Letting Free-Agent Pitchers Walk Was All Part of the Twins' Plan

[JD-TWINS]

2 hours ago, PatG said:

About Gray, as well as he pitched, the Twins lost about as many games as they won with him on the mound.

Is it possible to replace Gray and Maeda with D Keuchel, Mahle, Dobson?? Urias from Dodgers?

 

Kuechel isn’t the answer - Mahle is out for the year - not sure who Dobson is? Urias is out of baseball & the next Trevor Bauer - headed to court! Need to elevate our expectations from this group.

Pretty sure they were 15-19 in Gray’s starts (good point) & when considering a replacement, this needs to be taken into consideration! We don’t need a #1 or #2 to get through the 162 grind - need another reasonable option. If things are looking good we can potentially trade for a top shelf guy at the deadline.

I do think Lopez every 5th day in the playoffs, with travel days mixed in, is a weapon! Paddack/Ober/Varland in some order as a bullpen type game could be very effective! Ryan as our #2 starter is stretching but he could reach that status.

I want to TRADE for Devin Williams, Milwaukee’s All-Star closer & former set-up guy. $6.25M salary is very doable and he’s got 2 years left. Our Pen would be elite!!

Sign Lugo for 2 years at $13M/year ……3.53 ERA in ‘23………..or maybe Wade Miley to eat up 125 innings in spot starts through the year to compliment Varland/Ober……similar mid 3’s ERA over last 3 years!!

Trade Polanco and according to information here our payroll is at $80M…….sign Lugo $13M - pay Williams $6.25M - sign Adam Duvall $8M - Donovan Solano as the RH first baseman & PH $3.25M……..that’s a 1B - CF/LF - Reliever - Starter all for total payroll of $111M - that’s a 28% reduction from last year’s payroll of $154M.

[saviking]

Not sure I" 'd call it our plan as much as we didn't have the money ..

[Doctor Gast]

I was very intrigued by your title, Sherry & liked your ideas. Wilson & Wiemer would be good additions to our club, but would MIL be open to trade them? Burns IMO is out of our range as far prospects & salary for one year & IMO we couldn't extend him. With Courio breaking into MLB this year, will they want to trade their best CFer in '23? maybe. Brewers had a pretty good BP even after they traded Hader, would they be interested in trading Wilson? maybe. It depends if they like what we have to offer. MIL might want to  recieve a SP, IDK if we have a SP we can offer? IMO they could use a 3B man would they be interested Farmer? IMO they could use a upgrade at 2B, would they be interested in Polanco? IMO there's a lot of questions. 

[Brandon]

Last season Gray, Maeda and Pagan cost the Twins close to 21 million.  Next season they would cost over 47 million.    We can get an Ohtani with that kind of money. But I think that is why the Twins have decided to move on.  

[IndianaTwin]

2 hours ago, rv78 said:

No, I said, they should have tried extending him for 1 more season. Not 4 or 3 or even 2. Maybe they did and he didn't accept. Do you know if they did or not?

As @ashbury notes, they essentially did this by making a Qualifying Offer.

Gray knew he had a multi year deal in front of him. I don’t know what the number is, but I’m guessing a one-year extension had to be at least $30M to get him to even consider taking that in favor of the multi year deal he was going to get.

[My Wifes Twins]

4 hours ago, PatG said:

About Gray, as well as he pitched, the Twins lost about as many games as they won with him on the mound.

Is it possible to replace Gray and Maeda with D Keuchel, Mahle, Dobson?? Urias from Dodgers?

 

Severe lack of run support in the 8 losses.

[MMMordabito]

4 hours ago, Blyleven2011 said:

Crazy how Kepler is now a fan favorite  again after 2 1/2 years of everyone wanting to trade him 

Kepler remained a favorite to casual fans.  TD is about the only place where there seemed to be a significant desire that he be shown the door.  

[old nurse]

28 minutes ago, MMMordabito said:

Kepler remained a favorite to casual fans.  TD is about the only place where there seemed to be a significant desire that he be shown the door.  

TD is also the only place that would expect a significant return for a trade of Kepler. A replacement in free agency better than Kepler would cost significantly more, Larnach hasn’t shown he can hit major league pitching. That would leave one of the infielders learning how to play outfield. That would likely lead to a weaker outfield defense on a team that tends to have more than average balls heading to the outfield. Perhaps the casual fan is smarter than expected. 

[nicksaviking]

4 hours ago, rv78 said:

No, I said, they should have tried extending him for 1 more season. Not 4 or 3 or even 2. Maybe they did and he didn't accept. Do you know if they did or not?

