What Will It Take To Replace Sonny Gray? It Depends

[Greggory Masterson]

Sonny Gray needs a replacement. Who that replacement needs to be depends on what you see Sonny Gray as. Let's explore the many Sonny Grays.

Image courtesy of Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

Sonny Gray was the 2023 Minnesota Twins Most Valuable Player. He’s also an impending free agent, and all signs point to him not being a Minnesota Twin in 2023. He will likely reject the one-year, $20 million qualifying offer, and the Derek Falvey regime has never signed a starting pitcher to the money that Gray’s market will demand.

If Gray is not returning, he has to be replaced. However, replacing Gray could mean several different things. The answer to “How will the Twins replace Sonny Gray?” probably depends on what you personally mean by “Sonny Gray.” Here are five interpretations of what “replacing Sonny Gray” means and what it would take in free agency.

A Starting Pitcher

This one is the easiest. If Sonny Gray is gone, the bare minimum that needs to happen is that he is replaced in the starting rotation. Technically, any pitcher will do. Gray threw 184 innings in 2023—the third most of his career and his most innings since 2015. Someone needs to throw those innings.

That someone could be an internal option like Louie Varland or David Festa or any free agent pitcher, even someone in the Old Friend Kyle Gibson or Martin Perez Bin. For all of our sakes, it should not be one of them, but that’s the barest of minimums that prevents Nick Gordon from pitching every fifth day.

A Playoff Starter

Gray started two of the Twins’ six playoff games in 2023. Although he did not pitch Game 1, as the honor was given to Pablo Lopez, in many seasons Gray would have been given the ball to start the first game of the postseason. Lopez made two starts, and Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober were each given a start, though they were effectively used as openers.

Perhaps in 2024, the two younger arms will have earned the trust to be a true playoff starter, but that, again, is a role that will be necessary to fill. If Gray does not return, there needs to be another starter in the rotation that the Twins feel comfortable handling a spot in the playoff rotation.

 

Gray had a season that set him up to be a Game 1 or 2 starter, but someone also needs to pitch a Game 3 or 4. Hypothetically, that would be a top-40 pitcher in the league, at minimum. Eduardo Rodriguez and Michael Wacha, or someone of that ilk, would fit this role. 

A Frontline Starter

Gray was not just a quality starter; he performed as one of the top starters in baseball. Every five days, he was one of the pitchers trusted to keep his team in every game he started. Although he only won eight games, the Twins had his starts circled on their calendars as winnable games, regardless of who they played.

Replacing that type of starter is increasingly more work. On the free agent market, you’re getting into the $20 million average annual value space. Replacing Gray this way would require finding another pitcher to pair with Lopez as a 1, a 1b, or a 2. At the barest of minimums, this starter would need to be better than Joe Ryan—though Ryan has shown flashes of getting to this level himself.

Bringing in that frontline starter, if not Gray, would require shopping in the Aaron Nola or Yoshinobu Yamamoto market. There are only a handful of these players, and they’re expensive. Derek Falvey, although he has courted this type of pitcher in the past, has never successfully signed one as a free agent.

A Cy Young Candidate

Gray will finish at minimum in the top three spots for the American League Cy Young Award, meaning that he performed at an elite level in 2023, doing all that the Twins could have asked of him when they traded the 2021 first-round pick Chase Petty for him.

That type of pitcher, as it stands, does not reside in the free agent list. There are no Gerrit Coles or Justin Verlanders. The moment has passed for current free agent Clayton Kershaw. The closest match is that of Blake Snell, a former winner himself, who is surrounded by questions related to his walk rate and age,

Any team hoping to sign a Cy Young-caliber starter in free agency in any year without the budget of the Yankees or the Dodgers is fighting a losing battle. Gray himself is not that guy. He probably just pitched the best season of his career, and he’s reached his mid-30s. Even re-signing him doesn’t fill that hole.

