How Could a Jhoan Duran Extension Take Shape?

[Seth Stohs]

How fun was watching the Twins bullpen late in the season and the playoffs? Rocco Baldelli and Pete Maki could turn to power arm after power arm. But there isn’t a more powerful arm in baseball than the right arm of Jhoan Duran’s. Might the Twins be wise to lock him up on a long-term contract extension?

Image courtesy of Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

When contemplating a long-term, life-altering extension with a ballplayer, many factors must come into play. We will discuss a few of them below before jumping into my thoughts on what such a contract might look like for Jhoan Duran. You can also watch the short video that @Nash Walker put together with his ideas about a Duran extension. 

Background
Jhoan Duran has two full seasons in the big leagues and has been remarkably dominant in both seasons. What’s even more remarkable is what he is doing when you consider what he went through in the seasons leading up to his 2022 debut. 

Duran came to the Twins organization in a July 2018 trade deadline deal that sent infielder Eduardo Escobar to the Diamondbacks. Just days after the trade, he joined the Low-A Cedar Rapids Kernels. The right-hander struck out eight batters in seven scoreless, no-hit innings in his first start. He had another start with nine strikeouts in seven innings of one-run ball. He followed that start with 10 strikeouts in 6 2/3 innings of one-hit ball and gave up only an unearned run. While few Twins fans had heard the name Jhoan Duran before the trade, he made a solid first impression in the organization. 

He began the 2019 season with High-A Fort Myers. He made 15 starts and one relief appearance. While he went 2-9, he posted just a 3.23 ERA over 78 innings. He had 95 strikeouts as well. He ended the season going 3-3 over seven starts with Double-A Pensacola. Following the season, the Twins added him to the 40-man roster. 

Injury Risk 
Unfortunately, he did not pitch in games in 2020 due to the cancellation of the minor league season because of Covid. 

He was having elbow and forearm pain during the spring of 2021. His debut with the St. Paul Saints featured six strikeouts in three innings in late May. He followed that with eight strikeouts in four one-hit, scoreless innings. He was hitting triple digits with regularity at CHS Field. 

When the calendar turned to June, he started to struggle. Three runs on three hits and five walks over four innings. Three runs on six hits and two walks in 4 1/3 innings. And then, on June 15th, he recorded just two outs and gave up two runs on two hits and three walks. He was immediately shut down and spent the rest of the season rehabbing. He never did have elbow surgery. 

In 2022, he went to spring training with many questions surrounding him. But he pitched very well in his outings, dominating enough to make the Opening Day roster. As you would expect, the Twins were very patient with Duran. He didn’t pitch in back-to-back games. If he pitched two innings, he would get two days off, at least. And as the season went on, it was increasingly clear that he was the team’s best bullpen arm. It didn’t take long for him to start working in high-leverage situations. 

In 2023, the 25-year-old should have been an All-Star but didn’t get selected inexplicably. His ERA was slightly higher (2.45 after 1.86), and his WHIP jumped from 0.98 to 1.14 this year. His strikeout rate rose a little, from 11.8 K/9 to 12.1 K/9. However, his walk rate jumped from 2.1 BB/9 to 3.6 BB/9. That was the issue at times, yet he continued to be one of the most dominant relievers in the game. His fWAR as a rookie was 1.5. In 2023, he was at 1.0 fWAR.

Research suggests that higher velocity could play a role in pitcher injuries, and Duran certainly does not lack that. He throws a 104 mph four-seamer, a splinker at 98-to-100 mph, and one might argue that his best pitch is his incredibly sharp upper-80s curveball. His arsenal will be a concern for opposing hitters and potentially doctors who work on arms. 

Watch Nash's video
Before you continue, take two minutes and watch Nash’s video on a Duran contract extension so you can compare it to what I show below. 

 

 

Jhoan Duran has exactly 2.000 years of service time. Assuming he doesn’t ever use his final option, he will be arbitration-eligible for the first time following the 2024 season. If he goes year-to-year, Duran will have three years of arbitration before becoming a free agent following the 2027 season. In other words, the Twins already have his rights for the next four seasons, and he will be a free agent heading into his age-30 season. 

Renewed
In my mind, this is a topic that hasn’t been addressed. And truthfully, I don’t know if it is a big deal. 

With the most recent Collective Bargaining Agreement, the minimum salary went from $700,000 in 2022 to $720,000 in 2023. In 2024, it will be $740,000. 

