Royce long term

[Trov]

There is more to signing a guy at 1 year of MLB service time to long term deal than just locking up.  You lock yourself into known costs.  The people that think we should just wait until his arb years are done, when he is 29, you run the risk of his arb years being more than you may have planned, which means he is doing great, but still means you may have less in budget.  You can also get a year or two of FA time.  

I would agree with looking to lock him up if you can buy out a year or two of FA, but my guess he will not be on board unless it is for some bigger bucks.  I also agree, doing it now would be a larger risk to us as he has not had a full pro year his whole career. He did pretty much play full years 2018 and 2019 in minors, but outside of that he has had many injures. I do worry a little that his walk to K ratio is getting a little out of hand, but overall I love what I have seen from him. 

[Dman]

I just can't see Lewis willing to do a money saving deal for the Twins.  He has the money from being a first round draft pick and is the type of person who believes in himself and his ability.  He doesn't seem like a second guesser about his future health to me so why do a discount? That is issue number one for me.

Issue number two is that he hasn't played that long and already has an injury history with two ACL surgeries.  Call them freak or fluky or whatever but that creates more than normal risk for the team investing in the player long term.  I don't see this FO taking on that kind of risk when they can easily wait at minumum one more year to see how he holds up for a full season.  Also lot's of these deals get done just before the arb deals kick in so there is time to do this later when both sides have more info.

It just seems to early for both sides to do this IMO

[Mike Sixel]

15 minutes ago, Trov said:

There is more to signing a guy at 1 year of MLB service time to long term deal than just locking up.  You lock yourself into known costs.  The people that think we should just wait until his arb years are done, when he is 29, you run the risk of his arb years being more than you may have planned, which means he is doing great, but still means you may have less in budget.  You can also get a year or two of FA time.  

I would agree with looking to lock him up if you can buy out a year or two of FA, but my guess he will not be on board unless it is for some bigger bucks.  I also agree, doing it now would be a larger risk to us as he has not had a full pro year his whole career. He did pretty much play full years 2018 and 2019 in minors, but outside of that he has had many injures. I do worry a little that his walk to K ratio is getting a little out of hand, but overall I love what I have seen from him. 

Are you suggesting we don't understand the risk of not signing him?

He's already blown out his knee twice.....that's a huge risk for me. He's already been paid a ton of money, that's why I don't think he takes a discount. I just don't think this is happening, on either side, right now.

[TNtwins85]

32 minutes ago, MABB1959 said:

Lewis would best at starting SS?  They have Correa slotted for that position but something is clearly wrong with him unless it is a simple as his good days are over?  The reason for my angst is he was passed up by SF and NY because they clearly saw injuries and maybe that is what caused this downturn and our brilliant FO doesn't want to admit they may have made a mistake?  Seems we got a pretty ugly version of CC.

Yeah, he’s been dealing with plantar fasciitis that’s flared up throughout the season. The guy still goes out there everyday though. Plays solid defense and performs better than a lot of guys to this point. Who would you rather have had instead of him?

[Richie the Rally Goat]

32 minutes ago, GusGus11 said:

People keep restating the obvious short sighted comment of "why sign him when we have him at 29 and hes had injuries". Duh. 

But the reasons for why you still could do thatis gambling on productivity of a star talent to get him at a Buxton rate early.

When hes 28 the only way to get him at a Buxton rate is if his injury history and consistency go the way of Buxton. Which wouldnt be ideal anyways.

There is a chance that Correa has already gone the way of Buxton

isnt it also short-sighted to lockup 60 million per year for 6 years on 3 players who can’t play anymore?

part of the strategy must include attrition 

further, and it pains me to say this, but with the way Bally sports is going, the revenue part of the business plan for the majority of MLB teams is going to change, possibly reduce significantly. There may be a shift in player salaries accordingly and having too many players already locked in, could prove detrimental to the purpose of a hedge contract.

A real life example

in 2001 gas sold at retail under $2. There was a gas station in the town I went to college that sold gas on futures. When gas prices were forecasted to increase, their sales boomed. The generations older than me remembered the Iran led OPEC oil embargo of the US in the ‘70s. Prices skyrocketed when the US was in conflict with the Middle East.

