Verdugo trade good comp for possible Kepler trade?

[chpettit19]

There's been various talk for the last few years about Kepler being traded. The Twins indication that they're going to be lowering payroll in 2024 is the driving factor this offseason while it's previously been about a perceived logjam of corner outfielders, especially ones that hit left handed. The Yankees have long been a team Twins fans thought would be a good trade partner for Kepler due to their need in the OF, and their park being very friendly to lefty bats. The Yanks just swung a deal with the hated Red Sox for Alex Verdugo, a lefty hitting corner outfielder. 

The talk around trades often revolves around "selling high" or trading guys when they have "value." I'm curious what folks think the Verdugo trade says about Kepler's value. Did they get more than you thought it'd be possible for the Twins to get for Kepler? Did they get less? About the same?

In assessing what the Verdugo trade could mean for Kepler's value we should probably compare the 2. Both are entering the last year of team control. Kepler for $10 million, and Verdugo for somewhere in the low $9 million range (final year of arbitration). So dollars wise they're quite close. Kepler is older as he enters his age 31 season compared to Verdugo's age 28 season. Last season they were relatively similar in WAR as they came in at 2.9 (Kepler) and 2.6 (Verdugo) respectively in bWAR, and 2.6 (Kepler) to 2.0 (Verdugo) in fWAR. Verdugo played 142 games to Kepler's 130. Kepler had a slash line of .260/.332/.484/.816 with 24 HRs and an OPS+ of 121. Verdugo came in at .264/.324/.421/.745 with 13 HRs and an OPS+ of 100. Clearly Kepler had the better overall season.

I prefer a 3 year look back to get a better idea of players who've been in the league for a while so let's take a look at the 2021-2023 stats for both. Kepler had a slash line of .233/.319/.418/.737 with 52 HRs and an OPS+ of 104. Verdugo had a slash line of .277/.334/.417/.751 with 37 HRS and an OPS+ of 103. I think this look at things begs the question of whether you believe Kepler will be closer to his 2023 self, or his previous 3 years self. And the answer to that question likely dictates what sort of value you believe he should be able to fetch in trade.

The Red Sox got back 3 pitching prospects (Richard Fitts, Greg Weissert, and Nicholas Judice) in the trade. Weissert has thrown 31 1/3 innings with a 4.60 ERA in the majors over the last 2 years, and is 28 years old. I'd guess they're hoping he can be a 6/7 inning guy for them right away. Judice was an 8th round pick this season and is viewed as a potential reliever down the road due to his fastball/slider combination. Fitts is likely viewed by most as the biggest piece in the return. He's entering his age 24 season and was very good in AA last year (152 2/3 innings, 3.48 ERA, lots of Ks, not bad BB rate). MLB.com had him ranked as the Yanks #12 prospect, and now has him as the #10 Red Sox prospect. 

What do people think? Is Verdugo a reasonable comp for Kepler? Would you be happy with a similar package in return for Kepler? If another OF needy team calls about Kepler and offers a 24 year old who likely slots in amongst the SWR, Cory Lewis, CJ Culpepper type crowd with a couple reliever fliers should we take it?

[gunnarthor]

It's not a horrible comp but I think Verdugo has more value. The age difference is big but Kepler has also been very streaky and more injury prone.

[DJL44]

I think this is a fair comp for Kepler's trade value. I also don't see a reason to trade Kepler unless it improves the 2024 team. That trade for Verdugo doesn't improve the Red Sox in 2024.

[chpettit19]

14 minutes ago, gunnarthor said:

It's not a horrible comp but I think Verdugo has more value. The age difference is big but Kepler has also been very streaky and more injury prone.

Yeah, with them both being on 1 year deals, to me, it comes down to which one teams think is more likely to have the better 2024 season. Do you think Kepler has 1 more season like 2023 in him or do you think he's back to 2021 or 2022 Kepler? How much do you think the shift reduction helped him, and thus makes it more likely his production can be maintained? Can he continue to be an elite fielder for another season? These are the kinds of questions teams are likely asking themselves. Including the Twins. Because their answers to those questions also dictate what they're willing to accept back.

I just thought it was an interesting look at things as they're similar players in that they're most likely average bats who play good to great defense in the corner outfield and are lefties on 1 year deals for roughly 10 million. I also wanted to use it as a bit of an expectations setter for people calling for the trade of the "expensive" veterans on the roster. 