Approximately Five Wins Above Replacement

This concept was explored recently by Hunter McCall. Gray, according to both FanGraphs and Baseball Reference, was worth approximately 5 WAR. As discussed in the previous section, it’s hard to find a solution in free agency that will make up for his loss on its own. Sonny Gray probably won’t have a 5 WAR season himself.

To paraphrase Moneyball, the Twins need to replace Gray in the aggregate. It doesn’t need to a single replacement worth 5 WAR. Unless they were to trade for a player and make a year-to-year improvement with him as they did with Lopez, that WAR must come from multiple sources.

The Twins are replacing both Gray and Kenta Maeda (about 1.5 WAR) this offseason—presumably with Chris Paddack and some other pitcher. If the Twins were to sign a top-flight free agent who was worth 4 WAR in 2024, and Paddack was worth 3 WAR, they would have made up for Gray in the aggregate. If the new free agent was worth 2.5 WAR, Paddack was worth 2.5, and then Ryan and Ober each raised their own by 1 WAR, they will have made up for Gray’s absence in the aggregate. There are many ways to reach that magic number, but whatever the Twins come up with must work.

The solution and necessary work come down to the interpretation of what Gray meant to this year’s team. What is your read on the situation? What do you need to see from the Twins to believe that Gray will have been replaced in 2024? Leave a comment.

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[Karbo]

Paddack has the potential to come fairly close to Gray. Then signing Maeda or someone in that tier is a pretty good bet. Then hope they get some improvement from Ober and Ryan they should be OK. The pitching wasn't the problem last season, it was the bats and clutch hitting IMO. At least if Gray leaves (as I think he will) they can save enough money to get a hitter that crushes lefties.

[Mike Sixel]

I mean, if the goal is winning in the playoffs, you need to see an elite pitcher. Replacing him in the aggregate works for the regular season..... But not the playoffs without luck. 

[Ricky Vaughn]

Replace him in the aggregate, and then when the broadcast money gets settled keep some cash available so an ace type pitcher can be traded for at the deadline.

[jdgoin]

I'm not sure the Sonny Gray market is going to be overly robust. While I'm guessing he turns down the QO, I'm not sure about a lengthy deal, high dollar deal. In the end somebody probably gives him fewer years and a high dollar amount. But you have a 34 year old pitcher with a long injury history. He essentially put up the same numbers in 2023 as he has throughout his career. The big difference this past season was fewer HRs and more innings because of health. His other metrics are all very similar to his career numbers. K%, BB%, SwStr%, F-Strike%, etc. do not indicate to me that there is more in the tank. The addition of the cutter certainly helped with RHH but I think you're looking at more of a #3 starter than a top of the rotation guy.

[terrydactyls]

Open up vault and sign Yamamoto.

[Mike Sixel]

6 minutes ago, Ricky Vaughn said:

Replace him in the aggregate, and then when the broadcast money gets settled keep some cash available so an ace type pitcher can be traded for at the deadline.

Assuming one is there.....is there usually? I don't know, hence the question. I don't think any ACE was traded the last two trade deadlines, other than the one that cost two top 25 prospects and another top 100 one, which the Twins will never do.

[Mike Sixel]

5 minutes ago, jdgoin said:

I'm not sure the Sonny Gray market is going to be overly robust. While I'm guessing he turns down the QO, I'm not sure about a lengthy deal, high dollar deal. In the end somebody probably gives him fewer years and a high dollar amount. But you have a 34 year old pitcher with a long injury history. He essentially put up the same numbers in 2023 as he has throughout his career. The big difference this past season was fewer HRs and more innings because of health. His other metrics are all very similar to his career numbers. K%, BB%, SwStr%, F-Strike%, etc. do not indicate to me that there is more in the tank. The addition of the cutter certainly helped with RHH but I think you're looking at more of a #3 starter than a top of the rotation guy.

I'm not sure what this has to do with the OP? Why do you think that last thing? He was one of the 10 best pitchers in baseball this year....and he's going to be a number 3 next year why?

but....he's getting three years and at least 25 per year, IMO.

[SoDakTwinsFan]

Sign Trevor Bauer.

