Carlos Correa Can Make Up the Difference for the Twins

[Ted Schwerzler]

The offseason is still in its infancy, considering the Twins' inactivity. Knowing the roster will look different next season, the front office aims to find a way to get a similar level of production from a new mix. Much of that could come from a strong season out of their top-paid star.

Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

Despite handing Sonny Gray a qualifying offer this offseason, it was always expected that the Twins would let the runner-up for the American League Cy Young Award walk away. Kenta Maeda also left for a new organization, and while his lost production isn't as great, many fans are left wondering how Derek Falvey will replace them. Rocco Baldelli will need more arms in his starting rotation, but replacing the production on the roster doesn’t have to come from only pitching.

The Twins can be a good pitching team again this season, with Lopez back, Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober still developing, and a healthy Chris Paddack in tow. It would also be in their best interest to take a significant step forward offensively. They got little from Byron Buxton in 2023, and we can’t assume that that will change in 2024. It's the equally disappointing Carlos Correa who needs to bounce back in a way that will send ripple effects throughout the roster.

After moving on from rescinded offers by the San Francisco Giants and the New York Mets, Correa agreed to a six-year deal to remain with the Twins. In 2022, he posted a 4.4 fWAR, and even that was a slight decrease from his final year playing with the Astros. Unfortunately, he got nowhere near that level of success in 2023 with Minnesota, and that’s largely why the offense struggled.

Despite playing in just one fewer game than the previous year, Correa saw his batting average drop by 61 points and went from a 138 OPS+ in 2022 to below league-average, with a 94 OPS+ last season. He accumulated similar totals for doubles and home runs, but had nearly 30 fewer hits overall. Then, there were the rally-killing double plays. Despite never hitting into even 20 double plays during a single season, Correa grounded into a league-worst 30. It’s there that a positive regression might start.

Looking back at historical data, the double play issues are unlikely to repeat themselves. Correa has generally been consistent throughout his career. He's a good bet for 20-plus home runs and a batting average closer to .300 than to .250, most years. If he can get the bat back to where it has always been, then Minnesota should see plenty of benefit.

There is also the reality that Correa was dealing with a painful plantar fasciitis issue for most of the season. He played through it, but it became apparent at the end of the year just how uncomfortable things had gotten. While the tear finally gave way and allowed some pain to subside, Baldelli gave his shortstop frequent days off down the stretch. Having the foot feel even somewhat better this season should set him up for increased success.

Steamer projections have Correa rebounding to a 3.4 fWAR in 2024. That seems like a conservative number, given his career outputs and his age. Returning to an OPS+ near the 130 mark he produced during 2021 and 2022 would be welcomed, and remaining an elite defensive shortstop would also go a long way. The key to much of that is probably health, and with the offseason to recover, there is reason to be cautiously optimistic that it can be achieved.

No one expects Correa to get on the mound and start throwing the ball for Minnesota, but the more heavy lifting he can do at the dish, the less pressure there will be on that overhauled pitching staff. The Twins don't have to win games the same way in 2024 as they did in 2023, and that puts the ball on a tee for many to contribute in more significant ways during the year ahead.

View full article

[rv78]

You are right about the 20 HR's per year but hitting .300 has only happened once and close to .300 has only happened once. He's more likely to hit .275-.280 which has happened 4 times. Maybe I'm just splitting hairs but let's not make him better than what he really is. What would really be nice if if he would play and perform at that level for 155-160 games like the other top shortstops in baseball, since he's getting paid like one.

[tony&rodney]

The double plays should go to 14 next season if he returns to an average season.

[Oldgoat_MN]

While it's likely that Correa's numbers will improve I believe we can also expect a lot more from Buxton. People saying that we can't expect more than what we got last year seem to forget that his OPS was greater than .800 in 2019, 2020, 2021 and 2022.

I am cautiously optimistic that our offense can improve dramatically, led by our 2 star players.

[laloesch]

30 minutes ago, Oldgoat_MN said:

While it's likely that Correa's numbers will improve I believe we can also expect a lot more from Buxton. People saying that we can't expect more than what we got last year seem to forget that his OPS was greater than .800 in 2019, 2020, 2021 and 2022.

I am cautiously optimistic that our offense can improve dramatically, led by our 2 star players.

I'm more skeptical. I'm not so sure now.  I kinda think the version of Correa we saw last season is more in line with the player he's going to be moving forward.  Not bad, not great either and certainly not worth 200 million.

[Karbo]

56 minutes ago, Oldgoat_MN said:

While it's likely that Correa's numbers will improve I believe we can also expect a lot more from Buxton. People saying that we can't expect more than what we got last year seem to forget that his OPS was greater than .800 in 2019, 2020, 2021 and 2022.

