How Much Have Injuries Really Hurt the Twins in 2026?

Injuries are one of the few parts of a baseball season that teams simply cannot control. Every fan base can point to the players who have spent time on the injured list and wonder how different the season might look if everyone had stayed healthy (cough… Pablo Lopez). For teams that haven't lived up to expectations, injuries can become an easy explanation for what went wrong.

But are some teams actually dealing with significantly more injury-related losses than others? FanGraphs’ Dan Szymborski recently took a closer look at that question, examining how much potential WAR each team has lost because of injuries during the 2026 season. The answer provides some interesting context for the Minnesota Twins.

An Aggregate Table of Sadness

Szymborski began with the overall injury picture across baseball.

“As I write this, there have been 690 independent IL stints so far in 2026, with 11 players hitting the IL on three separate occasions,” Szymborski wrote.

To estimate the impact of those injuries, he had ZiPS rerun projections for each player at the time of his injury. From there, he estimated how much potential WAR was lost because the player was unavailable.

Szymborski acknowledged that the exercise isn't perfect. Day-to-day injuries can be difficult to quantify, particularly when they aren't reported in detail. However, those injuries generally aren't significant enough to result in an IL stint. The result was what Szymborski jokingly called an “aggregate table of sadness.”

And the Twins aren't at the top of it, nor even close. Minnesota has lost an estimated 7.1 potential WAR to injuries, which ranks 17th in baseball. That number is notable because several teams ahead of Minnesota are either competing for postseason spots or entered the season with legitimate championship aspirations.

The Red Sox, Braves, Astros, Dodgers, Cubs and Brewers are among the teams that have lost more potential WAR to injuries. That doesn't necessarily mean those clubs have been unlucky in every sense. Some teams have larger payrolls and more established players, which naturally gives them more opportunities to lose projected WAR when someone gets hurt.

The Dodgers are perhaps the most obvious example. Los Angeles has routinely embraced players with significant injury histories, betting that the organization's depth and resources can help overcome those absences when October arrives. It's a strategy that looks considerably different when viewed through the lens of injury data.

How Minnesota Compares to the AL Central

Within the American League Central, Minnesota falls somewhere in the middle of the pack. The Tigers have lost an estimated 10.0 WAR, while the White Sox sit at 7.5 WAR. The Twins' 7.1 WAR follows those two teams. Kansas City has lost 6.5 WAR, while Cleveland has lost only 2.2 WAR. In fact, the Guardians are tied with Philadelphia for the second-lowest projected WAR lost to injury.

That doesn't mean Cleveland has avoided injuries entirely. It simply means the projected value of the players lost hasn't been as significant as it has been elsewhere. Losing a replacement-level player for a month isn't the same as losing an established star. The number of injuries alone doesn't tell the entire story. That's why Szymborski's methodology is useful in putting those absences into a more meaningful context.

The Twins Could Still Lose More

There's another part of Szymborski's analysis that should matter to Twins fans. He also looked at the projected WAR that teams could still lose to injuries for the remainder of the 2026 season. Minnesota has 2.4 potential WAR remaining on that list, which ranks 10th in baseball.

That's the second-highest total in the AL Central. Detroit is projected to have another 3.8 WAR potentially lost to injury, while Chicago sits at 2.0 WAR. Kansas City is at 1.7 WAR, and Cleveland is at just 0.4 WAR.  Again, these aren't predictions that specific players will get hurt. They're estimates of the potential value currently associated with players who will miss time. 

Currently, the Twins have six players on the 60-day IL including Lopez, Anthony Banda, David Festa, Mike Paredes, Mick Abel, and Cole Sands. None of those players are expected back this season. That impacts every game moving forward for Minnesota.  

Sometimes, It's Just Out of Your Hands

Baseball teams can control a lot. They can control how they prepare players. They can control roster construction. They can control how they deploy their pitching staff. They can make trades and call up prospects.

They can't control whether a player pulls a muscle running to first base. They can't control whether a pitcher feels something in his arm. And they certainly can't control how many injuries happen across the league.

That's what makes Szymborski's numbers particularly interesting for the Twins. They have dealt with injuries this season, but their 7.1 potential WAR lost doesn't place them in some uniquely unfortunate category. Other contenders have dealt with even larger losses, and several teams around the division have experienced similar or greater problems.

The Twins' fate over the final weeks will ultimately be determined by much more than their injury total. They still have to play the games, execute on the field and take advantage of the opportunities in front of them. But sometimes a team's fate is partially decided before it ever gets that far.

Injuries don't care about standings, payrolls or postseason expectations. And unfortunately for every team in baseball, there's no strategy that can completely prevent them.

Does it feel like the Twins should be higher? How will injuries impact the team the rest of the season? Leave a comment and start the discussion.