[Oldgoat_MN]

27 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

Open up vault and sign Yamamoto.

GREAT idea. That would put us in the World Series conversation!

Um, were you offering your vault?

[jdgoin]

5 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'm not sure what this has to do with the OP? Why do you think that last thing? He was one of the 10 best pitchers in baseball this year....and he's going to be a number 3 next year why?

but....he's getting three years and at least 25 per year, IMO.

What is the OP? 

I thought he was more of a #3 starter throughout his career coming into the 2023 season.  Most of his numbers during his career are more of a 3rd starter (or maybe a 65 if you work on a 20-80 scale rather than a 2-to-8) than an ace. Looking at his season the skills that are more sustainable are plus, not elite. His top 10 production in 2023 was driven by HR suppression more than an increase in any skill.  There is a bigger chance the HRs allowed go back more towards his career average pushing up his ERA, FIP, etc.

I agree with you. He probably gets 3 years and $65 to $75. 

[Mike Sixel]

7 minutes ago, jdgoin said:

What is the OP? 

I thought he was more of a #3 starter throughout his career coming into the 2023 season.  Most of his numbers during his career are more of a 3rd starter (or maybe a 65 if you work on a 20-80 scale rather than a 2-to-8) than an ace. Looking at his season the skills that are more sustainable are plus, not elite. His top 10 production in 2023 was driven by HR suppression more than an increase in any skill.  There is a bigger chance the HRs allowed go back more towards his career average pushing up his ERA, FIP, etc.

I agree with you. He probably gets 3 years and $65 to $75. 

original post, which was about replacing Gray.....and what he did last year, not what he might or might not do in the future.

[Blyleven2011]

What pitchers won in the playoffs ...

Lopez and gray ...

Losing gray will hurt us in the playoffs if we make the 2024 playoffs ,  finding a pitcher for the playoffs is a must ...

Don't add just a pitcher that can help win during the season , that is not the goal of the fans , sign or trade for a playoff caliber winner ...

we can't go backwards , it's up to the front office to charge forward and get creative  , don't close the window  ...

Payroll  reduction ,  so the FO says , i hope it isn't a substantial reduction so we can add the pieces we need  ...

Pitching wins and our starters kept us in alot of games  ...

[terrydactyls]

6 hours ago, Oldgoat_MN said:

GREAT idea. That would put us in the World Series conversation!

Um, were you offering your vault?

I'm a retired civil servant.  I have no vault.  But the Pohlads certainly have one.  They bought the Twins for $44M and the team is currently estimated to be worth $1.4B.  I think they can afford to dig deep and go for a title.

[Fatbat]

There are lots of ways to buy WAR. Lots of luck involved with it also.  With a magic wand and fairy dust, Buxton could play CF 125 games and hit 35 HRs. Miranda/ (insert a AAA RH bat) could be healthy and platooning at 1B to crush LH pitching. Varland/Festa/AAA pitcher of the week could develop into an unexpected 120 inning guy with 2.5 WAR. Pablo could be lights out and be a 6WAR cy young finalist. Its much more realistic to trade for it and/or buy it in FA. Spending a total of $129M in opening day salary is the easiest way to not replace Grays 5WAR. 

[TopGunn#22]

Excellent post Gregg !  This is something I've been advocating but not as clearly as your post laid out.  I've been advocating for acquiring TWO SP's.  These would essentially replace Gray and Maeda and allow Varland a year in the bullpen.  I'm not giving up on Varland as a SP.  I'm just going all in on a dominant bullpen in 2024 with him and a couple more arms contributing.

You have thrown out some names that could help.  Let me throw some out and offer my reasoning.

1.  Yamamoto--He's the obvious choice.  He will be a better pitcher in 2024 than Sonny Gray.  He's also going to cost over $200 million and the Twins will simply be outbid by a bunch of deep pocketed teams who desperately want him.  It's fun to dream of seeing him in a Twins uniform, but it's a pipe dream.

So on to more realistic "dreaming."  