[chpettit19]

5 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

I think this is a fair comp for Kepler's trade value. I also don't see a reason to trade Kepler unless it improves the 2024 team. That trade for Verdugo doesn't improve the Red Sox in 2024.

Yeah, I thought they were close enough in value to be used as a decent enough expectation setter for those calling for the trade of veterans. Similar, but younger, player brought back a decent enough pitching prospect, a flier MLB reliever, and a guy who likely never makes the majors, but is a decent system depth reliever. I know there will be some fans who are happy with that, but I'm with you, and a trade like that doesn't help the 2024 Twins, and I want no part of those trades this offseason. 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

Honestly Kepler has quite a bit more value.  Most will look at me oddly but then lets talk about the reasons.   1st,  they both started about the same time,  but Kepler has an over 20 WAR compared to Verdugo's 11.  Peak Kepler is worth 5-6 WAR a year.  I think the 3 WAR is peak Verdugo advantage Kepler.  Kepler plays better defense than Verdugo. Kepler performed much better to end the season OPS plus 127 for second half last year compared to .7 for Verdugo (effectively their halves were flipped last year - would prefer a player played well recently than not).  Lastly is the value to the Twins.  Currently we do not have a surplus of outfielders.  Red Sox have more outfielders than they know what to do with right now.   They are more just removing one of the excess, and Verdugo was no longer in their long term plans or this year, it was in their interest to trade.  For us it really isn't.   Lastly,  in a Qualifying offer situation the Twins would get a late 1st round pick.  For the Red Sox it would be a much lower pick.  I know some don't think Kepler will get the qualifying offer,  I actually think its a pretty high chance.   So I think the player would be better than effectively Judice and Fitts.  Neither really move the needle.  I think we would be looking for a prospect closer to a Chase Petty type player.  Thats my opinion and many may think I am over valuing but I would guess compensation would come closer to that type of deal.  

[mnfireman]

Listening to MLB Network recently, it sounds like Verdugo fell out of favor in Boston, for whatever reason, and was going to be dealt no matter what this off-season. Production-wise they may be a match, but I don't think the Twins take a deal like this for Kepler.

[clone52]

26 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

I think this is a fair comp for Kepler's trade value. I also don't see a reason to trade Kepler unless it improves the 2024 team. That trade for Verdugo doesn't improve the Red Sox in 2024.

With one year of control left, I don't think the age difference is a big deal.

I think the Twins have some internal options to replace Kepler if they trade him.  So I don't think the Twins need to be getting back a 3 WAR guy to improve the team this year.  The internal replacements would be a step down, but if the Twins could get a good RH outfielder, a 1B platoon guy, a cheap backup C or a solid reliever, plus a prospect or 2, I'd be okay with it.

Or using Kepler plus prospects in a package deal for a good SP (say Kepler or one of the Mariners).

[Mike Sixel]

I mean, if that's what you can get for Kepler....unless you are using the  money to sign a legit star, you keep him.....

[chpettit19]

57 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

Honestly Kepler has quite a bit more value.  Most will look at me oddly but then lets talk about the reasons.   1st,  they both started about the same time,  but Kepler has an over 20 WAR compared to Verdugo's 11.  Peak Kepler is worth 5-6 WAR a year.  I think the 3 WAR is peak Verdugo advantage Kepler.  Kepler plays better defense than Verdugo. Kepler performed much better to end the season OPS plus 127 for second half last year compared to .7 for Verdugo (effectively their halves were flipped last year - would prefer a player played well recently than not).  Lastly is the value to the Twins.  Currently we do not have a surplus of outfielders.  Red Sox have more outfielders than they know what to do with right now.   They are more just removing one of the excess, and Verdugo was no longer in their long term plans or this year, it was in their interest to trade.  For us it really isn't.   Lastly,  in a Qualifying offer situation the Twins would get a late 1st round pick.  For the Red Sox it would be a much lower pick.  I know some don't think Kepler will get the qualifying offer,  I actually think its a pretty high chance.   So I think the player would be better than effectively Judice and Fitts.  Neither really move the needle.  I think we would be looking for a prospect closer to a Chase Petty type player.  Thats my opinion and many may think I am over valuing but I would guess compensation would come closer to that type of deal.  