I am cautiously optimistic that our offense can improve dramatically, led by our 2 star players.

If he can play in the field. Buxton ,like many others, just don't perform well as a full time DH.

[Parfigliano]

33 minutes ago, laloesch said:

I'm more skeptical. I'm not so sure now.  I kinda think the version of Correa we saw last season is more in line with the player he's going to be moving forward.  Not bad, not great either and certainly not worth 200 million.

I Disagree.  With a healthy foot comes better D and at least a 125 OPS+

[IndianaTwin]

3 hours ago, Oldgoat_MN said:

While it's likely that Correa's numbers will improve I believe we can also expect a lot more from Buxton. People saying that we can't expect more than what we got last year seem to forget that his OPS was greater than .800 in 2019, 2020, 2021 and 2022.

I am cautiously optimistic that our offense can improve dramatically, led by our 2 star players.

Why would we want to pay attention to Buxton's 2019, 2020, 2021 and 2022 (and even the first two months of 2023) when we can fixate on his last two months?  /s

[Brandon]

We still need solid innings coverage to replace the innings lost.  No one should be expecting to replace the 2nd best pitcher in the league with the same level of production.  But if we can find a pitcher who gets a low to mid 3.50 ERA then we can be competitive and more improvements can come from other places.  We have a nice chunk of innings replaced already.  But if we can find a starter who can get us atleast 150 more.  We should be alright.

[Fatbat]

A healthy C4 turns 15 of the gidp into rbi singles or doubles. Just that would have made ‘23 an average season for him. I’m not even worried about ‘24. He will be healthy and thriving at the plate. 

[TNtwins85]

6 hours ago, laloesch said:

I'm more skeptical. I'm not so sure now.  I kinda think the version of Correa we saw last season is more in line with the player he's going to be moving forward.  Not bad, not great either and certainly not worth 200 million.

You expect him to post 1.4 WAR or less the rest of his career? I’ll bet the billion dollars I don’t have on the over on that. Unless he’s a total dud and has to retire early because of a career ending injury there’s almost no chance of that. He’s still only 29. 

[Blyleven2011]

If he lays off that high and inside pitch he can't handle , that would be nice  ...

I expect Correa will be better  after recovering from  his injury that he played with until the last 2 weeks  , he played while not 100 percent  , says something about his character   ...

Polanco has been another  player that has played under 100 percent healthy  ...

I sure hope we have a nice warm spring and the Twins get off to a nice start ...

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

These mid-career cases of plantar fasciitis rarely work themselves out for the better, based on my searching. Players don’t return to early career form, unfortunately.

[PatPfund]

I think the OP is correct, and we can expect a bounce-back from Correa; the playoffs were a peek that the star player is still there given some alleviation of the foot problem. I also agree Buxton can't be counted on (he isn't bouncing back from a bad year, he has had a bad knee that ended 2022 early with a surgery that still left him unable to play the field, or even stay healthy as a DH; maybe the latest minor surgery fixed it, maybe not).

Maeda is already replaced; Paddack is coming off TJ surgery as Maeda was doing, but unlike Kenta he rehabbed enough to pitch at AAA, and then be a star reliever in the playoffs. He should be far ahead of where Maeda was a year ago. The offense is also likely to be much better as their rookie trio (Lewis, Julien, Wallner) only played fractions of last year, and will hopefully be good for most/all of the season. Miranda and Kirilloff should also be healthy (people are freaking about Kirilloff, but the wrist that looked to end his career was fine, and he won a Player of the Month award before dinging his shoulder).

The team still needs a starter to add depth, and they need to sort out the CF spot, but a good foundation is in place.

[DJL44]

9 hours ago, PatPfund said:

The team still needs a starter to add depth, and they need to sort out the CF spot, but a good foundation is in place.

I think they need a starter for the top end. They have depth. They need someone like Lopez who has a good chance of outpitching the competition.

You brought up Kirilloff and they need a backup plan for him as much as they do for Buxton. Having another 1B/COF bat would be quite helpful. Rhys Hoskins would be such a great fit.

[Chaz1966]

what we need is a Brad Radke, unfortunately there isn't a lot of those around. A guy who for 10 plus yrs took the mound and ate up innings.

[laloesch]

14 hours ago, TNtwins85 said:

You expect him to post 1.4 WAR or less the rest of his career? I’ll bet the billion dollars I don’t have on the over on that. Unless he’s a total dud and has to retire early because of a career ending injury there’s almost no chance of that. He’s still only 29. 

Those are your words not mine, I’m not sure what to expect moving forward as far as specific war.  
 

