Two Trade Targets at First Base Who Could Transform the Twins Lineup

[Nick Nelson]

The last time the Twins were riding momentum like this heading into an offseason, they swung big, albeit not quite in the way people expected.

If the front office wants to build on a strong offensive foundation like they did with the Josh Donaldson signing, these two trade targets would seriously upgrade the heart of the Minnesota lineup for 2024.

Image courtesy of Eric Hartline, Gregory Fisher-USA TODAY Sports

Coming off a 101-win season in 2019 where their pitching fell short in the playoffs, everyone expected the Minnesota Twins to move aggressively on arms in free agency. By all accounts, they tried, but were unable to woo their top targets.

So the front office pivoted. They were determined to make an emphatic addition that would energize the fanbase and further elevate their ascendant squad. Minnesota made an ambitious addition at a position that didn't really seem like much of a need, because the opportunity was there.

The Twins signed Josh Donaldson to be their new third baseman, and shifted Miguel Sano to first base in order to accommodate the move. The idea was that infusing Donaldson's high-end bat into an already potent lineup would serve to elevate an offense that already ranked near the top of the league.

That move didn't work out particularly well, but the rationale was sound. This winter, if the Twins want to bring in a proven big bopper who can dramatically upgrade a lineup that already ranked as one of the league's best in the second half, they should seek to do it at first base, where there's flexibility to add. And they should look to the trade market rather than free agency, where two opportunities exist to add a potentially elite right-handed bat.

There are reasons to believe Paul Goldschmidt and Pete Alonso could be available this offseason at a somewhat reasonable cost, and either one would have the makings of a huge difference-maker in the Twins offense.

Paul Goldschmidt, STL
Goldschmidt has been one of the league's premier players for more than a decade. Since splashing onto the scene with Arizona back in 2012, Goldy ranks fourth among MLB players in fWAR. The only players to total more home runs during that span: Mike Trout, Nelson Cruz, Giancarlo Stanton. Goldschmidt has been a top-three finisher for the MVP award four times, including 2022 when he won it. 

So why would he potentially be available in trade talks? A few reasons:

• Goldschmidt is reaching the end of his $130 million contract, with one year remaining at $26 million. Trading him now would allow the Cardinals to recoup value while also experiencing some payroll relief.
• The veteran first baseman turned 36 in September, and showed signs of possible decline this year with his lowest OPS+ (120) since he was a rookie back in 2011.
• The Cardinals have been a relentlessly competitive team over the years, but they are coming off a last-place finish and might need to be realistic about their outlook for 2024. Does it really behoove them to hold onto an aging and expensive first baseman if St. Louis isn't serious about making a push?

It definitely bears noting that Goldschmidt has a full no-trade clause. He would need to approve and sign off on any hypothetical deal. It's possible that would require an extension from the acquiring team, if it's an option at all. Goldy may very well prefer staying where he's comfortable for another year and figuring out his plan then.

However, I'll say this: his name was definitely floating around at the last trade deadline. And he was recently listed off by top MLB insider Jeff Passan as one of several candidates to be moved this offseason. Maybe Goldschmidt looks at the opportunity to join Carlos Correa in leading an ascendant Twins team as inviting after a 91-loss slog with the Cards. (Who just inspiringly signed Lance Lynn.)

For a more straightforward but arguably less ideal fit, let's turn our attention to the second candidate I'm highlighting today.

Pete Alonso, 1B

Unlike Goldschmidt, you don't have a manufacture a scenario where Alonso gets traded this offseason. He's being mentioned far and wide in the rumor mill, entering his final season of arbitration with a projected price tag in the $22 million range. 

Steve Cohen and the Mets aren't going to trade Alonso just to dump his salary, although it might help pave the way for another big splash. They are likely seeking to shift their identity after the 2023 club was an expensive disaster. There's been little indication they plan to extend him, so it only makes sense the Mets would shop their 28-year-old three-time All Star around and see if they could get a haul.