2.  Frankie Montas--Mike Sixel suggested him a day or so ago and I think it's a really good idea.  Mike thinks the Twins could get him for about $12 million per season for 3 years.  That would fit perfectly in our limited budget for the near future, and Montas has great stuff.  Presumably he's healthy and if you're looking for a guy to be a #2 or #3 he's got the potential to be it.  Lucas Giolito is the consolation prize, but he may be slightly more expensive and isn't quite as talented as Montas.  But he eats innings and strikes guys out.  Not bad as a #3 or #4.

3.  Corbin Burnes--He's a former Cy Young Award winner and at 29 years old, is just one year older than Joe Ryan. Burnes started 32 games last year and threw 194 innings.  He won 10 games and struck out 200.  His ERA was 3.39 and WHIP was 1.07.  Gray's WHIP was 1.15 and Burnes had better numbers in each pitching category than Gray except ERA.  He wouldn't just replace Gray, he would exceed Gray in all aspects of pitching in 2024.

I've posted this trade for Burnes:  

Twins Get:  Burnes 32 value and Garrett Mitchell CF 11.3 value.     Total Value:  43.3                                                                  Brewers Get:  Joe Ryan 39.1 value and Miranda 5.1 value.   Total value: 44.2                                                                            The bonus of this trade is that you have a talented 25 year old to play full time CF as well.

That would leave the Twins with a staff of:  Burnes, Lopez, Montas, Ober, Paddock.  That's very likely the best rotation the Twins have ever boasted.  However, because we sold high on Ryan to get a Cy Young candidate in Burnes we still need one more SP for depth unless you are comfortable with SWR, Winder, Festa, Raya, or Balazovic providing that depth. 

Would that be a Ryu type?  It would have to be someone from the bargain bin like a Shoemaker, Happ, Archer type, but this arm would be pitching in St. Paul and only called upon if there was an injury.  Modern era pitchers get owies.  No team goes an entire season without an I.L. stint of two.  Maybe that guy is Dallas Keuchel.  But whoever it is will have to pitch better than the aforementioned minor league guys to earn a stint in the Twins rotation. 

That would be my plan to replace Gray and Maeda in the aggregate.  Because of a legit 5-year window opening up for this Twins team and despite my reduced payroll, I want to make an emphatic statement.  Burnes will cost about $10.5 million in his walk year. 

Once the TV revenue is recouped I'd try to sign him to a 5-year extension to keep him through his age 35 season.  Signing Montas to a 3-4 year contract sets the Twins rotation of Burnes, Lopez, Montas and Ober for several years.  Who knows about Paddock?  Maybe Festa or Raya have supplanted him by then.  Maybe Ober is dealt before he gets too expensive and he's replaced by Varland or Soto.  The Twins, like most major league teams have to make those yearly decisions on who to pay and who to promote.   

[JD-TWINS]

I agree with BigFork Twins - best option is sign Jordan Montgomery!!!

2 years at $21M

next 2 years at $26M

5th year at HIS option for $26M.

We were at $154M budget - theoretically, need to trim because revenue lost isn’t clearly replaced. If we look at the $45M shed with our FA we’re down to $109M ……..add $7M to handle the arbitration increases ………up to $116M plus Montgomery at $21M = $137M …..plus a couple minimum guys from AAA takes us to $139M max……I would trade Polanco as well & we’re at $129M.

If we get Montgomery we’re fine…….we bet on Buxton in CF or Castro in CF or Gordon in CF or Martin in CF…….all within budget.

Lee is coming mid-summer.

CC is healthy & more productive, not necessarily great.

Lewis - Kirilloff - Julien - CC - Wallner - Jeffers - Kepler will have to carry the offense with Castro in CF & Buxton at DH.

Our pitching rotation would be excellent, assuming fair health.

Similar $$ solution is sign Severino from Yankees (big upside) & trade for Devin Williams from Milwaukee & use Varland for rotation depth this year. (trade Miranda - Larnach - Moran)

Could sign Severino & Maeda as well & keep Varland in Pen?