When it became known that the 9/11 highjackers were middle-eastern, many people hedged buying thousands of gallons still being offered at $2 price, at the Gas station offering gas on futures contracts.

They were right, prices doubled in less than a week we were seeing $4 and $5 gas.

What could be the problem? The gas station filed for bankruptcy when they went upside down on wholesale gas becoming more expensive than the retail price they sold it at.

the hedgers bought thousands of dollars of nothing

[GusGus11]

3 minutes ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

There is a chance that Correa has already gone the way of Buxton

isnt it also short-sighted to lockup 60 million per year for 6 years on 3 players who can’t play anymore?

part of the strategy must include attrition 

further, and it pains me to say this, but with the way Bally sports is going, the revenue part of the business plan for the majority of MLB teams is going to change, possibly reduce significantly. There may be a shift in player salaries accordingly and having too many players already locked in, could prove detrimental to the purpose of a hedge contract.

A real life example

in 2001 gas sold at retail under $2. There was a gas station in the town I went to college that sold gas on futures. When gas prices were forecasted to increase, their sales boomed. The generations older than me remembered the Iran led OPEC oil embargo of the US in the ‘70s. Prices skyrocketed when the US was in conflict with the Middle East.

When it became known that the 9/11 highjackers were middle-eastern, many people hedged buying thousands of gallons still being offered at $2 price, at the Gas station offering gas on futures contracts.

They were right, prices doubled in less than a week we were seeing $4 and $5 gas.

What could be the problem? The gas station filed for bankruptcy when they went upside down on wholesale gas becoming more expensive than the retail price they sold it at.

the hedgers bought thousands of dollars of nothing

Youre right that it can work both ways instantly locking up multiple players.

I personally am of the belief, Royce willing getting him into a 17ish per deal soon would be a fantastic move. On this thread I am absolutely not saying im am definitively correct. Simply my opinion.

The short sighted part thats wild to me is a few people in here insinuating that there is zero reason to go that route. That is objectively jsut incorrect. There is definitely a very obvious reason why we could choose to lock up Royce soon and why it could end up a very good move. The debate is all about if its worth it, which is I started the thread. Thats up in the air.

But at the same time, reason why I argue for gambling on Royce is known talent. Either way as ive said we are always gambling. We blindly gave Vazquez 10 mil a year for 3 years. That guy is black hole contract right now playing 50/50 at worst with a guy thats way better and we have potnetial in minors.

We used to sign starters like Phil Hughes and Ricky Nolasco to large deals with no support. I am always of the belief that with contracts the priority should be 

1. Are they talented

2. Are they part of the org already.

Id much rather potentially overpay, potentially biff on players that you know have the talent and are part of the org.

Committing to Ricky Nolasco and Christian Vazquez is much worse to me.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

10 minutes ago, TNtwins85 said:

Yeah, he’s been dealing with plantar fasciitis that’s flared up throughout the season. The guy still goes out there everyday though. Plays solid defense and performs better than a lot of guys to this point. Who would you rather have had instead of him?

Correct, but the Market price of Carlos Correa today, is much lower than it was a year ago.

the risk with hedging is prices go down too

[GusGus11]

13 minutes ago, TNtwins85 said:

Yeah, he’s been dealing with plantar fasciitis that’s flared up throughout the season. The guy still goes out there everyday though. Plays solid defense and performs better than a lot of guys to this point. Who would you rather have had instead of him?

Seager lol.

Obviously was never going to happen though.

But to your point its why I find it funny that people are fully out on Correa. He frustrates me with some of his ABs that look like a rookie approach but hes still got a bat and plays great D with a game changing arm.

Look at other SS signed recently around him. Baez? nightmare. Story?? nightmare. Bogaerts? Regressed his first year. Swanson has been Swanson but hes always had a lower bar. Turner turning it on but regression off the bat with a LONG deal. Seager is really the only big FA one that has definitively worked and his was way more years and way more money.. 

Shorts stops aroudn the league are mostly busts. Tim Anderson? Brandon Crawford? The Guardians 8 man platoon of trash? 