Alonso embodies what the Twins have valued as an offensive profile: he hits the ball extremely hard and launches a ton of home runs. He hit 53 home runs while winning Rookie of the Year in 2019, and has averaged 41 in three full seasons since. That includes a most recent 2023 campaign in which the "Polar Bear" went deep 46 times for New York. 

Needless to say, the cost to acquire him would be high. Which is a little scary because – in what might sound familiar to Twins fans – Alonso offered relatively little value outside of all those home runs this year. 

He batted .217 and struck out 150 times. Despite leading the league in HBP, he finished with a mere .318 on-base percentage. His defense rates out poorly and he's extremely slow. 

Of course, that's only one season. In 2022, Alonso was an all-out monster, posting a 146 OPS+ with 131 RBIs and 3.8 fWAR. He didn't finish too far behind Goldschmidt (the winner) in the MVP voting. While the aging Goldy is on the downslope of his career, Alonso might yet be on the way up.

For that reason, he'll probably be aiming to land with a team that plans to give him a contract extension. I can't imagine that being the Twins. Making room for his salary in 2024 would be tricky enough, let alone committing the nine-digit sum necessary to lock up an all-or-nothing RH power bat when they're already beholden to one in Byron Buxton.

Goldschmidt's $26 million salary would be tougher to accommodate in the short-term, but trading Max Kepler would help offset the addition somewhat, and in turn, Alex Kirilloff could slide to the outfield to make room for a new full-time first baseman.

If the Twins choose to target an explosive first baseman to upgrade the heart of their lineup and elevate their offensive ceiling to new heights, there are two very legitimate options out there. That is, if they are willing to pay the price, in prospects and dollars.

View full article

[Badjuggler]

No thanks. Ride with Kirilloff. Go young.

[Fatbat]

Goldschmidt is on the downslide and we absolutely don’t need to go that route again. Its not even worth discussing but I’m sure someone will want to do so. 
Alonso would be great to trade for  but a salary extension along with the cost of trading top prospects is just ridiculous. It’s the type of gamble that gets GMs fired if it goes bad. 

[PatPfund]

I agree this would be like 2020 when the Twins were dominant offensively, had definite pitching needs, and chose more offense. This team just lost 40% of its starting rotation to free agency, and should have two of its most potent young (aka affordable) bats available at 1B (LH) Kirilloff (whose injury was blessedly NOT wrist related), and (RH) Miranda. Pitching is going to cost in money and/or prospects, and the fact we only added young position players to the 40-man doesn't exactly scream our system will supply the SPs.

(Frankly, if we keep Polanco, I'd like to see him at 1B. He could use the position flexibility, and while I applaud his guts at 3B, if I never see him play there again that would be just fine.)

[CRF]

I really can't see either one of these deals taking place. Goldy had a pretty significant drop off last season too. He's definitely coming to the end in a year or two.  Would I like to have Alonso mashing in the middle of the Twins lineup? Hell, yeah...but it's not going to happen. It's nice to dream though. 

[darin617]

Or simply save the prospects and sign Adam Duvall. Give him 500 AB in 2024 between 1st, OF, and DH and I can't see why he wouldn't bring 25-30 HR. 

[Karbo]

I don't see either of these as a realistic deal. Trying to trim payroll and taking on Goldy's salary or 1 year of Alonso. If they have that kind of money to use, go for pitching!

[Doctor Gast]

I like how you brought up Donaldson to remind us how this FO after striking out signing any viable FA SP, that they back track to Donaldson to try appease the fanbase.

We could use another Nellie Cruz type hitter to fill in at 1B because DH is taken unfortunately. Especially because of the budget squeeze, I'd rather roll with some kind of Julien, Kiriloff, Miranda, Farmer or even Buxton combination & spend the money else where.

[JD-TWINS]

2 hours ago, darin617 said:

Or simply save the prospects and sign Adam Duvall. Give him 500 AB in 2024 between 1st, OF, and DH and I can't see why he wouldn't bring 25-30 HR. 

Don’t get the allure to Duvall?

There are essentially zero AB’s at DH available outside of Buxton & Julien. Even if we trade Polanco, Lee will be up by end of June & Julien will be primary DH v. RH pitching.