[tony&rodney]

12 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

Burnes will cost about $10.5 million in his walk year. 

Do the Brewers agree with that trade? I like adding Burnes. Perhaps the Twins could substitute Jovani Moran for Jose Miranda as a sweetener. I think Burnes is guessed for $15+M for next year. Many will rue the loss of Ryan.

How does a $125M payroll affect your adding one of Montas, Giolito, or Ryu?

I'm wondering if Miami can be convinced that their team would be improved if they agreed to a trade with the Twins. Would Trevor Larnach, Josh Winder or Cole Sands, and Tanner Schobel be an exchange for Edward Cabrera that the Marlins approve? Cabrera is out of options and has struggled with control but he still has "stuff". All of the guys going to Miami could potentially help the Marlins and have options remaining. The Twins could add Farmer to play his role for Miami.

[old nurse]

18 hours ago, jdgoin said:

What is the OP? 

I thought he was more of a #3 starter throughout his career coming into the 2023 season.  Most of his numbers during his career are more of a 3rd starter (or maybe a 65 if you work on a 20-80 scale rather than a 2-to-8) than an ace. Looking at his season the skills that are more sustainable are plus, not elite. His top 10 production in 2023 was driven by HR suppression more than an increase in any skill.  There is a bigger chance the HRs allowed go back more towards his career average pushing up his ERA, FIP, etc.

I agree with you. He probably gets 3 years and $65 to $75. 

It would seem like most teams would have an analytics department. You point him out to be a number 3 starter while saying he will get top of the second tier of pitching money.  So s it other teams will forego the analytics and hope that he can repeat, or would the guessing numbers be wrong. 

My un analytic take, otherwise known as gut feeling,  is there is a great chance he will take the qualifying offer then retire. He was horrible in New York. He has mentioned about working where he wants to be. A situation like New York is not what he wants to repeat. Signing a large contract somewhere  raises expectations and I don’t think Gray does well in that situation  The part of sports where brain and personality affects performance unfortunately does not have metrics.  

[Jeff K]

19 hours ago, jdgoin said:

I'm not sure the Sonny Gray market is going to be overly robust. While I'm guessing he turns down the QO, I'm not sure about a lengthy deal, high dollar deal. In the end somebody probably gives him fewer years and a high dollar amount. But you have a 34 year old pitcher with a long injury history. He essentially put up the same numbers in 2023 as he has throughout his career. The big difference this past season was fewer HRs and more innings because of health. His other metrics are all very similar to his career numbers. K%, BB%, SwStr%, F-Strike%, etc. do not indicate to me that there is more in the tank. The addition of the cutter certainly helped with RHH but I think you're looking at more of a #3 starter than a top of the rotation guy.

At the risk of sounding like Pollyanna:  I think the Twins have a shot at Gray.  His contract could land in the 3 years totaling 60 to 65 Million.  I know the Twins are reducing salary, but with all the free agents departing they could handle this contract if they look at moving Polanco where we have a surplus of players on the rise.

[PatPfund]

It makes for fun speculation, but baseball doesn't really work like this. Next year's Twins will not be just like this year's, so you are not replacing Gray, you are building a competitive overall roster. It may have more balanced offense, a more consistent and better bullpen, and starting pitching not as deep as this year (or deeper depending on adds or trades of improvements by current staff). Given the payroll setup, I'd expect adds to come in trades from strength (like last year) and late organizational depth adds. That last has worked better for the Twins (Castro, Solano) than for pitching, but I'm willing to give this FO a bit more trust this offseason than after the Bundy/Archer/MattyShoe years. (Though I'd like them to concentrate the off-season on arms, where they have both need and where in-season moves are far more expensive than acquiring position players.)

[strumdatjag]

Remember.  The Twins are NOT replacing the 2023 Sonny Gray but instead it’s the 2024 Sonny Gray.  I have a hard time signing him after a career year as he is aging.  

