Should Twins Continue to Trade for a Starter

[Twinsoholic]

One key reason the Twins are stronger than in previous years is the development of youngee players now on the major league roster. Another reason is trading talent for starting pitchers. Gray and Lopez worked out. Paddock might work out. Mahle did not, and Maeda worked out for one season. With Gray and Maeda likely leaving now, should the Twins look to follow their recent approach of trading for a number 2 (or number 1) starter with team control for at least 2 seasons? While some may not like this approach, I do like it (particularly given the team’s inability to develop a crop of effective starting pitching). While Varland might be an option, he might also be best kept in the pen. 
 

if the Twins were to find a team willing to trade a Pablo Lopez type of starter with 2 years of team control, what might it cost the Twins?

 

[terrydactyls]

While the Twins should always be open to trade, I think now is time to NOT use this as a primary method for building a rotation.  Returning in 2024 are Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Paddock, and Varland.  There is a possibility of resigning Gray and/or Maeta.  Tyler Mahli will be a free agent, but what's his market coming off Tommy John surgery?  The Twins could make him an offer of two years for $5M total and probably get him to sign.  He had the surgery in May and it wasn't a full-blown tommy john surgery so he may be back by June.  (That is my non-medical opinion,)  In the wings are SWR and Festa.  That's a possible ten starters to choose from.  I think they need to speed their energy, time, and money on finding someone that can put the ball in play.

[FlyingFinn]

I wouldn't mind a reasonable offer to sign Maeda. He's got some good games in him for the regular season as the 5 starters listed by @terrydactyls will be injured at some time during the season and I want Festa and company to have more time at AAA.

This is Gray's chance for one last payday (or retire to be with family) so I see him getting $60 million for 3 years.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

If a pitcher comes up that you think you can turn into an elite pitcher yes I would consider it but the staff is looking very strong.  You have your #1 in Lopez locked up for 4 years.   The Twins have a decision to make as to who the #2 is.  Paddack looked very good at the end of the season.  I have a feeling he will step into the #2 spot.  Then with Ryan, Ober, Varland you have a top 5.  Now I do think they need to get another pitcher.  Whether that is resigning Gray who could step in as your #2 or #3 or going for a pitcher they think they can fix.  Personally I think they  let Gray go.  If you could get Eduardo Rodriguez as a decent contract I would consider it,  but in general they look for value contracts on trades,  which brings us back to a possibly trade option.  Right now OF and 1st base and RP are primary areas I would be looking at upgrading and then retooling the depth players.  I think this offseason will be wide open for the front office.  

[nicksaviking]

Yes, trade or sign a Sonny Gray replacement. I like the internal options, but I did last year too, and overstuffing the rotation was easily the best thing the front office did all year.

[USAFChief]

Sign Blake Snell AND trade for a starter. 

 

[nicksaviking]

2 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Sign Blake Snell AND trade for a starter. 

 

We have different tastes in free agent starters, but we walk the same path. 

Double down on the starters.

Edit: To clarify, I'd like Snell, but I'm not sure if his high walk rate fits in with how the pitching staff currently operates.

[DJL44]

42 minutes ago, FlyingFinn said:

This is Gray's chance for one last payday (or retire to be with family) so I see him getting $60 million for 3 years.

The Twins should be willing to go 3 years $75M for Gray. He just put up a season worth $45M. Ultimately, I think someone gives him $100M. The Cardinals have already signaled their interest.

I think trading for a starter has some merit, especially if they can trade offense for pitching. I would be interested in seeing what it would cost to get Cease from the White Sox. The Brewers might also be ready to sell pitching.

[Linus]

I would explore all avenues. My concern is that the free agent class for starters is thin so a trade might be your best bet. Here is one thing I know for sure: I am not counting on SWR Festa Balazovic and the other half dozen name’s constantly thrown out for anything. 

