two years of outfield playing time, according to Statcast. He has also been a bad defender at first base, but moving him to the outfield would result in a significant degradation in outfield defense compared to Kepler’s 4 OAA and RAA in 2023 (he had 11 and 10, respectively, in 2022).

Larnach has had moments wherein he looks like a potential All-Star for the Twins. Those moments, however, have been few and far between. Larnach is a better defensive outfielder than Kirilloff, but he hasn’t provided the value Kepler does on either side of the ball. Larnach strikes out 34 percent of the time at the plate and has struggled to hit breaking and offspeed pitches. In 2023, Larnach had a 50.9% whiff rate against breaking balls and 46.5% against offspeed stuff. Until he gets that corrected, he will continue to struggle in the major leagues. He’s still young and has time to improve on both sides of the ball, but right now, Larnach would be a significant downgrade from Kepler.

It's also worth noting the adjustments Kepler made at the plate in 2023. In previous years, he took an approach that sacrificed hard contact in exchange for a lower strikeout rate. For this reason, Kepler's BABIP was extremely low. He mishit a lot of balls, either on the ground or straight up in the air, rather than accept a whiff in pursuit of more solidly barreling it. While his strikeout rate sat at 14.8 percent in 2022, his BABIP sat at only .249, which was actually up from his .225 BABIP in 2021.

Kepler's shift in focus this season resulted in his hard-hit percentage spiking from 39.9% to 47.9%. While his strikeout rate increased to 21.6%, his BABIP jumped 40 points, to .288. Still in the prime of his career at just 31 years old, if Kepler can sustain this approach, the Twins could benefit significantly in 2024 and tag him with a qualifying offer on his way out the door.

What are your thoughts? Should the Twins trade Max Kepler? If so, how would you replace him? Let me know in the comments! Go, Twins!

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[Brett]

I agree that Kepler would be difficult to replace with the roster we have now. Of the two, Polanco is easier to replace if we absolutely have to cut costs (or repurpose $ for pitching).

If Kepler is moved, there must be a corresponding move to bring in another corner OF option.

[Brian Kingfield]

I’m happy to keep him another year and see if he can stay hot. And the infield looks so much more crowded that I’d rather trade from that strength.

[Hunter McCall]

8 minutes ago, Brett said:

I agree that Kepler would be difficult to replace with the roster we have now. Of the two, Polanco is easier to replace if we absolutely have to cut costs (or repurpose $ for pitching).

If Kepler is moved, there must be a corresponding move to bring in another corner OF option.

Exactly my thought. If the Twins want to move one of the vets, Polanco should be moved before Kepler. Kepler would be next to impossible to replace for a similar price.

[arby58]

Agree - Kepler fills more of a need, and his trade value is likely lessened because of only one year of control. The infield is where they should focus the trade attention, and Polanco's two years of team-friendly control is the logical starting point. Of course, if you want a lot, teams are going to ask about Lee or Julien rather than Polanco.

[Hunter McCall]

1 minute ago, Brian Kingfield said:

I’m happy to keep him another year and see if he can stay hot. And the infield looks so much more crowded that I’d rather trade from that strength.

Exactly. The infield has the depth to offset trading someone like Polanco. The outfield can’t do the same if they lose Kepler.

[Hunter McCall]

1 minute ago, arby58 said:

Agree - Kepler fills more of a need, and his trade value is likely lessened because of only one year of control. The infield is where they should focus the trade attention, and Polanco's two years of team-friendly control is the logical starting point. Of course, if you want a lot, teams are going to ask about Lee or Julien rather than Polanco.

I already wrote an article about trading Brooks Lee. I think if you want to get a big return, that’s your best option. You’re right though though, it’ll be much easier to replace an infielder than Kepler!

[Cory Engelhardt]

I just, imagine writing this article any time from like 2020 through about June of 2023. 
I know he was great the 2nd half of 2023, but I’m almost in the camp of, be grateful he was good so he actually has trade value now. 97% of us wanted him dfa’d mid season, so that he has value now isn’t a bad thing

[Johnny Ringo]

We should be willing to trade every player always. Forever and ever, amen. 

[Karbo]

4 minutes ago, Johnny Ringo said:

We should be willing to trade every player always. Forever and ever, amen. 

I agree that no one should be untouchable, for the right price of course!

