Did the Twins Trade for the Right Marlins Starter?

[stringer bell]

The Marlins had several options from among their starters when the Twins came looking for a trade partner in the Luis Arraez deal. Or maybe it's the other way around--the Marlins were willing to give up one of their starters in pursuit of Arraez. Regardless, there were rumors that the Marlins trade a starting pitcher for Arraez. The deal happened and the Twins got Pablo López. 

We all know Arraez has thrived with the Marlins. He's winning the batting championship in a walk, currently hitting .375 and he's stayed on the field and performed acceptably as a second baseman. That said, the Twins could be satisfied if they got a starting pitcher to front their rotation for the rest of the decade. Did they do that? We won't know until Pablo López completes his time with the Twins, but the results have been promising. 

López is on course to set career highs in innings, strikeouts and WHIP with no indications of tiring or injuries. The ERA is quite a bit higher than his FIP indicating he might have been a bit unlucky in run prevention. He has signed an extension through 2027, which will be his age 31 season. He seems to have fit in with the Twins very well.

Miami had uber-prospect Eury Pérez, who was probably not available and reigning Cy Young Sandy Alcantara, who again probably wasn't available or would require much more than Luis Arraez. Jesus Luzado has similar numbers to López this season and is younger, but would he have agreed to an extension? 

Now, more than ever, I think this is a classic win-win trade for both teams. It will depend on the health of the principals, but the addition of Pablo López has helped the Twins as much or more than the loss of Luis Arraez. The Marlins got a great singles hitter, the Twins got a top rotation starter. 

 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

22 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

The Marlins had several options from among their starters when the Twins came looking for a trade partner in the Luis Arraez deal. Or maybe it's the other way around--the Marlins were willing to give up one of their starters in pursuit of Arraez. Regardless, there were rumors that the Marlins trade a starting pitcher for Arraez. The deal happened and the Twins got Pablo López. 

We all know Arraez has thrived with the Marlins. He's winning the batting championship in a walk, currently hitting .375 and he's stayed on the field and performed acceptably as a second baseman. That said, the Twins could be satisfied if they got a starting pitcher to front their rotation for the rest of the decade. Did they do that? We won't know until Pablo López completes his time with the Twins, but the results have been promising. 

López is on course to set career highs in innings, strikeouts and WHIP with no indications of tiring or injuries. The ERA is quite a bit higher than his FIP indicating he might have been a bit unlucky in run prevention. He has signed an extension through 2027, which will be his age 31 season. He seems to have fit in with the Twins very well.

Miami had uber-prospect Eury Pérez, who was probably not available and reigning Cy Young Sandy Alcantara, who again probably wasn't available or would require much more than Luis Arraez. Jesus Luzado has similar numbers to López this season and is younger, but would he have agreed to an extension? 

Now, more than ever, I think this is a classic win-win trade for both teams. It will depend on the health of the principals, but the addition of Pablo López has helped the Twins as much or more than the loss of Luis Arraez. The Marlins got a great singles hitter, the Twins got a top rotation starter. 

 

Its been a win-win,  currently Lopez is at 2.3 WAR,  and Arreaz at 4.4 WAR.  

Arreaz is continuing his usual late season fade.   His current OPS of august is .621 and his July was .847.  Luis had a .438 BA for April and .406 for June- currently at .276 for the 7 games in August.   I have stated the most likely outcome is that their WAR's become fairly close by the end of the year. 

The marlins valued Luzardo Perez, and Alcantara more than Lopez.  Both have effectively outperformed expectations.  The fact Lopez signed a reasonable extension with the Twins is what likely made this a win overall for the Twins.  Arreaz appears willing to test free agency and after this year is only 2 years away.   

More than anything I think Arraez benefitted from 2 things.  The first being his work out regime with Nelson Cruz is huge.  He comes out of the start of the season like a beast.  He has done this for the last 3-4 seasons.   Secondly the change to the NL where teams didn't have as much experience with him I think was greatly advantageous.  It is similar to the affect to Rogers going to San Diego.  He had lots of success early,  then due to overuse and teams becoming more familiar he declined rapidly.  Arraez is a very good hitter, but the overperformance so far has occurred early in the season.  If I were a team I would let him play to the ALL Star break,  give him a month off to restart his work out regimen with Cruz and see if he can finish the season off strong.   

