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Coming off a 101-win season in 2019 where their pitching fell short in the playoffs, everyone expected the Minnesota Twins to move aggressively on arms in free agency. By all accounts, they tried, but were unable to woo their top targets.
So the front office pivoted. They were determined to make an emphatic addition that would energize the fanbase and further elevate their ascendant squad. Minnesota made an ambitious addition at a position that didn't really seem like much of a need, because the opportunity was there.
The Twins signed Josh Donaldson to be their new third baseman, and shifted Miguel Sano to first base in order to accommodate the move. The idea was that infusing Donaldson's high-end bat into an already potent lineup would serve to elevate an offense that already ranked near the top of the league.
That move didn't work out particularly well, but the rationale was sound. This winter, if the Twins want to bring in a proven big bopper who can dramatically upgrade a lineup that already ranked as one of the league's best in the second half, they should seek to do it at first base, where there's flexibility to add. And they should look to the trade market rather than free agency, where two opportunities exist to add a potentially elite right-handed bat.
There are reasons to believe Paul Goldschmidt and Pete Alonso could be available this offseason at a somewhat reasonable cost, and either one would have the makings of a huge difference-maker in the Twins offense.
Paul Goldschmidt, STL
Goldschmidt has been one of the league's premier players for more than a decade. Since splashing onto the scene with Arizona back in 2012, Goldy ranks fourth among MLB players in fWAR. The only players to total more home runs during that span: Mike Trout, Nelson Cruz, Giancarlo Stanton. Goldschmidt has been a top-three finisher for the MVP award four times, including 2022 when he won it.
So why would he potentially be available in trade talks? A few reasons:
- Goldschmidt is reaching the end of his $130 million contract, with one year remaining at $26 million. Trading him now would allow the Cardinals to recoup value while also experiencing some payroll relief.
- The veteran first baseman turned 36 in September, and showed signs of possible decline this year with his lowest OPS+ (120) since he was a rookie back in 2011.
- The Cardinals have been a relentlessly competitive team over the years, but they are coming off a last-place finish and might need to be realistic about their outlook for 2024. Does it really behoove them to hold onto an aging and expensive first baseman if St. Louis isn't serious about making a push?
It definitely bears noting that Goldschmidt has a full no-trade clause. He would need to approve and sign off on any hypothetical deal. It's possible that would require an extension from the acquiring team, if it's an option at all. Goldy may very well prefer staying where he's comfortable for another year and figuring out his plan then.
However, I'll say this: his name was definitely floating around at the last trade deadline. And he was recently listed off by top MLB insider Jeff Passan as one of several candidates to be moved this offseason. Maybe Goldschmidt looks at the opportunity to join Carlos Correa in leading an ascendant Twins team as inviting after a 91-loss slog with the Cards. (Who just inspiringly signed Lance Lynn.)
For a more straightforward but arguably less ideal fit, let's turn our attention to the second candidate I'm highlighting today.
Pete Alonso, 1B
Unlike Goldschmidt, you don't have a manufacture a scenario where Alonso gets traded this offseason. He's being mentioned far and wide in the rumor mill, entering his final season of arbitration with a projected price tag in the $22 million range.
Steve Cohen and the Mets aren't going to trade Alonso just to dump his salary, although it might help pave the way for another big splash. They are likely seeking to shift their identity after the 2023 club was an expensive disaster. There's been little indication they plan to extend him, so it only makes sense the Mets would shop their 28-year-old three-time All Star around and see if they could get a haul.
Alonso embodies what the Twins have valued as an offensive profile: he hits the ball extremely hard and launches a ton of home runs. He hit 53 home runs while winning Rookie of the Year in 2019, and has averaged 41 in three full seasons since. That includes a most recent 2023 campaign in which the "Polar Bear" went deep 46 times for New York.
Needless to say, the cost to acquire him would be high. Which is a little scary because – in what might sound familiar to Twins fans – Alonso offered relatively little value outside of all those home runs this year.
He batted .217 and struck out 150 times. Despite leading the league in HBP, he finished with a mere .318 on-base percentage. His defense rates out poorly and he's extremely slow.
Of course, that's only one season. In 2022, Alonso was an all-out monster, posting a 146 OPS+ with 131 RBIs and 3.8 fWAR. He didn't finish too far behind Goldschmidt (the winner) in the MVP voting. While the aging Goldy is on the downslope of his career, Alonso might yet be on the way up.
For that reason, he'll probably be aiming to land with a team that plans to give him a contract extension. I can't imagine that being the Twins. Making room for his salary in 2024 would be tricky enough, let alone committing the nine-digit sum necessary to lock up an all-or-nothing RH power bat when they're already beholden to one in Byron Buxton.
Goldschmidt's $26 million salary would be tougher to accommodate in the short-term, but trading Max Kepler would help offset the addition somewhat, and in turn, Alex Kirilloff could slide to the outfield to make room for a new full-time first baseman.
If the Twins choose to target an explosive first baseman to upgrade the heart of their lineup and elevate their offensive ceiling to new heights, there are two very legitimate options out there. That is, if they are willing to pay the price, in prospects and dollars.
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