Royce long term

[GusGus11]

Something that is becoming very common now days is teams(Braves specifically) locking up their young talent right away with long deals at a lower rate then they would be in their prime by paying them now.

This is a move I doubt we do, but we really should. Pay more money now when hes young to get him on a long great deal and dont worry about having to do anything when hes 27/28.

This guy is a special talent. Pray for good health going forward.

[RpR]

Ah la Sano, Rooker...?

[stringer bell]

29 minutes ago, RpR said:

Ah la Sano, Rooker...?

Certainly Rooker was never considered an all-around talent like Lewis. Sanó looked like he could be an elite power hitter, but it soon became obvious he had major bat-to-ball contact issues. 

[stringer bell]

I think that is a move to be made next year in the off-season. 

[JD-TWINS]

I would focus on Ryan & Ober this off-season for early deals…….maybe Duran & Jax.

Re-sign Maeda for 2 years.

Let Lewis play for 3 months in a row at some point before considering any type of deal. He’s fun to watch - a real talent! Can only hope Lee is 85% as good.

Kirilloff is the same deal - need 3-4 months in a row……….he too is a talent!

[gunnarthor]

He's 24 and under team control through his age 29 season, right? No need to lock him up. He does have some injury history. 

[mnfireman]

43 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

I would focus on Ryan & Ober this off-season for early deals

Ryan will be 31 when he hits FA and Ober 32, I don't think the team needs to worry about locking them up long term as their best years will be covered by arbitration.

[GusGus11]

23 minutes ago, gunnarthor said:

He's 24 and under team control through his age 29 season, right? No need to lock him up. He does have some injury history. 

I am aware hes under control thats the whole point of the post lol. Teams are doing early lock ups at better rates. Examples being the Braves with Albies and Acuna.

Example(made up numbers) of this for Royce

Option 1(common practice) Keep him on his current "rookie" deal through age 29 where we mostly pay him pennies compared to his value. But at 29 have to pay him his mega prime contract that could be 8 years 250 mil

Option 2(what Braves did): Pay him more short term by locking in a 8 year 100 mil contract. But you get him through a bunch of his prime. Then worry about the next contract later on.

8 years 100 mil with 2 club options to make it 12 for $124 total. Acuna signed this in 2019 at 21 and the Braves get him through 2028 his age 30 season now. 10 full seasons of control at a great rate.

So they are paying more than they needed to right away but hes theres for longer and cheaper. So when hes doing **** like hes doing this year they are ballin on a discount.

[JD-TWINS]

6 minutes ago, mnfireman said:

Ryan will be 31 when he hits FA and Ober 32, I don't think the team needs to worry about locking them up long term as their best years will be covered by arbitration.

I get the economics - tough to argue. However, they have Lopez locked up through ‘27 so offering them some early security, maybe during next season if things are going well, allows us to get them for a known number going forward. Gets them feeling better about the job and they give up some $ in long-term for near term security. Once they are signed for a known number, they can be traded more easily if we want to move them.

I like the good faith side of the long-term deals for both sides…….maybe a naive point of view?

[mnfireman]

9 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

I get the economics - tough to argue. However, they have Lopez locked up through ‘27 so offering them some early security, maybe during next season if things are going well, allows us to get them for a known number going forward. Gets them feeling better about the job and they give up some $ in long-term for near term security. Once they are signed for a known number, they can be traded more easily if we want to move them.

I like the good faith side of the long-term deals for both sides…….maybe a naive point of view?

The Twins bought out Lopez's last year of arbitration, age 28, at a very reasonable number, and Lopez got a very nice 3 year FA contract. Lopez then gets to hit FA at age 31, though he turns 32 during spring training.

[gunnarthor]

31 minutes ago, GusGus11 said:

I am aware hes under control thats the whole point of the post lol. Teams are doing early lock ups at better rates. Examples being the Braves with Albies and Acuna.

Example(made up numbers) of this for Royce

Option 1(common practice) Keep him on his current "rookie" deal through age 29 where we mostly pay him pennies compared to his value. But at 29 have to pay him his mega prime contract that could be 8 years 250 mil

Option 2(what Braves did): Pay him more short term by locking in a 8 year 100 mil contract. But you get him through a bunch of his prime. Then worry about the next contract later on.

8 years 100 mil with 2 club options to make it 12 for $124 total. Acuna signed this in 2019 at 21 and the Braves get him through 2028 his age 30 season now. 10 full seasons of control at a great rate.

So they are paying more than they needed to right away but hes theres for longer and cheaper. So when hes doing **** like hes doing this year they are ballin on a discount.