My gut feel is Minnesota will get much more WAR from Lopez than Arraez with the Marlins.  It will be interesting to watch both players.  This also doesn't include the fact that the Twins look like they may be able to replace Arraez production with similar if not higher slugging from Julien.  

[stringer bell]

3 minutes ago, IA Bean Counter said:

Its been a win-win,  currently Lopez is at 2.3 WAR,  and Arreaz at 4.4 WAR.  

Arreaz is continuing his usual late season fade.   His current OPS of august is .621 and his July was .847.  Luis had a .438 BA for April and .406 for June- currently at .276 for the 7 games in August.   I have stated the most likely outcome is that their WAR's become fairly close by the end of the year. 

The marlins valued Luzardo Perez, and Alcantara more than Lopez.  Both have effectively outperformed expectations.  The fact Lopez signed a reasonable extension with the Twins is what likely made this a win overall for the Twins.  Arreaz appears willing to test free agency and after this year is only 2 years away.   

More than anything I think Arraez benefitted from 2 things.  The first being his work out regime with Nelson Cruz is huge.  He comes out of the start of the season like a beast.  He has done this for the last 3-4 seasons.   Secondly the change to the NL where teams didn't have as much experience with him I think was greatly advantageous.  It is similar to the affect to Rogers going to San Diego.  He had lots of success early,  then due to overuse and teams becoming more familiar he declined rapidly.  Arraez is a very good hitter, but the overperformance so far has occurred early in the season.  If I were a team I would let him play to the ALL Star break,  give him a month off to restart his work out regimen with Cruz and see if he can finish the season off strong.   

My gut feel is Minnesota will get much more WAR from Lopez than Arraez with the Marlins.  It will be interesting to watch both players.  

Through almost three quarters of a season, 2 WAR is a lot to make up. That said, I think WAR for pitchers is arbitrary (more so than position players) and López' overall value is understated by the WAR number.

[USAFChief]

"If I were a team I would let him play to the ALL Star break,  give him a month off to restart his work out regimen with Cruz and see if he can finish the season off strong." 

 

Wut??

[Dman]

It is way early to compare the two and an injury to either one changes the outcome considerably, but yes given where we are right now today this is a trade that has worked out well for both teams.  Twins really needed a long term front of the rotation starter and looking at the farm right now they really, really needed one.

I was worried they might have gotten the wrong guy but Pablo is such an awesome person\player it makes me wonder what I was thinking.  I kind of thought Luzardo was the way to go but it seemed the Marlins were less inclined to move him.  They really seemed to be pushing Lopez or the Twins were only interested in Lopez because that name seemed pretty exclusive throughout the process. 

I was worried about this deal for a while but am back to being happy about it.

[Muppet]

Hard to say if the Twins 'won' this trade. Arraez was underappreciated as a Twin. His hit tool was never good enough for many of us. If he were on THIS year's Twins, he might have helped a little, but most games would have been lost anyway as there would never have been anyone on base for him to drive in, or he would have been left on base by Gallo, Buxton, Kepler, et al. as they struck out with him waiting on 2nd. 

With a Winder or Varland filling that last rotation spot if we didn't have Lopez, we might have lost 4-5 more games than we have. I'm not digging into the stats right now, but I'm going to guess that most games won where Lopez pitched were only wone by a run or two. 

At the end, if Arraez keeps up this pace for his career, he'll end up in the Hall of Fame. Lopez will end up in the Hall of Very Good.

[jorgenswest]

1 hour ago, stringer bell said:

Through almost three quarters of a season, 2 WAR is a lot to make up. That said, I think WAR for pitchers is arbitrary (more so than position players) and López' overall value is understated by the WAR number.

Pretty easy to make up…

Head over to Fangraphs WAR and Lopez is up 3.3 to 3.2.