I don't know that I agree with this. Kepler's never been a 5 WAR player, let alone a 6 WAR player, so I'm not sure how the Twins would be selling him as a 5 WAR player going into his age 31 season when he's never done it before. His big "resurgence" year last year got him to 2.9 WAR. Nobody is buying that Kepler is a 5-6 WAR player.

I also don't think Boston has "more outfielders than they know what to do with." Wilyer Abreu, Bobby Dalbec (1B trying to be turned into an OF), Jarren Duran, Ceddanne Rafaela, Rob Refsnyder, and Masataka Yoshida are the guys currently on their 40-man listed as OFers. Duran looked legit last year, and Yoshida was really good. Rob Refsnyder and Bobby Dalbec are holding onto their spots by a thread. Abreu is a dime a dozen OF prospect just trying to earn a job. And Rafaela is a bigger name prospect trying to find MLB success. That's not an outfield that has an excess. Duran and Yoshida are likely the only 2 guys on that list that a contender would be comfortable handing starting jobs to.

The Twins should absolutely not be banking on Kepler being worth a QO. Only 7 players were tendered QOs this year. I believe it was 13 last year. And expecting him to get $50+ mil in free agency in 2025 would also be a massive bet by the Twins, which likely wouldn't pay off and they wouldn't be getting a pick after the first round, it'd be after the 2nd.

I do think you're overvaluing. Significantly. 5-6 WAR for a 31 year old who's only hit 4 WAR once feels an awful lot like overvaluing.

[Mike Sixel]

Ya, this idea he'd get a QO is insanity, imo. He's not that good, never has been.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

43 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I don't know that I agree with this. Kepler's never been a 5 WAR player, let alone a 6 WAR player, so I'm not sure how the Twins would be selling him as a 5 WAR player going into his age 31 season when he's never done it before. His big "resurgence" year last year got him to 2.9 WAR. Nobody is buying that Kepler is a 5-6 WAR player.

I also don't think Boston has "more outfielders than they know what to do with." Wilyer Abreu, Bobby Dalbec (1B trying to be turned into an OF), Jarren Duran, Ceddanne Rafaela, Rob Refsnyder, and Masataka Yoshida are the guys currently on their 40-man listed as OFers. Duran looked legit last year, and Yoshida was really good. Rob Refsnyder and Bobby Dalbec are holding onto their spots by a thread. Abreu is a dime a dozen OF prospect just trying to earn a job. And Rafaela is a bigger name prospect trying to find MLB success. That's not an outfield that has an excess. Duran and Yoshida are likely the only 2 guys on that list that a contender would be comfortable handing starting jobs to.

The Twins should absolutely not be banking on Kepler being worth a QO. Only 7 players were tendered QOs this year. I believe it was 13 last year. And expecting him to get $50+ mil in free agency in 2025 would also be a massive bet by the Twins, which likely wouldn't pay off and they wouldn't be getting a pick after the first round, it'd be after the 2nd.

I do think you're overvaluing. Significantly. 5-6 WAR for a 31 year old who's only hit 4 WAR once feels an awful lot like overvaluing.

Even if I stated 4-5 WAR player fine.   What would you say if I told you Kepler was a 4 WAR player for 3 months last year? because thats what he was.   Now how does that extrapolate to this year? Does that mean he is a peak 8 WAR type player?  That is more where I was gathering a 5-6 WAR.  His last 3 months he was an elite hitter.  Just watch Teoscar Hernandez.  He is more similar to Kepler than Verdugo.  I think Seattle will be regretting not putting the QO on.  As to the number of QO its because this is an extremely weak free agent class.  

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

31 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Ya, this idea he'd get a QO is insanity, imo. He's not that good, never has been.

I am more than willing to revisit this next offseason  😀.  Salaries are going bonkers just look at free agency right now,  the threshold for $50 million is extremely low anymore.   

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

I am more than willing to revisit this next offseason  😀.  Salaries are going bonkers just look at free agency right now,  the threshold for $50 million is extremely low anymore.   

bonkers? Like 4 guys have signed legit deals.....

[chpettit19]

32 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

Even if I stated 4-5 WAR player fine.   What would you say if I told you Kepler was a 4 WAR player for 3 months last year? because thats what he was.   Now how does that extrapolate to this year? Does that mean he is a peak 8 WAR type player?  That is more where I was gathering a 5-6 WAR.  His last 3 months he was an elite hitter.  Just watch Teoscar Hernandez.  He is more similar to Kepler than Verdugo.  I think Seattle will be regretting not putting the QO on.  As to the number of QO its because this is an extremely weak free agent class.  