For pre-arbitration players, they typically get small bumps in pay each season. For example, Ronny Henriquez had 18 days of service time in 2022. According to Cot’s Contracts, he would have made $720,900 had he spent the entire 2023 season in the big leagues. With 73 days of service time coming into the season, Josh Winder would have made $725,650 in 2023. 

Jhoan Duran had precisely one year of service time coming into 2023. Two players were reasonably close to that timeline. 

Jose Miranda entered 2023 with 157 days of service time (180 days equals one year). He was set to make $727,850. Joe Ryan entered 2023 with 1.033 years (one year, 33 days) of service time. In 2023, he made $730,250. Considering those two numbers, it’s fair to suggest that Duran should have made around $729,000 in 2023. 

However, if unable to reach an agreement on a 2023 contract, teams can “renew” a contract at the previous year’s value. That happened with Duran, as his salary bumped from the 2022 league minimum of $700,000 to the 2023 league minimum of $720,000. 

So what? He should have made $9,000 more than he did this year. Who cares? Right? 

Does that mean the two sides disagreed over what couldn’t have been more than a couple thousand dollars? Does it mean they were working on a long-term deal last offseason, and it didn’t happen? Does it mean things were contentious between Duran and his representatives and the Twins brass? Probably not. With MLB allocating $50 million for pre-arbitration players, Duran should have made well over $9,000 of that chunk. 

It's probably much ado about nothing, but it could be something to watch later in the offseason. 

Contract Details 
The Twins would want to extend a player to save money down the road and buy out some years of free agency. 

A player might be willing to give up some long-term dollars to get the guaranteed money in case of injury or lack of sustained production. 

As Nash mentioned in his video, the most similar extension might be the five-year, $20 million extension that Emmanuel Clase reached with the Guardians a couple of years ago. It comes with a couple of option years as well. Along with throwing hard, Clase already has an 80-game PED suspension, which likely creates some risk. 

Josh Hader has gone year-to-year in arbitration. He had four years of arbitration and earned $4.1 million in 2020, $6.675 million in 2021, $11 million in 2022, and this season, he pitched for $14.1 million. He will become a free agent in a couple of weeks, and it will be interesting to see what kind of deal he gets.

So, here is my proposal:

In summary, this contract would cover five years, and $33 million would be guaranteed. It also includes two option years. It includes a $1.5 million signing bonus. The $2.5 million in 2024 is over three times more than he would make on a one-year, pre-arbitration contract. 

This contract would buy out his final pre-arbitration season, three years of arbitration, and one free-agent season. And, as you can see, it includes up to two more free-agent seasons and could be worth up to seven years and $56 million. 

So, what do you think? Is this a contract you would feel comfortable with the Twins and Duran agreeing to? What would be your biggest concerns about the deal? How do you feel about extending a reliever with some elbow issues in his past? Leave your thoughts below. 

For much more Twins Daily content on Jhoan Duran, click here. 

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[tarheeltwinsfan]

If I were the Twins, I would absolutely do something substantial to reward Duran. Seth's proposal looks to be well thought out and would be a guaranteed, life changing contract for Duran, no matter what, and reasonable for the Twins, considering the potential risks. Nice job Seth. 

[tony&rodney]

Duran is always going to be one pitch away from an elbow or shoulder injury, which is concerning for him and the Twins. Relief pitchers are getting paid handsomely and it might take another handful of millions to get ink from Duran. A $5 million signing bonus might be one way to keep the yearly salaries in the range you suggest. Relievers are risky but Duran is a good one. Move the guarantee to $40 million and I believe it can be done. Whether this is a good idea or not is up to Falvey. The fans mostly say yes to using someone else's money. Duran at the back end of games is a big deal though. Do it.

[arby58]

I don't think this contract would be enough money to induce Duran to sign a long-term deal. You're probably needing to get closer to the recent arbitration awards for Hader, otherwise you aren't looking at it from a current dollars perspective.

[terrydactyls]

Biggest concern?  Easy.  He blows out his elbow/shoulder and never pitches again.

What should the contract look like?  Professional athletes all appear to want to be the highest paid at their position.  So top Hadar's contract by a couple million (chump change) and hope he stays healthy.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

Lots of love for Duran, but if I were the Twins, I would wait.

So many things can go wrong.  Duran has been really good, but not elite. The injury risk and volatility of relievers is real.

