Don't Be Silly. Jhoan Duran Is As Good As It Gets.

[Lou Hennessy]

Sure, Jhoan Duran has had a couple hiccups throughout the season. You could say that about virtually any pitcher in baseball. But you would be hard-pressed to find many bullpen arms as lethal and dominant as the Twins’ closer. So how good has he been and how does he compare to his competition in the American League?

Image courtesy of Jeffrey Becker, USA TODAY Sports

For some reason, there is a small, yet vocal tangent of casual Twins fans that think the team shouldn’t be confident in their second-year closer, Jhoan Duran. Despite a strong 2.49 ERA and excellent peripherals to back up his stellar performance, some think he’s too shaky to have success in the postseason. 

Their criticism could speak more to their general apprehension to the Twins team in general after 18 straight losses in the playoffs, some coming at the hands of a lackluster relief corps. But that shouldn’t be Duran’s problem as his team nears their first playoff game, especially after the encouraging campaign he’s had this season. Not only has the Twins’ closer displayed some of the most dominant raw stuff of anyone in the league, but there’s reason to believe he’s one of the better arms that will be playing in October. 

Yes, Duran’s fastball is his calling card. It’s hard to not be known as the guy that touched 104 MPH earlier this season. His heater has averaged 101.4 MPH since breaking into the league at the beginning of last season, which is by far the highest among all relievers in that span according to Inside Edge. The next highest is Jordan Hicks of the Toronto Blue Jays, whose 99.8 MPH average velocity is nearly two whole ticks lower than that of Duran. 

The Twins’ closer throws fireballs, and for the most part, is quite successful when doing so. Opponents have a whopping 35% miss rate on that offering, which is third-best among all pitchers in baseball this season. 
While that pitch is impressive, it’s certainly not perfect. Half of the home runs that Duran has given up have come off of his fastball, and he’s allowed a .380 slugging percentage off of it (which is still quite good, but the highest of each of his offerings). One of the only blemishes on his Baseball Savant page is his 40th percentile average exit velocity allowed, and much of that stems from the higher-velocity pitches going a long way when they do get hit. The other bruise to Duran’s stat line is his 9.6% walk rate, which is a valid concern, but it’s not the insurmountable anchor that the vocal minority seem to think it is. 

So maybe that’s where the trepidation surrounding the hulking reliever comes from. Maybe Duran’s harshest critics can’t get past the idea that their relief ace could allow runners to reach base in a pivotal moment for his team in the postseason. This fear was festered by the performance of Twins’ relievers of yesteryear, who couldn’t live up to the moment when the stadium lights were shining brightest. 

But, again, that has nothing to do with Duran. In fact, he’s performed stronger than almost anybody that the Twins could face in the first few rounds of the postseason. Just take a look at the class of relievers that are or could feasibly make the postseason in the American League (this includes surefire playoff teams such as the Baltimore Orioles and Tampa Bay Rays, as well as those still fighting for the last few spots on the bracket such as the Toronto Blue Jays, Houston Astros, Texas Rangers and Seattle Mariners).  

Of all the relief pitchers on those teams that could possibly be in the playoffs, Duran has the eighth-best ERA, and only two of the names listed above his have a better strikeout rate (Bryan Abreu and Felix Bautista, who is currently on the injured list and may not even make the playoff roster). Of the seven pitchers with a better ERA than Duran, four have a higher walk rate. 

This shows us that few have gotten better results in terms of allowing earned runs to score, and those that have can’t seem to match his strikeout capability. If they can, they tend to struggle even more with Duran’s main blemish, which is walking batters. 

So if some think that we should be concerned with Duran as the Twins head to the playoffs, the same could be said for nearly every other pitcher on contending teams. At that point, the issue becomes the fickle nature of a close ballgame in the late innings, and not the fire-breathing monster who has led the Twins’ relief corps for the last two years. Could Duran give up a lead in a postseason game? Of course. Any pitcher can. But until that happens, fans should sit back and enjoy the ride - especially if it comes with the best entrance music and light show of anyone in the game. 

What do you think? Are you confident in Duran as he heads into postseason play? Is there anyone in the league that you would rather have closing out a playoff game? Let us know your thoughts in the comment section down below. And as always, keep it sweet. 

View full article

[jimbo92107]

Duran came into his latest game to test out a few off-speed pitches, between his usual fireballs. Twins are using these last meaningless games to rest certain players, and to give some returning pitchers a tryout at relief duty. 

The last series is in Colorado. I wonder if Duran would like to enter one of those games to see if he can pop the mitt at 105...