What if I told you he was a 2 WAR player for the 3 seasons before that? You're expecting MLB teams to ignore who he was from 2020 through the first half of 2023 and just go with who he was for half of 2023. That is not realistic. I mean, if they can get somebody to offer a package that's worth an MVP candidate they should absolutely accept that deal. But suggesting that that's a likely outcome is overvaluing him. There were 9 guys in baseball who had 6 WAR last year. 23 with 5 WAR. Do you think Max Kepler is likely to be a top 25 position player in baseball in 2024? Because that's what you're describing. 43 position players had 4 WAR. Is he a top 50 position player in baseball? I don't think any team in baseball thinks that. If that's the case the Twins should be trying to extend him for a few more years, and not trade him.

Teoscar Hernandez likely would've accepted a QO and Seattle didn't want to pay him 20M for 2024. Like the Twins likely won't want to pay Kepler 21M for 2025. What about the FA class last year? Was that "extremely weak" because there were only 14 QOs last year. 2 of which were accepted. Teoscar Hernandez had 2.1 WAR this year. 131st amongst position players. He's seen a steady decline in his performance and is now getting into his 30s. I don't know why a team would want to pay that player 20M.

[nicksaviking]

3 hours ago, gunnarthor said:

It's not a horrible comp but I think Verdugo has more value. The age difference is big but Kepler has also been very streaky and more injury prone.

Yeah, if you're a GM and are at all concerned about making a trade for a bust, Verdugo would be the clear winner. He's been at least a league average hitter five years in a row.

But that's not  how all front offices work. Kepler was better last year (the last three months anyway) so I could see other teams valuing that more. 

But again, if I'm looking to trade Kepler, it's in a package, not as a stand alone player for some modest prospects. The deal I'd be interested wouldn't look anything like this one.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

26 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

What if I told you he was a 2 WAR player for the 3 seasons before that? You're expecting MLB teams to ignore who he was from 2020 through the first half of 2023 and just go with who he was for half of 2023. That is not realistic. I mean, if they can get somebody to offer a package that's worth an MVP candidate they should absolutely accept that deal. But suggesting that that's a likely outcome is overvaluing him. There were 9 guys in baseball who had 6 WAR last year. 23 with 5 WAR. Do you think Max Kepler is likely to be a top 25 position player in baseball in 2024? Because that's what you're describing. 43 position players had 4 WAR. Is he a top 50 position player in baseball? I don't think any team in baseball thinks that. If that's the case the Twins should be trying to extend him for a few more years, and not trade him.

Teoscar Hernandez likely would've accepted a QO and Seattle didn't want to pay him 20M for 2024. Like the Twins likely won't want to pay Kepler 21M for 2025. What about the FA class last year? Was that "extremely weak" because there were only 14 QOs last year. 2 of which were accepted. Teoscar Hernandez had 2.1 WAR this year. 131st amongst position players. He's seen a steady decline in his performance and is not getting into his 30s. I don't know why a team would want to pay that player 20M.

Thats not what I am asking you to do.  However there were 2 specific changes that helped Kepler in 2023.  1 is less shift.  Second, being much more aggressive at the plate, and wanting to hit balls earlier in counts.  If it gets pushed to higher counts we are in a similar situation as prior years except he has more confidence.  Even still a 2-3 WAR Kepler which he has been for the last 3 seasons as you showed is very close to a QO type player worth in the 18 mil to 20 mil area.  Kepler with a new approach is likely a higher WAR player than the 2-3 baseline.  We will see this year.  I am guessing Teoscar is in the 4 year 20 million area for a contract possibly higher (70-80 mil is effectively my baseline) and I don't think he would have accepted the qualifying offer.  The Twins for 1 year would take the risk on Kepler.  Kepler wants to sign a contract next year,  not wait another year especially if he has a poor performance or injury.  