If you are looking to buy out a year or two of FA, that would put him him in his early 30's at the end of the contract.  Hard throwers tend to flame out younger (pardon the pun), meaning Duran's jump into FA at that time might not be great.

Lot's of risk for both sides, but I think the Twins can wait a year or two without losing too much financial advantage. 

[chpettit19]

If I'm the Twins and he'll take that deal I'll sign it today.

If I'm Duran, though, I'm not signing that deal. I'll take my chances in arbitration and hit the market a year old than Diaz did last year.

Through his arbitration years the Twins would be saving about $1 million (compared to Hader's first 3 arb years) while locking in cost certainty, and spreading out the costs. Seems reasonable on both sides. But the 3 free agency years the Twins are saving about $25 million (compared to Diaz's deal) while also getting club options (I assume Seth is doing club options like Nash and the Clase extension). That's a hard no from me if I'm Duran. I'd take my chances in arbitration and hit the market after 2027 and sign a $100 million deal.

Duran likely has 1 shot at a huge deal, and, if I were him, I'm not signing away that chance for the deal presented here. He'd be leaving way too much money on the table. A lost season between now and free agency costs him a few mil in arbitration. Signing away his age 30-33 seasons costs him 100 mil (he's far less likely to get a Diaz type contract at age 34 than age 30). Costs aren't going to start coming down. Hader may reset the market again this winter. By the time Duran hits free agency he may be looking at 25+ mil a year in salary possibilities. I wouldn't give up that chance if I were him. But I'm not the one with this hypothetical $56 million in front of me.

 

[Whitey333]

Great article Seth.  Well thought out contract proposal.  I wouldn't extend him to more than 2-3 years though.  His past injury issues and the fact he throws so hard is concerning.  He is Tommy John surgery just waiting to happen.i just think 5 years is too long at this point. He is an excellent late inning man but IMO hasn't proven himself elite yet.  The Twins have him at a cheap salary now.  Keep it there at the cheap for now.

[Brandon]

I’m thinking the 5 year should be in the 38-42 million range.  The options could be higher in the 18-20 million range.  Maybe give him a player option of 10 million in case he is coming back from injury.  That gives him security in case of injury and either the Twins exercise the higher amount if healthy or he becomes a free agent.  That player option may allow the Twins to sign him closer to 38 million or even a little less as he is guaranteed another 10 million if he has TJ surgery or anything else happens to keep him off the mound.  Or he gets his options picked up and he makes more…
 

As good as he is, I doubt the Twins keep him beyond a 10 million salary.  He will likely get traded.  Right now Theilbar is the only bullpen member expected to make anything over a million and the Twins are good at putting a bullpen together on the cheap so once he reaches a certain cost expect him to be gone.  
But now is also a good time to appreciate the trade that brought him here.  Escobar on an expiring contract.  

[PDX Twin]

In thinking about this, I found myself wondering how much of a premium we would be paying just for an extra MPH or two. Suppose that a pitcher had Duran's record with a 98 MPH fastball. Would we be thinking about these numbers? I'm not into paying for extra MPH unless it is reflected in extra outs. And I do worry a lot about the injury threat of that kind of wear on the arm.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

I think the contract looks amazing from the Twins side of things.  I'm just not convinced that he would take it.  I'm guessing it might take some up front money in a signing bonus plus bigger numbers on the option years.  While you can never predict potential injury, he's been able to go very well since he's been in the bullpen.  He's also been as good as anyone in the league for two years, so the value is certainly there. 

[NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin]

There is probably a close to zero percent chance that Duran signs this. Ten years ago, Craig Kimbrel signed a 5yr/$54M heading into his first arbitration season. Kimbrel was younger (and probably better), but the top end of the market in 2013/14 was ~$25M APY, whereas today it is ~$40M APY. Duran just saw Edwin Diaz get 5yr/$100M, and Josh Hader will get something similar- I doubt he will sign a contract that increases the time before he gets a free-agent deal.

[Jeff K]

2 hours ago, arby58 said:

I don't think this contract would be enough money to induce Duran to sign a long-term deal. You're probably needing to get closer to the recent arbitration awards for Hader, otherwise you aren't looking at it from a current dollars perspective.

I am not so sure.  This guy isn't going to get what he is worth until he is 30 and that is a long time for a flame thrower.

[Vanimal46]

2 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

So many things can go wrong.  Duran has been really good, but not elite. The injury risk and volatility of relievers is real.