Lopez ranks 8 among starting pitchers.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

1 hour ago, stringer bell said:

Through almost three quarters of a season, 2 WAR is a lot to make up. That said, I think WAR for pitchers is arbitrary (more so than position players) and López' overall value is understated by the WAR number.

If Arraez is a negative WAR or a 0 war player the remainder of the year (based on his previous history of waning significantly at the end of the season),  and Lopez gains another 1 point WAR I would deem that close.    However I fully get your point.   You also have Jorgenwest showing that Lopez and Arraez are equal values.   Add in pitching is always more costly than hitting.  I just hope Lopez continues to pitch as well as he has recently.  

[Seth Stohs]

2 hours ago, stringer bell said:

The Marlins had several options from among their starters when the Twins came looking for a trade partner in the Luis Arraez deal. Or maybe it's the other way around--the Marlins were willing to give up one of their starters in pursuit of Arraez. Regardless, there were rumors that the Marlins trade a starting pitcher for Arraez. The deal happened and the Twins got Pablo López. 

We all know Arraez has thrived with the Marlins. He's winning the batting championship in a walk, currently hitting .375 and he's stayed on the field and performed acceptably as a second baseman. That said, the Twins could be satisfied if they got a starting pitcher to front their rotation for the rest of the decade. Did they do that? We won't know until Pablo López completes his time with the Twins, but the results have been promising. 

López is on course to set career highs in innings, strikeouts and WHIP with no indications of tiring or injuries. The ERA is quite a bit higher than his FIP indicating he might have been a bit unlucky in run prevention. He has signed an extension through 2027, which will be his age 31 season. He seems to have fit in with the Twins very well.

Miami had uber-prospect Eury Pérez, who was probably not available and reigning Cy Young Sandy Alcantara, who again probably wasn't available or would require much more than Luis Arraez. Jesus Luzado has similar numbers to López this season and is younger, but would he have agreed to an extension? 

Now, more than ever, I think this is a classic win-win trade for both teams. It will depend on the health of the principals, but the addition of Pablo López has helped the Twins as much or more than the loss of Luis Arraez. The Marlins got a great singles hitter, the Twins got a top rotation starter. 

 

I would have loved to see the Twins get Max Meyer, but he had Tommy John last year at this time. But I think Pablo was the right guy. Young. great intangibles (from what he read and hear). Willing to sign the extension. Miami had just traded for Lazardo near last year's deadline and gave up a bunch, so they may not have wanted to deal him. Perez and Alcantara were definitely not available. They have a ton of pitching prospects that would have been good in a year or so too. 

 

[jaimedude]

In the long run I think so. I think with Lopez we will see someone who will continue to pitch well for the Twins at the top of the rotation. It was a good fit for both teams, as much as I like Arreaz we really needed an innings eater and top of the rotation guy.

[tony&rodney]

The Twins and Marlins were pretty specific about their needs and wants. I don't believe Miami was willing to discuss anyone but Luis Arraez and only offered Pablo Lopez. Salas and Chourio were added to convince the Twins to complete the trade. It has been positive for both teams, a fair trade.

Hey, maybe the Twins can make a similar trade with Seattle in the offseason.

[Doctor Wu]

I liked the trade at the time and I still like it, even though Arraez will probably win another batting title. That said, I recall a lot of worries among some posters about Arraez's durability and which position he would end up playing. But hey, if he's still hitting well and hasn't had any serious injuries this year, so I'm sure Miami is very happy with the trade. Both players seem like good guys and I hope they both continue to thrive on their new teams. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

17 hours ago, IA Bean Counter said:

Its been a win-win,  currently Lopez is at 2.3 WAR,  and Arreaz at 4.4 WAR.

I think FanGraphs' WAR is a little better at valuing the things a pitcher can control and Arraez and Lopez are in a virtual lock there with 3.2 and 3.3 fWAR. And that checks out with Lopez, particularly if you look at his gaudy baseball savant page below.

It was a good trade. I like both players a lot. I hope everyone does well.

[Woof Bronzer]

17 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

Pretty easy to make up…

Head over to Fangraphs WAR and Lopez is up 3.3 to 3.2.