[Hunter McCall]

10 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I just, imagine writing this article any time from like 2020 through about June of 2023. 
I know he was great the 2nd half of 2023, but I’m almost in the camp of, be grateful he was good so he actually has trade value now. 97% of us wanted him dfa’d mid season, so that he has value now isn’t a bad thing

I personally never wanted him dfa’d but you’re right there were many people calling for it!

[Hunter McCall]

8 minutes ago, Johnny Ringo said:

We should be willing to trade every player always. Forever and ever, amen. 

Correct, but the Twins likely won’t get a return that will make the 2024 team better which I think should be the goal. Kepler likely won’t bring in an arm that will make the rotation much better and he certainly won’t bring in a corner outfielder better than himself. So my point is, they shouldn’t trade him just to trade him.

[Twinkies are for eating]

They should absofreakinlutely trade Max. Strike while the irons hot. Too many prospects in the org that play OF. Max has had 8 full seasons to impress us. Finally in the 2nd half of year 9 he’s figured it out? Not likely. When he’s hot he’s a blast to watch. Problem is when he’s not he is colder than anyone in the game. 

[Johnny Ringo]

3 minutes ago, Hunter McCall said:

Correct, but the Twins likely won’t get a return that will make the 2024 team better which I think should be the goal. Kepler likely won’t bring in an arm that will make the rotation much better and he certainly won’t bring in a corner outfielder better than himself. So my point is, they shouldn’t trade him just to trade him.

I would just put that in the category of "things we don't know". 

[Doctor Gast]

Wow! we only have Wallner, Larnach & Kiriloff to replace Kepler in RF. Yes, Kepler is much better than any of these but RF is a non premium position where team often hide their less defensive prone players. I really like Kepler & if there isn't any good offers then by all means keep him. But especially with him in his last year IMO he's the most expendable than Polanco, Vazquez & Farmer they play more premium positions.

Any thought of putting Lewis in the OF is totally ridiculous. #1 you're placing one of our main reasons of breaking that humiliating curse of winless PS games in risk again #2 lack of quality depth in the INF that includes only Correa, Lewis, Polanco & Farmer. People are crying out to trade Polanco & Farmer & remove Lewis to th OF. Martin will be joining the OF sooner rather than later, Brooks should be much later.

[Cory Engelhardt]

13 minutes ago, Hunter McCall said:

Correct, but the Twins likely won’t get a return that will make the 2024 team better which I think should be the goal. Kepler likely won’t bring in an arm that will make the rotation much better and he certainly won’t bring in a corner outfielder better than himself. So my point is, they shouldn’t trade him just to trade him.

I do agree, I wouldn’t sell him for a minimal return. I do think both Polanco and Kepler have actual trade value right now that can help in 2024. That would be my goal for either of them in a trade, to get something back that would help for 2024

[TwinsDr2021]

If the idea is to trade Kepler and give the not so young guys the job, then no you don't trade him. If it is part of a larger plan of bringing somebody else in to take a outfield spot (presumably cheaper and maybe younger) than it makes perfect sense.

Division winning teams that only won 87 games and lost their second best starting pitcher and one of the best depth rotation guys in the league shouldn't go into the next season with a plan of an outfield of injury prone, unknown older prospects and utility  players as the plan, with the back ups to those player more injury prone unknown older prospects. Could it work? absolutely, could it be disastrous? absolutely and this outcome is more likely

[MGX]

He should be available for trade if the return justifies it. Seattle could use both Polanco & Kepler & has a lot of young talented pitching. In the right deal I'd trade either or both if needed. I'd rather trade Kepler in a deal that gets us a quality SP & give Larnach another chance than go with with our rotation as it stands & have Max in RF. On the other hand if we don't get the right offer for either Kepler or Polanco then keep them both as they're both productive players.

[Hunter McCall]

34 minutes ago, Twinkies are for eating said:

They should absofreakinlutely trade Max. Strike while the irons hot. Too many prospects in the org that play OF. Max has had 8 full seasons to impress us. Finally in the 2nd half of year 9 he’s figured it out? Not likely. When he’s hot he’s a blast to watch. Problem is when he’s not he is colder than anyone in the game. 

Where would they find a better option?

[Hunter McCall]

21 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

If the idea is to trade Kepler and give the not so young guys the job, then no you don't trade him. If it is part of a larger plan of bringing somebody else in to take a outfield spot (presumably cheaper and maybe younger) than it makes perfect sense.