Im ok with 5 more years of Correa so long as hes able to play. I think he will have a couple hot years too and the D plays.

[TwinsDr2021]

58 minutes ago, TNtwins85 said:

They did it with Polanco and Kepler though

And Polanco debuted at age 20 and Kepler 22. There is a huge difference, they bought out their prime years and couple of more. Same with Longoria(22), Franco(20), Albies (20), Acuna (20), Harris II (21), Rodrguez (21).

See a theme? There is little to no reason to sign guys that debut at an older age. Of course if Lewis would have won the rookie of the year last year and didn't miss another 80 or so games this year it could be a different story, but that didn't happen. If you bring up guys that young and don't sign them you end up losing them or trading them like Soto or Machado for example.

Lewis will turn 25 June next year and is going to have played around 100 total games. You can't compare him really any of the guys that have signed contracts.

[TNtwins85]

26 minutes ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

There is a chance that Correa has already gone the way of Buxton

isnt it also short-sighted to lockup 60 million per year for 6 years on 3 players who can’t play anymore?

part of the strategy must include attrition 

further, and it pains me to say this, but with the way Bally sports is going, the revenue part of the business plan for the majority of MLB teams is going to change, possibly reduce significantly. There may be a shift in player salaries accordingly and having too many players already locked in, could prove detrimental to the purpose of a hedge contract.

A real life example

in 2001 gas sold at retail under $2. There was a gas station in the town I went to college that sold gas on futures. When gas prices were forecasted to increase, their sales boomed. The generations older than me remembered the Iran led OPEC oil embargo of the US in the ‘70s. Prices skyrocketed when the US was in conflict with the Middle East.

When it became known that the 9/11 highjackers were middle-eastern, many people hedged buying thousands of gallons still being offered at $2 price, at the Gas station offering gas on futures contracts.

They were right, prices doubled in less than a week we were seeing $4 and $5 gas.

What could be the problem? The gas station filed for bankruptcy when they went upside down on wholesale gas becoming more expensive than the retail price they sold it at.

the hedgers bought thousands of dollars of nothing

But this was already looking to be a problem even when they signed Correa. So are you saying that the twins ownership and front office is so inept that even they never seen the ballys situation coming and decided to sign a player to a $200M contract even though it may jeopardize the business as a whole? 

[TNtwins85]

15 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

And Polanco debuted at age 20 and Kepler 22. There is a huge difference, they bought out their prime years and couple of more. Same with Longoria(22), Franco(20), Albies (20), Acuna (20), Harris II (21), Rodrguez (21).

See a theme? There is little to no reason to sign guys that debut at an older age. Of course if Lewis would have won the rookie of the year last year and didn't miss another 80 or so games this year it could be a different story, but that didn't happen. If you bring up guys that young and don't sign them you end up losing them or trading them like Soto or Machado for example.

Lewis will turn 25 June next year and is going to have played around 100 total games. You can't compare him really any of the guys that have signed contracts.

True. I get your point but in the same sense the contract not only locks your player in for a given number of years but also presents his value for those same years as well. That knowledge allows you to know that even if Lewis plays out of his mind next year and wins MVP we still know what he’s gonna be making the next X number of years. It provides you 2 benefits. 

[GusGus11]

17 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

And Polanco debuted at age 20 and Kepler 22. There is a huge difference, they bought out their prime years and couple of more. Same with Longoria(22), Franco(20), Albies (20), Acuna (20), Harris II (21), Rodrguez (21).

See a theme? There is little to no reason to sign guys that debut at an older age. Of course if Lewis would have won the rookie of the year last year and didn't miss another 80 or so games this year it could be a different story, but that didn't happen. If you bring up guys that young and don't sign them you end up losing them or trading them like Soto or Machado for example.

Lewis will turn 25 June next year and is going to have played around 100 total games. You can't compare him really any of the guys that have signed contracts.

But see, to devils advocate Royce and his injuries.

You can make a very good argument that his knee injuries are more of a long term worry. Of course right now we would be gambling that continous things like the oblique or random hamstrings and groin pulls dont happen because injuries are who he is.