So one WAR has Arraez as twice as valuable as Lopez, the other has Lopez slightly more valuable than Arraez?  I appreciate what WAR tries to do but I don't think it's helpful when they tell drastically different stories.  

[USAFChief]

39 minutes ago, Woof Bronzer said:

So one WAR has Arraez as twice as valuable as Lopez, the other has Lopez slightly more valuable than Arraez?  I appreciate what WAR tries to do but I don't think it's helpful when they tell drastically different stories.  

I don't like WAR at all, but IMO fWAR for pitchers is particularly bad.

Fangraphs uses what they think should have happened for a pitcher, rather than any measure of what actually did happen. They do this by using FIP. They only consider HRs, BBs, Ks, and HBPs. 

Theoretically a pitcher could give up a base hit on every ball in play, but if there were no HRs, BBs, or HBPs fWAR would love him. If he managed to accumulate enough innings, he could lead the league in fWAR by giving up 6 hits and 3 runs per inning with 3 Ks mixed in.

bWAR for pitchers uses RA/9 as its base measurement.

For position players the primary difference between the two is what they use to measure defense. 

 

IMO there are huge issues with both WARs. Here's a decent explanation of both.

 

https://www.samford.edu/sports-analytics/fans/2023/Sabermetrics-101-Understanding-the-Calculation-of-WAR#:~:text=Fangraphs allocates 570 WAR for,game compared to Baseball-Reference.

[Brandon]

Arreaz for Lopez has been an even trade.  It would be nice if one of the prospects acquired in the deal makes this a great deal for us.  Say Salas comes up and hits .300 with 60XBH and 15 steals a season for 6 seasons….

[CRF]

I didn't have a problem with the trade when it happened...and I don't now. Classic win/win trade. If a couple of our underperforming regulars would be hitting to their capabilities, then we wouldn't miss Arraez at all. Lopez has been very solid overall. 

[stringer bell]

When I posted this, my thought was about whether the Twins could have gotten a different Miami starting pitcher who would work out better. Barring injury, I think they got the right guy. 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I have no problem with Lopez, but instead of Arraez, maybe they should have traded Lewis or Lee. They might have gotten some better additional pieces that way. 

Julien is a great hitter in the making, but no, Julien is not on Arraez’s level. Arraez has been at this for years, while Julien hasn’t had his proverbial second trip through the league yet. 

[old nurse]

1n maybe 5 years the evenness of the trade can be determined. Lopez maintains for the length of the contract and Arraez leaves Miami as a free agent, the Twins win. Salas or Churrio develop, Twins win. 

WAR arguments. The limitations really is that WAR is not a very precise tool. Defensive WAR is a guess. RA/9 is in part determined by how good your fielders are. Defense must matter as is is part of position player WAR. It probably is not accurate to assume defensive war by team is equal. Yet you can’t ignore it, either whip has some value.. The fangraph’s glossary : WAR is not meant to be a perfectly precise indicator of a player’s contribution, but rather an estimate of their value to date. Given the imperfections of some of the available data and the assumptions made to calculate other components, WAR works best as an approximation. The imprecision may have a point of normalization, but it might take 1000 games played 

[Riverbrian]

14 hours ago, stringer bell said:

When I posted this, my thought was about whether the Twins could have gotten a different Miami starting pitcher who would work out better. Barring injury, I think they got the right guy. 

Don't forget the Salas and Chourio part of the equation. 

The inclusion of those two in the trade suggests that the Marlins may have been the pursuer in the trade. 

A different pitcher included in the trade and perhaps the Twins are giving up a prospect. 

 

[wabene]

To the OP, I'm very happy with Pablo and even happier with the extension.

Just a thought, when evaluating a trade, wouldn't it be best to just judge it at the time of the trade? What happens later is impacted by many factors including luck and can not be known at the time of the trade. In some ways the final outcome of the trade is out of the realm of control of those that made the trade. Then you have Pablo's extension, should that be factored in? It is interesting to keep track of these trades over time, but maybe judging the trader based on things out of their control is unwise. Just look at AJ Pierzinski who became Francisco Liriano (and Joe Nathan and Boof B!) who became Eduardo Escobar who became Jhoan Duran. As AJ said recently on a podcast, he is the gift that keeps on giving to the Twins. If you are going to judge a trade on final outcomes, the AJ trade is still not decided after the player that forced that trade enters the Twins Hall of Fame, lol. 