Kirilloff will play 1B 80% of the time.

Wallner - Castro/Buxton - Kepler have the OF reps with Gordon/Martin/Larnach in the wings.

[darin617]

28 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Don’t get the allure to Duvall?

There are essentially zero AB’s at DH available outside of Buxton & Julien. Even if we trade Polanco, Lee will be up by end of June & Julien will be primary DH v. RH pitching.

Kirilloff will play 1B 80% of the time.

Wallner - Castro/Buxton - Kepler have the OF reps with Gordon/Martin/Larnach in the wings.

Duvall only had 320 AB last year and hit 21 HR. Kirilloff sadly is like Buxton and can't stay healthy.  Trading Kepler in a package for a SP also opens another spot for Duvall. Like I tried saying if he gets 500 AB that's 30 HR this team could use for sure.

[Fatbat]

12 minutes ago, darin617 said:

Duvall only had 320 AB last year and hit 21 HR. Kirilloff sadly is like Buxton and can't stay healthy.  Trading Kepler in a package for a SP also opens another spot for Duvall. Like I tried saying if he gets 500 AB that's 30 HR this team could use for sure.

AK and Buck are not on the same injury level. AK has a 1000% greater chance at playing 140 games than Buck in ‘24. 

[DocBauer]

3 hours ago, darin617 said:

Or simply save the prospects and sign Adam Duvall. Give him 500 AB in 2024 between 1st, OF, and DH and I can't see why he wouldn't bring 25-30 HR. 

I'd rather he get 350 AB. Every day against LHP, being a PH, but still a decent enough bat he can also play against RHP at times. Think he made $7M in 2023? Not sure that's affordable, unless some other contracts are moved. But he'd be a nice part of the plan and only cost $ and not prospects.

[Blyleven2011]

Nice article nick , I was wrong after I re-read your article  ...

 

[miller761]

What about signing Rhys Hoskins? What would that cost? Add a RH power bat?

 

 

[rv78]

#1 reason not to do it. They are both too expensive.

#2 reason not to do it, Goldschmidt is past his prime and could see a significant drop off in production. 2023 started to show that already.

#3 reason not to do it, Alonso had a BA of .217 last year. Maybe it's an anomaly but the Twins already have enough of those players that try to bash and give away at bats swinging for the fences.

#4 reason not to do it, Replacing Gray and Maeda should be priority #1. I would add that another rotation spot is very questionable by counting on Paddack to hold it for the whole season just coming off TJ surgery. This team doesn't even make it back to the playoffs without adding 1 or 2 quality starters in some way, and I'm not sure that Pablo Lopez can be considered an Ace just yet given his past history. Yes his last 2 seasons have been very good but let's not jump on the wagon and say he'll never regress. It happens.

[darin617]

5 hours ago, miller761 said:

What about signing Rhys Hoskins? What would that cost? Add a RH power bat?

 

 

I would think 17M at least and probably 4 years. Could be more money on a shorter length of contract.

[darin617]

4 hours ago, rv78 said:

#1 reason not to do it. They are both too expensive.

#2 reason not to do it, Goldschmidt is past his prime and could see a significant drop off in production. 2023 started to show that already.

#3 reason not to do it, Alonso had a BA of .217 last year. Maybe it's an anomaly but the Twins already have enough of those players that try to bash and give away at bats swinging for the fences.

#4 reason not to do it, Replacing Gray and Maeda should be priority #1. I would add that another rotation spot is very questionable by counting on Paddack to hold it for the whole season just coming off TJ surgery. This team doesn't even make it back to the playoffs without adding 1 or 2 quality starters in some way, and I'm not sure that Pablo Lopez can be considered an Ace just yet given his past history. Yes his last 2 seasons have been very good but let's not jump on the wagon and say he'll never regress. It happens.

Maeda is easily replaced by Paddack. Gray on the other hand is not easy for any team. Their best bet would be to pursue a trade with Seattle or possibly another try with Miami.