[clone52]

3 hours ago, Twinsoholic said:

One key reason the Twins are stronger than in previous years is the development of youngee players now on the major league roster. Another reason is trading talent for starting pitchers. Gray and Lopez worked out. Paddock might work out. Mahle did not, and Maeda worked out for one season. With Gray and Maeda likely leaving now, should the Twins look to follow their recent approach of trading for a number 2 (or number 1) starter with team control for at least 2 seasons? While some may not like this approach, I do like it (particularly given the team’s inability to develop a crop of effective starting pitching). While Varland might be an option, he might also be best kept in the pen. 
 

if the Twins were to find a team willing to trade a Pablo Lopez type of starter with 2 years of team control, what might it cost the Twins?

 

Its a really interesting idea.  I will say, I'd treat Maeda as more than a one season wonder.  He was a quality starter this year as well, especially for the cost.

I wonder if the Twins would consider signing Gray long term.  Probably not at the cost he'd probably command, but if he likes Minnesota, would he take a 3/65M deal?  Something shorter than he'd maybe get on the open market?

My guess is they end up signing one older guy to a 1 or 2 year deal.  Someone like Kyle Hendricks or Carlos Carrasco.

The trade is an interesting idea, though.  Over the next few years, they've got some high end prospects that will be Rule V eligible and there might not be enough roster room for all of them.  I think they may have 4 C's Rule V eligible that had pretty good offensive years.  When you look at the list of Twins players, you're pretty set at at a lot of positions.  Jeffers, Correa, Kiriloff, Julien, Lewis, Wallner are going to be regulars going forward.  Next year you also have Kepler and Polanco, but maybe gone after that.  You've got Castro for a couple more years for sure, Farmer next year.  In the minors, you've got guys ready for their big league shot.  Brooks Lee, Austin Martin, DaShawn Kiersey, Yunior Severino.  I think they don't resign Taylor and use Lee, Martin or Kiersey in CF.  Severino would likely wind up at 1B, but played mostly 2B and 3B this year, so its possible he could play 2B.  Further down the line you've got prospects like Emmanuel Rodriguez, Tanner Schobel, Jose Salas, Kalai'i Rosario who could have nice trade value and you could trade without hurting depth that much.  Or last year's draftees like Luke Kueschall and Brandon Winokour.

With that kind of depth in the minors and few major holes to fill at the major league level, it probably makes sense to see what you could get.

In 2025, you could easily see this as your roster and feel pretty good.

C: Jeffers, Vasquez (minor league depth with whoever is left of the 4 Rule V eligible guys).
1B: Severino
2B: Julien
3B: Lewis
SS: Correa
OF: Wallner, Lee, Kiriloff
DH: Buxton
Utility: Castro, Martin
Backup OF: Kiersey

Toss in a few free agent signings and you've even got depth down on the farm.  Trading a couple prospects (or even a major leaguer if you got someone like Lopez) isn't going to destroy that depth.

[clone52]

1 hour ago, terrydactyls said:

While the Twins should always be open to trade, I think now is time to NOT use this as a primary method for building a rotation.  Returning in 2024 are Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Paddock, and Varland.  There is a possibility of resigning Gray and/or Maeta.  Tyler Mahli will be a free agent, but what's his market coming off Tommy John surgery?  The Twins could make him an offer of two years for $5M total and probably get him to sign.  He had the surgery in May and it wasn't a full-blown tommy john surgery so he may be back by June.  (That is my non-medical opinion,)  In the wings are SWR and Festa.  That's a possible ten starters to choose from.  I think they need to speed their energy, time, and money on finding someone that can put the ball in play.

 

You're not wrong.  I think they probably go that route and sign a short term older guy.

However, if a guy like Lopez is available, they have the depth to make it happen.  Lee and Jenkins are the only untouchables for a guy like that in my opinion.

[Vanimal46]

If they are going to miss out on the top free agent SPs like Gray, Nola, Snell, Ohtani (lol), and Ed Rodriguez, then I’m good with making another trade. Why would we not double down on our strength for next year?

[TopGunn#22]

Neither Paddock nor Varland will "replace" what Sonny Gray gave the Twins this season.  Don't misunderstand what I'm saying here.  Both Paddock and Varland could and will probably be pretty good next season...but not Sonny Gray level good.  The Twins should be able to expect some level of improvement from Ryan and Ober but they can't count on it.  Lopez will be our #1 and he'll be fine.  

