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When contemplating a long-term, life-altering extension with a ballplayer, many factors must come into play. We will discuss a few of them below before jumping into my thoughts on what such a contract might look like for Jhoan Duran. You can also watch the short video that @Nash Walker put together with his ideas about a Duran extension.
Background
Jhoan Duran has two full seasons in the big leagues and has been remarkably dominant in both seasons. What’s even more remarkable is what he is doing when you consider what he went through in the seasons leading up to his 2022 debut.
Duran came to the Twins organization in a July 2018 trade deadline deal that sent infielder Eduardo Escobar to the Diamondbacks. Just days after the trade, he joined the Low-A Cedar Rapids Kernels. The right-hander struck out eight batters in seven scoreless, no-hit innings in his first start. He had another start with nine strikeouts in seven innings of one-run ball. He followed that start with 10 strikeouts in 6 2/3 innings of one-hit ball and gave up only an unearned run. While few Twins fans had heard the name Jhoan Duran before the trade, he made a solid first impression in the organization.
He began the 2019 season with High-A Fort Myers. He made 15 starts and one relief appearance. While he went 2-9, he posted just a 3.23 ERA over 78 innings. He had 95 strikeouts as well. He ended the season going 3-3 over seven starts with Double-A Pensacola. Following the season, the Twins added him to the 40-man roster.
Injury Risk
Unfortunately, he did not pitch in games in 2020 due to the cancellation of the minor league season because of Covid.
He was having elbow and forearm pain during the spring of 2021. His debut with the St. Paul Saints featured six strikeouts in three innings in late May. He followed that with eight strikeouts in four one-hit, scoreless innings. He was hitting triple digits with regularity at CHS Field.
When the calendar turned to June, he started to struggle. Three runs on three hits and five walks over four innings. Three runs on six hits and two walks in 4 1/3 innings. And then, on June 15th, he recorded just two outs and gave up two runs on two hits and three walks. He was immediately shut down and spent the rest of the season rehabbing. He never did have elbow surgery.
In 2022, he went to spring training with many questions surrounding him. But he pitched very well in his outings, dominating enough to make the Opening Day roster. As you would expect, the Twins were very patient with Duran. He didn’t pitch in back-to-back games. If he pitched two innings, he would get two days off, at least. And as the season went on, it was increasingly clear that he was the team’s best bullpen arm. It didn’t take long for him to start working in high-leverage situations.
In 2023, the 25-year-old should have been an All-Star but didn’t get selected inexplicably. His ERA was slightly higher (2.45 after 1.86), and his WHIP jumped from 0.98 to 1.14 this year. His strikeout rate rose a little, from 11.8 K/9 to 12.1 K/9. However, his walk rate jumped from 2.1 BB/9 to 3.6 BB/9. That was the issue at times, yet he continued to be one of the most dominant relievers in the game. His fWAR as a rookie was 1.5. In 2023, he was at 1.0 fWAR.
Research suggests that higher velocity could play a role in pitcher injuries, and Duran certainly does not lack that. He throws a 104 mph four-seamer, a splinker at 98-to-100 mph, and one might argue that his best pitch is his incredibly sharp upper-80s curveball. His arsenal will be a concern for opposing hitters and potentially doctors who work on arms.
Watch Nash's video
Before you continue, take two minutes and watch Nash’s video on a Duran contract extension so you can compare it to what I show below.
Jhoan Duran has exactly 2.000 years of service time. Assuming he doesn’t ever use his final option, he will be arbitration-eligible for the first time following the 2024 season. If he goes year-to-year, Duran will have three years of arbitration before becoming a free agent following the 2027 season. In other words, the Twins already have his rights for the next four seasons, and he will be a free agent heading into his age-30 season.
Renewed
In my mind, this is a topic that hasn’t been addressed. And truthfully, I don’t know if it is a big deal.
With the most recent Collective Bargaining Agreement, the minimum salary went from $700,000 in 2022 to $720,000 in 2023. In 2024, it will be $740,000.
For pre-arbitration players, they typically get small bumps in pay each season. For example, Ronny Henriquez had 18 days of service time in 2022. According to Cot’s Contracts, he would have made $720,900 had he spent the entire 2023 season in the big leagues. With 73 days of service time coming into the season, Josh Winder would have made $725,650 in 2023.
Jhoan Duran had precisely one year of service time coming into 2023. Two players were reasonably close to that timeline.
Jose Miranda entered 2023 with 157 days of service time (180 days equals one year). He was set to make $727,850. Joe Ryan entered 2023 with 1.033 years (one year, 33 days) of service time. In 2023, he made $730,250. Considering those two numbers, it’s fair to suggest that Duran should have made around $729,000 in 2023.
However, if unable to reach an agreement on a 2023 contract, teams can “renew” a contract at the previous year’s value. That happened with Duran, as his salary bumped from the 2022 league minimum of $700,000 to the 2023 league minimum of $720,000.
So what? He should have made $9,000 more than he did this year. Who cares? Right?
Does that mean the two sides disagreed over what couldn’t have been more than a couple thousand dollars? Does it mean they were working on a long-term deal last offseason, and it didn’t happen? Does it mean things were contentious between Duran and his representatives and the Twins brass? Probably not. With MLB allocating $50 million for pre-arbitration players, Duran should have made well over $9,000 of that chunk.
It's probably much ado about nothing, but it could be something to watch later in the offseason.
Contract Details
The Twins would want to extend a player to save money down the road and buy out some years of free agency.
A player might be willing to give up some long-term dollars to get the guaranteed money in case of injury or lack of sustained production.
As Nash mentioned in his video, the most similar extension might be the five-year, $20 million extension that Emmanuel Clase reached with the Guardians a couple of years ago. It comes with a couple of option years as well. Along with throwing hard, Clase already has an 80-game PED suspension, which likely creates some risk.
Josh Hader has gone year-to-year in arbitration. He had four years of arbitration and earned $4.1 million in 2020, $6.675 million in 2021, $11 million in 2022, and this season, he pitched for $14.1 million. He will become a free agent in a couple of weeks, and it will be interesting to see what kind of deal he gets.
So, here is my proposal:
In summary, this contract would cover five years, and $33 million would be guaranteed. It also includes two option years. It includes a $1.5 million signing bonus. The $2.5 million in 2024 is over three times more than he would make on a one-year, pre-arbitration contract.
This contract would buy out his final pre-arbitration season, three years of arbitration, and one free-agent season. And, as you can see, it includes up to two more free-agent seasons and could be worth up to seven years and $56 million.
So, what do you think? Is this a contract you would feel comfortable with the Twins and Duran agreeing to? What would be your biggest concerns about the deal? How do you feel about extending a reliever with some elbow issues in his past? Leave your thoughts below.
For much more Twins Daily content on Jhoan Duran, click here.
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