This is exactly why I’m against extending relievers. Even very good relievers like Duran. There’s a chance he’s one of the few relievers who never get hurt or have a down season, but odds are very low that’s the case. 

[Karbo]

I think I'd wait at least 1 more year and see what happens. If I was Duran I wouldn't sign that contract anyway. It will take either more bonus money up front or higher salaries in the last few years.

[IaBeanCounter]

I like the proposed contract as it allows the Twins to lock in Duran for up to 3 years of FA and it gives Duran guaranteed money if he were to blow out his arm.  I am getting old, but I remember Liriano having a much more violent delivery which ultimately required surgery.   Duran's delivery seems much more controlled and smooth.  Hopefully that will put less stress on his arm. 

[Seth Stohs]

3 hours ago, arby58 said:

I don't think this contract would be enough money to induce Duran to sign a long-term deal. You're probably needing to get closer to the recent arbitration awards for Hader, otherwise you aren't looking at it from a current dollars perspective.

And if that's the case... there's no reason for the Twins to do it. Then they might as well go year to year and avoid the risk... Of course then Duran takes the risk of getting hurt and never reaching those Hader dollars. 

[Seth Stohs]

3 hours ago, terrydactyls said:

Biggest concern?  Easy.  He blows out his elbow/shoulder and never pitches again.

What should the contract look like?  Professional athletes all appear to want to be the highest paid at their position.  So top Hadar's contract by a couple million (chump change) and hope he stays healthy.

Hader never had a long-term contract. He went year-to-year, so there isn't anything similar to compare it to. 

[terrydactyls]

49 minutes ago, Seth Stohs said:

Hader never had a long-term contract. He went year-to-year, so there isn't anything similar to compare it to. 

Sorry.  I misread the comment about Hader in your article.  But the thought stays.  Pay him a little more than the current highest extension for a pre-arb relief pitcher.

[Brandon]

What about front loading the contract say 5, 6, 7, 8, 11 million over 5 years totaling 37 million and each option year starts at 15 million with escalators to 18-20 million with 3 million buyout.  

[chpettit19]

3 hours ago, Seth Stohs said:

And if that's the case... there's no reason for the Twins to do it. Then they might as well go year to year and avoid the risk... Of course then Duran takes the risk of getting hurt and never reaching those Hader dollars. 

That's the challenge in a guy becoming a multi-season star before trying to extend, right? Duran is on pace to make 120 mil when he hits free agency (inflation) on top of his arb numbers. It gets harder and harder to find a middle ground in talking long-term, early extension once a guy becomes one of the best in the game. Hard to convince a guy to sign for less than half of what he'd make betting on himself. Especially because injury risks aren't what they used to be. Injury during his arb years cost him a few mil, but he still gets his 100 mil pay day in free agency. Edwin Diaz went from fans wanting him cut after his first year in NY to getting 20 mil a year. 1 bad, or missed, year just doesn't hurt you that much when you're considered elite.

[Mike h]

I wonder if Duran still wants to be a starter again.  If he does, and the Twins aren't open to that, then he won't want to sign a long term contract.  (And I wouldn't blame the Twins because throwing 80+ pitches at 100+ mph seems like a sure way to blow out an elbow or something.)

On the other hand, Johan Santana came out of the bullpen to start, and guys like Nolan Ryan and Randy Johnson had pretty long careers even though they threw hard.

Who knows? Make an offer. Let him reject it.  Make another offer. Negotiate. There's probably a number that both sides can live with, and to me, really, it doesn't matter what it is. It's not my money.   Baseball owners are billionaires. They can choose to pinch their pennies. I just want to see them field a winner.

[jmlease1]

7 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Lots of love for Duran, but if I were the Twins, I would wait.

So many things can go wrong.  Duran has been really good, but not elite. The injury risk and volatility of relievers is real.

If you are looking to buy out a year or two of FA, that would put him him in his early 30's at the end of the contract.  Hard throwers tend to flame out younger (pardon the pun), meaning Duran's jump into FA at that time might not be great.

Lot's of risk for both sides, but I think the Twins can wait a year or two without losing too much financial advantage. 

What else does he have to do to show he's elite? His stuff is filthy, he's really hard to hit, he keeps the ball in the ballpark, he racks up Ks with ease...he's an absolute monster out there, as good as anyone in the league.

[Linus]

They’re people posting that Duran is not elite. If he isn’t what is the definition of elite?