What I said was have a suspicion that he will be closer to last season’s numbers in production than years past.  And there’s always the possibility of players not being able to stay healthy affecting their production.  Correa does have a length injury history including bad ankle and back in addition to foot arch issues.  Those issues are not going away.  
 

People were warning about this with Buxton for years meanwhile another group of fans were screaming rabidly at them and telling them to be quiet and how they were dead wrong.  History repeats itself.
 

Correa is a very good player and we all want him to succeed, but will he stay healthy that is the question.

[T.O.]

I'm not buying that Plantar Fasciitis was the big reason Correa hit so poorly in 23. PF wasn't mentioned until well into the season. I've had PF and it can be brutal but if he could play excellent shortstop all year he could have hit better than he did.

In 22 he really didn't hit that great until the Twins were out of competition, then he poured it on. The only thing he accomplished was getting a huge salary that very few could ever deserve.

My theory is that many players that get huge salaries try too hard to live up to the salary. The harder they try the worse they do.

You can throw a lot of stats around but what I place more stock in is this...
When a batter comes to the plate in a clutch situation and you always groan that says more about the player than anything to me.

Correa will hopefully contribute more in 24 but he will never be worth 33,000,000 x 6.

[jmlease1]

I think there's a excellent chance for Correa to have a big rebound at the plate in 2024. A foot injury like that can really sap a player's power, and I think it's very likely that he'll be driving the ball better, getting it in the air more consistently, and hitting into fewer DPs. He's had a few tough years at the plate, but every one of them has been marked by injury (or the weird pandemic season), so we'll see if he's healthy. Sure looked it in the post-season!

A healthy season from Correa will be a very productive one at the plate, I'm convinced of that. The off-season should be good for his bum foot, and an average season at the plate for him would make a big difference for the Twins.

I feel pretty confident in the offense for the Twins right now: a return to health for Correa, full seasons from Julien, Lewis, and Wallner are all a good start. That's without expecting significant contributions from Buxton. I think the offense could be a real strength in 2024.

[Major League Ready]

Without a medical report and a doctor to interpret the results, I have no idea what to expect from Correa or Buxton.  However, I know two things ... The prospect of either or both rebounding is pretty darn exciting, and the optimistic point of view is more fun.

[IndianaTwin]

32 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

Without a medical report and a doctor to interpret the results, I have no idea what to expect from Correa or Buxton.  However, I know two things ... The prospect of either or both rebounding is pretty darn exciting, and the optimistic point of view is more fun.

And fun is the point, right? I'm with you. 

[Launch Angle]

I fully expect Correa to have a better season in 2024, however the issue comes down to the playoffs. We cant expect him to be better there than 2023 since he was fantastic. We still need players that can improve our team in October, not the regular season.

[TNtwins85]

On 12/9/2023 at 9:04 AM, laloesch said:

Those are your words not mine, I’m not sure what to expect moving forward as far as specific war.  
 

What I said was have a suspicion that he will be closer to last season’s numbers in production than years past.  And there’s always the possibility of players not being able to stay healthy affecting their production.  Correa does have a length injury history including bad ankle and back in addition to foot arch issues.  Those issues are not going away.  
 

People were warning about this with Buxton for years meanwhile another group of fans were screaming rabidly at them and telling them to be quiet and how they were dead wrong.  History repeats itself.
 

Correa is a very good player and we all want him to succeed, but will he stay healthy that is the question.

I understand yet according to your gut analysis he’s not a good player at all. He’s had constant injury issues and he’s only going to get worse. That’s just simply not true. Maybe to a degree but yet he’s still 29. He’s played in 80% of the season in 5 of his 9 seasons and 67% of the season in 7 of his 9 seasons. He’s only had 2 seasons of less than 3.1 WAR. His career average is 4.5 WAR. He plays solid defense and is a leader in the locker room. This guy is not Buxton. And he’s not going to be a 1.4 WAR or less player the rest of his career. That price is what you pay for this type of player. Did he have a terrible year last year? Yes. Agreed. You’re looking as if the glass is empty and I’m simply looking at it as if it’s half full. 

[UK Twin]

One of Correa's biggest strengths is his intelligence. He'll know he had a down year but he also won't panic about it. With his defense, he doesn't need to produce MVP numbers at the plate. A .270-.280 BA with 20+ homers, 80-90 RBI will be more than fine. I think he'll produce those sorts of numbers going forwards.

[FilthyMogwai]

Carlos Correa is wired differently. He has a superstar mindset. Those types of players rarely have consecutive down seasons. They fix their problems and rebound. I don't see him fading into obscurity without a fight.