Division winning teams that only won 87 games and lost their second best starting pitcher and one of the best depth rotation guys in the league shouldn't go into the next season with a plan of an outfield of injury prone, unknown older prospects and utility  players as the plan, with the back ups to those player more injury prone unknown older prospects. Could it work? absolutely, could it be disastrous? absolutely and this outcome is more likely

Agreed that if they were to trade Kepler they should have a better option in mind than the options that are currently in house.

[old nurse]

39 minutes ago, Hunter McCall said:

Correct, but the Twins likely won’t get a return that will make the 2024 team better which I think should be the goal. Kepler likely won’t bring in an arm that will make the rotation much better and he certainly won’t bring in a corner outfielder better than himself. So my point is, they shouldn’t trade him just to trade him.

The return based on past trades by other teams would be a quality reliever and low level prospects. The return is less of a question mark in the bullpen with more questions i the outfield

[Hunter McCall]

16 minutes ago, MGX said:

He should be available for trade if the return justifies it. Seattle could use both Polanco & Kepler & has a lot of young talented pitching. In the right deal I'd trade either or both if needed. I'd rather trade Kepler in a deal that gets us a quality SP & give Larnach another chance than go with with our rotation as it stands & have Max in RF. On the other hand if we don't get the right offer for either Kepler or Polanco then keep them both as they're both productive players.

If Seattle was willing to give one of their starting pitchers for Kepler and Polanco, I am absolutely all in. The purpose here was more to reiterate that unless they have a trade that makes the team better, don't just sell him for a couple prospects because he is in a contract year. If there's a "help me help you" type trade that presents itself with a team like Seattle then I'd be all for it.

[Hunter McCall]

Just now, old nurse said:

The return based on past trades by other teams would be a quality reliever and low level prospects. The return is less of a question mark in the bullpen with more questions i the outfield

Agreed. If that's the return then I think the Twins should absolutely stick with Kepler.

[Hunter McCall]

35 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

Wow! we only have Wallner, Larnach & Kiriloff to replace Kepler in RF. Yes, Kepler is much better than any of these but RF is a non premium position where team often hide their less defensive prone players. I really like Kepler & if there isn't any good offers then by all means keep him. But especially with him in his last year IMO he's the most expendable than Polanco, Vazquez & Farmer they play more premium positions.

Any thought of putting Lewis in the OF is totally ridiculous. #1 you're placing one of our main reasons of breaking that humiliating curse of winless PS games to risk again #2 lack of quality depth in the INF that includes only Correa, Lewis, Polanco & Farmer. People are crying out to trade Polanco & Farmer & remove Lewis to th OF. Martin will be joining the OF sooner tha later, Brooks should be much later.

But you won't be able to hide Larnach at the plate and moving Kirilloff creates a void at first base. This is why, unless the return provides substantial help for the 2024 team, I think they should stick with Kepler.

[Cory Engelhardt]

Aren't they saying that Kirilloff is just 1B now? I don't think moving him back to the outfield is part of any plan at this point?

 

[Trov]

Kepler is not untouchable, and most likely at peak value right now.  If a team is willing to part with the right package I see no reason to keep him for one more year.  That being said, I doubt the return for him will be that big and I would agree not to just dump him to save money.  I do not expect he will repeat what he did second half of last year again, 

[DJL44]

I think Kepler's value will be nearly as high at the trade deadline as it is now in the offseason. If the team falls apart or if the young outfielders take a step forward they can deal Max at the deadline. There is no urgency to trade him this offseason.

[Hunter McCall]

18 minutes ago, Trov said:

Kepler is not untouchable, and most likely at peak value right now.  If a team is willing to part with the right package I see no reason to keep him for one more year.  That being said, I doubt the return for him will be that big and I would agree not to just dump him to save money.  I do not expect he will repeat what he did second half of last year again, 

I agree with you on almost everything. I personally think that with the changes he made at the plate he can absolutely replicate his 2023 production and his advanced metrics are very promising.

[Hunter McCall]

21 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Aren't they saying that Kirilloff is just 1B now? I don't think moving him back to the outfield is part of any plan at this point?

 

Yes, that was a recent report that I saw as well (actually after I wrote this). That being said, I suppose that makes the thought of trading Kepler more scary because it leaves Larnach as the only possible option. Again, if the price is right I'm all for trading Kepler, I just think the return is more likely to be underwhelming than anything.

[Hunter McCall]

4 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

I think Kepler's value will be nearly as high at the trade deadline as it is now in the offseason. If the team falls apart or if the young outfielders take a step forward they can deal Max at the deadline. There is no urgency to trade him this offseason.

Absolutely agree!