Nicksaviking is right.  The best thing our FO did this last off season was establishing tremendous depth in the rotation.  And we needed it.  Ryan, Ober, Maeda all spent time on the I.L.  Paddock looks very good but he's several years away from a full season of starting.

I would like to see them make a deal for a SP.  It just depends on who and what the cost would be.  Prediction:  I think Sonny Gray struggles to come close to replicating his 2023 with the Twins.  I like the idea of looking into Eduardo Rodriguez as a LH in the rotation, but he turned down the deadline deal to the Dodgers and with the Tigers improving I can't see them trading him to us.  Blake Snell would be fantastic.  But he will be coming off a CY Young season and as you saw the Dodgers post season starting staff in tatters and the Cardinals prowling for pitching this off season I just can't see the Twins winning a free agent bidding war for Snell.  So while we certainly could benefit from a LH starter, I just can't see either Snell or Ed Rod. ending up with the Twins.

So who else is there?  Brandon Woodruff could be available from the Brewers but he'd be expensive.  Still, he's been a horse his entire career except this season, and when he was able to pitch he was every bit the Stud he's been and he would probably be an improvement on Sonny Gray.  But he wouldn't come cheap.  If Frankie Montas is healthy maybe the Yankees would foolishly give up on him for a young LH slugger like Wallner or Larnach?  There is always the possibility they sign Mahle to a cheap-team friendly 2 year contract and he's ready to go sometime in May-early June.  If Mahle is healthy he's a solid #3 type SP.  

As was discussed in another thread, the Twins are in a really solid position with young prospects already contributing like Lewis, Julien, Kiriloff, Wallner, and guys like Brooks Lee, Emmanuel Rodriguez and Walker Jenkins knocking on the door.  They could win the A.L. Central Division for the next 5-6 seasons.  But each off season it will be crucial the FO makes the right decisions on how to construct the roster and bring along prospects.  They failed miserably by signing Gallo with a plethora of LH hitting corner OF and 1B already on the roster.  Signing one solid bullpen arm going into the 2023 season would have helped a LOT in the regular season.  They struck gold with signings like Taylor, Castro and Farmer and the trade for Lopez.  They whiffed on the Vasquez signing.  It's a mixed bag and no FO ever hits on every move.  They need someone they count count on to play CF and that should be a top priority going into the off season so acquiring another SP may need to wait until that gaping hole is filled.  Maybe Buxton will be "relatively" healthy next year, but they can't count on him.  I expect Correa to bounce back and have a much better year at the plate.  The future looks promising and nothing makes a promising future more likely in baseball than a deep and talented starting pitching staff.  The Twins should look at any and all possibilities to add to and deepen their already promising starting rotation.  

[Five minute major]

Am I the only one here who sees offense as the overwhelmingly number one issue with this team.  We don't hit above average pitching and haven't since Cruz left.   Offense needs to be addressed first.    And not with a Joey Gallo type signing.   

[Cornholio]

The Mariners need help at first base and second. Maybe Gilbert is available. Peralta / Woodruff / Burnes from the Brewers,  or Cease could be possibilities. What kind of commitment would it take to sign Yamamoto? $200-250 mil?

[clone52]

Let's think about this from the Twins' staff point of view.  They targeted Lopez, a really good, but not elite pitcher, whom they saw as someone with a tweak or two could be elite.  I'm certainly not qualified to determine who might be an average or good pitcher who could make a tweak and bump up.

How about Sears, Waldichuk or Medina from the A's.  None of them set the world on fire and they are super young, so the A's might not want to sell low, but if the Twins staff saw something that could be the trigger to make a leap, you do it.

Blackburn for the A's is more likely.  Again, only if the Twins saw something that could be a game changes.

I always hear rumors that Seattle would trade from their SP depth for lineup help.  It looks like they could use an upgrade at 2B, 3B and RF.  What would it take to get Miller, Woo, Hancock or Berroa?  Severino and E. Rodriguez for Woo?  Or aim high.  Julien, E. Rodriguez and Festa for Logan Gilbert.

Do the Rockies or Nats have any SPs they are failing to develop.

What are the pirates plans?  Do they think they can contend in 24 or 25?  Mitch Keller is a FA in 2026.  If not, how about Julien and Festa for Mitch Keller?