I guess we had a different understanding of locking them up young.

Lewis is nice but a longterm contract with him should be a back burner issue, at best.

[JD-TWINS]

7 hours ago, mnfireman said:

The Twins bought out Lopez's last year of arbitration, age 28, at a very reasonable number, and Lopez got a very nice 3 year FA contract. Lopez then gets to hit FA at age 31, though he turns 32 during spring training.

Appreciate the details. Does it not make sense to do a similar style deal with Ryan/Ober (if confident in their health) at a smaller number or whatever seems market appropriate for an early deal?

I get Lopez was deeper in his career so therefore the smaller number for a firm deal with these less experienced guys. All 3 are 27, I think?

I guess your point is Lopez was free after ‘24 and these guys are not until after ‘27 or so.

[TwinsDr2021]

11 hours ago, GusGus11 said:

Something that is becoming very common now days is teams(Braves specifically) locking up their young talent right away with long deals at a lower rate then they would be in their prime by paying them now.

This is a move I doubt we do, but we really should. Pay more money now when hes young to get him on a long great deal and dont worry about having to do anything when hes 27/28.

This guy is a special talent. Pray for good health going forward.

I think the thing you are missing is the guys being locked up early are guys that came to the majors early (19,20,21, maybe 22)as well. Lewis didn't come up late like Ober and Ryan but the Twins already have him locked up though his prime years 26-29. It makes no sense for him (unless he is worried about more injuries) or the team to do this. Royce Lewis if healthy is going to get one shot at a FA contract and it is better for him to do that at age 29 and not the wrong side of 30.

[TwinsDr2021]

1 hour ago, JD-TWINS said:

Appreciate the details. Does it not make sense to do a similar style deal with Ryan/Ober (if confident in their health) at a smaller number or whatever seems market appropriate for an early deal?

I get Lopez was deeper in his career so therefore the smaller number for a firm deal with these less experienced guys. All 3 are 27, I think?

I guess your point is Lopez was free after ‘24 and these guys are not until after ‘27 or so.

I think the point is Lopez was free at 28 years old, and Ryan and Ober are going to be 31/32, which in a huge difference. They both could get one big contract at that age, but if they sign a deal for a smaller amount the odds are they never get a chance at the big contract. Plus by then the Twins should have replacements ready and the fans will be complaining about how old they are.

[chpettit19]

Lewis is definitely the all-around star type player that teams look at doing this with, but his injuries make me think the Twins would come in at a number much lower than he'd want. It's hard to find that balance between team security and player getting close to their worth with a guy who's missed this much time. Hard to tell what the market will be doing in the future and if those 10 year deals for 29 year olds will finally die, but, as of now, guys hitting the market between 29 and 31 are still getting massive deals. So this idea that "he's locked up until he's 29 so there's not really a reason to do it" is a little misleading.

If he's a superstar he'll get signed until he's 40 for a crazy amount. Manny Machado just restructured his deal at the age of 29 to be an 11 year 350 mil deal. Trea Turner at 29/30 just signed an 11 year 300 mil deal.  Bogaerts at 29/30 got 11 years 280. At 33 Miggy got 8/248. At 30 Kris Bryant got 7/182. There is absolutely still value in buying up a couple FA years for a guy going into his early 30s. I think the interesting part is that the Correa/Buxton deals come off the books around when Lewis and these other young guys hit free agency. If he does stay healthy and become the star we all hope he will there'll be some money coming off the books at that time for him to gobble up.

[gman]

With the Correa/Buxton deals staring the F/O in the face, they may lock some players up lock term, but they also have to heavily weigh that injury risk factor. Right now neither Buxton nor Correa look too good through the end of their contracts, especially Buxton. Maybe next year is still a little more flexible, but what happens in 2 years (if) Lee, Lewis, Kirilloff and Julian have locked up the other infield ad left field position, when everyone says shift Correa to third. He may simply not be the best option for third and Lee or Lewis may no longer be options for shortstop. Buxton isn't an option for center field right now and may not be in the future and he is not a good enough hitter for DH. Can the team really take on another long term deal for a player that can't play a position they are signed to?

[Mike Sixel]

12 hours ago, gunnarthor said:

He's 24 and under team control through his age 29 season, right? No need to lock him up. He does have some injury history. 

This. Also, he's gotten a big paycheck already, and he probably has a much better agent than what the Atlanta players have.....But it is the injuries and the fact he's their's until he's 29 that would stop me from doing this at this time. Do they need another Buxton on their hands? 

Lastly, the changing tv deals and the great unkown about revenue will likely dissuade them...