He wasn't going to do another extension, he did that when traded to the Reds. The first thing he mentioned in his interview with Do Hyoung Park was that he was dead set at getting to free agency for the fist time.

https://www.mlb.com/news/sonny-gray-on-possible-future-with-twins-before-hitting-free-agency

“But going into Spring Training this year, [my family] wanted to become a free agent. We wanted to experience that. We wanted to see what it's like. I know how good I am. We want to bet on ourselves, essentially, and I know that I have a whole lot left to give to the baseball world.”

[nicksaviking]

22 hours ago, Eris said:

The plan was to develop a pitching pipeline.  Given the cost of acquiring pitching (both via trade and free agency) seems that the original plan is still the way to go. 
 

 

I think we as fans expected to build a 'pitching pipeline' but with hindsight, I don't believe that was the plan at all. Cleveland, with Falvey there, traded for just about all of their starters when they were still controllable. Which is pretty much exactly what the Twins have done since.

I wouldn't have previously agreed with that tactic, but it has merit. Pitchers, particularly young ones, are the least predictable players to judge. Trading for them when they are ready or near ready for MLB action is a much safer bet to produce.

As such, I'd do that again this year.

[Blyleven2011]

6 hours ago, RpR said:

For 31 years the Twins were also ran or worse; last year they finally go to the post season and won.

The question is does the Front Office want to keep the paying fans happy and in the stands or are they willing to put out more crap-shoot meh teams and hope the attendance does not suffer too badly.

Letting top pitching go, it almost points to the latter.🤔

Bly.2011

Not every one wanted to dump Kepler, only some very vocal ones.🤔

I have loved Kepler defense and have always said he has been one of the best right fielders in Twins history  , Oliva was quite good too , cuddyer , Puckett and hunter in between  Oliva and kepler were good but not as good as my two favorite right fielders  ...

Kepler hitting is why they wanted him dfa'd or traded , he's not a lead off hitter or in the 4th slot in the batting order but has been placed there in the past , place him sixth and he responds better with less pressure  ...

[Beast]

Seems like a good idea to let a Cy Young Award finalist walk because you think you might be able trade some negligible trade value for a worse starting pitcher.

What could go wrong there?

“The plan.”  That makes it sound like they had a choice, or think they can di better than a Cy Young finalist for $25 million.  In reality, they won’t pay the money.  There is no “plan.”  

[Blyleven2011]

2 hours ago, MMMordabito said:

Kepler remained a favorite to casual fans.  TD is about the only place where there seemed to be a significant desire that he be shown the door.  

I was just quoting a line of the OP ,,, 

Kepler's defense was never in question  but his hitting just wasn't productive  ,,, 

2019 was a career year for Kepler  and 2020 started well  , but batting 1st or 4th in the lineup,  he just didn't belong there , he's more productive in the 6th slot in the batting order with less pressure  ....

Kepler has been one of the Twins  best rightfielders since Tony  O ...

Some good ones in between , but Tony O  and kepler were / are the elite right fielders the twins have ever had  and are two of my favorite right fielders in our history ...

[dxpavelka]

They MIGHT trade one but they won't trade both.  Too much chance of Larnach being Larnach, Kiriloff being injured and Julien being Miranda.  IF all of those things don't happen maybe both are gone by the deadline but they were expected to be gone by the deadline this past year to and that would have been a mistake.

[Brandon]

Here is another thought son the subject.  Paddack is likely to replace and pitch better than Maeda in 100-120 innings next year.  Put Varland in the pen and as an emergency starter and he pitches 70-90 innings of under 3.00 ERA and you now have about 180 innings of the 288 innings of Maeda and Gray already replaced internally.  We just need to replace another 100-120 innings at an ERA of just over 3.00 and we likely come out ahead and at a much lower cost.  Paddack 2.535 million and Varland under 750 k and ? Vs 47 million for the three mentioned earlier.  Surely we can replace this last innings at a reasonable price.

[Jacksson]

"Don't get me wrong, I have no problem trading players from an area of depth for areas of need but sometimes and this time in particular the FO needed to change their way of thinking and doing business. Picking up options on 2 players that you have replacements for and letting 2 pitchers walk away that you don't have replacements for maybe was the plan but that is not a good plan. Contracts to players like Buxton, Correa and Gallo are huge over-pays and 2023 proved that. The more I see what this FO does the more I question their plan."

It is the way to go when the purse strings are controlled by a Pohlad.  That family has a priority of winning on the PROFIT line of the Income Statement; irrespective of what happens on the playing field.  Already saddled with two burdensome contracts for players with (so far) value that doesn't approach their contract values, the business philosophy was totally obvious.  Twenty million for 1 year of two players with tradable value OR $75 million for 3 years of a pitcher who will be 37 yo at the end of the contract and $24 million for 2 years of a pitcher who will be 38 YO at the end of the contract PLUS $16 million for 2 years of an up and down Relief Pitcher who will be 35 YO at the end of that contract.  So, the BOTTOM LINE is:

TWENTY MILLION OR ONE HUNDRED FIFTEEN MILLION.  Remember Team is owned by the Pohlads  OBVIOUS RESULT !!