[mikelink45]

All RP have struggles at times - it comes with the territory, but I will take Duran and I am happy to see the BP lining up.  Still question if Paddock can do it, but otherwise I am fine with the group we have.

In fact, I hate to say this, but I am feeling confident that the losing streak is going to end - quickly.  Did I just jinx them?

[pierre75275]

There is nobody I would rather have then Duran.

There is nobody better. A couple are close, Josh Hader or Felix Bautista maybe even Chapman. But I would still take Duran over all of them. He brings the fire and emotion.

[TwinsTX]

He is an elite thrower. He needs to work on becoming an elite pitcher.. With his stuff it's frustrating to watch him frequently get to a 3 ball count, especially on guys in the bottom of the order that he can overwhelm with 104 mph fastballs. Don't get me wrong, there's no one id rather have out there with the game on the line.

[Trov]

What gives me the biggest pause is his statements about his outing in the clinching game.  He reported he was off a bit because of the moment.  Hopefully, pitching in that situation will give him the experience on what it will be like in playoffs.  If a game in regular season to clinch playoff spot caused him to be off, when there was no way at that point we were not making playoffs, how will he do in an elimination game?  I still have faith in him, and he is the best we got, but when I heard those comments I gulp a little. 

[MGM4706]

Pretty good article. But you are right. The Walks are the concern. People still think of an elite closer to be like Rivera was from the Yankees. Nobody worried about him walking people when he came in. It was Game Over! Duran is not there yet. But certainly headed that way 

[DJL44]

I think Duran is a great reliever but I also think we haven't seen his best season. He can get better with location.

[Ricky Vaughn]

But until that happens, fans should sit back and enjoy the ride - especially if it comes with the best entrance music and light show of anyone in the game. 

I think the show the team puts on for his entrance gives the fans the expectation of perfection. On the rare times he fails it makes some fans doubt him.

[arby58]

4 minutes ago, MGM4706 said:

Pretty good article. But you are right. The Walks are the concern. People still think of an elite closer to be like Rivera was from the Yankees. Nobody worried about him walking people when he came in. It was Game Over! Duran is not there yet. But certainly headed that way 

Sure, but Rivera was more just 'an elite closer' - he was a first ballot, unanimous selection to the MLB Hall of Fame.  

[Blyleven2011]

I could name a few from the league but they are retired ,

One that comes to mind who has faired well with playoff experience  is Dave Robertson  , traded from Mets to marlins this year  ...

Chapman isn't what he used to be and no one else is coming to mind  , last year's clase from Cleveland  , this year's clase not so much ...

Duran has done the job but has got you on the edge of your seat with his higher walk rate  ...

I'll stick with what we have and I too am getting encouraged by our bullpen mix of varland , maeda , Stewart , funderburk  , maybe paddack ...

 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

I'm happy with Duran. And like Forrest Gump, "That's all I've got to say about that."

[Lou Hennessy]

52 minutes ago, MGM4706 said:

Pretty good article. But you are right. The Walks are the concern. People still think of an elite closer to be like Rivera was from the Yankees. Nobody worried about him walking people when he came in. It was Game Over! Duran is not there yet. But certainly headed that way 

Rivera is the best closer of all time. Is that really the standard we want to use for comparing Duran?

[RIP BYTO]

I'm just amazed that anyone can throw a baseball 104 MPH and hit a 4 Sq. Ft. box from 60+ ft away on a fairly consistent basis.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

I agree completely with the premise of this article.  While Duran is human, he is still at least as good as or better than almost all of the other relief pitchers we could put in the closer role on our team and others.  Somehow we expect that perfection is the only acceptable outcome from a closer, when experience says that's just not true.  Even Mariano Rivera and Joe Nathan allowed runs and occasionally blew saves. 

[arby58]

1 hour ago, Blyleven2011 said:

I'll stick with what we have and I too am getting encouraged by our bullpen mix of varland , maeda , Stewart , funderburk  , maybe paddack ...

 

Varland, Stewart, and Paddock all can 'bring it' in the upper 90s MPH. Maeda gives them the 'crafty veteran' guile. Don't forget about Pagan and Thielbar, who have been pretty solid all year long. Plus, Jax appears to be coming out of the funk he was in for awhile. This is a deep group.

[Fatbat]

Yeah. Every team in MLB would love to have him on the roster despite his lack of a 67 mph knuckler that he can consistently throw for strikes. 🤣

[farmerguychris]

Glad he's in our pen instead of having to face him.  Hoping they'll teach him a slider in the future just to have an extra layer of wow!

[Jocko87]

4 hours ago, arby58 said:

Sure, but Rivera was more just 'an elite closer' - he was a first ballot, unanimous selection to the MLB Hall of Fame.  