 

 

[USAFChief]

19 minutes ago, Five minute major said:

Am I the only one here who sees offense as the overwhelmingly number one issue with this team.    

No. You're not.

The Twins lack a middle of the order.

It's tough to have a good offense when you don't have a couple three really good, dependable tough outs to build around. 

I have high hopes that Julien will develop into a very good leadoff hitter. 

Maybe Lewis, although I'm skeptical.

 

[Riverbrian]

19 minutes ago, Five minute major said:

Am I the only one here who sees offense as the overwhelmingly number one issue with this team.  We don't hit above average pitching and haven't since Cruz left.   Offense needs to be addressed first.    And not with a Joey Gallo type signing.   

The offense was a huge problem in June. 

It got better

It didn't get better enough

Some of that improvement was through subtraction.  

You can address needs simultaneously but offense would have to be #1 if I were to rank needs according to my opinion. 

Bringing that K rate down is a good place to start. 

[Vanimal46]

4 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

No. You're not.

The Twins lack a middle of the order.

It's tough to have a good offense when you don't have a couple three really good, dependable tough outs to build around. 

 

Concur. You get it, the discussion doesn’t have to be either/or. The Twins have enough money to sign a frontline FA starter/trade for one, and acquire a middle of the order bat. 

[USAFChief]

2 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

Concur. You get it, the discussion doesn’t have to be either/or. The Twins have enough money to sign a frontline FA starter/trade for one, and acquire a middle of the order bat. 

Like I said...Bellinger, Soto, Snell, and Hader. Is that too much to ask? ;)

 

"All I want is frickin' sharks with frickin' Lazer beams attached to their frickin' heads...is that too much to ask?"

 

[2wins87]

3 minutes ago, clone52 said:

Let's think about this from the Twins' staff point of view.  They targeted Lopez, a really good, but not elite pitcher, whom they saw as someone with a tweak or two could be elite.  I'm certainly not qualified to determine who might be an average or good pitcher who could make a tweak and bump up.

How about Sears, Waldichuk or Medina from the A's.  None of them set the world on fire and they are super young, so the A's might not want to sell low, but if the Twins staff saw something that could be the trigger to make a leap, you do it.

Blackburn for the A's is more likely.  Again, only if the Twins saw something that could be a game changes.

I always hear rumors that Seattle would trade from their SP depth for lineup help.  It looks like they could use an upgrade at 2B, 3B and RF.  What would it take to get Miller, Woo, Hancock or Berroa?  Severino and E. Rodriguez for Woo?  Or aim high.  Julien, E. Rodriguez and Festa for Logan Gilbert.

Do the Rockies or Nats have any SPs they are failing to develop.

What are the pirates plans?  Do they think they can contend in 24 or 25?  Mitch Keller is a FA in 2026.  If not, how about Julien and Festa for Mitch Keller?

 

 

I did minimal research on guys that might have something to be unlocked.  I think Mitch Keller is at the top of my list right now.  Gets ground balls and strikeouts, has a good fastball as a foundation, and throws three breaking balls but they are all pretty mediocre.  The plan would be to try to tweak one of the breaking balls to turn it into a weapon and severely cut back on any of the others.  He has two more years of control and was the foundation of Pittsburgh's rotation this year, so he wouldn't be easy to pry away, though they will be looking to get Skenes into their rotation next year and have a couple other promising pitching prospects in the upper minors, so I don't think Keller would be off limits.  They would want young talent.  I think a package could start with someone like Kirilloff with some prospects.

Another somewhat similar guy with two years of control and a good K rate from a team that is definitely open to trades is Griffin Canning.  The Angels are not known for maximizing their pitchers.  I wouldn't be as hopeful on Canning though as his fastball is only ok and he gives up a lot of HR on it.  It seems like the Twins pitching development is best at tweaking the breaking stuff, so I am looking more for guys with a good fastball as a foundation.

[terrydactyls]

2 hours ago, FlyingFinn said:

I wouldn't mind a reasonable offer to sign Maeda. He's got some good games in him for the regular season as the 5 starters listed by @terrydactyls will be injured at some time during the season and I want Festa and company to have more time at AAA.

This is Gray's chance for one last payday (or retire to be with family) so I see him getting $60 million for 3 years.