[Doctor Wu]

On 11/11/2023 at 3:11 AM, Karbo said:

Paddack has the potential to come fairly close to Gray

I agree, Paddack seems like the forgotten arm in this scenario, but I think a healthy and fired-up Paddack might indeed be a better option for the Twins in 2024, as opposed to re-signing Sonny Gray to a multi-year contract that goes sour quickly. 

[Heiny]

Montas and Giolito.  Affordable and respectable ceiling.  This in my opinion would be replacing Gray and Maeda.  But it's all speculation.

 

[TopGunn#22]

tony&rodney, you are CORRECT!  Burnes would be getting about $15.1 million though arbitration in what would be his final year in Milwaukee.  I don't know why I typed $10.5 but that is wrong.

I've thrown out a couple Corbin Burnes trade ideas but you're right to ask "would Milwaukee go for that?"  I'd noodle it around and actually overpay a bit if I had to.  According to BBTV, a straight up swap of Burnes for Ryan would be an overpay by about 7 points.  The controllable cost for Ryan being the main driver.  On talent alone, Burnes would be a huge upgrade for the twins staff.  I'd love to make a deal with Milwaukee, especially if it also brought back Garrett Mitchell.  We'd have a 25 year old CF as well as a former Cy Young winner pitching in his age 29 season.

However, it's already being floated that the Yankees and Dodgers are sniffing around Burnes.  I think any trade to acquire Burnes will have to be somewhat of an overpay.  I think a young, controllable pitcher like Ryan is the clincher for the Twins.  The Yankees and Dodgers don't have a comparable "Ryan" that they could trade.  But there will be interest from multiple teams for Burnes.

I love the idea of Burnes at $15 million and Montas at $12-$13 million being added to the Twins rotation.  And like Heiny, if not Montas, Giolito is a workhorse who could turn things around in Minnesota.  I like Montas better, but would still be happy with a Burnes/Giolito pairing as well.

 

[Heiny]

10 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

tony&rodney, you are CORRECT!  Burnes would be getting about $15.1 million though arbitration in what would be his final year in Milwaukee.  I don't know why I typed $10.5 but that is wrong.

I've thrown out a couple Corbin Burnes trade ideas but you're right to ask "would Milwaukee go for that?"  I'd noodle it around and actually overpay a bit if I had to.  According to BBTV, a straight up swap of Burnes for Ryan would be an overpay by about 7 points.  The controllable cost for Ryan being the main driver.  On talent alone, Burnes would be a huge upgrade for the twins staff.  I'd love to make a deal with Milwaukee, especially if it also brought back Garrett Mitchell.  We'd have a 25 year old CF as well as a former Cy Young winner pitching in his age 29 season.

However, it's already being floated that the Yankees and Dodgers are sniffing around Burnes.  I think any trade to acquire Burnes will have to be somewhat of an overpay.  I think a young, controllable pitcher like Ryan is the clincher for the Twins.  The Yankees and Dodgers don't have a comparable "Ryan" that they could trade.  But there will be interest from multiple teams for Burnes.

I love the idea of Burnes at $15 million and Montas at $12-$13 million being added to the Twins rotation.  And like Heiny, if not Montas, Giolito is a workhorse who could turn things around in Minnesota.  I like Montas better, but would still be happy with a Burnes/Giolito pairing as well.

 

I'd love to get Burnes, but I'd hate to give up on Ryan.  Is there something else we could offer?  Ryans years of control is a huge factor for me.

[TopGunn#22]

Realistically, I don't think we can get Burnes unless Ryan is included in the deal.  Minus Ryan, it would take Brooks Lee or Walker Jenkins, or Julien to get in the conversation.  At that point, I think the Yanks or Dodgers or whoever, elbows us out of the way.  But remember, Ryan is only one year younger than Burnes. 

The reason Burnes could be a Twin this coming year MUST be because we'd be willing to sign him for the next 5 years.  Otherwise, I don't want to give up on Ryan either for just a one-year rental, even though Burnes and Lopez at the top of our rotation could lead to a World Series title in 2024.