BUT if you look at the two major knee injuries. Right now Royce Lewis is still fast, hes still agile, hes still mobile. Hes got power through out his body upper and lower. The major injuries hes had are ones that are likely to cause him to breakdown earlier than the average player(cause all break down) kinda like Correa

So hypothetically(again this is all hypothetically and from a Twins stand point ignoring Royces side). We could offer him a deal tomorrow that gives him like 17 mil a year until hes into his 30. He takes for his reasons. We got him locked up through his prime years.

Or we could wait until hes 28/29. He proves to be productive adn stays on the field and at that point we give him the usual 7-10 year deal at huge dollars players get. But now a guy with 2 knee injuries is undercontract from 34-37 years old with knees that are probably jelly at that point.

As Ive said in other posts, its just my opinion and what I would do. I completely understand if someone would rather wait out until its absolutely needed. But I think there is much more than "little reason" to do it sooner.

Royce current injury history has me much more worried about the years wed be paying for when we pay him at 29 then what we pay him for cheaper now.

[TwinsDr2021]

2 minutes ago, TNtwins85 said:

True. I get your point but in the same sense the contract not only locks your player in for a given number of years but also presents his value for those same years as well. That knowledge allows you to know that even if Lewis plays out of his mind next year and wins MVP we still know what he’s gonna be making the next X number of years. It provides you 2 benefits. 

If this FO can't figure out or plan for what Lewis is going to make though his controllable years they don't deserve the job they have.

[2wins87]

17 hours ago, GusGus11 said:

Something that is becoming very common now days is teams(Braves specifically) locking up their young talent right away with long deals at a lower rate then they would be in their prime by paying them now.

This is a move I doubt we do, but we really should. Pay more money now when hes young to get him on a long great deal and dont worry about having to do anything when hes 27/28.

This guy is a special talent. Pray for good health going forward.

None of the Braves guys (Acuna, Albies, Riley, Strider) were repped by Boras.  Ultimately up to Lewis if he wants to sign a big extension or try for a bigger post arbitration FA deal, but I think the representation makes a big difference, and Boras very much likes negotiating in the open market.

[2wins87]

17 hours ago, GusGus11 said:

Something that is becoming very common now days is teams(Braves specifically) locking up their young talent right away with long deals at a lower rate then they would be in their prime by paying them now.

This is a move I doubt we do, but we really should. Pay more money now when hes young to get him on a long great deal and dont worry about having to do anything when hes 27/28.

This guy is a special talent. Pray for good health going forward.

None of the Braves guys (Acuna, Albies, Riley, Strider) were repped by Boras.  Ultimately up to Lewis if he wants to sign a big extension or try for a bigger post arbitration FA deal, but I think the representation makes a big difference, and Boras very much likes negotiating in the open market.

[GusGus11]

3 minutes ago, 2wins87 said:

None of the Braves guys (Acuna, Albies, Riley, Strider) were repped by Boras.  Ultimately up to Lewis if he wants to sign a big extension or try for a bigger post arbitration FA deal, but I think the representation makes a big difference, and Boras very much likes negotiating in the open market.

Excellent point. And very probable Boras would go that route.

What I should have made more clear in my OP is this discussion is simply from a Twins stand point. Basically me saying I think the team should be looking to try to do it. 

And wanting opinions of those on this board what they would do if they were Gm. How much, right now? Wait til last minute? Give it 1 or 2 years.

Basically operating under the assumption that whatever deal makes sense is what Boras/Lewis would agree to.

So like my stance is right now I would would love locking him up at an Acuna like rate.

If the twins tried to do that and royce said no he wants 10 years 300 mil right now. I would not be mad at them for saying "nahhh we are gonna wait"

But I am of the opinion we should try something soon within the next year at the latest. And would be really disappointed if we never tried and just let him fleece us at 29.

 

[TNtwins85]

8 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

If this FO can't figure out or plan for what Lewis is going to make though his controllable years they don't deserve the job they have.

Really??? There’s never been a player that surprises people for better or worse and a FO is supposed to be able to know that? In baseball we’re talking here. That’s a pretty wild statement.

