Possibly swap Gray for Ryan, game 2 starter?

[Road trip]

So would it be crazy to swap our starters for Game 2?  The Twins have game 1 in the win column.  IF the Twins start Ryan and win (Ryan would be on normal rest), they can start Gray in game 1 vs the Astros, followed by Lopez.  If we start Ryan and lose, we still have Gray for game 3 vs Toronto. 

If Gray needs to be used in game 3 vs Toronto (and wins), it doesn't penalize the rotation for the Houston series, as he would still be on track to start game 3 of the Astros series (next Tuesday), just as projected if he starts game 2 vs Toronto today.

Bonus #1 - If there is a high-pressure elimination game 3 vs Toronto, we have our most veteran starter available.

Added Bonus #2... it means we can back Ryan up to game 3 or 4 (at home) of the Houston series, instead of a potential game 1 start if the Twins win today.  Ryan has extreme home-road splits.  He would be especially vulnerable to fly balls in Houston's band-box stadium.

Is there any down-side to doing this?

[Nine of twelve]

If starting Ryan in game 1 in Houston is worrisome we can start Ober, or possibly Maeda. To me there's no question that we want to start Gray today. I think starting him gives us a better chance to win than starting Ryan, and winning the series in 2 is a big advantage over winning in 3.

[CRF]

Nine of Twelve hit it right on the screws. 100% correct. 

[Puckett34]

47 minutes ago, Road trip said:

So would it be crazy to swap our starters for Game 2?  The Twins have game 1 in the win column.  IF the Twins start Ryan and win (Ryan would be on normal rest), they can start Gray in game 1 vs the Astros, followed by Lopez.  If we start Ryan and lose, we still have Gray for game 3 vs Toronto. 

If Gray needs to be used in game 3 vs Toronto (and wins), it doesn't penalize the rotation for the Houston series, as he would still be on track to start game 3 of the Astros series (next Tuesday), just as projected if he starts game 2 vs Toronto today.

Bonus #1 - If there is a high-pressure elimination game 3 vs Toronto, we have our most veteran starter available.

Added Bonus #2... it means we can back Ryan up to game 3 or 4 (at home) of the Houston series, instead of a potential game 1 start if the Twins win today.  Ryan has extreme home-road splits.  He would be especially vulnerable to fly balls in Houston's band-box stadium.

Is there any down-side to doing this?

Road trip. Love your optimism, but I say the Twins just end this today.  Stack Ryan/Ober or Maeda in game one of the ALDS if needed.  I'd assume they do the same with tomorrow if needed.

[FlyingFinn]

Winning in two games would also give Lewis two days off to rest his hamstring more. Obviously, we need him as healthy as possible. Gray goes in game #2.

[bighat]

I get where you're going with this - and Ryan isn't chopped liver by any means, so it makes sense to a certain extent. Rocco's always "playing for tomorrow" so it fits with the current Twins method. 

That said, going to Toronto for a Game 3 sounds like a nightmare. Rather than have Gray start that game, the Twins would prefer to avoid it all together. Gray today, worry about Houston when we get to Houston. 

[Puckett34]

1 minute ago, bighat said:

I get where you're going with this - and Ryan isn't chopped liver by any means, so it makes sense to a certain extent. Rocco's always "playing for tomorrow" so it fits with the current Twins method. 

That said, going to Toronto for a Game 3 sounds like a nightmare. Rather than have Gray start that game, the Twins would prefer to avoid it all together. Gray today, worry about Houston when we get to Houston. 

Game three of the WC series tomorrow would be in Minnesota though.  Unless I'm not reading your post correctly

[CRF]

3 minutes ago, bighat said:

I get where you're going with this - and Ryan isn't chopped liver by any means, so it makes sense to a certain extent. Rocco's always "playing for tomorrow" so it fits with the current Twins method. 

That said, going to Toronto for a Game 3 sounds like a nightmare. Rather than have Gray start that game, the Twins would prefer to avoid it all together. Gray today, worry about Houston when we get to Houston. 

If there's a game 3...and I hope there isn't...it would be here. No going to Toronto. The whole series is at Target Field. 

[Squirrel]

1 minute ago, bighat said:

Rocco's always "playing for tomorrow" so it fits with the current Twins method.

I wouldn't put it that way, exactly ... he's played the long game all through the season and it got us here. Resting players, putting players on the IL ... to everyone's frustration and complaints. But I'd bet that we have one of the healthier rosters, especially pitchers. 

It was no question that Lopez was starting game 1 and Gray game 2. That's been set since we clinched, and maybe before. We've known that and Rocco has stated that. Beyond those two, well, we could see some variance, and we have the depth to allow for that. Rocco and the FO got our pitchers to line up to go this way, so I don't get the 'Twins method' comment on this. It was never a consideration. All season they played the long game, now they are playing to win every game they can, and that shows with the roster they went with and the order the starters are scheduled.

[bighat]

7 minutes ago, Puckett34 said:

Game three of the WC series tomorrow would be in Minnesota though.  Unless I'm not reading your post correctly

 

4 minutes ago, CRF said:

If there's a game 3...and I hope there isn't...it would be here. No going to Toronto. The whole series is at Target Field. 

 

Wow, I had no clue. Thanks. 