[Richie the Rally Goat]

11 hours ago, GusGus11 said:

I am aware hes under control thats the whole point of the post lol. Teams are doing early lock ups at better rates. Examples being the Braves with Albies and Acuna.

Example(made up numbers) of this for Royce

Option 1(common practice) Keep him on his current "rookie" deal through age 29 where we mostly pay him pennies compared to his value. But at 29 have to pay him his mega prime contract that could be 8 years 250 mil

Option 2(what Braves did): Pay him more short term by locking in a 8 year 100 mil contract. But you get him through a bunch of his prime. Then worry about the next contract later on.

8 years 100 mil with 2 club options to make it 12 for $124 total. Acuna signed this in 2019 at 21 and the Braves get him through 2028 his age 30 season now. 10 full seasons of control at a great rate.

So they are paying more than they needed to right away but hes theres for longer and cheaper. So when hes doing **** like hes doing this year they are ballin on a discount.

We’re talking about Royce “I’ve already had two ACL surgeries” Lewis? I can’t imagine Royce agreeing to the lowball offer that the Twins would float.

Acuna was 3 years younger, never (before the signing) had an ACL surgery, let alone 2, and was far more successful. In 2018 Acuna played in 111 games and put up 4 WAR. Lewis has played a total of 46 mlb games with two extensive injuries and good rate stats, comparable to Acuna’s 2018, but half the games over twice the seasons.

let’s see if Lewis can put up a 4 WAR 120 game season next year before locking up another hobbled player that might not last the length of the contract, let alone make it look like a good signing

[GusGus11]

2 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

I think the thing you are missing is the guys being locked up early are guys that came to the majors early (19,20,21, maybe 22)as well. Lewis didn't come up late like Ober and Ryan but the Twins already have him locked up though his prime years 26-29. It makes no sense for him (unless he is worried about more injuries) or the team to do this. Royce Lewis if healthy is going to get one shot at a FA contract and it is better for him to do that at age 29 and not the wrong side of 30.

Correct it may not be enticing enough to Royce. But on our end its something to consider trying. Maybe he sees injuries and wants the security and negoiates a good deal.

Also while Acuna did his young, its a long deal. His first season off the deal he will be 31 so thats gonna be into the 30s as well.

Although im assuming Atlanta will rework it when hes around 29 rather than using their two team options to appease him.

But you are right, Royce at 24 likley wouldnt be inclined to take a Buxton contract at 24.

[GusGus11]

25 minutes ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

We’re talking about Royce “I’ve already had two ACL surgeries” Lewis? I can’t imagine Royce agreeing to the lowball offer that the Twins would float.

Acuna was 3 years younger, never (before the signing) had an ACL surgery, let alone 2, and was far more successful. In 2018 Acuna played in 111 games and put up 4 WAR. Lewis has played a total of 46 mlb games with two extensive injuries and good rate stats, comparable to Acuna’s 2018, but half the games over twice the seasons.

let’s see if Lewis can put up a 4 WAR 120 game season next year before locking up another hobbled player that might not last the length of the contract, let alone make it look like a good signing

What you just said from the Twins stand point is exactly why you could do it.

You see what price Royce is willing for(maybe he wants to gamble on himself) but hes a real talent that can be worth the risk on the Twins end. You lock him up now and get him for cheaper.

Or you dont do it now and he rakes for 3 years and now at 27 hes wanting to negotiate to stay and 40 mil a year.

That is sports contracts. They are all a gamble. Ohtani is going to be a gamble. Pujols was a gamble for the Angels.

I'm not saying give Royce 12 years 300 mil right now. But hes definitely a talent that you see if hes willing to take a long term deal that keeps him here for 8ish years at 17ish per. Then its up to Royce

Hes older than Acuna but has more baggage injury wise, so he may be inclinded to take the same financial security even tho its 3 years older.

[DJL44]

Lewis and Duran are the only players on the roster worth having this discussion about. Right now I'd be fine with both through age 32 but not longer than that. Duran might be the higher priority this offseason.

[Mike Sixel]

5 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Lewis and Duran are the only players on the roster worth having this discussion about. Right now I'd be fine with both through age 32 but not longer than that. Duran might be the higher priority this offseason.

You want to sign a RP to a long term deal past his age 30 season?

[DJL44]

3 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

You want to sign a RP to a long term deal past his age 30 season?

Not at retail prices but Duran hasn't ever had a big payday. His signing bonus was $65,000. He goes through arbitration 2025, 2026, 2027.

Hader is the best comp, though Hader was a Super 2. Still, he made $31M over the last 3 arb years.