[terrydactyls]

17 hours ago, RpR said:

Ah la Sano, Rooker...?

Never a positive response.

[TwinsDr2021]

12 minutes ago, GusGus11 said:

So hypothetically(again this is all hypothetically and from a Twins stand point ignoring Royces side). We could offer him a deal tomorrow that gives him like 17 mil a year until hes into his 30. He takes for his reasons. We got him locked up through his prime years.

Unless I am missing something the Twins have him for next 5 years at something like 1 million, 3, million, and lets say 6, 12 , 18.

Which would be 5 for 40, but lets say it is 5 for 60 worst case and you want to give him 6 for 102 or 7 for 119. Which really means the Twins are paying him around 40 million a year 6 or 30 a year for years 6 or 7. So of course Lewis would take that. But why in the world would the Twins pay him that? 

[RpR]

8 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

Never a positive response.

On this site , no reason too, personal negativity of the player currently tied to the kicking post,  rules most posts.

Of there is the infatuation with rookies, who are adored as the future of the club and veterans should be dumped without any proof that will happen.

Ah la Sano, Rooker, Hicks etc. , etc., etc.

[TwinsDr2021]

10 minutes ago, TNtwins85 said:

Really??? There’s never been a player that surprises people for better or worse and a FO is supposed to be able to know that? In baseball we’re talking here. That’s a pretty wild statement.

Well he has two pre-arb years left, so that should be pretty easy to figure out. Then he has 3 arb years, which also shouldn't be that difficult to figure out because history basically determines those numbers so they should at least be able to ball park that.

For example Shane Bieber got 10 million in arb year two after winning a Cy Young, being in the top 7 two other times and a top 4 MVP. Juan Soto got 23 in arb year three top 1o MVP finishes.

[terrydactyls]

8 minutes ago, RpR said:

On this site , no reason too, personal negativity of the player currently tied to the kicking post,  rules most posts.

Huh?  Didn't understand any of that.

[GusGus11]

7 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Unless I am missing something the Twins have him for next 5 years at something like 1 million, 3, million, and lets say 6, 12 , 18.

Which would be 5 for 40, but lets say it is 5 for 60 worst case and you want to give him 6 for 102 or 7 for 119. Which really means the Twins are paying him around 40 million a year 6 or 30 a year for years 6 or 7. So of course Lewis would take that. But why in the world would the Twins pay him that? 

I said into his 30s not when hes 30. If you give him the deal now you dont just overpay yearly for 1 more year haha.

You do it like the Acuna one and see if Royce due to his injuries wants that same security but at a later age.

Paying him 17ish per year through age 32 is a great risk and avoids having to do any sort of performance based arb that could raise his pennies cost currently and also avoids having to negotiate with a 29 year old under no contract that is ready to get paid with a big deal finally into his mid 30s at earliest with knees that wont last.

Lockin him up now lets us acess where hes at into his 30s and through most of his prime.

Again, its cool if you wouldnt. But there is a very clear world where that would work wonderfully. Or it could fail. Same way waiting could.

[TopGunn#22]

Yeah, I was fine with and understood all the comments until RpR.  

I wouldn't mind locking some of our young talent up.  But as has been pointed out, Lewis is much older than the Braves young stars or Franco of T-Bay.  I think guys like Walker Jenkins, Lee and maybe Rodriguez will fall into this category if they show superstar potential.  Lewis and Kirilloff, due to their injuries, have missed this bus.  

[Richie the Rally Goat]

1 hour ago, TNtwins85 said:

But this was already looking to be a problem even when they signed Correa. So are you saying that the twins ownership and front office is so inept that even they never seen the ballys situation coming and decided to sign a player to a $200M contract even though it may jeopardize the business as a whole? 

Their contract with Bally was always scheduled to end after this season. Diamond Sports/Bally bankruptcy wasn’t public (at least for us) until a couple weeks after the Twins signed Correa on his vastly reduced contract. (Jan 11 Correa contract, Jan 25 Bally).

there’s more at stake for the league and the market with the bankruptcy. It removes a lot of leverage from the new broadcast rights negotiation when the incumbent is bankrupt.

it removed a lot of leverage when dozens of teams will begin the same negotiation within a year or so.