[nicksaviking]

7 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

Thats not what I am asking you to do.  However there were 2 specific changes that helped Kepler in 2023.  1 is less shift.  Second, being much more aggressive at the plate, and wanting to hit balls earlier in counts.  If it gets pushed to higher counts we are in a similar situation as prior years except he has more confidence.  Even still a 2-3 WAR Kepler which he has been for the last 3 seasons (go check please,  even with less hitting) was likely close to a QO type player.  Kepler with a new approach is likely a higher WAR player than the 2-3 baseline.  We will see this year.  I am guessing Teoscar is in the 4 year 20 million area for a contract possibly higher (70-80 mil is effectively my baseline) and I don't think he would have accepted the qualifying offer.  The Twins for 1 year would take the risk on Kepler.  Kepler wants to sign a contract next year,  not wait another year especially if he has a poor performance or injury.  

The Twins need offense. If Kepler's 2-3 WAR is almost entirely on the defensive side of the equation, as it usually is, it's not fixing the Twins biggest need.

[Reptevia]

I think it’s a pretty close comp. If Kepler was truly the better option, he’d be suiting up for NYY next year. 

[chpettit19]

36 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

Thats not what I am asking you to do.  However there were 2 specific changes that helped Kepler in 2023.  1 is less shift.  Second, being much more aggressive at the plate, and wanting to hit balls earlier in counts.  If it gets pushed we are in a similar situation except he has more confidence.  Even still a 2-3 WAR Kepler which he has been for the last 3 seasons (go check please,  even with less hitting) was likely close to a QO type player.  Kepler with a new approach is likely a higher WAR player than the 2-3 baseline.  We will see this year.  I am guessing Teoscar is in the 4 year 20 million area for a contract possibly higher (70-80 mil is effectively my baseline) and I don't think he would have accepted the qualifying offer.  The Twins for 1 year would take the risk on Kepler.  Kepler wants to sign a contract next year,  not wait another year especially if he has a poor performance or injury.  

Position players who received QOs in 2022 (WAR in parenthesis):

Accepted:
Joc Pederson (1.3)

Rejected:
Dansby Swanson (5.7)
Willson Contreras (3.9)
Trea Turner (4.9)
Xander Bogaerts (5.9)

Re-signed with same team:
Brandon Nimmo (5.1)
Anthony Rizzo (2.3)
Aaron Judge (10.6)

So Joc Pederson who had an OPS+ of 146, and Anthony Rizzo who re-signed with the yanks on a deal I bet they regret (17m per for 2 years) had WARs at, or below, the typical Kepler year. Everyone else was basically at his career best year (3.9 vs 4) or better.

Position players who received QOs in 2023 (WAR in parenthesis):

Rejected:
Shohei Ohtani (6.0- offense only)
Cody Bellinger (4.4)
Matt Chapman (4.4)

So all 3 with more WAR than Kepler has ever had in a single season.

2-3 WAR players don't get QOs unless you're OPS+ing 145+ (and those guys accept them) or you re-sign with the Yankees for less per year than the QO. Teoscar with his 2.1 is not a shock at all that he didn't get a QO. And Kepler putting up his typical year won't get one either. But I hope you're right and he is his 2nd half self for the full year and competes for an MVP on a $10M salary so we can give him a QO next year. But that isn't likely at all.

[old nurse]

Any team that is trading for Kepler has a short term hole to fill in their outfield. It doesn’t matter if it is a part of a package or stand alone trade. What he is worth in trade is about a decent reliever and minor league hopefuls. I would think that most systems have an if outfielder in their system. That is someone like Larnach or even Kiersay. The if is if they just get a little better.  

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

First off I am expecting Kepler to be at minimum a 3.5 to 4 WAR player this year with his offensive changes.  This is all perceived Value.  I think teams value Kepler more than we do.  Is he borderline,  Yes he is borderline,  but I think when all is said and done he will be and it won't be borderline.  It may be right it may be wrong.  All I am saying is I think the Twins value him more than fans (similar to Pagan who got a 2 year 16 mil contract), I think teams value Kepler more than fans, and the Twins have needs in the outfield for 2024 so would likely need a large compensation in a trade to make it work.   

[jorgenswest]

It is comparable. They did lose a buyer in the Yankees. so the market has changed.

If the Yankees liked Kepler better I am sure they connected with the Twins and  tried to make the same/similar deal. It must not have been enough for the Twins.

[jorgenswest]

My other thought is…

Let’s suppose they both have very good seasons in their contract years. I would think Verdugo’s age would make him a better bet to merit a qualifying offer adding possible value.