5 years $45M with a $15M team option (and a possible QO after that) would be a fair deal for the Twins and they might be able to do better than that. Clase only got 5 years $20M. If they go year-to-year with arbitration Duran could make $35M over the next 4 years.

[ewen21]

14 hours ago, gunnarthor said:

He's 24 and under team control through his age 29 season, right? No need to lock him up. He does have some injury history. 

Precisely.  Why do this now?  Let me be clear, I like Royce Lewis and he's done great, but has not even reached 200 plate appearances and we have to lock him up already?

[TNtwins85]

14 hours ago, GusGus11 said:

I am aware hes under control thats the whole point of the post lol. Teams are doing early lock ups at better rates. Examples being the Braves with Albies and Acuna.

Example(made up numbers) of this for Royce

Option 1(common practice) Keep him on his current "rookie" deal through age 29 where we mostly pay him pennies compared to his value. But at 29 have to pay him his mega prime contract that could be 8 years 250 mil

Option 2(what Braves did): Pay him more short term by locking in a 8 year 100 mil contract. But you get him through a bunch of his prime. Then worry about the next contract later on.

8 years 100 mil with 2 club options to make it 12 for $124 total. Acuna signed this in 2019 at 21 and the Braves get him through 2028 his age 30 season now. 10 full seasons of control at a great rate.

So they are paying more than they needed to right away but hes theres for longer and cheaper. So when hes doing **** like hes doing this year they are ballin on a discount.

I totally get what you’re saying. One of the reasons the braves are a juggernaut this year and years to come. It really eliminates just having to overload for a 2-3 year window. Allows you to trade for and sign guys like Matt Olson. A.) you have the prospects to do so since you’re not relying on them to take over a spot anytime soon. B.) the money you’ve saved on your long term signees allows you to sign your trade to a deal. Might fall on deaf ears around here though based on the terrible deals the twins have done. They did it with Polanco and Kepler though.

[GusGus11]

10 minutes ago, ewen21 said:

Precisely.  Why do this now?  Let me be clear, I like Royce Lewis and he's done great, but has not even reached 200 plate appearances and we have to lock him up already?

Well, its been stated mulptiple times

1. No one said need. There is no need.

But why lock him, to repeat because that is what you do to ensure talent sticks around at a certain rate. It doesnt NEED to be done. But locking him up now at 17 mil a year for 8 years(If Royce is willing) can be better then waiting 3 years. He stays healthy and rakes and now wants 31 mil a year for 8 more that extends into his mid 30s.

Its not rocket science why a team would do it. Its a gamble either way. So its all about what they believe his talent is and what hes willing to take. We just signed Correa to a way bigger deal with worse medicals. So lets not act like getting royce through his prime at half the cost would be some albatross haha.

[GusGus11]

1 minute ago, TNtwins85 said:

I totally get what you’re saying. One of the reasons the braves are a juggernaut this year and years to come. It really eliminates just having to overload for a 2-3 year window. Allows you to trade for and sign guys like Matt Olson. A.) you have the prospects to do so since you’re not relying on them to take over a spot anytime soon. B.) the money you’ve saved on your long term signees allows you to sign your trade to a deal. Might fall on deaf ears around here though based on the terrible deals the twins have done. They did it with Polanco and Kepler though.

100%. And this is just a discussion point anyways. Its not saying the Twins absolutely have to do it. Or that Royce would take it.

But hes the guy you look into doing it for.

People keep restating the obvious short sighted comment of "why sign him when we have him at 29 and hes had injuries". Duh. 

But the reasons for why you still could do thatis gambling on productivity of a star talent to get him at a Buxton rate early.

When hes 28 the only way to get him at a Buxton rate is if his injury history and consistency go the way of Buxton. Which wouldnt be ideal anyways.

As you said there is A LOT that signing talent like Royce early can benefit future flexibility. Contracts are a gamble at all times no matter the player, the team or the age.

[MABB1959]

I would not do this.  Wait until 2024 season end and see if he is able to stay healthy.  

[MABB1959]

Lewis would best at starting SS?  They have Correa slotted for that position but something is clearly wrong with him unless it is a simple as his good days are over?  The reason for my angst is he was passed up by SF and NY because they clearly saw injuries and maybe that is what caused this downturn and our brilliant FO doesn't want to admit they may have made a mistake?  Seems we got a pretty ugly version of CC.

[Trov]

14 hours ago, mnfireman said:

Ryan will be 31 when he hits FA and Ober 32, I don't think the team needs to worry about locking them up long term as their best years will be covered by arbitration.

Agreed 100%, and exactly why the players have had issues with that system.  We will use the prime years of these guys, then we will either trade them a year early or let them walk after arb years.