[Doctor Wu]

Neither player excites me. I'd rather bring back a slimmer and motivated Miguel Sano ... if such a thing even exists1

[Brett]

If we’re going to spend that much, I would prefer it to go toward a frontline starter. Pitching seems to carry us farther in the playoffs.

[Whitey333]

No to both players.  They are too old and expensive.  Spend it on starting pitching.  Dumb Kepler and Vasquez to safe money.  Byron Buxton?  Who's he?  It's amazing that after 8 years some people expect him to be a big superstar.   Get over him.  He's toast.  Albeit an expensive, non- producing toast.

[TopGunn#22]

Gotta pass on Goldy, though he's a future HOF.  Alonso would be an interesting addition.  He's better than a .217 hitter and the power and RBI's are undeniable.  But he profiles more as a DH and with Buxton's millstone contract dragging the Twins down plus the fact that Alonso is a Scott Boras client, the likelihood of him signing an extension with the Twins is VERY small.

That said, Alonso's BBTV is only 12.0.  That's not prohibitive in any respect.  Would a one-year rental be worth it?  The Mets are not getting "a haul" with his value at twelve.  I know BBTV has some limitations, but they've put him in a ballpark that is not exactly Fernando Tatis/Julio Rodriguez territory.

Adam Duval was the guy I wanted the Twins to sign instead of Gallo last year and I couldn't believe the Twins went with a redundant LH bat.  Gallo had good defensive metrics at 1B and the OF but Duval also had good defensive metrics in the OF and was capable of playing CF in addition to the corners.  He could have been a RH platoon in LF and provided "Buxton Insurance" for CF.  Our FO blundered and went with Gallo.  Depending on how other moves play out, Duval would be a great fit with the Twins.  Especially if LH hitting OF like Kepler and Larnach are moved.  He's a solid RH power bat with above average defense.  Bat him 7th.  Both the Braves in 2022 and the Red Sox in 2023 didn't regret acquiring him.  

[Fatbat]

8 hours ago, Whitey333 said:

No to both players.  They are too old and expensive.  Spend it on starting pitching.  Dumb Kepler and Vasquez to safe money.  Byron Buxton?  Who's he?  It's amazing that after 8 years some people expect him to be a big superstar.   Get over him.  He's toast.  Albeit an expensive, non- producing toast.

I'm all in on Buxton for 1 more year 🤡💀

[Major League Ready]

8 hours ago, TopGunn#22 said:

Gotta pass on Goldy, though he's a future HOF.  Alonso would be an interesting addition.  He's better than a .217 hitter and the power and RBI's are undeniable.  But he profiles more as a DH and with Buxton's millstone contract dragging the Twins down plus the fact that Alonso is a Scott Boras client, the likelihood of him signing an extension with the Twins is VERY small.

That said, Alonso's BBTV is only 12.0.  That's not prohibitive in any respect.  Would a one-year rental be worth it?  The Mets are not getting "a haul" with his value at twelve.  I know BBTV has some limitations, but they've put him in a ballpark that is not exactly Fernando Tatis/Julio Rodriguez territory.

Adam Duval was the guy I wanted the Twins to sign instead of Gallo last year and I couldn't believe the Twins went with a redundant LH bat.  Gallo had good defensive metrics at 1B and the OF but Duval also had good defensive metrics in the OF and was capable of playing CF in addition to the corners.  He could have been a RH platoon in LF and provided "Buxton Insurance" for CF.  Our FO blundered and went with Gallo.  Depending on how other moves play out, Duval would be a great fit with the Twins.  Especially if LH hitting OF like Kepler and Larnach are moved.  He's a solid RH power bat with above average defense.  Bat him 7th.  Both the Braves in 2022 and the Red Sox in 2023 didn't regret acquiring him.  

Good call on Duvall.  I had not thought of him.  I see that he still played a lot of CF last year.  Interesting possibility if he can still play a good CF at 35.  

[Johnny Ringo]

If I were going to spend $22 million a year on someone it would be a guy who plays 64 feet from first base and takes 4 days off regularly. Unless, of course, you are dying to wear your Dobnak jersey again.