[Unwinder]

1 minute ago, Linus said:

They’re people posting that Duran is not elite. If he isn’t what is the definition of elite?

It's used on here as a synonym for "unattainable." 

[DJL44]

8 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Duran likely has 1 shot at a huge deal, and, if I were him, I'm not signing away that chance for the deal presented here. He'd be leaving way too much money on the table. A lost season between now and free agency costs him a few mil in arbitration. Signing away his age 30-33 seasons costs him 100 mil (he's far less likely to get a Diaz type contract at age 34 than age 30). Costs aren't going to start coming down. Hader may reset the market again this winter. By the time Duran hits free agency he may be looking at 25+ mil a year in salary possibilities. I wouldn't give up that chance if I were him. But I'm not the one with this hypothetical $56 million in front of me.

I'm not convinced I'd want to buy out more than one free agent season anyway. Lock him up until age 30, get the discount over those years by guaranteeing the money now (5 years $33M). When he's about to turn 31 and looking for a big free agent deal give him the qualifying offer and take the draft pick.

[chpettit19]

8 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

I'm not convinced I'd want to buy out more than one free agent season anyway. Lock him up until age 30, get the discount over those years by guaranteeing the money now (5 years $33M). When he's about to turn 31 and looking for a big free agent deal give him the qualifying offer and take the draft pick.

How come? I get it for the average reliever for sure. I'd go year to year with almost all of them. But the elite guys tend to stay pretty darn good for a long time. Chapman is 35 and still blowing smoke by people. Craig Kimbrel is 35 and doing his thing still/again. I'd lock Duran up through age 33 if I could. I just think it's going to take more than Seth suggested to get it done. He may have a down year or 2, but replacing someone like him, even at 31, is hard to do. I don't think it's crazy to be worried about relievers long-term, but I think the elite guys are worth locking up if you can.

[Bodie]

1 hour ago, Linus said:

They’re people posting that Duran is not elite. If he isn’t what is the definition of elite?

Joe Nathan.  He was elite. Until he wasn't, and then he was not even close.

All you need to get a shadow of a doubt about Duran being "elite" are his results over the last 6-8 weeks of this season.  Walks went up, everyone seemed to get more confident facing him and the hits and runs piled up.  He had a stretch where I had less confidence seeing him making an appearance than most of the bullpen.   Being a Twins fan, I assumed the worst (something requiring TJ surgery, and as he is a Twin not named Maeda a double length recovery!) and prayed for the best ("dead arm" or something similar that a long week of week of DL time hoisting longnecks would take care of).

That said, he has (seemingly anyway) both the physical and mental makeup to take that next step to "elite".

Unfortunately for the Twins, he has that star quality to makes him a national star.  As long as he is regularly hitting 103mph (!!!) the Twins will always be bidding against several teams that will overpay just for the WOW factor that he will likely have for many years to come.  I realize the Twins have the arbitration years where they won't be in direct competition for the next year's service, but even the most grounded and down-to-earth players have an agent (who gets a % off the top), and Duran's will be whispering sweet nothings in his ear about a 9 digit contract!

With all that said, if Duran would sign the hypothetical contract mentioned in the article, you do it every day of the week.  And twice on Sunday!!!

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

How come? I get it for the average reliever for sure. I'd go year to year with almost all of them. But the elite guys tend to stay pretty darn good for a long time. Chapman is 35 and still blowing smoke by people. Craig Kimbrel is 35 and doing his thing still/again. I'd lock Duran up through age 33 if I could. I just think it's going to take more than Seth suggested to get it done. He may have a down year or 2, but replacing someone like him, even at 31, is hard to do. I don't think it's crazy to be worried about relievers long-term, but I think the elite guys are worth locking up if you can.

Too much downside and not enough upside. Best case scenario all you get is a really expensive reliever. Spend the money on the rotation and find someone new for the bullpen. I'd trade an expensive reliever for a first round draft pick whenever I had the opportunity.

[chpettit19]

7 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Too much downside and not enough upside. Best case scenario all you get is a really expensive reliever. Spend the money on the rotation and find someone new for the bullpen. I'd trade an expensive reliever for a first round draft pick whenever I had the opportunity.

I'd have agreed with you 10 years ago, but in this day of 5 or 6 inning starts you need relievers. Lots of relievers. We've seen the misery of having less than stellar relievers. I think "all you get is a really expensive reliever" is selling elite closers short. I just think there's something to be said for knowing the 9th inning with a lead means game over.