[ashbury]

11 hours ago, PatG said:

About Gray, as well as he pitched, the Twins lost about as many games as they won with him on the mound.

In 2023, the Twins averaged 4.6 runs a game while Pablo Lopez was on the mound. They averaged 4.7 for Joe Ryan.  For Sonny Gray? 3.3 runs.   Imagine that much difference in ERA - you think that might affect how often a good pitcher will get a 'W'?

After the starter departed the game, the Twins averaged .9 additional runs in Pablo's games, .7 runs for Joe.  In Sonny's games they averaged .4 more runs. So not only were they less likely to support him during his start, but they were less likely to come back to take a lead.

There needs to be some context when looking at game results for a pitcher.  There's wide variation in what goes on that's out of his hands, unless his name is Shohei and he picks up a bat..

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/MIN/2023-pitching.shtml#all_players_starter_pitching

[Fatbat]

5 hours ago, old nurse said:

TD is also the only place that would expect a significant return for a trade of Kepler. A replacement in free agency better than Kepler would cost significantly more, Larnach hasn’t shown he can hit major league pitching. That would leave one of the infielders learning how to play outfield. That would likely lead to a weaker outfield defense on a team that tends to have more than average balls heading to the outfield. Perhaps the casual fan is smarter than expected. 

Or you bring up a minor leaguer like they did with celestino and wreck them. 

[old nurse]

8 hours ago, Fatbat said:

Or you bring up a minor leaguer like they did with celestino and wreck them. 

Hard to wreck something that was never there 

[TopGunn#22]

Jacksson very succinctly defined what life for a Twins fan under Pohlad ownership is like.  When we had the Mauer, Morneau, Santana years we had a team with 2 MVP's and a multi time Cy Young Award winner.  Yet we never made "the big move" to get the team over the hump to go to a World Series and possibly win it.  

In 1987 they made no such move and still won it.  But they were lucky Vince Coleman was hurt and missed the World Series.  In 1991 they made two key off season acquisitions, Jack Morris and Chili Davis and both came through.  The Pohlad's have never made a trade deadline deal of any great magnitude.  Never a pitcher to be the one-two punch to Santana.  Never the high profile RH hitter to hit between Mauer and Morneau.   

And if you think of it, The Twins have only ever been run by two families...the Griffith's and the Pohlad's.  Even with Killebrew, Carew and Oliva and Jim Perry (two MVP's and a CY Young winner and a HOF RF) the Twins just couldn't get past the mighty Baltimore Orioles in 1969 & 1970.  The Orioles won 109 games in 1969 and 108 in 1970 (and they "slumped" to 101 in 1971 but still had FOUR 20-game winners).  The Orioles were just better than the Twins, but Calvin never made a big trade for an expensive star in 1969 or 1970 at the deadline.  Off-season 1970 we acquired Luis Tiant and Stan Williams from the Guardians, but Luis was coming off arm problems and wasn't quite healthy yet and we gave up on him too soon.  He ended up with the Red Sox and had a lot of good pitching left in that arm.

Now, Twins fans see a team with potentially a really good future, coming off a division championship.  In some respects, I don't mind that they let Gray and Maeda walk.  Maeda is on fumes and the Tigers paid him more than I would have, and Gray, while spectacular in a Bert Blyleven sort of way last season will not come close to what he did for the Twins in any of his upcoming 3 years with the Cardinals.  In my opinion, we cut bait at the right time. 

The problem going forward is what the plan is to fill those holes while dealing with a self imposed cut in payroll?  I maintain that there are trades and signings to be made that not only could enable the Twins to defend their division crown in 2024 and beyond, but also contend for a World Series.  What precisely those moves could be is what we all love to debate day after day here on TD.

Money is great.  It helps a sports team absorb some of the personnel decisions that go bad.  The Dodgers and Yankees among a few others have that luxury.  Teams like the Twins, Cleveland, Milwaukee or the Reds give themselves very thin margins.  Could the Twins allow themselves a little bit more of a margin compared to the teams I just mentioned?  Absolutely!!  But the wealthy Pohlad's by choice do not.   

One team that to me appears to have tremendous potential and is on the verge of being a dominant power for several years is Seattle.  They have a bona fide superstar in Julio Rodriguez.  Twins fans "hope" that Lewis or Jenkins (or both) could be that guy.  The Mariners are flush with pitching, some established, most of it young and controllable.  As thirsty as virtually every other team in MLB is for pitching, the Mariners are a lemonade stand in the middle of the desert.  And they have both the reigning N.L. Cy Young Award winner (Blake Snell) and the hottest pitching prospect since Ohtani (Yoshi Yamamoto) clamoring to sign with them (provided the dollars are commensurate with the market).  Even Shohei Ohtani has mentioned he'd be interested in playing for them.  They are NOT the Dodgers or Yankees.  How much money can Seattle afford to shell out?  They're suddenly the prettiest girl in school and prom is just around the corner.