[Riverbrian]

24 minutes ago, wabene said:

To the OP, I'm very happy with Pablo and even happier with the extension.

Just a thought, when evaluating a trade, wouldn't it be best to just judge it at the time of the trade? What happens later is impacted by many factors including luck and can not be known at the time of the trade. In some ways the final outcome of the trade is out of the realm of control of those that made the trade. Then you have Pablo's extension, should that be factored in? It is interesting to keep track of these trades over time, but maybe judging the trader based on things out of their control is unwise. Just look at AJ Pierzinski who became Francisco Liriano (and Joe Nathan and Boof B!) who became Eduardo Escobar who became Jhoan Duran. As AJ said recently on a podcast, he is the gift that keeps on giving to the Twins. If you are going to judge a trade on final outcomes, the AJ trade is still not decided after the player that forced that trade enters the Twins Hall of Fame, lol. 

Good post.

I have always believed that trades are pretty damn equal at the time of the trade. It's really hard to win a trade a day after the trade is made. 

What happens after determines the winners and losers. 

If you want to win a trade... you need to work with the players you acquire to make them better. That usually takes time. 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

On 8/10/2023 at 7:46 AM, wabene said:

To the OP, I'm very happy with Pablo and even happier with the extension.

Just a thought, when evaluating a trade, wouldn't it be best to just judge it at the time of the trade? What happens later is impacted by many factors including luck and can not be known at the time of the trade. In some ways the final outcome of the trade is out of the realm of control of those that made the trade. Then you have Pablo's extension, should that be factored in? It is interesting to keep track of these trades over time, but maybe judging the trader based on things out of their control is unwise. Just look at AJ Pierzinski who became Francisco Liriano (and Joe Nathan and Boof B!) who became Eduardo Escobar who became Jhoan Duran. As AJ said recently on a podcast, he is the gift that keeps on giving to the Twins. If you are going to judge a trade on final outcomes, the AJ trade is still not decided after the player that forced that trade enters the Twins Hall of Fame, lol. 

The extension is a big part of this deal.  Arraez representation told the front office they were not interested in an extension.  Whether Pablo let it known before the trade he would consider an extension or not, I don't know.  However he signed an extension very early in the season telling me a lot of leg work had gone into it.   

I love Arreaz,  but part of our previous history of fading at the end of the year had to do with Arraez. Here is Arraez splits.  Arraez OPS + is 76 for August.   His Batting average is .260 and that is in 50 plate appearances.   As long as Lopez stays healthy the Twins win the trade due to the extension.  

Split	G	GS	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	TB	GDP	HBP	SH	SF	IBB	ROE	BAbip	tOPS+	sOPS+
April/March	25	23	102	89	12	39	5	1	1	11	1	1	11	5	.438	.500	.551	1.051	49	2	1	0	1	3	0	.452	140	192
May	26	25	108	100	7	33	6	0	0	9	0	1	7	5	.330	.380	.390	.770	39	8	1	0	0	2	1	.347	76	113
June	26	26	116	106	17	43	5	0	2	19	0	0	7	7	.406	.448	.509	.958	54	2	2	0	1	3	1	.418	118	165
July	24	23	104	96	7	34	8	1	0	12	0	0	6	7	.354	.388	.458	.847	44	1	0	1	1	0	0	.378	93	130
August	12	11	50	50	6	13	2	1	1	6	0	0	0	4	.260	.260	.400	.660	20	2	0	0	0	0	0	.267	49	76

[wabene]

3 minutes ago, IA Bean Counter said:

The extension is a big part of this deal.  Arraez representation told the front office they were not interested in an extension.  Whether Pablo let it known before the trade he would consider an extension or not, I don't know.  However he signed an extension very early in the season telling me a lot of leg work had gone into it.   