 

3 hours ago, Lou Hennessy said:

Rivera is the best closer of all time. Is that really the standard we want to use for comparing Duran?

The English language would like a word.  As good as it gets would, by definition, include Rivera.  Maybe we can talk “As good as it gets, non-hall of fame or active player edition.”

As much as I love Duran, I dislike internet hyperbole more. 

[Lou Hennessy]

5 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

 

The English language would like a word.  As good as it gets would, by definition, include Rivera.  Maybe we can talk “As good as it gets, non-hall of fame or active player edition.”

As much as I love Duran, I dislike internet hyperbole more. 

The article compares him to other relievers around the league in 2023. If I wanted to compare him to the all-time greats I would have said he's "as good as anyone ever."

But I hear your point. Thanks for reading. If you run into the English language, please tell them I'm sorry. 

[awmonahan]

He's who you want in there to close it. Unfortunately, you can't be a lockdown playoff reliever without playoff experience. Hopefully his first test is at Target Field, against an overmatched opponent, goes well and we can put the worrying to bed. 

And if Rocco brings him in mid-inning, for his first playoff outing, we smash our TVs. 

[JD-TWINS]

5 hours ago, MGM4706 said:

Pretty good article. But you are right. The Walks are the concern. People still think of an elite closer to be like Rivera was from the Yankees. Nobody worried about him walking people when he came in. It was Game Over! Duran is not there yet. But certainly headed that way 

Mo - best of all-time! Tough comparison.

Clase in Cleveland was an All-Star - leads AL in saves with 43. He has 10 blown saves!!

Duran has as good of stuff as any pitcher I’ve seen over 50 years of watching baseball. Splitter at 98-99 ……..Curve at 89-90…………101-104 fastball. He pitches backwards quite often - seems like he wants to look cool - surprise or fool people. I don’t get it at all! Throw fastball to get ahead - yes, get ahead in count. He throws fantastic breaking or off-speed stuff early in counts - but often they are not strikes. Then he overthrows a couple fastballs, up , & it’s 3-0 or 3-1. Walks a guy and puts himself in a bad spot, scrambling.

Start with the fastball middle - middle at 102 and work off of that 0-1 count!!!! Can’t afford not to get ahead.

[Blyleven2011]

6 hours ago, arby58 said:

Varland, Stewart, and Paddock all can 'bring it' in the upper 90s MPH. Maeda gives them the 'crafty veteran' guile. Don't forget about Pagan and Thielbar, who have been pretty solid all year long. Plus, Jax appears to be coming out of the funk he was in for awhile. This is a deep group.

Yep , I should have said in addition to our bullpen of the usual relievers  Jax,  theilbar  , Pagan  ...

We aren't looking to bad  , they just have to want it and bring , paddack the first inning he pitched he was hungry bulldog happy to be on the mound  ....

It's time for all of them to give it their all with a different mentality in the playoffs ...

Win and move on , lose and go home ...

[JD-TWINS]

5 hours ago, farmerguychris said:

Glad he's in our pen instead of having to face him.  Hoping they'll teach him a slider in the future just to have an extra layer of wow!

IMO - he needs another pitch like he needs a hole in the head. He’s got 3 PLUS pitches…..more strikes & less wow is what we need to see.

[arby58]

14 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

IMO - he needs another pitch like he needs a hole in the head. He’s got 3 PLUS pitches…..more strikes & less wow is what we need to see.

Agree. One of the advantages of being a relief pitcher is you can often get by with just two plus pitches (or even one if you are a certain first ballot unanimous pick for the HOF reliever). As you note, Duran has three.

[DJL44]

18 hours ago, Lou Hennessy said:

But I hear your point. Thanks for reading. If you run into the English language, please tell them I'm sorry. 

[darin617]

Duran would be best in the Andrew Miller role if the Twins had another guy they could trust to close on a daily basis.

Duran also needs to mix in some off speed stuff to keep them off balance. If not they will just be picking a location and sitting on the fastball. It might be 104 but hitters can time it out. That's why the threat of an off speed pitch needs to be used more often.

[Woof Bronzer]

On 9/28/2023 at 8:47 AM, Trov said:

What gives me the biggest pause is his statements about his outing in the clinching game.  He reported he was off a bit because of the moment.  

This also concerned me.  We don't really talk about the fact that a lot of our young guys, who carried the team the year, not only have zero playoff experience but very little experience in big games.  It's great that we ran away with the division this year but we played in almost no high stakes games.  Playoffs are just different. If we face Houston, who has been through it before and who has been playing high stakes games for a couple weeks straight, I think this is a major concern.