As much as I'm curious to see what the Twins will do, I can't wait to see what the Mariners decide to do.  

I can't believe I'm saying this, but in some ways it must be excruciating to be a Mariners fan right now.  SO MUCH POTENTIAL !!  But how to maximize it?

[Aerodeliria]

Of course their plan was to let them walk, but it does not imply that their plans also include going after an upgrade in pitching. It could simply be a money dump. I'm skeptical that it is not that to be honest. I hope that my inclination is wrong, but I don't see clues pointing towards landing an upgrade at this point.

[Blyleven2011]

9 minutes ago, Aerodeliria said:

Of course their plan was to let them walk, but it does not imply that their plans also include going after an upgrade in pitching. It could simply be a money dump. I'm skeptical that it is not that to be honest. I hope that my inclination is wrong, but I don't see clues pointing towards landing an upgrade at this point.

Getting it right ... Hitting on the upgrade ...

Something needs to be addressed on pitching and they can't use payroll as an excuse ... 

The fans aren't accepting that while 2023  had the pitching that took them to the playoffs ...

[tony&rodney]

22 hours ago, Fatbat said:

@tony&rodney I agree that Paddock has a higher ceiling than Maeda which is why they let him walk butI would have offered him the QO to get either the extra draft pic and extra signing $$$or the stability of less player turnover.  The FO chose the cheap option by letting him walk for nothing safe budget saving. 

The Twins signed Chris Paddack to a three year contract after he was injured, which was shortly after he arrived via trade.

I believe I stated that Paddack is being counted on next season to provide 100-120 innings if everything goes perfectly. I do not believe Paddack has a higher ceiling than Kenta Maeda. Paddack has more velocity on his fastball, but it is quite a stretch to see Paddack having a career as effective as the one achieved by Kenta Maeda. To be clear, Chris Paddack can still have a fine career and I hope he blows by any and all markers already achieved by Maeda. This is, however, a hope for the future.

[dxpavelka]

16 hours ago, Jacksson said:

"Don't get me wrong, I have no problem trading players from an area of depth for areas of need but sometimes and this time in particular the FO needed to change their way of thinking and doing business. Picking up options on 2 players that you have replacements for and letting 2 pitchers walk away that you don't have replacements for maybe was the plan but that is not a good plan. Contracts to players like Buxton, Correa and Gallo are huge over-pays and 2023 proved that. The more I see what this FO does the more I question their plan."

It is the way to go when the purse strings are controlled by a Pohlad.  That family has a priority of winning on the PROFIT line of the Income Statement; irrespective of what happens on the playing field.  Already saddled with two burdensome contracts for players with (so far) value that doesn't approach their contract values, the business philosophy was totally obvious.  Twenty million for 1 year of two players with tradable value OR $75 million for 3 years of a pitcher who will be 37 yo at the end of the contract and $24 million for 2 years of a pitcher who will be 38 YO at the end of the contract PLUS $16 million for 2 years of an up and down Relief Pitcher who will be 35 YO at the end of that contract.  So, the BOTTOM LINE is:

TWENTY MILLION OR ONE HUNDRED FIFTEEN MILLION.  Remember Team is owned by the Pohlads  OBVIOUS RESULT !!

Always sad to read the comments of someone obviously too young to remember the state of the Twins BEFORE the Pohland's bought it.

[wabene]

7 hours ago, old nurse said:

Hard to wreck something that was never there 

When a player is brought up with limited high minors experience, fails and then never does put it together, there is no way to know if the handling of said player caused the outcome. 

[old nurse]

4 hours ago, wabene said:

When a player is brought up with limited high minors experience, fails and then never does put it together, there is no way to know if the handling of said player caused the outcome. 

Your argument could be made for any minor league player. The outcome would be supported by data as to what his ceiling would be. A ground ball hitter with no power. Adequate fielding but not spectacular. That is what he is and the Twins did not wreck that as far as further development, he would need to have a pretty big uptick to be viable as anything but a defensive replacement. 

[wabene]

50 minutes ago, old nurse said:

Your argument could be made for any minor league player. The outcome would be supported by data as to what his ceiling would be. A ground ball hitter with no power. Adequate fielding but not spectacular. That is what he is and the Twins did not wreck that as far as further development, he would need to have a pretty big uptick to be viable as anything but a defensive replacement. 

A hard look at Cele's minor league career statistics confirms that you are correct, 👍

[Doctor Wu]

If they front office has an actual plan, I'd be curious what it entails.