I love Arreaz,  but part of our previous history of fading at the end of the year had to do with Arraez. Here is Arraez splits.  Arraez OPS + is 76 for August.   His Batting average is .260 and that is in 50 plate appearances.   As long as Lopez stays healthy the Twins win the trade due to the extension.  

Split	G	GS	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	TB	GDP	HBP	SH	SF	IBB	ROE	BAbip	tOPS+	sOPS+
April/March	25	23	102	89	12	39	5	1	1	11	1	1	11	5	.438	.500	.551	1.051	49	2	1	0	1	3	0	.452	140	192
May	26	25	108	100	7	33	6	0	0	9	0	1	7	5	.330	.380	.390	.770	39	8	1	0	0	2	1	.347	76	113
June	26	26	116	106	17	43	5	0	2	19	0	0	7	7	.406	.448	.509	.958	54	2	2	0	1	3	1	.418	118	165
July	24	23	104	96	7	34	8	1	0	12	0	0	6	7	.354	.388	.458	.847	44	1	0	1	1	0	0	.378	93	130
August	12	11	50	50	6	13	2	1	1	6	0	0	0	4	.260	.260	.400	.660	20	2	0	0	0	0	0	.267	49	76

Yes anything that is known at the time of the trade should be factored in. 

[USAFChief]

2 hours ago, IA Bean Counter said:

(1) Arraez representation told the front office they were not interested in an extension. 

(2) Here is Arraez splits.  Arraez OPS + is 76 for August.   His Batting average is .260 and that is in 50 plate appearances.  

Split	G	GS	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	TB	GDP	HBP	SH	SF	IBB	ROE	BAbip	tOPS+	sOPS+
April/March	25	23	102	89	12	39	5	1	1	11	1	1	11	5	.438	.500	.551	1.051	49	2	1	0	1	3	0	.452	140	192
May	26	25	108	100	7	33	6	0	0	9	0	1	7	5	.330	.380	.390	.770	39	8	1	0	0	2	1	.347	76	113
June	26	26	116	106	17	43	5	0	2	19	0	0	7	7	.406	.448	.509	.958	54	2	2	0	1	3	1	.418	118	165
July	24	23	104	96	7	34	8	1	0	12	0	0	6	7	.354	.388	.458	.847	44	1	0	1	1	0	0	.378	93	130
August	12	11	50	50	6	13	2	1	1	6	0	0	0	4	.260	.260	.400	.660	20	2	0	0	0	0	0	.267	49	76

I. Link?

2. Arraez August production for the Marlins is "a big reason for the Twins previous fades?"

 

"I'm not sure I agree with you a hundred percent on your police work there, Lou."

 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

On 8/9/2023 at 9:53 AM, Woof Bronzer said:

So one WAR has Arraez as twice as valuable as Lopez, the other has Lopez slightly more valuable than Arraez?  I appreciate what WAR tries to do but I don't think it's helpful when they tell drastically different stories.  

The two sites measure WAR differently. Think Metric system vs Imperial. I’m me tall, whether you measure me at 5’10” or 178 cm. Agreed, we can’t compare bWAR to fWAR, however this does give us an idea of the differences in how teams measure players value/performance differently. 

[4twinsJA]

I liked Arraez/Lopez trade, winner for both teams. Better question is did Twins trade for the right Reds pitcher? 

[Woof Bronzer]

1 hour ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

The two sites measure WAR differently. Think Metric system vs Imperial. I’m me tall, whether you measure me at 5’10” or 178 cm. Agreed, we can’t compare bWAR to fWAR, however this does give us an idea of the differences in how teams measure players value/performance differently. 

I don't think this works as an analogy as it would mean, in the context of the Arraez/Lopez discrepancy, that you are much taller than me when using metric, but I'm slightly taller than you when using imperial.  

[laloesch]

1 hour ago, 4twinsJA said:

I liked Arraez/Lopez trade, winner for both teams. Better question is did Twins trade for the right Reds pitcher? 

I think it works.  Losing Arraez has been painful, but I still would have liked to have seen the Twins grab another of their starters and added more players on our end to make a deal happen.  Luzardo or Alcantara (even though he's having a down year due partly due to serious struggles with his changeup).