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

If this FO can't figure out or plan for what Lewis is going to make though his controllable years they don't deserve the job they have.

They can figure out general high and low ends, but those high and low ends can be 10 million apart. Now if they have no plans to sign anyone else to deals that last through his arb years that doesn't really matter. But I'd hope that is an option they keep on the table for the right situation. In that case that 10 million is a pretty substantial gap.

[GusGus11]

36 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

Yeah, I was fine with and understood all the comments until RpR.

I wouldn't mind locking some of our young talent up.  But as has been pointed out, Lewis is much older than the Braves young stars or Franco of T-Bay.  I think guys like Walker Jenkins, Lee and maybe Rodriguez will fall into this category if they show superstar potential.  Lewis and Kirilloff, due to their injuries, have missed this bus.  

Funny you mention AK, because I was actually gonna add him to this convo when giving my opinion on why Id be ok paying Royce ASAP.

I am a HUGE AK. I have a long time Twins buddy that I have kept in contact with from a different sports message board many years back. We text all the time how much we love him and that as an all around hitter hes the best of the bunch.

But hes one I absolutely would not try to do any early deal with. Because

1. Hes almost 2 years older than Royce

2. While his all around plate coverage, use of all fields and OBP ability is impressive. Royce with the known power and all around talent has a higher ceiling

3. The main thing. His big injuries unlike Royce's worry me immediately. I mentioned how I think Royce knee injuries in a vaccuum are more concering for 33 year old Royce than 26 year old Royce. Hes still fast and athletic now and they dont impact his hitting currently.

AKs wrist injury from everything I read was nearly a career ender and directly impacts his hitting ability. Im glad its been fine this year *knock on wood* but having a wrist injury that nearly ruined your career by 25 is not a good thing. Now hes dealing with a shoulder problem which agian theres optimism hes close to returning. But already having shoulder and major wrist issues before your prime is scary.

I look at Kirilloffs injuries as much more ominous than Royce. I'm willing to roll the dice with Royce.

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, 2wins87 said:

None of the Braves guys (Acuna, Albies, Riley, Strider) were repped by Boras.  Ultimately up to Lewis if he wants to sign a big extension or try for a bigger post arbitration FA deal, but I think the representation makes a big difference, and Boras very much likes negotiating in the open market.

Boras client Carlos Gonzalez signed a 7 year, $80 million deal when he was still pre-arb with the Rockies. Sticking with the Carlos theme, Gomez was a Boras client who also signed away free agent years before he hit the market. Jered Weaver. Elvis Andrus. Stephen Strasburg. Jose Altuve. Xander Bogaerts. All Boras clients who signed before they hit the open market. Like you said, it's all about what Lewis wants. I highly doubt Boras would advise Lewis to sign after this year, but within the next 2 or 3? Not out of the realm of possibility at all.

[MABB1959]

3 hours ago, TNtwins85 said:

Yeah, he’s been dealing with plantar fasciitis that’s flared up throughout the season. The guy still goes out there everyday though. Plays solid defense and performs better than a lot of guys to this point. Who would you rather have had instead of him?

I don’t know that he performs “better than a lot of the guys”.  I was thrilled when they signed him the first time.  This time not so much because of the optics he would rather play for a different team and we were kind of like a last resort.   But was expecting WAY more out of him.  In today’s line up he has the 2nd lowest BA only Gallo is lower.  

[TNtwins85]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

They can figure out general high and low ends, but those high and low ends can be 10 million apart. Now if they have no plans to sign anyone else to deals that last through his arb years that doesn't really matter. But I'd hope that is an option they keep on the table for the right situation. In that case that 10 million is a pretty substantial gap.

Exactly! If you sign him to 15M a year for the next 6 years now you know what he’s making for the next 6 years. If he has a couple huge seasons all of a sudden his arbitration number jumps into the high teens  or twenties. If he’s just solid maybe he only gets to 16M his last year. All that said locking him up pre determines the number.