[nicksaviking]

I suppose I stick with Gray, but Ryan's only start in Houston he got obliterated.

And of teams he's faced more than once in his career, Houston is easily the opponent he's pitched the worst against.

[strumdatjag]

If it was just about the starters, that would make sense.   However, the Twins want to win today to get an extra day of rest in order to be at their best for the Astros.   This is best for Royce’s hammy, Carlos’s foot, and maybe even Buxton’s knee (nah he’d be sitting out game 3 anyways!) 

[DJL44]

Nevermind

[jorgenswest]

Gray today.

Have they announced tomorrow’s starter?. I think they have enough in the pen to hold back Maeda as long as Gray takes them into the 6th and there isn’t extra innings. 

I would go with Maeda game 3. I think the his pitch mix will be more difficult in the late afternoon sun.

Should they get to Houston they can go Ober, Lopez, Gray, Ryan and Lopez.

[Puckett34]

1 minute ago, jorgenswest said:

Gray today.

Have they announced tomorrow’s starter?. I think they have enough in the pen to hold back Maeda as long as Gray takes them into the 6th and there isn’t extra innings. 

I would go with Maeda game 3. I think the his pitch mix will be more difficult in the late afternoon sun.

Should they get to Houston they can go Ober, Lopez, Gray, Ryan and Lopez.

[Squirrel]

12 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

I suppose I stick with Gray, but Ryan's only start in Houston he got obliterated.

And of teams he's faced more than once in his career, Houston is easily the opponent he's pitched the worst against.

It's not a guarantee, though, that he will pitch to them, at least not Game 1 if we get there. Could be Maeda or Ober.

[nicksaviking]

OK, going down the rabbit hole a bit, Ryan, Ober, Maeda, Lopez and Keuchel all get taken to the woodshed when facing the Astros. 

Sonny Gray flat out owns the Astros and Louie Varland had one start against them and kicked them in the teeth too.

But all of this brings up one giant red flag. Only a crazy Twins fan (me) would research and game plan ahead a series when they haven't even clinched the first round.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Win the game in front of you, worry about tomorrow tomorrow.

[Squirrel]

21 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Win the game in front of you, worry about tomorrow tomorrow.

Yep ... we've played the long game all season. Now it's win every game and win the first one first.

[nicksaviking]

20 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Win the game in front of you, worry about tomorrow tomorrow.

That's not very Minnesotan. We worry about the game today, the game tomorrow, if I-94 is going to have black ice, if the people at work will like my new haircut, if company comes over and thinks my house is messy and if someone else brought a better potato salad to the picnic.

[chpettit19]

Don't play games with this. Put your best pitchers out in the playoffs as often as possible. Worry about game 3, or game 1, when you have to. There's nothing set in stone that just because we all expect Ryan to start game 3 if it's needed that means he's the game 1 starter against Houston. Put your best option out there in each game and win series as quickly as you can. Anything can happen in any given game, you don't play with things, you just put your guys out there and advance as quickly as possible.

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

2 hours ago, Puckett34 said:

Road trip. Love your optimism, but I say the Twins just end this today.  Stack Ryan/Ober or Maeda in game one of the ALDS if needed.  I'd assume they do the same with tomorrow if needed.

This.

The Twins have options for the ALCS. Ober, Maeda and Paddack can piggyback Ryan's start in game 1 - presuming the Twins win today.

[Trov]

There is some logic to the swap, but I agree we need to just go for win game 2.  We have the 1 game in hand, run your best guy out there.  Do not worry about round 2, until you know you are there.  

[Azviking101]

I understand the idea, but you’re getting too cute. You go for the sweep here and that means playing your best players 

If you go with this plan and lose and Gray pitches tomorrow then gray is not available until game 4 of the ALDS

[IaBeanCounter]

As you mentioned Ryan has terrible home/away splits.  If the Twins win today, Ober should be the game 1 starter vs HOU.  Ober has a very small home/away split.  As stated above Ryan would get a start when the Twins return home. 

[Road trip]

Ok, yes, I think I'm convinced it is correct to stay with the original "Gray in game 2 plan", largely due to Flying Finn's argument on making every effort to get Lewis an extra day off.  I still *really* don't want to see Ryan start game 1 in Houston if the Twins win today, but that is an argument for another day (hopefully).  And it obviously isn't going to change at this point anyway...

[Rosterman]

We take it one game at a time. If we win today, then just have to figrue out who does what.

Remember, Madea is still out there and would be an option to start a Game 3, depending on any need for Game 2.

Then you worry about Houston. Who starts Game 1, with Lopez still on the books for Game 2 and then Gray for Game 3. 

But let's just do one game at a time.

[LA Vikes Fan]

So now that we've won, what's the starter order for the ALDS?

[jorgenswest]

9 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

So now that we've won, what's the starter order for the ALDS?

Bailey Ober in game 1 against Verlander followed by Lopez and Gray. Lopez can come back game 5. Game 4 can stay TBA to see how Maeda is used. They need all 5 on the roster.

[FlyingFinn]

12 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

So now that we've won, what's the starter order for the ALDS?

I think the Twins will pitch Ryan in game #1 but I would go Ober, Lopez, Gray, Ryan, Lopez.