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

First off I am expecting Kepler to be at minimum a 3.5 to 4 WAR player this year with his offensive changes.  This is all perceived Value.  I think teams value Kepler more than we do.  Is he borderline,  Yes he is borderline,  but I think when all is said and done he will be and it won't be borderline.  It may be right it may be wrong.  All I am saying is I think the Twins value him more than fans (similar to Pagan who got a 2 year 16 mil contract), I think teams value Kepler more than fans, and the Twins have needs in the outfield for 2024 so would likely need a large compensation in a trade to make it work.   

His babip the second half last year was top 10 in all of baseball.....good luck with that being sustainable.

If a team pays Kepler more than 20 million a year in 2025 I'll be very, very, surprised.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

3 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

His babip the second half last year was top 10 in all of baseball.....good luck with that being sustainable.

If a team pays Kepler more than 20 million a year in 2025 I'll be very, very, surprised.

https://www.twinkietown.com/2023/8/14/23830490/mlb-minnesota-twins-max-kepler-is-locked-in-sweet-spot-crushing-fastballs

When you are hitting balls with more velocity and better launch angles than slow rollers to second base,  yes you will go from a player that had the worst babip for 3 years running to a much higher babip.  He was a 4 WAR during that period,  an 8-9 WAR extrapolated for the season.  No I don't expect that high of a babip.  But to run higher than previous is a decent expectation where he was a 2 WAR with  .230 BA.  He is an excellent player in the .250 to .260 BA.  

[Riverbrian]

I wouldn't have a ton of interest in either of them to be honest. But if comparing Verdugo to Kepler for one year in 2024. I'd have to go with Kepler because Kepler at least had two months where he was damn near elite so the potential to be something more than an average veteran exists with Kepler. If he's back with us... Fine... but he better earn it.   

Statistically... If you compare Verdugo's 2023 with 2023 Twins players and what they produced statistically.

I'd say Willie Castro was the closest comp to Verdugo and that's not a very good comp because Castro had more yet similar power (9 dingers in 409 PA's compared to 13 in 602 AB's, similar OBP but Castro has a lot more speed and he played a lot more positions capably.

With Verdugo... you are talking about less than Castro in my opinion.    

If you look at the past three years of Verdugo... He's been pretty much the same player every year. 600 plus AB's every year so healthy but the same power numbers, same batting average, the same everything with only slight deviations from year to year.

He has been consistently average. Yet despite being consistently average... he still got 600 AB's like the Red Sox couldn't live without him... 600 AB's like he was Mike Trout or Mookie Betts and yet Willie Castro was better. You don't commit 600 AB's to average. 

I just don't waste my time with average veterans... I have no interest in giving average veterans 600 AB's when those average numbers can be reproduced by somebody in the raffle drum that is loaded with players that nobody has heard of and therefore never talked about because they are average players blocked by average veterans getting 600 AB's.

Players like Willie Castro for example.       

  

[tony&rodney]

There are good arguments with a slew of statistical data used to support both the original post and the following comments. I don't see Verdugo as being a player with the talent of Kepler in really any way. 

The cost of players varies so greatly. In mid June, Kepler was being skewered. Now, things look different. Last season Candelario was released by the Tigers. Now, he is worth 3/$45 million plus an option year. I'm not sure why the Red Sox continually put Verdugo in the lineup because he is merely ok without any leanings towards above average. Maybe Boston is scarred from trading Betts. Finally, the Red Sox got rid of him. Kepler shows streaks of excellence but also has had some less than stellar years. He will get a large salary as a free agent, one which leaves his detractors shaking their heads.

The Twins would trade Kepler in a heartbeat if an offer that makes sense come across the wire. It won't (or should not) be for a nondescript pile of relief pitchers. In the meantime, Kepler may just repeat his second half performance over a full year in 2024.

[Major League Ready]

On 12/6/2023 at 12:57 PM, nicksaviking said:

The Twins need offense. If Kepler's 2-3 WAR is almost entirely on the defensive side of the equation, as it usually is, it's not fixing the Twins biggest need.

Fangraphs actually has him as slightly below average defensively which does not match what I thought I saw on the field.

[specialiststeve]

Funny how people forget how HORRIBLE he was the 1st half and "cost" us games with his terrible bat... 

I have always liked Max and he is a good defensive OF but his replacements have at least his ability and if we could get a couple of good prospects for him ... do it. Folks act like his is Juan Soto.. he is "just a guy"... and we have many of those waiting...