I recommended in another thread that the Twins offer Gray a 4-year, $90M deal at the following amounts:

2024  $30M

2025 $25M

2026 $20M (with a buyout)

2027 $15M (with a buyout)

[clone52]

2 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

I recommended in another thread that the Twins offer Gray a 4-year, $90M deal at the following amounts:

2024  $30M

2025 $25M

2026 $20M (with a buyout)

2027 $15M (with a buyout)

I think someone is going to offer him 5/110.

[Blyleven2011]

2 hours ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

If a pitcher comes up that you think you can turn into an elite pitcher yes I would consider it but the staff is looking very strong.  You have your #1 in Lopez locked up for 4 years.   The Twins have a decision to make as to who the #2 is.  Paddack looked very good at the end of the season.  I have a feeling he will step into the #2 spot.  Then with Ryan, Ober, Varland you have a top 5.  Now I do think they need to get another pitcher.  Whether that is resigning Gray who could step in as your #2 or #3 or going for a pitcher they think they can fix.  Personally I think they  let Gray go.  If you could get Eduardo Rodriguez as a decent contract I would consider it,  but in general they look for value contracts on trades,  which brings us back to a possibly trade option.  Right now OF and 1st base and RP are primary areas I would be looking at upgrading and then retooling the depth players.  I think this offseason will be wide open for the front office.  

I hope the front office realizes  the better team won and can add some pieces to make us better  ...

We had decent pitching in the playoffs , but hitting went south before winter even arrived ...

Some players need to go to driveline  and figure out how to identify pitches  to hit or layoff  , also have to re-teach them if its close with 2 strikes  you swing ...

[Unwinder]

I believe that they will trade for a starter, they always do. And we will very likely give up someone we like a lot in order to get one. This year's good rotation was built by throwing a lot of starting pitching trades at the wall and seeing what stuck, seems like the best way to repeat the results is to keep doing it. As it stands, next year's rotation looks about as good and has about as many question marks as this year's rotation did prior to the Pablo Lopez trade. Maybe more since Varland doesn't seem like as much of a lock as Ober did this year.

[terrydactyls]

38 minutes ago, clone52 said:

I think someone is going to offer him 5/110.

You are probably right but I hope it isn't the Twins.

[Twinsoholic]

The Mets have a lot of guaranteed contracts according to MLB Trade Rumors. Is there a hitter and/or starter that the Twins might want from the Mets? I assume the Mets want to free up some salary to provide more flexibility in assembling their team after this past season’s terrible showing. Hitters include Alonso and outfielder Brandon Nimmo. If not trading for a hitter, could the Mets be enticed to trade Kodai Senga to the Twins? Nimmo is owed a lot of money but is controllable through 2030 and Senga through 2027. I think Alonso is under control for the 2024 season ($22 million estimated arbitration salary). The salaries for any one of these three controllable players may be too much from the Twins perspective, but would Alonso on a one year deal be worth it to fill the middle of the batting order?
 

 

 

[clone52]

4 hours ago, terrydactyls said:

You are probably right but I hope it isn't the Twins.

Agree.  Too long for his age.

Seems like he may be wired differently.  There was a story earlier this year that he hadn't ruled out retirement.  I think talked about how his kids were getting old.  Maybe we'll get lucky and he likes Minnesota and just wants another year or 2.

[Unwinder]

12 minutes ago, clone52 said:

Agree.  Too long for his age.

Seems like he may be wired differently.  There was a story earlier this year that he hadn't ruled out retirement.  I think talked about how his kids were getting old.  Maybe we'll get lucky and he likes Minnesota and just wants another year or 2.

Honestly, if a pro athlete can walk away from tens of millions of dollars to spend a few more years with family full-time, kudos to him. Not a lot of people are capable of saying "I have enough money."

[Nine of twelve]

I've always thought it was ridiculous for people here to post specific proposals for trades, extensions, and free agent contracts. But I will say two things. One, trade anyone who doesn't have a no-trade clause in his contract if it makes the organization better. Two, pitching is the most important of the four aspects of baseball. A good rotation, preferably with at least one lefty, will take a team far. And 5 starters is never enough.